AI and BIM in the AEC industry and a useful framework for organizations to evaluate where they are and where they need to be.
Deloitte research notes that the window for competitive differentiation in AI is closing quickly and organizations and regions which are not investing stand to fall behind in terms of their share of the estimated $3.9T of business value Gartner predicts will be created by 2022, meanwhile the IDC predicts that worldwide spending on cognitive and Artificial Intelligence systems will reach $77.6B by 2022[3]. This represents a 66.7% Cumulative average growth rate over 2018 values and offers a compelling justification for immediate adoption of AI capabilities across all sectors in Architecture, Engineering and Construction to support significant growth in demand, and build upon the competitive business advantages which Artificial Intelligence can offer.
Artificial Intelligence is positioned to be the most disruptive class of technology the world will experience over the short to medium term. AI isn’t a zero-sum game either; organisations, employees and the community are all positioned to benefit from the advanced capabilities that AI has to offer which typically do not replace, but rather augment current systems and processes. For engineering and construction firms, adopting AI offers substantial returns when investing in the right solutions and fostering new skills and capabilities.
3. Our Path Forward
To move towards AI we need to
think differently from the past, in
the future software will be an
integral role in developing solutions.
We need to get better at cross
discipline integration for non-
traditional approaches.
Algorithms will begin to replace
repetitive functions, before the
more advanced decision making.
AI maturity will complement
existing skills, changing the dynamic
between Designers, Engineers and
Programmers. Multi-skilled staff will
be in high in-demand.
Engineer Drafter
Engineer DrafterDesigner
AI
80s
90s
00s
10s
Source(s): Modified from an original concept by
Craig Lamont (2016)
20s
30sEngineerProgrammerAI
Engineer Designer
Engineer Designer Drafter
ProgrammerAI Engineer
4. How mature are you?
Level 0 Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5
Collaborative
design
Parametric design
for single
functions.
Parametric design
for multiple
disciplines.
Automated design
for a single
discipline.
Automated
Verification for a
single discipline
Fully autonomous
design and
verification for
multiple
disciplines, but a
limited set of
knowledge
domains.
Fully autonomous
design, acting like
a human across a
wide range of
knowledge
domains.
You’re living here You might holiday
here
You could live here
tomorrow
You could live here
in 6 months
You need to be
here in 1~2 years
You need to be
here in 3~5 years
All competitors live
here
Some competitors
live here
Some competitors
live here
Some competitors
are holidaying here
Competitors are
researching a
holiday here
Competitors are
dreaming of living
here
Copyright: Alex Ferguson (2018)
5. What can you do today?
Level 0 Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5
Collaborative
design
Parametric design
for single
functions.
Parametric design
for multiple
disciplines.
Automated design
for a single
discipline.
Automated
Verification for a
single discipline
Fully autonomous
design and
verification for
multiple
disciplines, but a
limited set of
knowledge
domains.
Fully autonomous
design, acting like
a human across a
wide range of
knowledge
domains.
Encourage teams
to look beyond
traditional delivery
approaches
towards Level 1.
Generate
awareness of the
developing toolset
Invest in
parametric design
capabilities.
Strategically hire
individuals with
this expertise.
Leverage existing
expertise to solve
repetitive tasks.
Implement design
management
processes that
require the
extensive use of
parametric design
to deliver
outcomes.
Invest in fast-
tracking research
and development
of automated
design solutions
alongside industry
expertise.
Implement design
management
processes that
require use of
automated design
to deliver
outcomes.
Invest in research
and development
into the use of AI
for design
development
Copyright: Alex Ferguson (2018)
6. What could you do today?
Level 0 Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5
Collaborative
design
Parametric design
for single
functions.
Parametric design
for multiple
disciplines.
Automated design
for a single
discipline.
Automated
Verification for a
single discipline
Fully autonomous
design and
verification for
multiple
disciplines, but a
limited set of
knowledge
domains.
Fully autonomous
design, acting like
a human across a
wide range of
knowledge
domains.
Encourage teams
to look beyond
traditional delivery
approaches
towards Level 1.
Generate
awareness of the
developing toolset
Invest in
parametric design
capabilities.
Strategically hire
individuals with
this expertise.
Leverage existing
expertise to solve
repetitive tasks.
Implement design
management
processes that
require the
extensive use of
parametric design
to deliver
outcomes.
Invest in fast-
tracking research
and development
of automated
design solutions
alongside industry
expertise.
Implement design
management
processes that
require use of
automated design
to deliver
outcomes.
Invest in research
and development
into the use of AI
for design
development
Copyright: Alex Ferguson (2018)
You can see the strength and speed of development of AI in software like AlphaGo, which, in the span of 6-9 months, went from being unable to beat a reasonably good Go player to beating the previous world champion 4-5, the current world champion, then beating everyone while playing simultaneously! Then there was AlphaZero, which shortly after, crushed AlphaGo 100 to Zero and AlphaGo just learnt by playing itself, and it can play basically any game in which you input the rules.
It is literally, read the rules, play the game and be superhuman
It is wishful thinking to believe an AI is not going to replace us. It is capable of vastly more than almost anyone knows.
Source(s): Elon Musk (2018)
AlphaGo – better than a human in less time to train, better than an algorithm which brute forces to check every solution, 2000 years of history of “this is how the game is best played” to determine strategy and AlphaGo plays moves that humans believed to result in certain defeat, only to win. It has mastered the art.
OpenAI – 5 vs 5 competitive gameplay decision making, long term and short term memory, how might this improve our ability to manage risk, identifying strategies for delivering projects in adversarial environments.
BIM 360 IQ – about implementing AI / machine learning algorithms on top of data collected during construction.
Dynamo / Grasshopper – enabling iterative design – effectively creating search heuristics to find optimal designs that meet desired criteria
AI & Architecture – Sketch a building and have it designed for you, input a space constraint and have an AI generate a suitable layout based on your space usage requirements
Generative Design – Automatically lay out multi-discipline MEP services in a service corridor
Question.. How many lines of code do you think it takes to do the last task?