1. It’s Time To Buy Again
“Forget stocks. Economy,
It’s The Don't bet on
gold. After four years of
Stupid
plunging home prices, the
most attractive asset class
in America is housing.”
SOURCE: “Real estate: It’s time to buy again”
Fortune Magazine’s 3/28/11 article written by Shawn Tully
With your host…

2. Regional Housing Summary
Temecula, Murrieta, Lake Elsinore, Menifee, Wildomar, Canyon Lake
Single Family Residential - Full Value Sales
Prepared by GeneWunderlich@srcar.org
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Temecula
# Sales 1,975 1,742 1,141 805 1,569 1,334 1,987 1,902
Median $ $437,159 $484,978 $526,237 $475,522 $337,732 $289,857 $300,234 $301,279
Gross Sales
Revenue $863,389,025 $844,831,676 $600,436,417 $382,795,210 $529,901,508 $386,669,238 $596,564,958 $573,032,658
Murrieta
# Sales 1,679 1,661 1,252 687 2,054 1,666 2,236 1,978
Median $ $432,511 $488,757 $530,912 $473,562 $304,466 $271,107 $270,878 $269,948
Gross Sales
Revenue $726,185,969 $811,825,377 $664,701,824 $325,337,094 $625,373,164 $451,664,262 $605,683,208 $533,957,144
Wildomar
# Sales 361 327 317 218 473 287 398 388
Median $ $393,540 $442,018 $463,920 $435,608 $296,054 $225,739 $220,745 $224,634
Gross Sales
Revenue $142,067,940 $144,539,886 $147,062,640 $94,962,544 $140,033,542 $64,787,093 $87,856,510 $87,157,992
Lake Elsinore
# Sales 914 1,054 700 335 1,154 959 1,387 1,237
Median $ $306,607 $363,543 $431,158 $366,358 $183,819 $179,965 $182,925 $176,353
Gross Sales
Revenue $280,238,798 $383,174,322 $301,810,600 $122,729,930 $212,127,126 $172,586,435 $253,716,975 $218,148,661
Menifee
# Sales 820 763 520 498 1,005 651 1,142 1,672
Median $ $323,138 $364,695 $418,974 $370,671 $259,504 $201,866 $206,414 $185,131
Gross Sales
Revenue $264,973,160 $278,262,285 $217,866,480 $184,594,158 $260,801,520 $131,414,766 $235,724,788 $309,539,032
Canyon Lake
# Sales 468 342 286 133 330 306 379 281
Median $ $443,384 $480,200 $567,071 $548,205 $300,561 $241,416 $251,006 $256,420
Gross Sales
Revenue $207,503,712 $164,228,400 $162,182,306 $72,911,265 $99,185,130 $73,873,296 $95,131,274 $72,054,020

3. Southwest California
8000
Single Family Home Sales
7000 Annual Sales by Region
6 6 7 7
6000 5
2 5 5 4
8
5000
2 8 5 2 5
8 4
4000 7 5 2 9 8
9 2
0
3000 1 2
3
6 6
2000
7
1000 6
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 200 2009 2010 2011
Southwest California
2 2500
2011 SFR Sales
2000
by Sales Type
1500
1000
500
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Temecula Murrieta Lake Elsinore
Menifee Wildomar Canyon Lake

4. 500000
450000 2011 SFR Median Price by
400000 $ Year
$ 4 $
350000 $
4 8 4
300000 3 $ $ $ $
3 9 2 4
250000 8 2 2 2 2
7 4 , 4 8
200000 9 9 8 3 3 3
, 7 , 4 8 5
150000 , 7 3
3 1 9 , , ,
100000 3 ,
6 8 9 7 6
50000 8 8
0 9 0 2
7
2004 2005 2006 2007 200 2009 2 2010 1 2011 8
Southwest California
Monthly Active Listings
Regional median price (Inventory)
has hovered within a 700
$3,700 range for three 600
500
years. Your median 400
home is worth $636 300
200
bucks more than it 100
was two years ago. 0
Yay! 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec
Temecula Murrieta Lake Elsinore Menifee Wildomar Canyon Lake

5. 3
500
9
450 4
1 4
7 2 6
December Demand Chart
400
3 9 5 2
2 2
350 4 4
300 2 1 3 1 1
7 1 1
5 7 3 8 7 1
1 1
250 1 1
5 0 1 3 4 3
200
150
0
9 8
0
0 7
8
9 9 8 8
1
4 7
2
5 0 9 0 9
1 8
SRCAR.ORG/GADBLOG
5 7 7 8 7 2 2 2 3 4 2 2 7
0 3 2 3 4
100 5 . . . . . .
0 7 1
50 6 3 7 4 0 6
0
On Market Pending Closed Days on Months Absorption
(Supply) (Demand) Market Supply rate *
Murrieta Temecula Lake Elsininore
* Absorption rate - # of new listings for the month/# of sold listings for the month
December Market Activity by Sales Type
Standard Sale Bank Owned Short Sale
% of % of Activ % of % of Activ % of % of
Active MKT Sold MKT e MKT Sold MKT e MKT Sold MKT
Facebook.com/ Temecula
Murrieta
180
225
46%
48%
76 45% 55 14%
68 37% 63 13%
30
54
18% 154 39%
29% 176 37%
63 37%
61 33%
SRCARGAD Laker
Elsinore 88 30% 41 38% 35 12% 34 31% 159 54% 28 26%
Menifee 179 38% 59 43% 55 12% 37 27% 224 48% 2 1%
Wildomar 27 34% 10 32% 16 20% 13 42% 35 44% 7 23%
Canyon
Lake 64 59% 12 44% 13 12% 3 11% 29 27% 11 41%
Regional
Average 763 42% 266 40% 237 14% 171 26% 777 42% 172 27%

6. 2012 Preview : State
 Accelerated 3% withholding
 4% flat tax – including services
 Point of sale mandates
 Mortgage interest deduction
 40+ ballot propositions
 Taxes, taxes, Texas

7. Federal Issues – Critical Concerns
• High-cost Loan Limits - expired 10/1/11 (except
FHA)
• Future of Fannie and Freddie? FHA?
• Tax Reform on the horizon
Mortgage Interest Deduction?
Capital Gains?
• QRM (Qualified Residential Mortgage) 20% Down
Is the future of the 30 year mortgage in doubt?

8. 2011: A Year of Economic Wild Cards
It’s Time To Buy Again
Political
Change
on
“Forget stocks. Spikes
Oil Price Don't bet on Capitol
Hill
gold. After four years of
plunging home prices,Arab Spring
Sovereign
the
most inattractive asset class
Debt
Crisis
in America is housing.”
EuroZone
Debt Limit Stock
Ceiling & Market
SOURCE: “Real estate: It’s time to buy again”
Downgrade Magazine’s 3/28/11 articleVolatility Tully
Fortune written by Shawn
of US Debt

9. 2012 – What’s Ahead
• Stable to increasing home sales
• Stable median price
• Declining inventory of resale homes
• Rising rents
• Lack of new home inventory
• Compelling affordability
• Record low interest rates
Pent up demand

10. It’s Time To Buy Again
“Forget stocks. Don't bet on
gold. After four years of
plunging home prices, the
most attractive asset class
in America is housing.”
SOURCE: “Real estate: It’s time to buy again”
Fortune Magazine’s 3/28/11 article written by Shawn Tully