This document provides guidance on scanning for change by identifying and monitoring changes over time. It discusses establishing a broad set of scanning sources, including both mainstream and fringe resources. It also covers applying scanning across categories like trends, events, and choices, as well as tracking the development of ideas and issues over time through implications wheels and other frameworks.

1. Guide to Scanning for Change Prepared by:

2. Scanning ‘Channel’ via: part one part two Learning Content Platforms: Primary Scanning Tool: Scanning 101: Identifying & Monitoring Change

5. "Brand You" Thoughts from Tom Peters – Out-Read the Other Guy http://www.youtube.com/user/LittleBigThings#p/u/23/rijXiwAQnfI If you are looking for inspiration – listen to Tom Peters’ advice: Out read everyone else!

6. S ocial (Demographics / Culture) T E E P Aging of Baby Boomers Mobile Computing New Type of Payment Transactions Distrust of Political Parties Carbon Pricing Schemes Value shifts ‘ Semantic’ Web (‘Smart Linked Data’) Rise of BRIC Nations (Brazil, Russia, India & China) Changes to 501(c)3 Climate Change echnology conomic nvironment olitics Scanning across STEEP Categories First, we must be sure to scan ‘widely’ across different domains. Sit down and imagine the various types of trends, emerging issues and/or events associated with the following STEEP categories (imagine ‘buckets’ that you fill with scan hits!)

7. Trends Choices Events Plausible Future ‘ Most Likely’ Possible Futures Preferred Futures Scanning for Three Types of Change Second, imagine the spectrum of types of change that you might be observe. Trends are long term, gradual changes over time (e.g. aging). Events can be large or small but often lead to discontinuities and alternative futures. And finally Choices are reflected in decisions made by people and organizations that we might serve.

9. Atlantic Magazine ( RSS ) Arts and Letters Daily ( RSS ) BBC World News ( RSS ) Chronicle.edu CNN ( RSS ) CNET (US; Global) ( RSS ) Daily Republic Daily Newspaper Discovery ( RSS ) Economist ( RSS ) Guardian ( RSS ) Harpers ( RSS ) Huffington Post ( RSS ) KPPC (Radio) ( RSS ) SF Gate Chronicle ( RSS ) Times Herald ( RSS ) Time Magazine ( RSS ) Today Show USA Today ( RSS ) Vanity Fair ( RSS ) Washington Post ( RSS ) Wall Street Journal ( RSS ) List of Mainstream Resources The following ‘starter’ list was compiled from resources submitted by workshop participants at ‘Forecasting the Future of California Museums’ held on May 25, 2010 Local broadcast news Lucky Magazine Market Watch ( RSS ) MSNBC ( RSS ) National Geographic ( RSS ) National Public Radio ( RSS ) New York Times ( RSS ) New Yorker ( RSS ) Nightline ( RSS ) PBS Newshour ( RSS ) Public Policy Institute

10. Boing Boing Fast Company Wired Museum 2.0 blog Museum 3.0 blog Center for Future of Museums Dispatches LA Times “Culture Monster” Blog Google News US Census Youtube Paste Magazine Special interest / organization newsletters Make Magazine (DIY Culture) Blackbaud Conferences (Non-museums) London Review and Books Times Lit. Supplement La Republica (Rome) KCSM Jazz Radio Bookstore Magazine Rack! Non fiction books Gizmodo Aldaily.com Books and culture Podcasts: Robert Reich, Things you should know, Cartalk, This American Life, etc. Crooked timber Alistapard.org Trendwatch Chris Brogan Slash Dot (Blog) Download book previews Tyler Cowen’s Blog Grantmaker in the Arts Jon Stewart’s Daily Show Steven Colbert Report Oxford American The Awl (online) Daily KOS LA ist LA Observed Daily Trojan The Superficial Fishbowl LA High Country News Slake Los Angeles TED TV Vogue.com – Absolute Powers by John Powers Poyntner, Remensko Indie movies Metrodad (blog) Local political blogs Nation Pacifica Radio List of Fringe Resources The following ‘starter’ list was compiled from resources submitted by workshop participants at ‘Forecasting the Future of California Museums’ held on May 25, 2010 Orweb.cxlc.org Dailyfireball.net Working Mother Harvard Business Review Ron Heifetz (Adaptive leadership theory) Popular TV Shows Popular Events (state fair, festivals, etc) LA Weekly SSIR Chronicle of Philadelphia Sports radio Seattle PI online The Strangers (Seattle) College alumni, periodicals Life, etc. Snowboarder Magazine Art Journal Marin I.J. CA AA & Design Mamapedia Barry’s Blog Marin Magazine Facebook Twitter LiveJournal Shipoffools.com Politico playbook GOOD magazine Reddit Easy Bay Express Interns! UCLA Urban Sensing program CAISE Exhibitfiles.org Informalsciences.org Kids National Geographic CAM e-News Mashable.com Westmuse Local newspapers Talk radio Historical documents Flyers in Berkeley College radio Concerts Chronicle of Philanthropy Visitors Studies journal Curator The Exhibitionist MMC Leadership theory literature Symphony magazine History Books

11. Limit of Possibility The Future as a ‘Cone of Possibility’ Past Present Limit of Plausibility Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Scenario D Scenario E Scenario F Scanning and the Cone of Plausibility Remember that scanning helps us avoid surprises by reducing the uncertainty of shock related to discontinuities in the world. Scanning wider than mainstream resources helps to fill that ‘cone of plausibility’!

13. Scanning Hit 1 st Order Implication 1 st Order Implication 1 st Order Implication 1 st Order Implication 2 nd Order Implication 2 nd Order Implication 2 nd Order Implication 2 nd Order Implication 2 nd Order Implication 2 nd Order Implication 2 nd Order Implication 2 nd Order Implication 3 rd Order Implication 3 rd Order Implication 3 rd Order Implication 3 rd Order Implication 3 rd Order Implication 3 rd Order Implication 3 rd Order Implication 3 rd Order Implication 3 rd Order Implication 3 rd Order Implication 3 rd Order Implication 3 rd Order Implication 3 rd Order Implication 3 rd Order Implication 3 rd Order Implication 3 rd Order Implication 1 st Order Implication 1 st Order Implication 2 nd Order Implication 2 nd Order Implication 2 nd Order Implication 2 nd Order Implication Scanning & Implications Wheel Eventually you might apply your scan hits to foundation foresight frameworks such as an implications wheel:

14. News Corp buys Digital Reader Company News Corp expands its digital offerings First newspaper to focus on ‘E-Reader’ hardware News Corp purchases Dell News Corp begins to collapse, consolidate, and shut down brands National news becomes more competitive National news mergers result in ‘Big 4’: NYTimes, NewsCorp, NPR, and Google Example Scan Hit & extending implications   Two potential outcomes of this ‘scan hit’ extended into the future

16. Scanning ‘Channel’ via: part one part two Learning Content Platforms: Primary Scanning Tool: Scanning 101: Identifying & Monitoring Change

17. RSS ‘Feed’ Really Simple Syndication By subscribing to ‘RSS’ Feeds Primary Tool The best way to organize all of our scanning resources is to use a free web-based ‘aggregator’ tool called Google Reader. This will allow to organize ‘subscriptions’ to media outlets and also share within a group of friends and colleagues who also use Google Reader. We’ll begin by looking at Google Reader & the notion of RSS.

18. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VSPZ2Uu_X3Y Google Reader Explained Watch this fantastic video by Common Craft that helps explain Google Reader in ‘Plain English’.

19. Watch for logo variations!! RSS Explained Now learn about RSS or Really Simple Syndication And various RSS Platforms that automate feeds:

20. http://www.youtube.com/user/GoogleReaderHelp Google Reader – More Resources The Official YouTube channel for Google Reader can be helpful in learning more about this tool!

21. Visit: google.com/reader Follow ‘ Sign up ’ steps using any email address (e.g. aol.com) or your ‘gmail.com’ Note: there are some benefits to having a ‘gmail’ email linked to Reader for accessing other Google Applications. But it is not necessary. Having Trouble ‘signing up’? Search Youtube.com for: Google Reader Tutorials Google Reader Sign up Dive right in!! Learn by Doing!

23. Google is constantly updating its steps for ‘Following’ People via its various applications including ‘Buzz’ and ‘Reader’. It is best to follow the instructions and be aware of requests to email ALL of your contacts to follow you on Reader. In most cases you will want to select which colleagues (internally/externally) you wish to connect with via Reader. Note: They can only see what items you choose to ‘Share’ Google Reader “ Share Settings” [Public or Private/Select Groups] Google Buzz is a separate ‘sharing’ option that includes Twitter, Facebook, et al including Reader. Learn how to follow People & ‘Share’

24. 3) Share Items Sharing by one-click If you want to ‘Share’ a scan hit with your network (of ‘Followers’) you simply click ‘Share’ (or ‘Unshare’) inside the Google Reader box

25. Finding RSS Feeds As you find new web-based resources you want to look for the orange ‘RSS’ icon. Most websites allow ‘one-click’ subscription (automatically launches Reader). You can also ‘copy link’ and past it in the Google Reader ‘Add Subscription’ line.

26. Easy way to build your RSS List A quick way to build out your scanning resource base is to find ‘curators’ on the web who are passionate about a particular topic. If they list a ‘blog roll’ of sites they endorse you now have access to an ‘A’ list of resources to explore!

27. Google Reader & Twitter RSS Feeds The next section will deal with Twitter! But before we dive into the land of Tweeting, note that you can use Google Reader as a way of pulling in Twitter accounts using…. RSS!

28. Scanning ‘Channel’ via: part one part two Learning Content Platforms: Primary Scanning Tool: Scanning 101: Identifying & Monitoring Change

29. How do you find the right conversations and communities using… Beyond Reader We can also ‘scan’ by watching and joining conversations on the web through Comment sections on blog sites, or through services such as like Twitter. ?

30. The most effective professional applications for Twitter connect people who like to share ideas and insights (not excessive updates on mundane personal aspects of their lives) Demystifying the Value of Tweeting! There are strong feelings of both love and spite towards Twitter! So let’s focus on the professional applications of Tweeting!

32. RT =‘Re-tweet’ @ = Name of Person / Organization “ Hash Tag” (Events, People, Place, Campaign ) Tiny URL (External Links) Tweeting Language: RT, @, Hash Tags, Tiny URLs

33. Back Channel Conversations use ‘tag’ or ‘hash tags’ to allow people (who don’t know each other) but are interesting in a particle event or topic to connect. #museweb, #artsedu, #edu, #museums Hash Tags and ‘Back Channel’ Conversations Searching Twitter based on the #aam10 (LA Conference Hash Tag’) See results on the next page…!!!

34. Note: RT = ‘Re-Tweet’

36. Scanning ‘Channel’ via: part one part two Learning Content Platforms: Primary Scanning Tool: Scanning 101: Identifying & Monitoring Change

37. Learning Content Platforms We can also scan and learn through one of the many emerging platforms for self-directed and social learning via podcasts, videos and slide deck presentations.

38. The challenge of 21st century education will be leveraging the abundant resources of the web – this very long tail of interests – into a “circle of knowledge-building and sharing.” Perhaps, Brown proposes, the formal curriculum of schools will encompass both a minimal core “that gets at the essence of critical thinking,” paired with “passion-based learning,” where kids connect to niche communities on the web, deeply exploring certain subjects. Brown envisions education becoming “an act of re-creation and productive inquiry,” that will form the basis for a new culture of learning. Video Lectures and Panels The next best thing to being in the presence of thought leaders is to watch them via video! While TED Talks have gained popularity there are dozens of video-based content sites on the web to explore!

39. Slide Share / Presentations Some people love to learn by reading through ‘slide decks’ or presentations curated on a popular site called: SlideShare.