Successfully reported this slideshow.
Your SlideShare is downloading. ×

Future of off premise dining an initial perspective - 01 03 22

Ad

The Future of Off-Premise Dining
An Initial View for Debate and Challenge
March 2022

Ad

CONTENTS
This document provides an initial perspective of foresights
impacting the Future of Off-Premise Dining.
Context
F...

Ad

CONTEXT

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Loading in …3
×

Check these out next

1 of 58 Ad
1 of 58 Ad
Advertisement

More Related Content

More from Future Agenda (20)

Advertisement

Future of off premise dining an initial perspective - 01 03 22

  1. 1. The Future of Off-Premise Dining An Initial View for Debate and Challenge March 2022
  2. 2. CONTENTS This document provides an initial perspective of foresights impacting the Future of Off-Premise Dining. Context Foresights for the Future Questions and Feedback
  3. 3. CONTEXT
  4. 4. Off-Premise Dining Off-Premise Dining is defined as food that is prepared away from home that the consumer receives ready-to-eat immediately, and that is consumed away from a restaurant.
  5. 5. The Future of Asthma Care Programme Ambition This collaborative project, supported by McCain, is looking out to 2030 to explore and define how the future of Off-Premise Dining may evolve. Anonymised collated views and synthesis will be shared with all participants. As we look out to the future of off-premise dining in 10 years time, what change is predictable, what is probable, possible and what is uncertain? How will shifts in the the external world impact the future of off-premise dining?
  6. 6. Programme Objective To highlight and balance alternative expert views to provide an impartial, balanced synthesis of how the future of Off-Premise Dining may play out.
  7. 7. Use of Document This is a provocation to stimulate discussion and debate with more stakeholders to help build a richer, deeper view of the future of Off-Premise Dining.
  8. 8. Source of Views This stimulus is based on insights from interviews, the Future Agenda database and additional desk research. The next phase will involve expert workshops in three regions: The Americas, Asia and EMEA.
  9. 9. Looking Backwards Off-Premise dining, and the players involved, have evolved significantly over the last decade. 2022 2011 2013 2016 2012 First Amazon Drone Delivery Doordash acquires Chowbotics Covid-19 Pandemic 2017 KFC China launches ‘Smile to Pay’ First commercial 3d printer for food
  10. 10. Accelerated Change The restrictions and fears of Covid lockdowns have accelerated a shift toward Off-Premise dining that was already under way. Sharp growth across all Off-Premise categories Sharp rise in number of digital platforms, and use of them Renewed consumer focus on health and hygiene Shifting loyalty landscape with new platforms, apps and brands Covid Acceleration and consolidation “64% of consumers do not plan to return to their pre-pandemic habits of dining in restaurants within the next six months” – Deloitte, Dec 2021 Underlying trends “What’s the point in dining out when we can have whatever meal we crave delivered to our homes as we watch movies on our giant flatscreen TVs? Credit Netflix and Amazon for shifting consumer habits in a way that is significantly affecting the restaurant industry.” - Forbes 2018 (PRE-COVID) Digital aggregation, ordering and payments disruption in Off-Premise Grocery disruption (Ocado, GoPuff, Amazon etc.) Changing consumer behaviours and attitudes toward Off-Premise Big data collection and analysis (consumer, logistics, performance etc.)
  11. 11. Looking Forward Looking ahead we need to explore and understand how multiple factors may impact the growth and development of Off-Premise dining. Off-Premise Dining Consumer attitudes Consumer Behaviour Robotics and Automation Big Data Digital Experiences Regulation Supply Chain Disruptions Environmental Sustainability Food Tech Formats ...
  12. 12. 43 FORESIGHTS FOR THE FUTURE
  13. 13. Digital Restaurant Experiences Restaurants use digital technologies to create virtual dining experiences bringing immersive content and social connection to Off-Premise occasions.
  14. 14. Viral Menus Off-Premise orders are decoupled from traditional restaurants. On-demand deliveries from ghost kitchens enable chefs, influencers and/or data platforms to rapidly capitalise on digital virality.
  15. 15. Data Driven Flavour Big datasets of consumer feedback, attitudes, behaviours and preferences drive machine learning and AI in a race to develop perfect flavours and experiences for each dining occasion to maximise the value per transaction.
  16. 16. Health Enhancing Food Consumer and political agendas align around the need to address unhealthy diets. Food becomes a major focal point for both healthier choices and activism. High salt, high sugar & high fat foods are targeted by consumers and regulators.
  17. 17. The Human Touch As digital and data-driven experiences consolidate and perfect everything from supply chains and food prep, through to ordering and delivery, those offering a human touch or more social experience will stand out.
  18. 18. Food Waste Regulation Addressing food waste becomes a corporate and policy imperative driving innovations in supply chain monitoring, circular food production and greater regulation, affecting consumption patterns e.g. smaller portion sizes.
  19. 19. Hybrid Working Working from home, or in satellite shared-spaces, away from centralised offices, changes food consumption patterns. Breakfast and lunch deliveries increase and the opportunity for home-prep boosts grocery on demand.
  20. 20. Demographic Shifts Infrastructures and supply chains in markets such as sub-Saharan Africa reach greater maturity. Business models and consumer behaviours, in a fast-growing population, leapfrog established patterns of market growth.
  21. 21. High-Functioning Packaging Innovative packaging solutions allow new classes and types of food to be added to the menu of consumer choices for off-premises dining.
  22. 22. Autonomous Delivery Robots Consumer demand for food delivery continues to grow as autonomous robots and drones reduce both the cost of serving the last mile and the time between food preparation and consumption.
  23. 23. Just-in-Time Grocery The traditional grocery model of selling items for consumers to assemble fades. Grocers increasingly provide meal solutions for their customers, wherever and whenever they want it and are ready for it.
  24. 24. Platform Power Superapps integrate functions in single platforms: From browsing kitchens, and menus, to booking, ordering and paying. They take an increasing share of the food consumption value chain - and others (e.g. alcohol, pharmaceutical etc.)
  25. 25. Smart Hot Vending With many traditional vending machine problems solved, smart vending innovations bring new consumer value propositions around healthier eating, convenience, personalisation and location to the Off-Premise landscape.
  26. 26. Kitchen Robotics Driven by consumer uptake of digital ordering and payment platforms that are dissociated from restaurants; automated food preparation entices restaurateurs with the possibility of enhanced speed, scale, hygiene and precision.
  27. 27. Market and Loyalty Fragmented Post-pandemic dining patterns are likely to reflect other digitally disrupted markets with a fragmented landscape providing greater consumer choice and a shift in loyalties away from brands and towards the digital platforms.
  28. 28. Data Driven Efficiencies Backstage As for consumers, digital platforms providing major efficiencies to Off-Premise brands through real-time aggregated data from different sales channels and throughout supply chains, disrupt traditional loyalties and relationships.
  29. 29. Priorities vs. Costs of Living Rising costs of living focus food and beverage choices on price and value. Big value-based brands continue to grow Off-Premise market share despite consumer concerns around health and sustainability.
  30. 30. Data-enhanced Consumers Consumers that may lack knowledge of how to cook with different ingredients at home, are empowered by digital data platforms to make better choices around flavour, health and sustainability at the point of ordering.
  31. 31. Virtual Brands Virtual brands begin to define the Off-Premise space by allowing kitchens to diversify menus and reach new market segments and separating restaurants and chefs from the economics of bricks and mortar.
  32. 32. Growing Customer Expectations Customers will expect more from food-delivery services. Speed, accuracy, variety and restaurant-quality meals, even after transit time, will begin to sift winners from losers in the Off-Premise space.
  33. 33. On/Off-Premise Speedy, personalised food delivery, coupled with cityscape ambitions and emboldened independents, leads to a proliferation of community eating spaces that mirror traditional food courts but with more choice / creativity.
  34. 34. East Asian Innovation Less constrained by Western signifiers of good food, and with strong traditions of street food, innovation and accelerated digital adoption, East Asia leads devising new Off-Premise business models.
  35. 35. New Palettes Consumer demand for sustainable foods, healthy foods and tasty deliverable foods are driving innovation; from less palatable insect-based food, through plant-based meats appetisers. Palettes are likely to change.
  36. 36. Dark Kitchen Dominance Dark kitchens become the dominant model to cook the right food in the right places to satisfy off-premise consumer demand, especially away from urban centers. Brands come and go, products evolve, but kitchen operators remain.
  37. 37. Sustainable Off-Premise Packaging The primacy of convenience gives way to concerns over the tangible environmental impacts of increased Off-Premise dining. Fast moving brands evolve quickly to address consumer and regulatory demands.
  38. 38. Conversational Commerce Consumers increasingly use their voice assistant to order food. One implication is a growing fight for brand share of plate.
  39. 39. Branded Experience Packaging Innovative branded food packaging concepts are increasingly adopted as a means to deliver shareable, branded experiences into the heart of Off-Premise dining consumer experiences.
  40. 40. Personalised Taste The next iteration of data-driven flavour development, is the use of new technologies to deliver personalised gustatory experiences at the moment of consumption itself.
  41. 41. Blurring Categories Traditional dining and restaurant categories break down in the face of constant innovation in the industry, changing cityscapes and consumer exploration. This forces a more consumer-centric view of consumption.
  42. 42. Transparency and Misinformation Consumers demand absolute transparency around health impacts, sustainability, price, provenance etc. At the same time, the crisis in trust around information leaves a moral maze for brands.
  43. 43. VR/AR Chef Training Chefs are trained to prepare different kinds of meals using VR, enabling brands to launch new kinds of products more quickly in more locations.
  44. 44. 15-Minute Cities Beyond headline ambitions of communities in which all necessary amenities lie within a 15-minute walk radius; the movement incorporates greater community consciousness, integrating healthy activities and local, social interactions.
  45. 45. Food Inequality As the food industry prioritises food personalisation for the haves, the have-nots, with limited access to technology, healthcare and good food, face a deterioration of food security and quality.
  46. 46. Guided Gourmet Kits The sweet spot between fast-food convenience and home-cooked health and taste is met by meal kits that leverage digital communications synchronised with delivery (e.g. ‘turn oven on now’) to provide genuinely fast prep times.
  47. 47. Hyper Transparency Consumer and sector demand for end to end food provenance and associated data expands to include the entire journey from soil and farmer to preparation and the final mile.
  48. 48. Food as a Service Convenience, health and sustainability considerations, together with omics data, drive the emergence of individually tailored meals based on a personal nutrient prescription. At home robots or food printers accelerate the transition.
  49. 49. Viva Locavore As planetary pressures increase, so too does the social pressure to do and be seen to do the right thing. People increasingly choose diets consisting only, or principally, of locally grown or produced food.
  50. 50. True Cost Pressure to account for the true cost of food and food systems on economies, environment and society increases. Hidden impacts, from diet-related disease to biodiversity loss come into sharper focus.
  51. 51. Patchwork Regulation Regulators continue to struggle with a fast-evolving tech landscape and gig work organised through digital platforms. A patchwork of regulatory regimes emerges, affecting prices and business models in different Off-Premise markets.
  52. 52. Algorithm Accountability The right to algorithmic transparency emerges first in relation to gig worker's rights. This is followed by consumer rights activism around the right to understand recommendation engines, and hidden uses of personal data.
  53. 53. Faster Payments As the payments eco-system continues to evolve at pace, b2b and b2c transaction costs continue to decline, opening up new opportunities for smaller suppliers and allowing brands to engage more directly with customers.
  54. 54. Split Restaurants Restaurants choose between dine-in or delivery customers. Those choosing both are forced to price differentially to cover delivery costs and margin.
  55. 55. Frozen Out Access to cheap, convenient ready-to-eat/cook meals reduces demand for meal assembly from the frozen-aisle; sustainability questions and market innovations put pressure on over-use of refrigerated supply chains.
  56. 56. The Future of Asthma Care QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS
  57. 57. The Future of Asthma Care YOUR FEEDBACK To build an informed, global perspective we would very much welcome you comments. What do you agree with? What do you disagree with? What is missing from this view? What will be the key emerging challenges to be addressed over the next decade?
  58. 58. Future Agenda 84 Brook Street London W1K 5EH +44 203 0088 141 www.futureagenda.org | @futureagenda

×