1. The Future of Off-Premise Dining
An Initial View for Debate and Challenge
March 2022

2. CONTENTS
This document provides an initial perspective of foresights
impacting the Future of Off-Premise Dining.
Context
Foresights for the Future
Questions and Feedback

3. CONTEXT

4. Off-Premise Dining
Off-Premise Dining is defined as food that is prepared away
from home that the consumer receives ready-to-eat immediately,
and that is consumed away from a restaurant.

5. The Future of Asthma Care
Programme Ambition
This collaborative project, supported by McCain, is looking out to 2030 to
explore and define how the future of Off-Premise Dining may evolve.
Anonymised collated views and synthesis will be shared with all participants.
As we look out to the future of off-premise
dining in 10 years time, what change is
predictable, what is probable, possible and
what is uncertain?
How will shifts in the the external world impact the
future of off-premise dining?

6. Programme Objective
To highlight and balance alternative expert views to provide an impartial,
balanced synthesis of how the future of Off-Premise Dining may play out.

7. Use of Document
This is a provocation to stimulate discussion and debate with more stakeholders
to help build a richer, deeper view of the future of Off-Premise Dining.

8. Source of Views
This stimulus is based on insights from interviews, the Future Agenda database
and additional desk research. The next phase will involve expert workshops in
three regions: The Americas, Asia and EMEA.

9. Looking Backwards
Off-Premise dining, and the players involved,
have evolved significantly over the last decade.
2022
2011
2013
2016
2012
First Amazon Drone
Delivery
Doordash acquires
Chowbotics
Covid-19 Pandemic
2017
KFC China launches
‘Smile to Pay’
First commercial 3d
printer for food

10. Accelerated Change
The restrictions and fears of Covid lockdowns have accelerated a shift toward
Off-Premise dining that was already under way.
Sharp growth across all Off-Premise categories
Sharp rise in number of digital platforms, and use of them
Renewed consumer focus on health and hygiene
Shifting loyalty landscape with new platforms, apps and brands
Covid Acceleration
and consolidation
“64% of consumers do not plan to
return to their pre-pandemic
habits of dining in restaurants
within the next six months” –
Deloitte, Dec 2021
Underlying trends
“What’s the point in dining out
when we can have whatever meal
we crave delivered to our homes as
we watch movies on our giant
flatscreen TVs? Credit Netflix and
Amazon for shifting consumer
habits in a way that is significantly
affecting the restaurant industry.”
- Forbes 2018 (PRE-COVID)
Digital aggregation, ordering and payments disruption in Off-Premise
Grocery disruption (Ocado, GoPuff, Amazon etc.)
Changing consumer behaviours and attitudes toward Off-Premise
Big data collection and analysis (consumer, logistics, performance etc.)

11. Looking Forward
Looking ahead we need to explore and understand how multiple factors may
impact the growth and development of Off-Premise dining.
Off-Premise
Dining
Consumer
attitudes
Consumer
Behaviour
Robotics and
Automation
Big Data
Digital
Experiences
Regulation
Supply Chain
Disruptions
Environmental
Sustainability
Food Tech
Formats
...

12. 43 FORESIGHTS FOR THE FUTURE

13. Digital Restaurant Experiences
Restaurants use digital technologies to create virtual dining experiences
bringing immersive content and social connection to Off-Premise occasions.

14. Viral Menus
Off-Premise orders are decoupled from traditional restaurants.
On-demand deliveries from ghost kitchens enable chefs, influencers
and/or data platforms to rapidly capitalise on digital virality.

15. Data Driven Flavour
Big datasets of consumer feedback, attitudes, behaviours and preferences drive
machine learning and AI in a race to develop perfect flavours and experiences
for each dining occasion to maximise the value per transaction.

16. Health Enhancing Food
Consumer and political agendas align around the need to address unhealthy
diets. Food becomes a major focal point for both healthier choices and activism.
High salt, high sugar & high fat foods are targeted by consumers and regulators.

17. The Human Touch
As digital and data-driven experiences consolidate and perfect everything
from supply chains and food prep, through to ordering and delivery,
those offering a human touch or more social experience will stand out.

18. Food Waste Regulation
Addressing food waste becomes a corporate and policy imperative driving
innovations in supply chain monitoring, circular food production and greater
regulation, affecting consumption patterns e.g. smaller portion sizes.

19. Hybrid Working
Working from home, or in satellite shared-spaces, away from centralised offices,
changes food consumption patterns. Breakfast and lunch deliveries increase
and the opportunity for home-prep boosts grocery on demand.

20. Demographic Shifts
Infrastructures and supply chains in markets such as sub-Saharan Africa
reach greater maturity. Business models and consumer behaviours, in a
fast-growing population, leapfrog established patterns of market growth.

21. High-Functioning Packaging
Innovative packaging solutions allow new classes and types of food to be
added to the menu of consumer choices for off-premises dining.

22. Autonomous Delivery Robots
Consumer demand for food delivery continues to grow as autonomous
robots and drones reduce both the cost of serving the last mile
and the time between food preparation and consumption.

23. Just-in-Time Grocery
The traditional grocery model of selling items for consumers to assemble fades.
Grocers increasingly provide meal solutions for their customers,
wherever and whenever they want it and are ready for it.

24. Platform Power
Superapps integrate functions in single platforms: From browsing kitchens, and
menus, to booking, ordering and paying. They take an increasing share of the
food consumption value chain - and others (e.g. alcohol, pharmaceutical etc.)

25. Smart Hot Vending
With many traditional vending machine problems solved, smart vending
innovations bring new consumer value propositions around healthier eating,
convenience, personalisation and location to the Off-Premise landscape.

26. Kitchen Robotics
Driven by consumer uptake of digital ordering and payment platforms that are
dissociated from restaurants; automated food preparation entices restaurateurs
with the possibility of enhanced speed, scale, hygiene and precision.

27. Market and Loyalty Fragmented
Post-pandemic dining patterns are likely to reflect other digitally disrupted
markets with a fragmented landscape providing greater consumer choice and a
shift in loyalties away from brands and towards the digital platforms.

28. Data Driven Efficiencies Backstage
As for consumers, digital platforms providing major efficiencies to Off-Premise
brands through real-time aggregated data from different sales channels and
throughout supply chains, disrupt traditional loyalties and relationships.

29. Priorities vs. Costs of Living
Rising costs of living focus food and beverage choices on price and value. Big
value-based brands continue to grow Off-Premise market share despite
consumer concerns around health and sustainability.

30. Data-enhanced Consumers
Consumers that may lack knowledge of how to cook with different ingredients
at home, are empowered by digital data platforms to make better choices
around flavour, health and sustainability at the point of ordering.

31. Virtual Brands
Virtual brands begin to define the Off-Premise space by allowing kitchens to
diversify menus and reach new market segments and separating restaurants
and chefs from the economics of bricks and mortar.

32. Growing Customer Expectations
Customers will expect more from food-delivery services.
Speed, accuracy, variety and restaurant-quality meals, even after transit
time, will begin to sift winners from losers in the Off-Premise space.

33. On/Off-Premise
Speedy, personalised food delivery, coupled with cityscape ambitions and
emboldened independents, leads to a proliferation of community eating spaces
that mirror traditional food courts but with more choice / creativity.

34. East Asian Innovation
Less constrained by Western signifiers of good food, and with strong
traditions of street food, innovation and accelerated digital adoption,
East Asia leads devising new Off-Premise business models.

35. New Palettes
Consumer demand for sustainable foods, healthy foods and tasty deliverable
foods are driving innovation; from less palatable insect-based food, through
plant-based meats appetisers. Palettes are likely to change.

36. Dark Kitchen Dominance
Dark kitchens become the dominant model to cook the right food in the right places
to satisfy off-premise consumer demand, especially away from urban centers.
Brands come and go, products evolve, but kitchen operators remain.

37. Sustainable Off-Premise Packaging
The primacy of convenience gives way to concerns over the tangible
environmental impacts of increased Off-Premise dining. Fast moving
brands evolve quickly to address consumer and regulatory demands.

38. Conversational Commerce
Consumers increasingly use their voice assistant to order food.
One implication is a growing fight for brand share of plate.

39. Branded Experience Packaging
Innovative branded food packaging concepts are increasingly adopted
as a means to deliver shareable, branded experiences into the
heart of Off-Premise dining consumer experiences.

40. Personalised Taste
The next iteration of data-driven flavour development, is the use
of new technologies to deliver personalised gustatory experiences
at the moment of consumption itself.

41. Blurring Categories
Traditional dining and restaurant categories break down in the face of constant
innovation in the industry, changing cityscapes and consumer exploration.
This forces a more consumer-centric view of consumption.

42. Transparency and Misinformation
Consumers demand absolute transparency around health impacts,
sustainability, price, provenance etc. At the same time, the crisis in trust
around information leaves a moral maze for brands.

43. VR/AR Chef Training
Chefs are trained to prepare different kinds of meals using VR, enabling
brands to launch new kinds of products more quickly in more locations.

44. 15-Minute Cities
Beyond headline ambitions of communities in which all necessary amenities lie
within a 15-minute walk radius; the movement incorporates greater community
consciousness, integrating healthy activities and local, social interactions.

45. Food Inequality
As the food industry prioritises food personalisation for the haves,
the have-nots, with limited access to technology, healthcare and
good food, face a deterioration of food security and quality.

46. Guided Gourmet Kits
The sweet spot between fast-food convenience and home-cooked health and taste
is met by meal kits that leverage digital communications synchronised with delivery
(e.g. ‘turn oven on now’) to provide genuinely fast prep times.

47. Hyper Transparency
Consumer and sector demand for end to end food provenance
and associated data expands to include the entire journey
from soil and farmer to preparation and the final mile.

48. Food as a Service
Convenience, health and sustainability considerations, together with omics
data, drive the emergence of individually tailored meals based on a personal
nutrient prescription. At home robots or food printers accelerate the transition.

49. Viva Locavore
As planetary pressures increase, so too does the social pressure to do and
be seen to do the right thing. People increasingly choose diets
consisting only, or principally, of locally grown or produced food.

50. True Cost
Pressure to account for the true cost of food and food systems on
economies, environment and society increases. Hidden impacts,
from diet-related disease to biodiversity loss come into sharper focus.

51. Patchwork Regulation
Regulators continue to struggle with a fast-evolving tech landscape and gig
work organised through digital platforms. A patchwork of regulatory regimes
emerges, affecting prices and business models in different Off-Premise markets.

52. Algorithm Accountability
The right to algorithmic transparency emerges first in relation to gig worker's
rights. This is followed by consumer rights activism around the right to
understand recommendation engines, and hidden uses of personal data.

53. Faster Payments
As the payments eco-system continues to evolve at pace, b2b and b2c
transaction costs continue to decline, opening up new opportunities for smaller
suppliers and allowing brands to engage more directly with customers.

54. Split Restaurants
Restaurants choose between dine-in or delivery customers. Those choosing
both are forced to price differentially to cover delivery costs and margin.

55. Frozen Out
Access to cheap, convenient ready-to-eat/cook meals reduces demand for
meal assembly from the frozen-aisle; sustainability questions and market
innovations put pressure on over-use of refrigerated supply chains.

56. The Future of Asthma Care
QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS

57. The Future of Asthma Care
YOUR FEEDBACK
To build an informed, global perspective we would very much welcome you comments.
What do you agree with? What do you disagree with? What is missing from this view?
What will be the key emerging challenges to be addressed over the next decade?

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www.futureagenda.org | @futureagenda