3. • Now that all regions of the world have felt the devastating effects of the coronavirus, some of the negative
factors have been priced into the markets. However, the future is far from clear with uncertainty looming
around how quickly the world economy will be able to recover.
• So far, much of the economic data coming out after the crisis has spread throughout the globe has been
supportive of risk-on sentiment.
US employment better than expected, but still bad
• Much of the U.S. data has been better than estimates, but comes amidst the backdrop of historically low
expectations and record high unemployment around the world. In the largest economy in the world, the
June 2020 jobs report showed non-farm payrolls rising by 4.8 million compared to an expected 2.9
million.
• The unemployment rate fell to 11.1% which is significantly better than the expected 12.4%. However, this
good news comes in the face of an unemployment rate that had just recently hit a record high of 14.7%.
4. • Positive economic data from the U.S. will help to quicken the declining dollar since this currency has
been used as a safe-haven asset for investors. Forex traders will want to be on the lookout for significant
potential for profit in shorting USD. Finding a reputable broker will empower investors to not miss out
on this opportunity.
Rest of world shows signs of recovery, uncertainty still remains
• The market seems to be somewhat optimistic on China’s recovery with exports looking to be better than
expected. In the U.K. the Bank of England is signaling optimism on the recovery in a recent statement
from Governor Andrew Bailey.
• Germany’s Economy Ministry has also noted signs of recovery in that country’s economy, speculating
that German industrial production may have hit a bottom.
• On the other hand, there is still much uncertainty as to how and when the coronavirus crisis will be
resolved. Unexpected bad news on this front can reverse the risk-on sentiment, turning the markets
more cautious.
5. Covid-19 resurging in some locations
• As of now, some areas of the U.S. which had been thought to have successfully suppressed the virus are
now seeing worrying resurgence of infections. California has recently shut down parts of its economy
which had previously begun to reopen.
• Florida is now in the midst of a serious emergency with having recently reported 269,811 cases of
infection in a single day, which was a new record for that metric. Hospitals in Arizona are reportedly
now being overrun due to Covid-19 cases.
• Continually worsening conditions regarding coronavirus in the U.S. and worldwide will continue to
weigh on risk-on assets, such as the South African rand and the British pound. Also, if bad news
eventually leads to panic in the markets this could result in a rush into safe-haven assets.
• In this case, Forex traders can earn plenty of profit going long on these safe-haven assets, such as the US
dollar and the Japanese yen.
6. • One potential way to maximize on a sudden turn in the markets to a risk-off mood is by shorting a risk-
on asset and going long a safe-haven currency. For instance, a Forex trader may consider selling the
GBP/JPY with an account from a trustworthy broker.
Hope for vaccine
• One other factor that traders should be aware of is the potential for the development of a vaccine for
Covid-19. There has recently been some positive news regarding vaccines with two experimental
vaccines receiving “fast track” designation from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.
• The two drugs are being jointly-developed by U.S. pharmaceutical firm Pfizer and German
biotechnology company BioNTech.
• These two vaccines, BNT162b1 and BNT152b2, are the furthest along in the process towards being
allowed for the public. The two firms are projecting they will be able to provide 100 million doses by the
end of 2021.
7. • There are a minimum of four drugs currently being tested in the U.S. and Germany. On the other hand,
whether or not any of these drugs are eventually brought to market is far from guaranteed.
• Potential problems from clinical trials can easily slow down a drug’s development or completely derail
the project.
• Regardless of what happens with the potential vaccines, the coronavirus or the economic recovery, since
a reputable Forex broker will allow you to go both long and short in the currency markets there will
always be an opportunity to earn profit.