Slides utilisés par l'économiste Peter De Keyzer (managing Partner de Growth Inc.) lors du webinaire qu'il a animé pour le Forum financier, le 26 juin 2020.

1. Hope for the best,
prepare for the worst
Peter De Keyzer
Chief Economist & Managing Partner

2. The picture looks bleak

3. What about the bigger picture ?

5. Putting the crisis in perspective

6. Gigantic economic impact

7. • V shaped recovery =>
• No damage to the supply side
• No second-round crises
• U shaped recovery =>
• Supply side damaged (bankruptcies, higher unemployment, broken business models)
• No second round crises
• L shaped recovery =>
• Supply side damaged
• Second round crises (banking, eurozone, protectionism, political,…)
Recovery: V, U or L ?

8. Impact on debt and deficit

9. Debt explosion

10. Deluge of support measures
Bron: Brueghel
Think tank

11. Divergence in Europe

12. Pandemics 101

13. Publication date: 26th January 2020
First diagnosis: we panicked much too late

14. We panicked much too late

15. A small word on infection cycles

16. • Recent insights from senior advisor at CEPI – Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness
Innovations
• Need 5 billion doses (10 billion on the safe side) – largely exceeds production capacity
of the big4 (GSK, Sanofi, Pfizer, J&J)
• Eg. GSK can do 750million per year
• Lack of coordination on EU-level: tracking, tracing, measures, etc…
• Second wave will come
• Nationalistic behaviour versus need for global coordination…
• Antivaxing…. 1/3 of French people have indicated they will refuse a vaccine
Don’t hope for a quick vaccine

17. “Lets return to normal”

18. Some events might seem temporary… but they change the calculus
forever…
“Let’s return to normal”

19. Looking back from the year 2025…

20. • 1,5 meter society
• Tracing apps
• Loss of privacy
• Bigger government
• Stress on societal cohesion
• Stress on mental health
• … but also new business models, new ways of working, new products, new ways
of catering to people’s needs.
The New Normal

21. QUICK VACCINE UNCHANGED BEHAVIOUR NO SECOND ROUND EFFECTS
Which future scenario?

22. Change is inevitable

23. 1. Expect the unexpected
2. Accelerate tech, digital, AI,…
3. Imagine the future of work and adjust
4. Resilience becomes more important than efficiency
5. Think first and be first
Accelerated entry into a new normal

24. Quid Belgium?

25. Make or break
§ Before the crisis – bad equilibrium
• Debt above 100% of GDP
• Budget deficits
• Insufficient reforms
• Lack of political cohesion
§ After the crisis – 3 scenarios
• The good Phoenix from the ashes Sweden in the 90’s
• The bad Slow motion crash Italy since the 2000’s
• The ugly Malgoverno Belgium in the 80’s
§ Go for investments, digitalisation, entrepreneurship, more people at work,…

26. Back to normal

27. Change is inevitable

28. Conclusion
• Weakest countries are hit the hardest
• Lack of European policy response
• ECB has to do the heavy lifting
• Power grab by the biggest countries in Europe
• Lot of uncertainty regarding virus outlook

29. Q & A

30. Growth Inc_
PETER DE KEYZER
Managing Partner
peter@growth-inc.be
☎ +32 497 76 93 93
@PeterDeKeyzer