Finatech - 2009 Global Economic Outlook
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Morocco's leading technology group offers its 2009 Global Economic Outlook, with specifics on technology
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Finatech - 2009 Global Economic Outlook
- 3. THE GLOOM & DOOM… California unemployment jumps to 8.2%, third-highest in the U.S. The state's unemployment rate is the highest in 14 years; 10:58 AM PST, November 21, 2008
- 4. JUNK DEBT HAVEN’T WE SEEN THIS DOOM BEFORE ??? Oct 13, 2008 Nov 19, 1973 OIL Nov 2, 1987 JUNK BONDS Sept 22, 2000 JUNK EQUITY
- 5. A CRISIS FUELED BY A REAL ESTATE BUBBLE
- 6. REAL ESTATE DEBT IS STILL BACKED BY A HEAVILY INDEBTED CONSUMER (WHO WILL NOT CONSUME AS BEFORE) 1929 depression – 2.6x 2008 recession – 3x 3X IN 20 YEARS
- 7. THE REALISTIC CURVE Dow at 8500
- 8. AND U.S. GDP IS ON A GOOD PATH TO POSITIVE RECOVERY IN 2H09, EPS IN 1H10, CONSUMER IN 2H10…EUROPE A LAGGARD
- 9. BUT THIS RECOVERY WILL BE LONG 3-5 quarters…maybe longer
- 10. THE GOOD NEWS FOR TECHNOLOGY
- 11. TECH SPENDING LESS VOLATILE THAN GENERAL ECONOMY
- 12. TECH STOCKS RECOVER MUCH FASTER THAN THE GENERAL ECONOMY