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El Paso Corporation




Analyst Meeting
    April 16, 2008
Cautionary Statement Regarding
Forward-looking Statements
This presentation includes forward-looking statements and projections, made in reliance on the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation
Reform Act of 1995. The company has made every reasonable effort to ensure that the information and assumptions on which these statements and
projections are based are current, reasonable, and complete. However, a variety of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from the
projections, anticipated results or other expectations expressed in this presentation, including, without limitation, changes in unaudited and/or unreviewed
financial information; our ability to implement and achieve our objectives in the 2008 plan, including earnings and cash flow targets; the effects of any
changes in accounting rules and guidance; our ability to meet production volume targets in our E&P segment; uncertainties and potential consequences
associated with the outcome of governmental investigations, including, without limitation, those related to the reserve revisions; outcome of litigation; our
ability to comply with the covenants in our various financing documents; our ability to obtain necessary governmental approvals for proposed pipeline
projects and our ability to successfully construct and operate such projects; the risks associated with recontracting of transportation commitments by our
pipelines; regulatory uncertainties associated with pipeline rate cases; actions by the credit rating agencies; the successful close of our financing
transactions; our ability to successfully exit the energy trading business; our ability to close our announced asset sales on a timely basis; changes in
commodity prices and basis differentials for oil, natural gas, and power and relevant basis spreads; inability to realize anticipated synergies and cost
savings associated with restructurings and divestitures on a timely basis; general economic and weather conditions in geographic regions or markets
served by the company and its affiliates, or where operations of the company and its affiliates are located; the uncertainties associated with governmental
regulation; political and currency risks associated with international operations of the company and its affiliates; competition; and other factors described
in the company’s (and its affiliates’) Securities and Exchange Commission filings. While the company makes these statements and projections in good
faith, neither the company nor its management can guarantee that anticipated future results will be achieved. Reference must be made to those filings for
additional important factors that may affect actual results. The company assumes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking
statements made herein or any other forward-looking statements made by the company, whether as a result of new information, future events, or
otherwise.

Certain of the production information in this presentation include the production attributable to El Paso’s 49 percent interest in Four Star Oil & Gas
Company (“Four Star”). El Paso’s Supplemental Oil and Gas disclosures, which are included in its Annual Report on Form 10-K, reflect its proportionate
share of the proved reserves of Four Star separate from its consolidated proved reserves. In addition, the proved reserves attributable to its proportionate
share of Four Star represent estimates prepared by El Paso and not those of Four Star.

Cautionary Note to U.S. Investors—The United States Securities and Exchange Commission permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to
disclose only proved reserves that a company has demonstrated by actual production or conclusive formation tests to be economically and legally
producible under existing economic and operating conditions. We use certain terms in this presentation that the SEC's guidelines strictly prohibit us from
including in filings with the SEC. U.S. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosures regarding proved reserves in this presentation and the
disclosures contained in our Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2006, File No. 001-14365, available by writing; Investor Relations, El Paso
Corporation, 1001 Louisiana St., Houston, TX 77002. You can also obtain this form from the SEC by calling 1-800-SEC-0330.

Non-GAAP Financial Measures
This presentation includes certain Non-GAAP financial measures as defined in the SEC’s Regulation G. More information on these Non-GAAP financial
measures, including EBIT, EBITDA, cash costs, net capital, net debt, and the required reconciliations under Regulation G, are set forth in this presentation
or in the appendix hereto. El Paso defines Resource Potential as subsurface volumes of oil and natural gas the company believes may be present and
eventually recoverable. The company utilizes a net, geologic risk mean to represent this estimated ultimate recoverable amount.




                                                                                                                                                       2
Schedule
Estimated Time
     (EST)
  8:00 a.m.      Introduction
                    Bruce Connery …….. Vice President, Investor & Media Relations
                    Doug Foshee ………. President and Chief Executive Officer
  8:15 a.m.      Macro Outlook
                   Byron Wright ………. Vice President, Corporate Development
  8:35 a.m.      Pipelines
                   Jim Yardley ………… President, Pipeline Group
  9:10 a.m.      Q&A
  9:30 a.m.      Break
  9:50 a.m.      Exploration & Production
                   Brent Smolik ……….. President, Exploration & Production
 11:20 a.m.      Q&A
 11:40 a.m.      Marketing Book Update & Financial Overview
                  Mark Leland ……….. Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
 11:50 a.m.      Summary
 11:55 a.m.      Q&A
                                                                                    3
Defining Our Purpose




       El Paso Corporation provides
       natural gas and related energy
      products in a safe, efficient, and
            dependable manner




                                           4
New Culture in Place




      the place to work
 the neighbor to have
  the company to own




                          5
Stock Price vs. NAV
                                                                  $ Per Share


                               Assumes:
 $24              11 of 12       Average ~ 9.5x Pipeline EBITDA
                 analysts in
                                 $2.60/Mcfe average for proved reserves
                  $20–$24
                 NAV range       Some with no value for non-proved
                                 Few with value for EPB GP interest
 $17


                               Consider:
       Current
                                 Pipelines warrant premium multiple
       Trading
                                 Bottom tier E&P properties sold for
                                 $2.73/Mcfe
                                 2.0 of 2.8 Tcfe non-proved resources are
                                 unconventional or conventional low-risk
                                 Committed to grow EPB


                                                                            6
Components of EP Net Asset Value
                            Assets                         Liabilities
                                                   Marketing book liability
            Pipelines
               Pipeline Group EBITDA1
                                                   Short and long-term net debt,
               Less EBITDA now in MLP              net of MLP debt
               Plus 50% Citrus EBITDA
                                                   50% of Citrus debt
               Less 50% Citrus JV income
               EPB common/sub units (56.2 MM)      Preferred stock
               EPB GP interest (includes 1.7 MM
                                                   Other liabilities
               units and IDRs)

            E&P
              3.1 Tcfe proved (12/31/07)2
              2.8 Tcfe risked resource potential
              (12/31/07)3
                                                     709 MM shares
                                                       outstanding
            Other
               International Power (book value)
               NOL $2.4 billion (nominal)
1Account for future inventory
2Includesproportionate share of Four Star
3Does not include divestiture properties
                                                                                   7
North American
Natural Gas Outlook
Agenda


  Demand, Supply & Flows
  Key Demand & Supply Issues
    Power Generation & Coal
    Canadian Imports
    LNG Availability
  Price Factors


                               9
Demand Growth Tilts East and North
                                                                                          Bcf/d
                                                         Eastern    3.6
                         Western      5.9
                                                         Canada     4.0
                         Canada       6.7
                                                                    4.3
                                      7.4
                                                                            Maritimes and
 NW and       2.5
                                                                   3.1%
                                     3.2%                                   Northeast U.S.
 Alaska       2.6
                                                                   2.3%
              2.8                    2.6%                                         9.5
                                                                                 10.9
             1.2%
                                                                                 11.5
                                                                     10.8
             1.4%
                                                                     11.2
                                                   4.2                             3.4%
      6.0                                                            11.2
                                                   4.3                             2.1%
      6.3                      5.0
                                                   4.3               0.9%
      6.5                      5.3
                                                                     0.3%
                                                  1.0%
                               5.7
     1.0%
                                                  0.5%
                              1.4%
     0.8%                                                                    9.7
                                                                            11.5
                              1.5%
                                                                            13.3
                                                                            4.5%
                                                  13.6
            N.A. Total                                                      3.6%
                                                  14.8
 2007                    76.0                     15.0
 2011                    83.6                     1.6%
 2016                    89.1                     0.9%
                                     Mexico 5.2
 2007–2011 CAGR 2.2%                        6.0
                                            7.0
 2007–2016 CAGR 1.6%
                                           3.6%
                                           3.4%
Source: El Paso Corporation                                                                  10
Supply Growth tilts West and South
                                                                                          Bcf/d
                                       Western
     ?                                                                       Eastern
                                       Canada
                  ?                                                          Canada
                                         17.6
  Alaska                                                                       0.3
                                         16.4
                                                                               0.4
             MacKenzie                   15.8
                                                                               0.3

                      Rockies
                        7.3
                                         Mid
                        9.6
                                                                    Appalachia
                                       Continent
                       11.2
                                          5.1      Shale Plays/        1.4
                                          5.1       Carthage           1.5
                                          4.9                                          N.A. LNG
                                                                       1.9
                                                        9.0
                      San Juan                                                         Imports
                                                       12.3
                        3.7                            14.3                               2.2
                        3.5                                                               6.8
                        3.3                                                              12.1
                                                         Onshore
                                         Permian
      2007
                                                          Gulf
      2011                                  4.2
                                                              4.8
                                            4.2
      2016                                                           GOM
                                                              4.5
                              Mexico        4.1
                                                              4.1     7.4
                                4.2                                   7.6
                                4.7                                   6.9
                                5.0
Source: El Paso Corporation                                                                11
Supply Pull: Fall Off of Canadian Exports
                                                              Volume Change 2007–2016 (Bcf/d)

                                     Demand Outpaces Supply

                                                    E. Canada/Maritimes
                  Western Canada
                                                           Production      –
                 Production     ~(2.0)
                                                           Demand       ~1.0
                 Demand         ~ 1.5

                                            Net Exports
                                            ~(3.5) Bcf/d
                                                                               LNG into Canada
                                                                                Imports      ~1.0




                   Mexico                   Net Exports                 LNG into Mexico
                                            ~(0.5) Bcf/d
           Production         ~1.0
                                                                           Imports    ~1.5
           Demand             ~2.0


                                     Supply Outpaces Demand
Source: El Paso Corporation
                                                                                                    12
Supply Changes
   Push (Pull) Gas Flows
                                                                   Changes 2007–2016 (Bcf/d)
                                       -2.0
                                                                            -1.3
                                                             -1.0
               -0.7                                                                        0.6
                                -0.8          -1.1

  -1.0

                                                                   0.4
                                                                             2.2
                              2.7                1.5
                                                                                                1.1
                                                             3.8                         0.6

                                                       4.9
                                                                                   1.2
    0.6
                                                                    2.1

                                                                      5.6
              0.6


                                                                    0.4
Source: El Paso Corporation
                                                                                               13
Demand & Supply Issues




                         14
Natural Gas—Still the Right Choice
    Resource
                              Gas   Coal   Nuke   Hydro   Wind
    Impact
    Capital                          -      -       -      -

    Fuel Cost

    Land

    Air

    Water

    Operations

    Time


Source: El Paso Corporation                                      15
Generation Capacity Pipeline
            20
                                                   18.5
                           17.5
            18
            16
            14
            12
      GW




            10
                                                                                     7.8
             8
                                                                           6.4
             6
             4
             2
             0
                           Coal               Natural Gas              Uranium    Ren/Other

                        Testing                    Under Construction            Site Prep
                                                               Cancelled

Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite New Entrants data as of 4/8/08
                                                                                              16
Demand Growth from
Power Generation
                                                                   Lower 48 Power Generation
                                                      2007–2016
                      Electric Demand Growth          + 624 bkWh (1.7% CAGR)
                      Coal Fired Generation           + 265 bkWh
                      Gas Fired Generation            + 287 bkWh
                      Gas Consumption                 + 6.2 Bcf/d (3.9% CAGR)
           16,000
                                                                          Bcf/d
                                                                                  Other
                                                      Bcf/d
           14,000
                                     Bcf/d                                        Hydro
                                                                   21% 21.6
           12,000
  MMBtus




                                                                                  Gas
                                               19% 18.9
                              16% 15.4
                                                                                  Coal
           10,000
                                                                                  Nuclear
            8,000
                              53% 55.4         52% 57.5            52% 61.5
            6,000
                                                                                  Fuel
                                                                                  Consumption
            4,000
                                                                                  Gas
            2,000
                                                                                  Coal
               0
                              2007             2011                2016
Source: El Paso Corporation                                                                 17
The Import Impetus: Demand Pull
                                                                                 Source of Supply for
                                                                               Lower 48 Consumption
           80
           70
                                                                   + 9 Bcf/d
           60                                                      - 4 Bcf/d
                                                                                         LNG Imports
           50
   Bcf/d




                                                                    +6 Bcf/d             Canada
           40
                                                                                         Lower 48
           30                                                                            Production
           20
           10
           0
                2007

                       2008

                              2009

                                     2010

                                            2011

                                                   2012

                                                          2013

                                                                 2014

                                                                        2015

                                                                                  2016
Source: El Paso Corporation                                                                            18
Forecast Comparisons:
Canadian Exports
                 10-year Decline in Net Canadian Exports to U.S. (Bcf/d)

                                                                     Ziff
                                                                                       ICF
                                                                     5.4
        Ziff
                                                                                                         Wood
                                                                                       4.9
                                                                            El Paso
               El Paso
                                                                                                         Mac
        4.4               ICF
                                                                                                  PIRA
                                  PIRA
                 4.0                                                          4.0                        3.9
                         3.7              Wood Mac
                                   3.5                                                            3.5
                                            2.9




                  As Forecasted                                     Assuming No Mackenzie Delta

Sources: Ziff Energy, June 2007 Canadian Gas Exports Report; El Paso Corporation, December 2007
Macro; ICF, November/December 2007 Reference Case; PIRA Energy Group: October 2007 Retainer
Client Seminar; Wood Mackenzie, December 2007 Long Term Outlook
                                                                                                                19
NA / Global Mesh:
Will the Tail Wag the Dog?
                                                                              Volumes in Bcf/d


             Global Gas to Global LNG                            Global LNG to NA LNG

      400                                              60


                                                       50
      300
                                                       40


      200                                              30

                                                       20
                                         Global Gas                             Global LNG
      100
                                                       10

                                                                                    NA LNG
                                         Global LNG
         0                                              0
          2000         2005           2010      2015    2000         2005    2010       2015
                                                            5%        9%     11%        24%
          5%           7%             10%       12%




Source: El Paso Corporation and EIA                                                            20
Liquefaction Project Timelines
and Delays

                             60
  Global Capacity in Bcf/d




                             50
                                                                                                                  Mar-05
                                                                                                                  Feb-06
                             40
                                                                                                                  Sep-06
                                                                                                                  Sep-07
                                                                            6 Bcf/d per year
                             30


                             20
                                  2006

                                         2007

                                                2008

                                                       2009

                                                              2010

                                                                     2011

                                                                               2012


                                                                                      2013

                                                                                             2014

                                                                                                    2015

                                                                                                           2016
Source: PIRA Energy Group’s Global LNG Service
                                                                                                                           21
U.S. LNG Imports vs. Capacity
  Imports and Capacity in Bcf/d




                                  18
                                  16
                                  14
                                  12
                                  10
                                   8
                                   6
                                   4
                                   2
                                   0
                                       Jan-04


                                                Jan-05


                                                         Jan-06


                                                                  Jan-07


                                                                           Jan-08


                                                                                       Jan-09


                                                                                                Jan-10


                                                                                                         Jan-11


                                                                                                                  Jan-12


                                                                                                                           Jan-13


                                                                                                                                    Jan-14


                                                                                                                                             Jan-15


                                                                                                                                                      Jan-16
                                                                                    Imports              Capacity


Source of Import volumes: Wood Mackenzie
Source of Capacity volumes: El Paso
                                                                                                                                                               22
Price Factors




                23
Domestic Supply Cost
IRR (%)
 60
                             Conventional            Tight Gas
                                                                         CBM
 50


 40


 30
                                                                  Shale Gas

 20


 10
   $3.00           $4.00   $5.00        $6.00        $7.00       $8.00     $9.00

                                   2008 Real $/Mcf
Source: Wood Mackenzie
                                                                           24
Coal Substitution
           PIRA's Coal quot;Softquot; Floor (Efficient Unit)               PIRA's Coal quot;Softquot; Floor (Inefficient Unit)

$8.50                                                                                                                $8.50
$8.00                                                                                                                $8.00
$7.50                                                                                                                $7.50
$7.00                                                                                                                $7.00

$6.50                                                                                                                $6.50
$6.00                                                                                                                $6.00
$5.50                                                                                                                $5.50
$5.00                                                                                                                $5.00

$4.50                                                                                                                $4.50
$4.00                                                                                                                $4.00
                 Jun-08


                          Sep-08


                                   Dec-08




                                                     Jun-09


                                                              Sep-09


                                                                        Dec-09




                                                                                          Jun-10


                                                                                                   Sep-10


                                                                                                            Dec-10
        Mar-08




                                            Mar-09




                                                                                 Mar-10

Source: PIRA Energy Group (March 2008)
                                                                                                                       25
LNG Contract and Spot Prices
          12                                                                                240

          10                                                                                200




                                                                                                  LNG Imports (Bcf)
           8                                                                                160
$/MMBtu




           6                                                                                120

           4                                                                                80

           2                                                                                40

           0                                                                                0
          2007 Jan                                                                     Dec 2007
                     Feb   Mar        Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep    Oct   Nov
               Bcf                           Henry Hub                    NBP/Zeebrugge
               European Contract             Japan Weighted Avg.


Source of Prices: PIRA Energy Group
Source of LNG Import volumes: DOE
                                                                                                  26
Summary


  Volumes shifting
     Increased West to East
     Increased South to North

  Demand on track to increase
  Positive price outlook



                                27

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el paso Intro_MacroOutlook

  • 1. El Paso Corporation Analyst Meeting April 16, 2008
  • 2. Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-looking Statements This presentation includes forward-looking statements and projections, made in reliance on the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The company has made every reasonable effort to ensure that the information and assumptions on which these statements and projections are based are current, reasonable, and complete. However, a variety of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from the projections, anticipated results or other expectations expressed in this presentation, including, without limitation, changes in unaudited and/or unreviewed financial information; our ability to implement and achieve our objectives in the 2008 plan, including earnings and cash flow targets; the effects of any changes in accounting rules and guidance; our ability to meet production volume targets in our E&P segment; uncertainties and potential consequences associated with the outcome of governmental investigations, including, without limitation, those related to the reserve revisions; outcome of litigation; our ability to comply with the covenants in our various financing documents; our ability to obtain necessary governmental approvals for proposed pipeline projects and our ability to successfully construct and operate such projects; the risks associated with recontracting of transportation commitments by our pipelines; regulatory uncertainties associated with pipeline rate cases; actions by the credit rating agencies; the successful close of our financing transactions; our ability to successfully exit the energy trading business; our ability to close our announced asset sales on a timely basis; changes in commodity prices and basis differentials for oil, natural gas, and power and relevant basis spreads; inability to realize anticipated synergies and cost savings associated with restructurings and divestitures on a timely basis; general economic and weather conditions in geographic regions or markets served by the company and its affiliates, or where operations of the company and its affiliates are located; the uncertainties associated with governmental regulation; political and currency risks associated with international operations of the company and its affiliates; competition; and other factors described in the company’s (and its affiliates’) Securities and Exchange Commission filings. While the company makes these statements and projections in good faith, neither the company nor its management can guarantee that anticipated future results will be achieved. Reference must be made to those filings for additional important factors that may affect actual results. The company assumes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements made herein or any other forward-looking statements made by the company, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. Certain of the production information in this presentation include the production attributable to El Paso’s 49 percent interest in Four Star Oil & Gas Company (“Four Star”). El Paso’s Supplemental Oil and Gas disclosures, which are included in its Annual Report on Form 10-K, reflect its proportionate share of the proved reserves of Four Star separate from its consolidated proved reserves. In addition, the proved reserves attributable to its proportionate share of Four Star represent estimates prepared by El Paso and not those of Four Star. Cautionary Note to U.S. Investors—The United States Securities and Exchange Commission permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved reserves that a company has demonstrated by actual production or conclusive formation tests to be economically and legally producible under existing economic and operating conditions. We use certain terms in this presentation that the SEC's guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC. U.S. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosures regarding proved reserves in this presentation and the disclosures contained in our Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2006, File No. 001-14365, available by writing; Investor Relations, El Paso Corporation, 1001 Louisiana St., Houston, TX 77002. You can also obtain this form from the SEC by calling 1-800-SEC-0330. Non-GAAP Financial Measures This presentation includes certain Non-GAAP financial measures as defined in the SEC’s Regulation G. More information on these Non-GAAP financial measures, including EBIT, EBITDA, cash costs, net capital, net debt, and the required reconciliations under Regulation G, are set forth in this presentation or in the appendix hereto. El Paso defines Resource Potential as subsurface volumes of oil and natural gas the company believes may be present and eventually recoverable. The company utilizes a net, geologic risk mean to represent this estimated ultimate recoverable amount. 2
  • 3. Schedule Estimated Time (EST) 8:00 a.m. Introduction Bruce Connery …….. Vice President, Investor & Media Relations Doug Foshee ………. President and Chief Executive Officer 8:15 a.m. Macro Outlook Byron Wright ………. Vice President, Corporate Development 8:35 a.m. Pipelines Jim Yardley ………… President, Pipeline Group 9:10 a.m. Q&A 9:30 a.m. Break 9:50 a.m. Exploration & Production Brent Smolik ……….. President, Exploration & Production 11:20 a.m. Q&A 11:40 a.m. Marketing Book Update & Financial Overview Mark Leland ……….. Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer 11:50 a.m. Summary 11:55 a.m. Q&A 3
  • 4. Defining Our Purpose El Paso Corporation provides natural gas and related energy products in a safe, efficient, and dependable manner 4
  • 5. New Culture in Place the place to work the neighbor to have the company to own 5
  • 6. Stock Price vs. NAV $ Per Share Assumes: $24 11 of 12 Average ~ 9.5x Pipeline EBITDA analysts in $2.60/Mcfe average for proved reserves $20–$24 NAV range Some with no value for non-proved Few with value for EPB GP interest $17 Consider: Current Pipelines warrant premium multiple Trading Bottom tier E&P properties sold for $2.73/Mcfe 2.0 of 2.8 Tcfe non-proved resources are unconventional or conventional low-risk Committed to grow EPB 6
  • 7. Components of EP Net Asset Value Assets Liabilities Marketing book liability Pipelines Pipeline Group EBITDA1 Short and long-term net debt, Less EBITDA now in MLP net of MLP debt Plus 50% Citrus EBITDA 50% of Citrus debt Less 50% Citrus JV income EPB common/sub units (56.2 MM) Preferred stock EPB GP interest (includes 1.7 MM Other liabilities units and IDRs) E&P 3.1 Tcfe proved (12/31/07)2 2.8 Tcfe risked resource potential (12/31/07)3 709 MM shares outstanding Other International Power (book value) NOL $2.4 billion (nominal) 1Account for future inventory 2Includesproportionate share of Four Star 3Does not include divestiture properties 7
  • 9. Agenda Demand, Supply & Flows Key Demand & Supply Issues Power Generation & Coal Canadian Imports LNG Availability Price Factors 9
  • 10. Demand Growth Tilts East and North Bcf/d Eastern 3.6 Western 5.9 Canada 4.0 Canada 6.7 4.3 7.4 Maritimes and NW and 2.5 3.1% 3.2% Northeast U.S. Alaska 2.6 2.3% 2.8 2.6% 9.5 10.9 1.2% 11.5 10.8 1.4% 11.2 4.2 3.4% 6.0 11.2 4.3 2.1% 6.3 5.0 4.3 0.9% 6.5 5.3 0.3% 1.0% 5.7 1.0% 0.5% 1.4% 0.8% 9.7 11.5 1.5% 13.3 4.5% 13.6 N.A. Total 3.6% 14.8 2007 76.0 15.0 2011 83.6 1.6% 2016 89.1 0.9% Mexico 5.2 2007–2011 CAGR 2.2% 6.0 7.0 2007–2016 CAGR 1.6% 3.6% 3.4% Source: El Paso Corporation 10
  • 11. Supply Growth tilts West and South Bcf/d Western ? Eastern Canada ? Canada 17.6 Alaska 0.3 16.4 0.4 MacKenzie 15.8 0.3 Rockies 7.3 Mid 9.6 Appalachia Continent 11.2 5.1 Shale Plays/ 1.4 5.1 Carthage 1.5 4.9 N.A. LNG 1.9 9.0 San Juan Imports 12.3 3.7 14.3 2.2 3.5 6.8 3.3 12.1 Onshore Permian 2007 Gulf 2011 4.2 4.8 4.2 2016 GOM 4.5 Mexico 4.1 4.1 7.4 4.2 7.6 4.7 6.9 5.0 Source: El Paso Corporation 11
  • 12. Supply Pull: Fall Off of Canadian Exports Volume Change 2007–2016 (Bcf/d) Demand Outpaces Supply E. Canada/Maritimes Western Canada Production – Production ~(2.0) Demand ~1.0 Demand ~ 1.5 Net Exports ~(3.5) Bcf/d LNG into Canada Imports ~1.0 Mexico Net Exports LNG into Mexico ~(0.5) Bcf/d Production ~1.0 Imports ~1.5 Demand ~2.0 Supply Outpaces Demand Source: El Paso Corporation 12
  • 13. Supply Changes Push (Pull) Gas Flows Changes 2007–2016 (Bcf/d) -2.0 -1.3 -1.0 -0.7 0.6 -0.8 -1.1 -1.0 0.4 2.2 2.7 1.5 1.1 3.8 0.6 4.9 1.2 0.6 2.1 5.6 0.6 0.4 Source: El Paso Corporation 13
  • 14. Demand & Supply Issues 14
  • 15. Natural Gas—Still the Right Choice Resource Gas Coal Nuke Hydro Wind Impact Capital - - - - Fuel Cost Land Air Water Operations Time Source: El Paso Corporation 15
  • 16. Generation Capacity Pipeline 20 18.5 17.5 18 16 14 12 GW 10 7.8 8 6.4 6 4 2 0 Coal Natural Gas Uranium Ren/Other Testing Under Construction Site Prep Cancelled Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite New Entrants data as of 4/8/08 16
  • 17. Demand Growth from Power Generation Lower 48 Power Generation 2007–2016 Electric Demand Growth + 624 bkWh (1.7% CAGR) Coal Fired Generation + 265 bkWh Gas Fired Generation + 287 bkWh Gas Consumption + 6.2 Bcf/d (3.9% CAGR) 16,000 Bcf/d Other Bcf/d 14,000 Bcf/d Hydro 21% 21.6 12,000 MMBtus Gas 19% 18.9 16% 15.4 Coal 10,000 Nuclear 8,000 53% 55.4 52% 57.5 52% 61.5 6,000 Fuel Consumption 4,000 Gas 2,000 Coal 0 2007 2011 2016 Source: El Paso Corporation 17
  • 18. The Import Impetus: Demand Pull Source of Supply for Lower 48 Consumption 80 70 + 9 Bcf/d 60 - 4 Bcf/d LNG Imports 50 Bcf/d +6 Bcf/d Canada 40 Lower 48 30 Production 20 10 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: El Paso Corporation 18
  • 19. Forecast Comparisons: Canadian Exports 10-year Decline in Net Canadian Exports to U.S. (Bcf/d) Ziff ICF 5.4 Ziff Wood 4.9 El Paso El Paso Mac 4.4 ICF PIRA PIRA 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.7 Wood Mac 3.5 3.5 2.9 As Forecasted Assuming No Mackenzie Delta Sources: Ziff Energy, June 2007 Canadian Gas Exports Report; El Paso Corporation, December 2007 Macro; ICF, November/December 2007 Reference Case; PIRA Energy Group: October 2007 Retainer Client Seminar; Wood Mackenzie, December 2007 Long Term Outlook 19
  • 20. NA / Global Mesh: Will the Tail Wag the Dog? Volumes in Bcf/d Global Gas to Global LNG Global LNG to NA LNG 400 60 50 300 40 200 30 20 Global Gas Global LNG 100 10 NA LNG Global LNG 0 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015 5% 9% 11% 24% 5% 7% 10% 12% Source: El Paso Corporation and EIA 20
  • 21. Liquefaction Project Timelines and Delays 60 Global Capacity in Bcf/d 50 Mar-05 Feb-06 40 Sep-06 Sep-07 6 Bcf/d per year 30 20 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: PIRA Energy Group’s Global LNG Service 21
  • 22. U.S. LNG Imports vs. Capacity Imports and Capacity in Bcf/d 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Imports Capacity Source of Import volumes: Wood Mackenzie Source of Capacity volumes: El Paso 22
  • 24. Domestic Supply Cost IRR (%) 60 Conventional Tight Gas CBM 50 40 30 Shale Gas 20 10 $3.00 $4.00 $5.00 $6.00 $7.00 $8.00 $9.00 2008 Real $/Mcf Source: Wood Mackenzie 24
  • 25. Coal Substitution PIRA's Coal quot;Softquot; Floor (Efficient Unit) PIRA's Coal quot;Softquot; Floor (Inefficient Unit) $8.50 $8.50 $8.00 $8.00 $7.50 $7.50 $7.00 $7.00 $6.50 $6.50 $6.00 $6.00 $5.50 $5.50 $5.00 $5.00 $4.50 $4.50 $4.00 $4.00 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Source: PIRA Energy Group (March 2008) 25
  • 26. LNG Contract and Spot Prices 12 240 10 200 LNG Imports (Bcf) 8 160 $/MMBtu 6 120 4 80 2 40 0 0 2007 Jan Dec 2007 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Bcf Henry Hub NBP/Zeebrugge European Contract Japan Weighted Avg. Source of Prices: PIRA Energy Group Source of LNG Import volumes: DOE 26
  • 27. Summary Volumes shifting Increased West to East Increased South to North Demand on track to increase Positive price outlook 27