Portugal has historically experienced high rates of emigration since World War II. Emigration increased rapidly in the 1960s-1970s, decreased after the 1974 revolution, and increased again after Portugal joined the Euro in 1986 and after the 2008 financial crisis. The document discusses using multiple linear regression to analyze what factors affect Portugal's emigration rate, finding the rate increases with the number of unemployed individuals, ageing index, and decreases with higher family benefits public spending. It concludes the analysis provides evidence that supports the claim Portugal has the second highest emigration rate in Europe.

1. WHAT FACTORS AFFECT
PORTUGAL’S EMIGRATION?
PROGRAMMING TECHNIQUES | PROFESSOR CARLOS COSTA | DECEMBER, 2019
GROUP 3 | CATARINA COTOVIO, GIL AZEVEDO, MAFALDA COELHO, MARIA RITA CARRIÇO

2. SUMMARY
Portugal’s
background
on emigration
1 Multiple
Linear
Regression
How to do it
on Python?
2 Regression
analysis
3 Conclusions
4

3. PORTUGAL’S BACKGROUND ON
EMIGRATION
“Portugal is the European country with
the second highest emigration rate”

4. World war II: emigration as a constant state
Decades 60-70: emigration increased really fast
1974 revolution: emigration decreased
1986, Portugal joined Euro: emigration increases
really fast, again
2008 crisis: emigration interrupted
2010: emigration increases with more strength
2013: stabilizes
PORTUGAL’S BACKGROUND ON
EMIGRATION

5. MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION
Coefficient
([ 2.66350127e+05, 3.05815438e-03, 4.17695399e-04, -9.22468404e+05, -1.76811502e-03,
9.57573266e+01, 1.40755269e+05])
As result we verify that the emigration rate increases with all variables execept for family benefits
public spending deflated.
Lm score
0.9604802529407912
The score obtained is high although the model shows a strong correlation between variables.

6. MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION

7. MULTIPLE
LINEAR
REGRESSION
To solve this problem we’ll exclude from
the model the following variables:
• GDP (basis=2016) (thousands of euros)
• GDP deflators (basis=2016)
• Family benefits public spending (% of
GDP)
• Family benefits public spending
(thousands of euros)

8. New coefficient
array([-9.90056585e-05, 7.04728569e+01, 2.33275461e+04])
NEW MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION
Portugal’s
Emigration Rate
Number of Unemployed Individuals
Ageing Index
Family Benefits Public Spending
New lm score
0.8250423067377275
F-critical value = 19,45 < F-value = 31.44
Individual
significance
(P-value)
Overall significance
(F-statistic)

9. NEW MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION

10. NEW
MULTIPLE
LINEAR
REGRESSION

11. CONCLUSIONS
Individual significance Correlation analysis
Number of Unemployed
Individuals
Significant 0,89
Family Benefits Public
Spending
Significant 0,32
Ageing Index Not Significant 0,71
Empirical analysis/results showed evidences for the Publico statement to be correct.