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Going transplanetary
Erika Ilves, co-founder, Transplanetary
Strategy summit, stavanger, Jan 29, 2015
Credit: Bryan Versteeg, spacehabs.com
Something incredible
just happened At the edge of the Milky Way.
Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/R. Hurt
humans.
So much potential. So little time.
"Now is the watershed of Cosmic history…
Behind us yawn the chasms of the primordial past, when this
universe was a dead and silent place; before us rise the broad
sunlit uplands of a living cosmos.
In the next few galactic seconds, the fate of the universe will
be decided. Life — the ultimate experiment — will either
explode into space and engulf the star-clouds in a fire storm
of children, trees, and butterfly wings; or Life will fail, fizzle,
and gutter out, leaving the universe shrouded forever in
impenetrable blankness, devoid of hope."
Marshall T. Savage
The Millennial Project: Colonizing the Galaxy in Eight Easy Steps, 1994
We know what we must do.
"In the long run, a single-planet species will not survive.”
Michael Griffin, NASA administrator
2006
“Since, in the long run, every planetary civilization will be
endangered by impacts from space, every surviving
civilization is obliged to become spacefaring—not because of
exploratory or romantic zeal, but for the most practical
reason imaginable: staying alive... If our long-term survival is
at stake, we have a basic responsibility to our species to
venture to other worlds.”
Carl Sagan
1994
“The long-term survival of humanity, and of the plant and
animal life that we cherish on Earth, can best be assured by
building colonies dispersed throughout our solar system and
beyond.”
Gerard o’neill
1976
"Remember this: once the human race is established
on more than one planet and especially, in more than one
solar system, there is no way now imaginable to kill off the
human race.”
Robert A. Heinlein
1961
“This is the goal: To make available for life every place where
life is possible. To make inhabitable all worlds as yet
uninhabitable, and all life purposeful.”
Hermann oberth
1957
"Man must at all costs overcome the Earth's gravity and
have, in reserve, the space at least of the Solar System. All
kinds of danger wait for him on the Earth. . . . We have said a
great deal about the advantages of migration into space, but
not all can be said or even imagined.”
Konstantin tsiolkovsky
1929
"Perchance, coming generations will not abide the dissolution
of the globe, but, availing themselves of future inventions in
aerial locomotion, and the navigation of space, the entire race
may migrate from the earth, to settle some vacant and more
western planet.... It took but little art, a simple application of
natural laws, a canoe, a paddle, and a sail of matting, to
people the isles of the Pacific, and a little more will people the
shining isles of space. ”
Henry david thoreau
1843
so what have we done in a hundred years?
As of Jan 23, 2015
people in space 547
man years in space123
currently in space 6
Source: worldspaceflight.com
As of Jan 23, 2015
Source: worldspaceflight.com
18orbited
12walked
0
529100-450 km
"The regret on our side is,
they used to say years ago,
we are reading about you in
science class. Now they say,
we are reading about you in
history class."
Neil armstrong, july 1999
Why so little progress?
It’s hard.
It’s expensive.
apollo
$164 Billion
iss
$150 Billion
SLS
$30 Billion
We don’t care about our extinction
All That much.
Availability bias
“The last time I checked,
Humans have not gone extinct”
We do seem to care
about prestige & military dominance.
Image: Kerbal Space Program
We care about science…
…unless we need the money for something else.
We care about doing more and more
With less and less.
On Earth.
A path that pays for itself
is the path that will happen.
Enter commercial space.
Aka “new space.”
1,200satellites
$200 billion market
92launches in 2014
$6 billion market
SPACE internet Real time eyes on earth
High altitude joy rides Anywhere in under 4 hours
It’s all wonderful.
But none of this calls for people to live in space
or go beyond the geostationary orbit.
Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/R. Hurt
A question of galactic significance:
What creates value on earth,
requires humans in the loop and/or
Pushes us beyond the geostationary orbit?
…and a handful of space-based business models.
Space tourism Micro-g research Re-fueling stations
Space mining Space-based solar power Manufacturing in space
Space & market potential maybe infinite…
…But investor understanding & attention is finite.
These business cases make real sense
if funded together.
Space tourism Micro-g
research
Re-fueling stations
Space mining Space-based
solar power
Manufacturing
in space
We need to be less like space cowboys
And more like space musketeers.
An ecosystem problem
can only be solved by going meta.
How to make an ecosystem of
These Space-based business models investible?
For starters, just bloody explain
this whole space thing better.
Meta idea #1:
Space sector visualization and analytics platform
VITAL’s SIBLING for Space was conceived over lunch.
We named him spock*.
*Space program on ontologically computed knowledge
It takes time to train your AI
•  Space jargon
•  2,000 space entities
•  900,000 people
•  All space related patents
•  Hundreds of sources
•  Asking the right questions
•  Predictive algorithms
Meta idea #1: version 2.0
Mission control for humanity’s expansion off Earth,
Manned by spock
ABOUT BLOG
Explore past,
present & future
space
missions
Explore
space
industry
Check out
space
companies
Invest in
space
Volunteer,
crowdfund
or work in
space
Greetings, I am SPOCK.
I man this Mission Control for
human civilization’s expansion
into space. What do you want to do?
July 2015
Ecosystem-level solutionS
3 meta ideas
MISSION CONTROL
Web intelligence platform for
space investors, analysts and
enthusiasts giving a real-time
overview of the global space
ecosystem, incl. predictions of
future space milestones,
visualization of future markets and
investment recommendations.
MARKETPLACE
3rd party B2B global marketplace
for space systems, sub-systems
and components (“Amazon 3rd
party marketplace for space”).
Could evolve into a platform for
sharing and manufacturing high-
volume aerospace components
and sub-systems (“Amazon 3D
printing shop for space”)
SPACE DEVELOPMENT
BANK
A global facility designed to fund
the currently unfundable space
infrastructure projects. Modelled
on the concept of development
banking but applied to the sector,
not developing world nations.
(“EBRD for space”)
Visualize space markets Create new funding mechanismsDrive out costs
We will pivot
but will not let go of the bone.
Space settlement
Find a WAY to go transplanetary
That pays for itself.
Sweet dreams are made of these:
Credit: NASA
Credit: Bryan Versteeg, spacehabs.com
Credit: ESA
So that one day…
"When you look at the stars
and the galaxy, you feel you
are not just from any
particular piece of land,
but from the solar system."
Laurel clark
“Because of us, landscapes of radiation blasted waste, will be
miraculously transmuted: Slag will become soil, grass will
sprout, flowers will bloom, and forests will spring up in once
sterile places. Ice, hard as iron, will melt and trickle into pools
where starfish, anemones, and seashells dwell—a whole
frozen universe will thaw and transmogrify, from howling
desolation to blossoming paradise.”
Marshall T. Savage
The Millennial Project: Colonizing the Galaxy in Eight Easy Steps, 1994
Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/R. Hurt
transplanetary.com
@transplanetary

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Going Transplanetary

  • 1. Going transplanetary Erika Ilves, co-founder, Transplanetary Strategy summit, stavanger, Jan 29, 2015 Credit: Bryan Versteeg, spacehabs.com
  • 2. Something incredible just happened At the edge of the Milky Way.
  • 4. humans. So much potential. So little time.
  • 5.
  • 6. "Now is the watershed of Cosmic history… Behind us yawn the chasms of the primordial past, when this universe was a dead and silent place; before us rise the broad sunlit uplands of a living cosmos. In the next few galactic seconds, the fate of the universe will be decided. Life — the ultimate experiment — will either explode into space and engulf the star-clouds in a fire storm of children, trees, and butterfly wings; or Life will fail, fizzle, and gutter out, leaving the universe shrouded forever in impenetrable blankness, devoid of hope." Marshall T. Savage The Millennial Project: Colonizing the Galaxy in Eight Easy Steps, 1994
  • 7. We know what we must do.
  • 8. "In the long run, a single-planet species will not survive.” Michael Griffin, NASA administrator 2006
  • 9. “Since, in the long run, every planetary civilization will be endangered by impacts from space, every surviving civilization is obliged to become spacefaring—not because of exploratory or romantic zeal, but for the most practical reason imaginable: staying alive... If our long-term survival is at stake, we have a basic responsibility to our species to venture to other worlds.” Carl Sagan 1994
  • 10. “The long-term survival of humanity, and of the plant and animal life that we cherish on Earth, can best be assured by building colonies dispersed throughout our solar system and beyond.” Gerard o’neill 1976
  • 11. "Remember this: once the human race is established on more than one planet and especially, in more than one solar system, there is no way now imaginable to kill off the human race.” Robert A. Heinlein 1961
  • 12. “This is the goal: To make available for life every place where life is possible. To make inhabitable all worlds as yet uninhabitable, and all life purposeful.” Hermann oberth 1957
  • 13. "Man must at all costs overcome the Earth's gravity and have, in reserve, the space at least of the Solar System. All kinds of danger wait for him on the Earth. . . . We have said a great deal about the advantages of migration into space, but not all can be said or even imagined.” Konstantin tsiolkovsky 1929
  • 14. "Perchance, coming generations will not abide the dissolution of the globe, but, availing themselves of future inventions in aerial locomotion, and the navigation of space, the entire race may migrate from the earth, to settle some vacant and more western planet.... It took but little art, a simple application of natural laws, a canoe, a paddle, and a sail of matting, to people the isles of the Pacific, and a little more will people the shining isles of space. ” Henry david thoreau 1843
  • 15. so what have we done in a hundred years?
  • 16. As of Jan 23, 2015 people in space 547 man years in space123 currently in space 6 Source: worldspaceflight.com
  • 17. As of Jan 23, 2015 Source: worldspaceflight.com 18orbited 12walked 0 529100-450 km
  • 18. "The regret on our side is, they used to say years ago, we are reading about you in science class. Now they say, we are reading about you in history class." Neil armstrong, july 1999
  • 19. Why so little progress?
  • 21.
  • 24. We don’t care about our extinction All That much.
  • 25. Availability bias “The last time I checked, Humans have not gone extinct”
  • 26.
  • 27. We do seem to care about prestige & military dominance.
  • 29.
  • 30.
  • 31. We care about science… …unless we need the money for something else.
  • 32.
  • 33. We care about doing more and more With less and less. On Earth.
  • 34.
  • 35. A path that pays for itself is the path that will happen.
  • 36. Enter commercial space. Aka “new space.”
  • 38. SPACE internet Real time eyes on earth High altitude joy rides Anywhere in under 4 hours
  • 40. But none of this calls for people to live in space or go beyond the geostationary orbit.
  • 41. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/R. Hurt A question of galactic significance:
  • 42. What creates value on earth, requires humans in the loop and/or Pushes us beyond the geostationary orbit?
  • 43.
  • 44. …and a handful of space-based business models.
  • 45. Space tourism Micro-g research Re-fueling stations Space mining Space-based solar power Manufacturing in space
  • 46. Space & market potential maybe infinite…
  • 47. …But investor understanding & attention is finite.
  • 48.
  • 49. These business cases make real sense if funded together.
  • 50. Space tourism Micro-g research Re-fueling stations Space mining Space-based solar power Manufacturing in space
  • 51.
  • 52.
  • 53. We need to be less like space cowboys And more like space musketeers.
  • 54.
  • 55. An ecosystem problem can only be solved by going meta.
  • 56. How to make an ecosystem of These Space-based business models investible?
  • 57. For starters, just bloody explain this whole space thing better.
  • 58. Meta idea #1: Space sector visualization and analytics platform
  • 59.
  • 60.
  • 61.
  • 62. VITAL’s SIBLING for Space was conceived over lunch. We named him spock*. *Space program on ontologically computed knowledge
  • 63. It takes time to train your AI •  Space jargon •  2,000 space entities •  900,000 people •  All space related patents •  Hundreds of sources •  Asking the right questions •  Predictive algorithms
  • 64. Meta idea #1: version 2.0 Mission control for humanity’s expansion off Earth, Manned by spock
  • 65. ABOUT BLOG Explore past, present & future space missions Explore space industry Check out space companies Invest in space Volunteer, crowdfund or work in space Greetings, I am SPOCK. I man this Mission Control for human civilization’s expansion into space. What do you want to do?
  • 67. Ecosystem-level solutionS 3 meta ideas MISSION CONTROL Web intelligence platform for space investors, analysts and enthusiasts giving a real-time overview of the global space ecosystem, incl. predictions of future space milestones, visualization of future markets and investment recommendations. MARKETPLACE 3rd party B2B global marketplace for space systems, sub-systems and components (“Amazon 3rd party marketplace for space”). Could evolve into a platform for sharing and manufacturing high- volume aerospace components and sub-systems (“Amazon 3D printing shop for space”) SPACE DEVELOPMENT BANK A global facility designed to fund the currently unfundable space infrastructure projects. Modelled on the concept of development banking but applied to the sector, not developing world nations. (“EBRD for space”) Visualize space markets Create new funding mechanismsDrive out costs
  • 68. We will pivot but will not let go of the bone.
  • 70. Find a WAY to go transplanetary That pays for itself.
  • 71. Sweet dreams are made of these:
  • 73. Credit: Bryan Versteeg, spacehabs.com
  • 75.
  • 76.
  • 77. So that one day…
  • 78. "When you look at the stars and the galaxy, you feel you are not just from any particular piece of land, but from the solar system." Laurel clark
  • 79. “Because of us, landscapes of radiation blasted waste, will be miraculously transmuted: Slag will become soil, grass will sprout, flowers will bloom, and forests will spring up in once sterile places. Ice, hard as iron, will melt and trickle into pools where starfish, anemones, and seashells dwell—a whole frozen universe will thaw and transmogrify, from howling desolation to blossoming paradise.” Marshall T. Savage The Millennial Project: Colonizing the Galaxy in Eight Easy Steps, 1994