Dietmar Weiss - Tendències del mercat i de la producció del sector carni porcí europeu

1. AMI -
Agrarmarkt
Informationsgesellschaft
The Future of the German and European
Pig Meat Sector
Món Sant Benet, 29.09.2011
Dr. Dietmar Weiß

2. Strong growth in German Pig Production
Pig slaughtering in Germany
head
11
58,6 59,3
Increase of 35 % in 10 years
23 % of EU-Pigmeat Production
Germany No. 3 in the world

3. Main reasons for the growth
Enlargement of the EU 2004
Cost advantage of slaughtering and cutting due to low
labour costs
Import of live pigs
Strong increase of the live pig import
Very competitive and efficient sector with good
infrastructure in the main production areas

4. Pork production exceeds consumption
Mio. tonnes carcass weight Production+ Import
6,67
Surplus
2,15
5,49
4,52
Consumption
Pigmeat production

5. German Trade with Pigmeat
1.000 tonnes cw.
2.200
Import
2.000
Export
1.800
1.600
1.400
1.200
1.000
800
600
400
200
0
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

6. Plans to enlarge slaughter capacity
- in the next 2 years -
Weekly capacity now Weekly capacity future
Tonnies
- Rheda-Wiedenbrück 135.000 180.000
- Weißenfels 90.000 120.000
33.000 50.000
- Sögel
Vion
- Emstek 38.000 50.000
18.000 25.000
- Lingen
Westfleisch (Group) 122.000 135.000
Danish Crown Germany 63.000 80.000
Vogler 40.000 45.000
+ 20 % to 70 Mio. Pigs ??
Source: Survey of the Chambers of Agriculture April 2011

7. Too many pigs in some regions
Plan to tighten the building law
Growing resistance of citizens
against new / larger stables

8. Possible exit of piglet producers
until 2013
0 – 10 %
10 – 20 %
25 – 35 %
20 – 30 % ?
Piglet production will decline
less than 4 %!

9. German pig production depens
on live pig imports
German import of live pigs
Million
Piglets 15,0 15,1 ??
16,0
Slaughter Pigs
14,0
12,0
10,0
8,2 9,8
10,4
8,0
6,0 5,0
4,0
2,0 5,2 4,7
3,2
0,0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013

10. Main challenge in the future:
The acceptance of citizens and consumers!
Feel like a pig
No / less meat Meat production
= Climate protection = animal cruelty
= healthy diet

11. Slaughterhouses try to react
! Sustainability !
- Animal welfare labels (from companies, but also label plans of politics)
- Traceability / regional production
- Co2 Footprint
- Coming soon: antibiotics, animal transportation, tail docking, ........

12. Intensive discussion of animal welfare and
sustainability will move southwards

13. Decrease of the EU sow herd
EU Pig population, May/June 2011
in 1.000 head
Total 2010 % to Sows 2010 % to gilts %
pigs prev. year prev. Year prev. Year
Germany 26.705 26.509 0,7 2.185 2.243 -2,6 -8,4
Spain 25.479 24.703 3,1 2.336 2.521 -7,3 -5,9
France 13.837 14.142 -2,2 1.144 1.158 -1,2 -4,9
Poland 13.100 13.978 -6,3 1.214 1.393 -12,8 -8,9
Netherlands 12.383 12.250 1,1 1.105 1.090 1,4 10,4
Denmark 11.932 12.208 -2,3 1.264 1.323 -4,5 -7,9
Italy 9.290 9.324 -0,4 673 728 -7,5 -8,8
Romania 4.597 4.701 -2,2 350 360 -2,7 -2,7
UK 4.452 4.460 -0,2 513 501 2,4 4,2
Hungary 3.132 3.208 -2,4 300 319 -6,0 -9,9
Austria 3.049 3.120 -2,3 276 286 -3,6 -7,2
Czech Rep. 1.749 1.909 -8,4 112 133 -15,8 -20,6
Sweden 1.483 1.564 -5,2 151 167 -9,5 -17,3
EU (13 countries) 131.187 132.076 -0,7 11.623 12.221 -4,9 -5,5

14. Less sows in the EU
1.000 head
Sow population in the EU (Dec.)
17.000
- 10 %
16.000
15.000
-8%
14.000
13.000
12.000
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011e

15. Lower pig production in the next years
Mio. head
265
260 257,7 258,5
255,1 255,1
255 254,0
251,0
249,1
250
245
240
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012e 2013e

16. Mid-term outlook for the EU Pig Sector
- Production and self suffiency ratio will decline but not
break down
- Export opportunities to Russia could decline
but more exports to Asia
- Trade liberalisation could increase imports
- Cost price of pig production could increase
- Animal welfare and sustainability of pig production will
play a more important role – fight for acceptance
- Strong structural change in the pig meat sector

17. Thank you for your attention
Die Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft erstellt unabhängig und übergreifend
aktuelle Fakten und Analysen für das gesamte Agribusiness.

18. Competition of the land use
Food or Energy
Maize for the biogas production Bio energy offers
2,04 more profit than
pig production
30
Germany´s drop
out of using
nuclear energy will
enlarge the use of
Share of the biogas use bio energy
in percent
11
11

19. Rekordpreise für Futtermittel
Euro/t Preisentwicklung für Schweinemischfuttermittel
400
350
Ferkel Sauen
300
250
200
Mastschwein
150
100
Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
AMI/LK 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

20. Fehlende Wirtschaftlichkeit 2011

21. Unrentable Ferkelproduktion

22. D: Außenhandel Schweinefleisch
Deutschland: Ausfuhr von Schweinefleisch und Erzeugnissen
in Produktgewicht Jan. - Juni (vorl.)
Exporterlöse:
2010 2011 11 gg. 10 Anteil
Tonnen Tonnen in % in %
2010: 2,20 Mrd.
EU-27 901.969 840.452 -6,8 71,9
Osteuropa/Baltikum* 148.189 141.196 -4,7 12,1 2011: 2,23 Mrd.
Italien 156.384 145.347 -7,1 12,4
Niederlande 145.984 138.926 -4,8 11,9
Polen 96.321 83.972 -12,8 7,2
Großbritannien 156.384 145.347 -7,1 12,4
Österreich 72.873 63.419 -13,0 5,4
Drittländer 302.254 328.659 8,7 28,1
Russland 145.316 146.338 0,7 12,5
China/Hong Kong 82.498 104.546 26,7 8,9
Südafrika 6.758 11.215 66,0 1,0
Südkorea 1.925 13.518 602,2 1,2
Ausfuhr insgesamt 1.204.223 1.169.111 -2,9 100,0
* Tschechien, Bulgarien, Ungarn, Rumänien, Slowakei, Estland, Litauen, Lettland
Quelle: AMI/Statistisches Bundesamt, Wiesbaden

23. EU-Prognose Schweinepreis 2011
Preis 2010 Progn. Tats. Preis
2011
Euro kg SG Klasse E (kalt)
Quart. 1 1,34 1,43 1,43
Quart. 2 1,41 1,54 1,56
Quart. 3 1,48 1,58 1,56
Quart. 4 1,38 1,44 1,46
Jahr 1,40 1,50 1,50
Deutschland 1,45 1,56 1,53
Quelle: Prognoseausschuss der EU-Kommission

24. Riesen Strukturunterschiede
Sauen / Betrieb
Deutschland Niedersachsen
2007 87 Sauen 106 Sauen
2010 114 Sauen 147 Sauen
(+ 31 %) (+ 39 %)
Quelle: Destatis Agrarstrukturerhebung 2010

25. Strukturen der Sauenhaltung 2010
Anteil der Betriebe mit X % Sauen Anteil der Sauen in diesen Betrieben
Insg. 20.815 Betriebe Insg. 2,36 Mio. Sauen
> 500
100 bis 500
50 bis 99
0 bis 49
Quelle: Destatis Agrarstrukturerhebung 2010