CEE and CIS Economies: Uncertain Prospects of Economic Convergence_Marek Dabrowski

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CASE Center for Social and Economic Research

The GDP per capita in PPP terms of the former communist economies converged quite rapidly with that of Germany until 2007 but then this trend has been either stopped or even reversed. Perspectives of further convergence remain uncertain and conditional on solving the problem of low saving rate and return to systemic reforms. Marek Dabrowski is currently CASE Fellow, Non-Resident Fellow a Bruegel, Fellow at the European Comission-Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs, Professor of the Higher School of Economics in Moscow, Chairman of the Supervisory Board of CASE Ukraine in Kiev, and Member of Scientific Council of E.T. Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy in Moscow. Between 1989 and 1990 he served as a First Deputy Minister of Finance of the Republic of Poland. See the full profile here http://www.case-research.eu/en/node/51822

Economy & Finance

Marek Dabrowski
CEE and CIS Economies: Uncertain Prospects of Economic Convergence
Presentation at the joint NBP & IMF Conference on ‘Building Market Economies in Europe: Lessons and Challenges after 25 Years of Transition’, Warsaw, October 24, 2014

Economic convergence analysis
• Various meanings of convergence and benchmarks
• GDP per capita in current intern. $, in PPP terms
• As % of Germany’s GDP per capita in PPP terms
• WEO database, October 2014
• Former communist economies in CEE and CIS
(except Kosovo) presented in three subgroups: 11
NMS, 5 Western Balkan, 12 CIS
2

3
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
EU NMS
Bulgaria Croatia Czech Rep. Estonia
Hungary Latvia Lithuania Poland
Romania Slovakia Slovenia

4
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Western Balkans
Albania
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Macedonia
Montenegro
Serbia

5
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
CIS
Armenia Azerbaijan
Belarus Georgia
Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan
Moldova Russia
Tajikistan Turkmenistan
Ukraine Uzbekistan

Barriers of convergence: demand
factors
• Slower growth of the world economy
• Stagnation in Western Europe
• Stagnation and security risks in the
Eastern neighborhood
6

Long-term growth arithmetic based
on the neo-classical growth theory
• Declining domestic labor resources (due to
demography and net outward migration)
• Constraints on investment financing
– Increase in national saving rates? What about fiscal
consolidation?
– Return to higher import of saving?
• Total factor productivity (regress in economic
reforms)
7

8
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Emerging and developing Europe: saving-investment imbalance, % of
GDP
Investment
Gross national savings
Source: IMF WEO database , April 2014

9
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Gross national saving, % of GDP: interregional comparison, 2001-
2013
Eurozone
CIS
E&D_Asia
E&D_Europe
LAC
Source: IMF WEO database , April 2014

National reform agenda
• Modernization of excessive welfare state
• Labor market flexibility
• Education reform
• Fiscal consolidation
• Return to privatization
• Business and investment climate
• Governance, rule of law, corruption, organized
crime, etc.
10

European dimension
• Importance of similar reforms in all EU member
states, especially in large continental economies
• Deepening of the Single European Market
(services, infrastructure)
• Banking Union
• Strengthening fiscal and macroeconomic
discipline
11

Global agenda
• Completing the Doha Development
Round
• Financial sector reform
• Macroeconomic policy coordination
• Climate change policy
12

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Belarusian economy has been stagnating in 2011-2015 after 15 years of a high annual average growth rate. In 2015, after four years of stagnation, the Belarusian economy slid into a recession, its first since 1996, and experienced both cyclical and structural recessions. Since 2015, the Belarusian government and the National Bank of Belarus have been giving economic reforms a good chance thanks to gradual but consistent actions aimed at maintaining macroeconomic stability and economic liberalization. It seems that the economic authorities have sustained more transformation efforts during 2015-2018 than in the previous 24 years since 1991. As the relative welfare level in Belarus is currently 64% compared to the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) countries average, Belarus needs to build stronger fundaments of sustainable growth by continuing and accelerating the implementation of institutional transformation, primarily by fostering elimination of existing administrative mechanisms of inefficient resource allocation. Based on the experience of the CEE countries’ economic transformation, we highlight five lessons for the purpose of the economic reforms that Belarus still faces today: keeping macroeconomic stability, restructuring and improving the governance of state-owned enterprises, developing the financial market, increasing taxation efficiency, and deepening fiscal decentralization.

30 Years of Economic Transformation in CEE: Key Five Lessons For Belarus

CASE Center for Social and Economic Research

Inflation in advanced economies is low by historical standards but there is no threat of deflation. Slower economic growth is caused by supply-side constraints rather than low inflation. Below-the-target inflation does not damage the reputation of central banks. Thus, central banks should not try to bring inflation back to the targeted level of 2%. Rather, they should revise the inflation target downwards and publicly explain the rationale for such a move. Risks to the independence of central banks come from their additional mandates (beyond price stability) and populist politics.

Does Low Inflation Pose a Risk to Economic Growth and Central Banks Reputation?

CASE Center for Social and Economic Research

Estonia has Europe’s most transparent tax system (while Poland is second-to-last, in 35th place), and is also known for its pioneering approach to taxation of legal persons’ income. Since 2000, payers of Estonian corporate tax don’t pay tax on their profits as long as they don’t realize them. In principle, this approach should make access to capital easier, spark investment by companies and contribute to faster economic growth. Are these and other positive effects really noticeable in Estonia? Have other countries followed in this country’s footsteps? Would deferment of income tax be possible and beneficial for Poland? How would this affect revenue from tax on corporate profits? Would investors come to see Poland as a tax haven? Does the Estonian system limit tax avoidance and evasion, or actually the opposite? Is such a system fair? Are intermediate solutions possible, which would combine the strengths or limit the weaknesses of the classical and Estonian models of profit tax? These questions are discussed in the mBank-CASE seminar Proceeding no. 163, written by Dmitri Jegorov, deputy general secretary of the Estonian Finance Ministry, who directs the country’s tax and customs policy, Dr. Anna Leszczyłowska of the Poznań University of Economics and Business and Aleksander Łożykowski of the Warsaw School of Economics.

Estonian corporate tax: Lessons for Poland

CASE Center for Social and Economic Research

The trade war between the U.S. and China began in March 2018. The American side raised import duties on aluminum and steel from China, which were later extended to other countries, including Canada, Mexico and the EU member states. This drew a negative reaction from those countries and bilateral negotiations with the U.S. In June 2018 America, referring to Section 301 of its 1974 Trade Act, raised tariffs to 25% on 818 groups of products imported from China, arguing that the tariff increase was a response to years of theft of American intellectual property and dishonest trade practices, which has caused the U.S. trade deficit. Will this trade war mean the collapse of the multilateral trading system and a transition to bilateral relationships? What are the possibilities for increasing tariffs in light of World Trade Organization rules? Can the conflict be resolved using the WTO dispute-resolution mechanism? What are the consequences of the trade war for American consumers and producers, and for suppliers from other countries? How high will tariffs climb as a result of a global trade war? How far can trade volumes and GDP fall if the worst-case scenario comes to pass? Professor Jan J. Michałek and Dr. Przemysław Woźniak give answers to these questions in the mBank-CASE Seminar Proceeding No. 161.

Turning away from globalization? Trade wars and the rules of competition in g...

CASE Center for Social and Economic Research

This Report has been prepared for the European Commission, DG TAXUD under contract TAXUD/2017/DE/329, “Study and Reports on the VAT Gap in the EU-28 Member States” and serves as a follow-up to the six reports published between 2013 and 2018. This Study contains new estimates of the Value Added Tax (VAT) Gap for 2017, as well as updated estimates for 2013-2016. As a novelty in this series of reports, so called “fast VAT Gap estimates” are also presented the year immediately preceding the analysis, namely for 2018. In addition, the study reports the results of the econometric analysis of VAT Gap determinants initiated and initially reported in the 2018 Report (Poniatowski et al., 2018). It also scrutinises the Policy Gap in 2017 as well as the contribution that reduced rates and exemptions made to the theoretical VAT revenue losses.

Study and Reports on the VAT Gap in the EU-28 Member States: 2019 Final Report

CASE Center for Social and Economic Research

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CEE and CIS Economies: Uncertain Prospects of Economic Convergence_Marek Dabrowski

1. Marek Dabrowski CEE and CIS Economies: Uncertain Prospects of Economic Convergence Presentation at the joint NBP & IMF Conference on ‘Building Market Economies in Europe: Lessons and Challenges after 25 Years of Transition’, Warsaw, October 24, 2014

2. Economic convergence analysis • Various meanings of convergence and benchmarks • GDP per capita in current intern. $, in PPP terms • As % of Germany’s GDP per capita in PPP terms • WEO database, October 2014 • Former communist economies in CEE and CIS (except Kosovo) presented in three subgroups: 11 NMS, 5 Western Balkan, 12 CIS 2

3. 3 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 EU NMS Bulgaria Croatia Czech Rep. Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Poland Romania Slovakia Slovenia

4. 4 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Western Balkans Albania Bosnia & Herzegovina Macedonia Montenegro Serbia

5. 5 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 CIS Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Moldova Russia Tajikistan Turkmenistan Ukraine Uzbekistan

6. Barriers of convergence: demand factors • Slower growth of the world economy • Stagnation in Western Europe • Stagnation and security risks in the Eastern neighborhood 6

7. Long-term growth arithmetic based on the neo-classical growth theory • Declining domestic labor resources (due to demography and net outward migration) • Constraints on investment financing – Increase in national saving rates? What about fiscal consolidation? – Return to higher import of saving? • Total factor productivity (regress in economic reforms) 7

8. 8 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Emerging and developing Europe: saving-investment imbalance, % of GDP Investment Gross national savings Source: IMF WEO database , April 2014

9. 9 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Gross national saving, % of GDP: interregional comparison, 2001- 2013 Eurozone CIS E&D_Asia E&D_Europe LAC Source: IMF WEO database , April 2014

10. National reform agenda • Modernization of excessive welfare state • Labor market flexibility • Education reform • Fiscal consolidation • Return to privatization • Business and investment climate • Governance, rule of law, corruption, organized crime, etc. 10

11. European dimension • Importance of similar reforms in all EU member states, especially in large continental economies • Deepening of the Single European Market (services, infrastructure) • Banking Union • Strengthening fiscal and macroeconomic discipline 11

12. Global agenda • Completing the Doha Development Round • Financial sector reform • Macroeconomic policy coordination • Climate change policy 12

CEE and CIS Economies: Uncertain Prospects of Economic Convergence_Marek Dabrowski

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