This document describes four scenarios for the digital marketplace for Queensland government services in the year 2025. It characterizes the scenarios based on two axes: the extent of digital immersion (deep to shallow) and the extent of institutional change (substantial to limited). The four scenarios are: 1) Heritage, 2) New Order, 3) Turbocharge, and 4) Stargate. The document provides examples to illustrate different points along the axes, such as the exponential growth of data and computing power to depict a deep level of digital immersion, and the rise of new platform economies and need for organizational redesign to depict a substantial level of institutional change.

1. www.csiro.au
Fast Forward to Year 2025
Four Scenarios Describing the Digital Marketplace for Queensland
Government Services
Dr Stefan Hajkowicz

2. Data61
Strategic
Foresight

3. 1. Ice Cream
3. Car Trip2. Children
Use activity
books and
games
Take
normal
careEffective
strategy not
yet identified
by humankind
Use
serviettes
Does the strategy
perform in
most/all areas of
overlap?
Scenario & Strategy
Planning Concepts
Things That Could Happen on
a family Holiday (3 scenarios
and 3 strategies)

4. Future of Work | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz & Dr Andrew Reeson4 |
Question: The area of lilly pad doubles every day. It
takes 19 days for the pond to be half-covered. On what
day is the pond completely covered?
Image: Pixabay

5. 5 |
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
PondCoverage(SquareMetres)
Answer: On day 20 (one day later) the pond is covered.
Frog Doesn’t Know
Anything is Happening Yet
Frog
Suspects
Something
Happening
Frog
realises
what’s
happening
& tries to
respond
50% Coverage
Image: Pixabay
100% Coverage

6. 6 |
Characterising the
marketplace for
Queensland Government
services (e.g. health,
education, transport,
accommodation,
community and other
services) in the year
2025.
THE SCENARIOS
1. Heritage 3. Turbocharge
4. Stargate2. New
Order

7. Horizontal Axis
Extent of Digital Immersion (Deep to Shallow)

8. DEEP - The Data Explosion
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Jun
2010
Dec
2010
Jun
2011
Dec
2011
Jun
2012
Dec
2012
Jun
2013
Dec
2013
Jun
2014
Dec
2014
Jun
2015
ThousandTerabytes
Terabytes of data downloaded using
fixed line broadband
And we’d need another
75m to show you the
2025 forecast.
According to IBM The world creates 2.5
quintillion bytes of data daily; 90% of the
data was made in the last 2 years.

9. DEEP – Computing Speed
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1971
1974
1982
1989
1995
1999
2003
2008
2012
Transistors(millions)
Moore’s Law – Number of
transistors on an integrated
circuit doubles at same cost
every 1.5 years
And then there’s quantum computing which could be
10,000 times faster …
Jury’s still out on whether D Wave 2 (second
commercially available quantum computer by
Google, NASA and D Wave Systems) actually
works. But maybe soon?

10. DEEP - The Internet of Things
2006
2 Billion Devices
2015
15 Billion Devices
2020
200 Billion Devices
Data source: Intel Corporation. A Guide to the Internet of Things. Image Wikipedia
225 times more
functionality
40,000 times
more functionality
Metcalfe's Law
Value of a network = n2

11. Wall-Ye VIN Robot Image Source: AFPSource: Wired Magazine
DEEP - The Reach of Robotics

12. DEEP - Task Automation and Job Replacement
“More than 5 million Aussie Jobs [40% of workforce] gone in 10-15 years”
- CEDA Report, Australia’s Future Workforce, 2015
“By one popular estimate 65% of children entering primary school today will ultimately
end up working in completely new job types that don’t yet exist”
- World Economic Forum, The Future of Jobs and Skills, 2016

13. SHALLOW – What Robots Can’t Do
After seven years of effort
by scientists from UC
Berkeley a robot can fold a
towel in …
20 mins.
The Berkeley Robot for the Elimination of Tedious Task (Brett) by Prof Abbeel at UC Berkley. Image source: Youtube
Image source: Su-Star

14. SHALLOW – Photographers Versus Lab Staff
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Employment('000s)
Australian Photographic Industry
Photographers
Developers/printers
Data Source: ABS (2015). 6291.0.55.001 - Labour Force, Australia, Detailed. Canberra, Australian Bureau of Statistics.

15. Out of every 10 Australians 6 have been a victim
of cybercrime
Of all victims 46 percent experienced a
cybercrime incident in the past 12 months
In 2013 A$1.06 billion was stolen from
Australian citizens in cybercrime events
The average financial loss per victim in
2013 was A$201
5 million Australians fell victim to cybercrime last year
SHALLOW – Cybercrime, The Untamed Tiger
Australian Institute of Criminology

16. Future of Work | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz & Dr Andrew Reeson16 |
SHALLOW -
Information
overload, digital
exhaustion and
unplugging
.

17. Vertical Axis
Extent of Institutional Change (Substantial to Limited)

18. Ronald Coase
Ronald Coase working in 2003.
Photo taken at and by University of
Chicago Law School. Wikipedia.
SUBSTANTIAL – Time to Rewrite
the Theory of the Firm?

19. SUBSTANTIAL - New Platform Economies
GLG

20. Future of Work | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz & Dr Andrew Reeson20 |
New Uber
Drivers in
the United
States
A study by Uber
Technologies and
Princeton University,
published 2016
SUBSTANTIAL – When the Model Works, It Grows Quickly

21. SUBSTANTIAL – The Innovation Imperative & Organisational
Redesign
World Economic Forum via Flickr. Zanny Minton Beddoes interviews Clayton Christensen

22. LIMITED – Can’t See the P2P Economy Yet (In Official Data)
But it may be on its way?
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Casual employment by age group
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60+
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Self-employment by age group
Data source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, detailed quarterly labour force survey

23. LIMITED – Hurdles Before the Global P2P Economy
Consumer
trust
Government
regulation
Competition from
longstanding
incumbents
Quality &
reliability
perceptions
A plausible scenario is that in 10 years (the time frame for this study) the
peer-to-peer economy has gone through a few expand-contract cycles but
isn’t too much bigger than now…
Public
relations

24. LIMITED – Organisational Momentum

25. Future of Work | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz & Dr Andrew Reeson25 |
Characterising the
marketplace for
Queensland Government
services (e.g. health,
education, transport,
accommodation,
community and other
services) in the year
2025.
THE SCENARIOS
1. Heritage 3. Turbocharge
4. Stargate2. New
Order

26. www.csiro.au
Data 61
Dr Stefan Hajkowicz
Principal Research Scientist
t +61 7 3833 5540
e Stefan.Hajkowicz@csiro.au
Thank you