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Networked Exponentials
Achieving More In A Hyperconnected World
David Orban
@davidorban, @dotsub

@singularityu, @netsocproj
Themes
Unexpected Consequences
Unmanageable Complexity
Unprecedented Value
1. Context
2. Resources
3. Principles
4. Conclusions
0. Intro To 2x
4
CALL TO ACTION
How would you leverage technology for social impact?
Environment FoodEnergy WaterSecurityPovertyEducation...
5
SU MODEL
10^9+
IMPACT
BILLIONS
OF LIVES
6
OUR EXPONENTIAL TECHNOLOGIES
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
& ROBOTICS
BIOTECHNOLOGY
NANOTECHNOLOGY
& DIGITAL FABRICATION
NETWO...
7
SPEED, EFFICIENCY, COST-EFFECTIVENESS, POWER
COMPUTING IS ACCELERATING TECHNOLOGY
Moore’s Law: Price performance doubles...
8
4DS OF EXPONENTIALS
DECEPTIVE
TO
DISRUPTIVE
D I G I T I Z E D E M A T E R I A L I Z E D E M O N E T I Z E D E M O C R A ...
..., 0.0625, 0.1250, 0.5000, 1, ...
2000: First Human Genome at $3B
..., 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128
2014: Human Genome at $2K
2020: Human Genome at 2c?
1. Context
William Gibson
The future is already here. It is just not evenly distributed yet
Acceleration
Falò
flickr John Wilson
Coevolution
Pyramids
archer10
Dreams
Feudalism
dicktay2000
Industrial Age
sludgeulper
Infrastructure
Network Age
jurvetson
Superstructure
Jurvetson
Wikipedia
Restoring
Wikipedia
Augmenting
Fine Grained Mapping
How can you enhance the beauty of
the world, allying yourself with others
who want to do the same?
Society changes and evo...
Evolutionary Fitness
Resilience
Exponential
If computers could learn, grow and evolve the same way humans can,
the world would be a much better place
Geordie Rose
Interaction Design
Blind
Communicating
Touch
Vision
Conversation
Thinking
“Every object must be smart”
Leandro Agrò
Intelligence Augmentation
Artificial Intelligence
Anthropocene
99%
1% 2%
98%
10.000 BC Today
terrestrial
vertebrates
in the wild
humans
pets
cattle
Anthropocene
AnthropoceneUnsustainable
myfavoritedinosaur.com, LadyofHats, OpenClips
Reason
Technology Is Key
Science
Hierarchy
Network
The Fundamental Thesis
Of The Network Society
1
Widespread social and economic
change only happens once a solid
technological foundation evolves to
make it sustainable.
2
Globally distributed and decentralized
technologies have emerged that
achieve superior results with respect to
centralized...
3
These unstoppable technologies
undermine and disrupt the Nation
State’s supporting pillars. The resulting
socioeconomic or...
Network Society Pillars
Photovoltaics - Ecat?1. Energy
2. Manufacturing
3D hydroponics - Plantlab
plantlab
3. Food
4. Health
5. Learning
P2P Currency - Bitcoin
sylvar
6. Finance
7. Security
8. Policy
thecrazyfilmgirl
Unstoppable
Toolbox
Living In The Network Society
New Organizations
Empowerment
Emancipation
Experiential
Learning
Year Prohibitions Ending
1933 Alcohol
1967 Interracial marriage
1976 Assisted suicide
1999 Same sex marriage
2012 Recreati...
Dignity
Community
Ilya Frankazoid / shutterstock.com
Overcoming Dichotomy
Sustainability For-Profit Nonprofit New
Economical ✔ ✘ ✔
Social &
Environmental ✘ ✔ ✔
Spiking State of Alarm
Incumbent systems
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zongli_Yamen#mediaviewer/File:Zongli_Yamen_members_1894.jpg
Bureaucracies
Resistant
http://bestandworstever.blogspot.it/2012/04/worst-playground-sign-ever.html
Precaution
http://pixabay.com/en/mimic-panic-scratch-woman-person-156928/
Panic
Overreaction
Overreaction
Overreaction
Overreaction
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Don't_Panic_Badge.jpg
It’s All OK
Themes 2
Exponential
Uncertainty
Lifespan Of An S&P 500 CompanyYears
1920s Today
15
67
Photo:Shutterstock
30 m ± 0.5 m
Photo:Shutterstock
1 m/s ±?
Photo:Shutterstock
familymwr
Linear
Exponential
Emotional
Computing
When Machines
Start To Think
IBM Watson
Science And
Engineering
Of Morality
2. Resources
Renewables
Wood
30 Years
Hydrocarbons
50M Years
Fission
4B Years
Fusion
Not Renewable
Photovoltaic
Sudden Shifts
“The latest solar PV project tendered in Dubai returned a low bid* that set a new global
benchmark and is competitive with...
Allocation
Material Resources
P2P Currency - Bitcoin
sylvar
Financial Resources
Energy
Reputation
Ambition
3. PrinciplesSome
Seb Paquet
Any Sufficiently Advanced Job Is Indistinguishable From Play
Transparency
Identity
Trust
Any
body
where
time
{
Open Source
Distributed
Decentralized
Searching
Topic Area
DepthofExploration
A B C
1
2
...
∞
3
... ∞
Solution Search Space
Depth First Search Strategy
A B C
1
2
3
4
5
Topic Area
DepthofExploration
... ∞
Breadth First Search Strategy
A B C D E
1
2
3
Topic Area
DepthofExploration
...
∞
David Gelb
Jiro Ono
Older Strategy
A B C
1
2
...
∞
Specialization
Topic Area
DepthofExploration
3
... ∞
cosimoorban
Richard Saul Wurman
Newer strategy
A B ... ∞
1
2
Cross Fertilization
Topic Area
DepthofExploration
...
∞
3
C
4. Conclusions
Trying
The Privilege of Failure
“The formula for success? 

Double your rate of failure.”
Thomas J. Watson, IBM
“The Internet mul...
Innovating
Inventing
Questions
Answers
Ignorance
Competitiveness
Innovation
Invention!
Adapting
Adopting
𝚫t(idea-action)!0
∞Opportunity
It Is Also About You
davidorban.com
@davidorban
@dotsub
@netsocproj
@singularityu
Image credits: Shutterstock, family
archives, NASA
flickr Paul...
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Networked Exponentials

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We are just at the start exploring the opportunities of the Internet, with 90% or more of the possibilities still unexplored! Over three billion new minds are soon going to connect to the global network. The challenges of decentralization and distribution of previously hierarchical and centralized functions are revolutionizing the design of services. The exponential technologies, with their characteristic unpredictability, are disrupting industries that previously thought themselves immune to the digital revolution. What are the strategies to be able to leverage the new waves of technology? How can we quickly revise experiments creating virtuous circles of evolution? In today's hyper-connected world there are no barriers to entry and the distance between idea and action is reduced to zero!

Published in: Technology

Networked Exponentials

  1. 1. Networked Exponentials Achieving More In A Hyperconnected World
  2. 2. David Orban @davidorban, @dotsub @singularityu, @netsocproj
  3. 3. Themes
  4. 4. Unexpected Consequences
  5. 5. Unmanageable Complexity
  6. 6. Unprecedented Value
  7. 7. 1. Context 2. Resources 3. Principles 4. Conclusions
  8. 8. 0. Intro To 2x
  9. 9. 4 CALL TO ACTION How would you leverage technology for social impact? Environment FoodEnergy WaterSecurityPovertyEducation Global Health Space
  10. 10. 5 SU MODEL 10^9+ IMPACT BILLIONS OF LIVES
  11. 11. 6 OUR EXPONENTIAL TECHNOLOGIES ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE & ROBOTICS BIOTECHNOLOGY NANOTECHNOLOGY & DIGITAL FABRICATION NETWORKS & COMPUTING SYSTEMS
  12. 12. 7 SPEED, EFFICIENCY, COST-EFFECTIVENESS, POWER COMPUTING IS ACCELERATING TECHNOLOGY Moore’s Law: Price performance doubles every 18 months. Applies to all information technology. Integrated CircuitTransistorVacuum TubeRelayElectromechanical 1900 ‘10 ‘20 ‘30 ‘40 ‘50 ‘60 ‘70 ‘80 ‘90 ‘2000 ‘08 ‘10 10-10 10-5 100 105 1010 1015 Performance(Calc./secondper$1000) Time
  13. 13. 8 4DS OF EXPONENTIALS DECEPTIVE TO DISRUPTIVE D I G I T I Z E D E M A T E R I A L I Z E D E M O N E T I Z E D E M O C R A T I Z E Disruptive Stress / Opportunity
  14. 14. ..., 0.0625, 0.1250, 0.5000, 1, ...
  15. 15. 2000: First Human Genome at $3B
  16. 16. ..., 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128
  17. 17. 2014: Human Genome at $2K
  18. 18. 2020: Human Genome at 2c?
  19. 19. 1. Context
  20. 20. William Gibson The future is already here. It is just not evenly distributed yet
  21. 21. Acceleration
  22. 22. Falò flickr John Wilson Coevolution
  23. 23. Pyramids archer10 Dreams
  24. 24. Feudalism dicktay2000
  25. 25. Industrial Age sludgeulper
  26. 26. Infrastructure
  27. 27. Network Age jurvetson Superstructure Jurvetson
  28. 28. Wikipedia Restoring
  29. 29. Wikipedia Augmenting
  30. 30. Fine Grained Mapping
  31. 31. How can you enhance the beauty of the world, allying yourself with others who want to do the same? Society changes and evolvesFractal
  32. 32. Evolutionary Fitness
  33. 33. Resilience
  34. 34. Exponential
  35. 35. If computers could learn, grow and evolve the same way humans can, the world would be a much better place Geordie Rose
  36. 36. Interaction Design
  37. 37. Blind
  38. 38. Communicating
  39. 39. Touch
  40. 40. Vision
  41. 41. Conversation
  42. 42. Thinking
  43. 43. “Every object must be smart” Leandro Agrò
  44. 44. Intelligence Augmentation
  45. 45. Artificial Intelligence
  46. 46. Anthropocene
  47. 47. 99% 1% 2% 98% 10.000 BC Today terrestrial vertebrates in the wild humans pets cattle Anthropocene
  48. 48. AnthropoceneUnsustainable
  49. 49. myfavoritedinosaur.com, LadyofHats, OpenClips Reason
  50. 50. Technology Is Key
  51. 51. Science
  52. 52. Hierarchy
  53. 53. Network
  54. 54. The Fundamental Thesis Of The Network Society
  55. 55. 1
  56. 56. Widespread social and economic change only happens once a solid technological foundation evolves to make it sustainable.
  57. 57. 2
  58. 58. Globally distributed and decentralized technologies have emerged that achieve superior results with respect to centralized and hierarchical ones.
  59. 59. 3
  60. 60. These unstoppable technologies undermine and disrupt the Nation State’s supporting pillars. The resulting socioeconomic organization is the Network Society.
  61. 61. Network Society Pillars
  62. 62. Photovoltaics - Ecat?1. Energy
  63. 63. 2. Manufacturing
  64. 64. 3D hydroponics - Plantlab plantlab 3. Food
  65. 65. 4. Health
  66. 66. 5. Learning
  67. 67. P2P Currency - Bitcoin sylvar 6. Finance
  68. 68. 7. Security
  69. 69. 8. Policy
  70. 70. thecrazyfilmgirl Unstoppable
  71. 71. Toolbox
  72. 72. Living In The Network Society
  73. 73. New Organizations
  74. 74. Empowerment
  75. 75. Emancipation
  76. 76. Experiential
  77. 77. Learning
  78. 78. Year Prohibitions Ending 1933 Alcohol 1967 Interracial marriage 1976 Assisted suicide 1999 Same sex marriage 2012 Recreational marijuana Tolerance
  79. 79. Dignity
  80. 80. Community Ilya Frankazoid / shutterstock.com
  81. 81. Overcoming Dichotomy Sustainability For-Profit Nonprofit New Economical ✔ ✘ ✔ Social & Environmental ✘ ✔ ✔
  82. 82. Spiking State of Alarm
  83. 83. Incumbent systems https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zongli_Yamen#mediaviewer/File:Zongli_Yamen_members_1894.jpg Bureaucracies
  84. 84. Resistant
  85. 85. http://bestandworstever.blogspot.it/2012/04/worst-playground-sign-ever.html Precaution
  86. 86. http://pixabay.com/en/mimic-panic-scratch-woman-person-156928/ Panic
  87. 87. Overreaction
  88. 88. Overreaction
  89. 89. Overreaction
  90. 90. Overreaction
  91. 91. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Don't_Panic_Badge.jpg It’s All OK
  92. 92. Themes 2
  93. 93. Exponential Uncertainty
  94. 94. Lifespan Of An S&P 500 CompanyYears 1920s Today 15 67
  95. 95. Photo:Shutterstock 30 m ± 0.5 m
  96. 96. Photo:Shutterstock 1 m/s ±?
  97. 97. Photo:Shutterstock
  98. 98. familymwr
  99. 99. Linear
  100. 100. Exponential
  101. 101. Emotional Computing
  102. 102. When Machines Start To Think
  103. 103. IBM Watson
  104. 104. Science And Engineering Of Morality
  105. 105. 2. Resources
  106. 106. Renewables
  107. 107. Wood 30 Years
  108. 108. Hydrocarbons 50M Years
  109. 109. Fission 4B Years
  110. 110. Fusion Not Renewable
  111. 111. Photovoltaic
  112. 112. Sudden Shifts
  113. 113. “The latest solar PV project tendered in Dubai returned a low bid* that set a new global benchmark and is competitive with oil at US$10/barrel and gas at US$5/MMBtu.” * 200MW solar tender won by ACWA Power. $US0.0584/kWh without subsidies. http://www.nbad.com/content/dam/NBAD/documents/Business/FOE_Full_Report.pdf
  114. 114. Allocation
  115. 115. Material Resources
  116. 116. P2P Currency - Bitcoin sylvar Financial Resources
  117. 117. Energy
  118. 118. Reputation
  119. 119. Ambition
  120. 120. 3. PrinciplesSome
  121. 121. Seb Paquet Any Sufficiently Advanced Job Is Indistinguishable From Play
  122. 122. Transparency
  123. 123. Identity
  124. 124. Trust
  125. 125. Any body where time {
  126. 126. Open Source Distributed Decentralized
  127. 127. Searching
  128. 128. Topic Area DepthofExploration A B C 1 2 ... ∞ 3 ... ∞ Solution Search Space
  129. 129. Depth First Search Strategy A B C 1 2 3 4 5 Topic Area DepthofExploration ... ∞
  130. 130. Breadth First Search Strategy A B C D E 1 2 3 Topic Area DepthofExploration ... ∞
  131. 131. David Gelb Jiro Ono
  132. 132. Older Strategy A B C 1 2 ... ∞ Specialization Topic Area DepthofExploration 3 ... ∞
  133. 133. cosimoorban Richard Saul Wurman
  134. 134. Newer strategy A B ... ∞ 1 2 Cross Fertilization Topic Area DepthofExploration ... ∞ 3 C
  135. 135. 4. Conclusions
  136. 136. Trying
  137. 137. The Privilege of Failure “The formula for success? 
 Double your rate of failure.” Thomas J. Watson, IBM “The Internet multiplied a thousandfold our failure rate, without increasing the cost of our success” Cory Doctorow
  138. 138. Innovating
  139. 139. Inventing
  140. 140. Questions Answers Ignorance
  141. 141. Competitiveness Innovation Invention!
  142. 142. Adapting
  143. 143. Adopting
  144. 144. 𝚫t(idea-action)!0
  145. 145. ∞Opportunity
  146. 146. It Is Also About You
  147. 147. davidorban.com @davidorban @dotsub @netsocproj @singularityu Image credits: Shutterstock, family archives, NASA flickr Paul Downey

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