The Development Speed Paradox states that minimizing the cycle time of successful products may INCREASE the expected time to market. Minimizing cycle time may simply increase in R&D costs and increase late-stage attrition. This effect is large, robust and sufficient to have precipitated the current R&D productivity crisis.

1. THE DEVELOPMENT
SPEED PARADOX
The Faster You Go, The Longer It Takes
Dennis Lendrem, Institute of Cellular Medicine, Newcastle University, UK

2. The Development Speed Paradox
• Pharmaceutical consultant – clients including GSK, Astra
Zeneca, Lilly, Sanofi – 20+ years in pharmaceuticals.
• NHS trial coordination - currently Project
Manager, Translational Medicine Portfolio.
• Research interests include decision modelling and R&D
portfolio management.
http://www.bestthinking.com/thinkers/dennis-lendrem
https://twitter.com/dennislendrem
@dennislendrem

3. The Development Speed Paradox
• In the 1990s Business Process Reengineering prompted
a reinvention of pharmaceutical development processes.
• Minimizing time to market identified as the key to
improving R&D productivity.
• By placing development tasks in parallel, wherever
possible, we minimize time to market for successful
molecules.

4. The Development Speed Paradox
Before Development Speed Initiative:
1
2
3
4
5
6
After Development Speed Initiative:
1
6
4
2
5
3
Time to Market
< Time Saving? >

5. The Development Speed Paradox
BUT
…and it’s a big but…

6. The Development Speed Paradox
MOST
…molecules don’t make it to market

7. The Development Speed Paradox
• A molecule entering Phase 1 of drug development has
only a 10% chance of successful marketing authorization
approval.

8. The Development Speed Paradox
• We optimized the R&D process around an event which
happens less than 10% of the time.

9. The Development Speed Paradox
• And by placing tasks in parallel we lost the option value of
those early decisions to discontinue development.
• We increased the R&D burn rate – the cost of getting to a
decision point.
• And, wait for it, we actually INCREASED the expected
time to market!

10. The Development Speed Paradox
Lendrem DW, Lendrem BC 2013 Drug Discovery Today http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.drudis.2013.09.002

11. The Development Speed Paradox
• Conclusion?
• When the probability of success is low – ie when most molecules
will not make it to market - the expected time to market is actually
SHORTER for the serial process EVEN THOUGH THE CYCLE
TIME is LONGER.
• This is the Development Speed Paradox

12. The Development Speed Paradox
• By placing tasks in parallel to reduce cycle time we
inadvertently:
• Increased R&D costs
• Increased late-stage attrition rates
• Increased expected time to market
• As a result, the industry became really slick at delivering
late-stage failures to the market place, precipitating the
current R&D productivity crisis.

13. The Development Speed Paradox
Lendrem DW More haste, less development speed. Scrip Magazine.
Dec 1995, 22-23.
Lendrem DW, Lendrem BC Torching the Haystack: Modelling fast-fail
strategies in drug development. Drug Discov Today. 2013 Apr;18(78):331-6. http://dx.doi:10.1016/j.drudis.2012.11.011
Lendrem DW, Lendrem BC The Development Speed Paradox: Can
increasing development speed reduce R&D productivity? Drug Discov
Today. In press. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.drudis.2013.09.002