1. Perkembangan Triwulan Perekonomian
Indonesia:
Terbitlah Terang
Shubham Chaudhuri
Ekonom Senior
14 September 2009
LP3ES
Jakarta, Indonesia

2. Ekonomi Indonesia ditengah krisis global,
dan jalan kedepan
 Indonesia berhasil menembus badai dengan cukup
baik
Mengapa demikian?
 Habis gelap, terbitlah terang
 Agenda kebijakan mendatang

3. Ekonomi Indonesia ditengah krisis global
5 fakta
1. Pertumbuhan terus meningkat
2. …dan lebih kuat dari sejumlah negara lain
3. Kondisi pasar-pasar modal mulai membaik
4. Inflasi berada pada tingkat rendah… namun tetap lebih tinggi
dari negara-negara tetangga
5. Dampak sosial cukup terbatas

4. Ekonomi Indonesia ditengah krisis global
Pertumbuhan mulai meningkat pada awal 2009
 Setelah mandeg pada akhir 2008, angka pertumbuhan triwulan
menunjukan pemulihan pada paruh pertama 2009
 Ekspor pulih lebih cepat dari impor, menopang PDB
 Permintaan domestik tetap kuat, ditopang belanja pemilu pada awal
tahun dan kini belanja stimulus pemerintah
(aggregate GDP growth)
Sources: BPS via CEIC, World Bank

5. Ekonomi Indonesia ditengah krisis global
…indikator lain juga menunjukan pemulihan
120
Index Index
240
 Setelah kemerosotan pada 2008 BI consumer BI retail
110 220
akhir, sejumlah indikator menjukan confidence index sales index
(LHS) (SA; RHS)
pemulihan di awal 2009 100 200
 Kepercayaan konsumen 90 180
mencapai level-level tertinggi
80 160
 Permintaan thdp kendaraan
70 140
bermotor mulai pulih
Danarakesa consumer survey (LHS)
 Kegiatan industri mulaipulih 60 120
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
50
% 90%
Cement
40 Motorcycles
sales Electricity use Vehicles
30 60%
by industry
20
30%
10
0 0%
-10
Industrial -30%
-20
production
-30 -60%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Sources: BPS, GAI, PLN, ICA and Astra via CEIC,
Danarakesa, World Bank

6. Ekonomi Indonesia ditengah krisis global
Pertumbuhan lebih kuat dari negara-negara lain
 Gejolak ekstrim di pasar-pasar modal pada akhir 2008 membuat output
mayoritas ekonomi merosot tajam
 Perekonomian global mulai kembali stabil dan pulih pada triwulan kedua
(GDP growth,
%6 quarterly seasonally adjusted)
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
Philip.
Malaysia
Thailand
India
China
Indonesia
Euro Area
Japan
U.S.
Sources: CEIC, Haver Analytics, BPS, JP Morgan, World Bank

7. Ekonomi Indonesia ditengah krisis global
Pasar-pasar modal mulai stabil
 Yields pada utang Indonesia telah kembali pada level 2008 awal
 Spreads atas utang Indonesia meningkat tajam saat pasar modal
bergejolak, dan Indonesia dinilai sangat rentan
 Volatilitas Indonesia juga dianggap lebih tinggi dari negara-negara lain
 Spreads utang Indonesia kini sudah pulih, dan dibawah level-level pasar
emerging lainnya
(EMBI spreads on sovereign USD bonds) (local currency 5 year bond yields)
12
% 400 %
bps 21
Indonesian USD
10 32018 Indonesia
bond spreads
(LHS) 15
8 240
12
6 160
9
Philippines
4 80 6
2 0 3
Indonesian spreads Thailand
less global emerging market average (RHS) 0
0 -80
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul
Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09
08 08 08 08 09 09 09
Sources: JP Morgan, BI, CEIC, World Bank

8. Ekonomi Indonesia ditengah krisis global
Pasar-pasar modal mulai stabil
 Rupiah, cadangan devisa telah IDR/
12,600 Foreign exchange reserves USD
65
kembali stabil USD bn
(USD bn; RHS)
12,000 60
 Saat gejolak pasar
mencapai puncak , 11,400 55
depresiasi rupiah mencapai
sepertiga nilai semula, 10,800 50
sementara cadangan Exchange rate
10,200 45
devisa turun drastis – (IDR/USD; LHS)
sebelum kemudian pulih 9,600 40
kembali
9,000 35
8,400 30
Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09
Source: BI

9. Ekonomi Indonesia ditengah krisis global
Inflasi, pada titik terendah pun, tetap relatif tinggi
 Inflasi mendekati titik terendah  Kendati demikian, tingkat inflasi
 Harga pangan yang lebih sangat Indonesia tetap jauh diatas mitra-
menguntungkan rumah tangga mitra ekspornya
miskin
 Inflasi inti tidak turun begitu jauh
Sources: BPS, CEIC< World Bank estimates of poverty basket inflation

10. Ekonomi Indonesia ditengah krisis global
Dampak sosialnya terbatas
 Tingkat kemiskinan nasional turun 14.2%
 Pengangguran terbuka juga turun
 Lapangan kerja meningkat lebih cepat daripada populasi usia kerja
 Namun mayoritas pekerjaan berada disektor informal
25 23.4
%
National poverty rate (%) Open unemployment rate
20 19.1
18.4 18.2 17.8
17.4 16.7
16.0 16.6
15.4
14.2
15
11.5 11.2
9.9 10.3
9.1 9.3
10 8.1 8.5 8.1
6.4 6.1
5
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: BPS

11. Mengapa Indonesia berhasil menembus
badai?
 Struktur ekonomi (producers of capital and high-tech goods
suffered larger falls in GDP)
 Tidak terlalu tergantung pada %
2
ekspor – pasar domestik yang 1
Indonesia
besar (ditambah dengan
0
GDP growth (Sep-08 to Mar-09)
momentum) Australia
-1
 Tidak banyak menghasilkan
Canada
-2
produk-produk teknolog tinggi France
Spain
, tapi lebih banyak -3 US
menghasilkan komoditas -4
Netherlands UK
Italy
-5 Korea
Germany
-6
Malaysia
-7
Japan Taiwan
-8
Mexico Thailand
-9
0 4 8 12 16 20 24
%
Medium- and high-tech manufacturing output (% GDP)
Sources: IMF, CEIC, Thomson-
Reuters, RBA, BPS, World Bank

12. Mengapa Indonesia berhasil menembus
badai?
 Memasuki krisis dengan posisi kuat
 Sektor keuangan cukup kuat – tidak banyak dipengaruhi produk-
produk kuangan kritis
 Kekuatan sektor swasta cukup rendah
 Utang publik rendah, posisi fiskal cukup kuat
(central government budget deficit and debt levels)
%
120 %
3.0
100 Deficit 2.5
(RHS)
80 2.0
Public debt
60 (LHS)
1.5
102.5
40 77.1 80.0 76.4 45.6 1.0
65.4 58.3
55.2
20 38.6 34.9 32.9 32.9 0.5
0 0.0
2000
2001
2004
2007
2008
1998
1999
2002
2003
2005
2006
2009*
Sources: MoF and World Bank

13. Mengapa Indonesia berhasil menembus
badai?
 Pemerintah pro-aktif
 Pengamanan pasar modal
 Belanja stimulus plus pemotongan pajak
 Keuangan publik
(Central government budget balance and bank deposits
at the end of the first half of each year, IDR trillions)
IDR trillion IDR trillion
80 160
60 120
40 80
20 40
0 0
Fiscal Balance Govt. deposits at BI (RHS)
-20 -40
S1 2005 S1 2006 S1 2007 S1 2008 S1 2009
Sources: Ministry of Finance and BI

14. Prospek: habis gelap, terbitlah terang
Pemulihan berangsur
Perekonomian global mulai kembali stabil ; diramalkan akan terjadi
 Cina dan beberapa negara berkembang lainnya diramalkan akan
memimpin gelombang pemulihan
 Namun pertumbuhan global diramalkan akan tetap dibawah tingkat
rata-rata ~5%
(Annual growth of
Indonesia’s major export destinations)
Source: World Bank

15. Prospek: habis gelap, terbitlah terang
Harga komoditas , mengalami pemulihan walau
tetap bergejolak
 Harga komoditas internasional telah kembali ke level 2006
 Diramalkan akan terjadi pemulihan skala kecil
(Index, July 2008 peak = 100)
100
Index
Indonesian International
export prices non-energy
80
60
International
40 energy
20
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: World Bank

16. Prospek: habis gelap, terbitlah terang
Artinya bagi Indonesia, sekarang dan kedepan
 Indonesia pada posisi menguntungkan, tapi kondisi global yang melemah
akan menurunkan prospek pertumbuhan sementara mempertahankan
pertumbuhan juga membutuhkan usaha ekstra
 Upaya mengentaskan kemiskinan akan mengalami penurunan
 Defisit anggaran bisa lebih kecil dari anggaran yang ditawarkan
pemerintah Budget deficit may well be smaller than government’s
proposed budgets, suggesting greater scope for stimulatory spending
 Scope to lock-in current low inflation rates
2008 20092008 20102009 20112010 2011
Gross domestic product
Gross domestic product 6.1 4.3 6.1 5.4 4.3 6.0 5.4 6.0
Consumer price index
Consumer price index 9.8 4.7 9.8 5.6 4.7 6.5 5.6 6.5
Major trading partner trading partner growth 2.1
Major growth -1.8 2.1 3.3 -1.8 3.4 3.3 3.4
Poverty rate Poverty rate 15.4 14.215.4 13.614.2 11.5 13.6 11.5
Sources: BPS, CEIC, World Bank. World Bank projections

17. Prospek: habis gelap, terbitlah terang
Namun masih ada sejumlah tantangan global
 Tantangan jangka menengah adalah untuk melepaskan berbagai stimulus
yang digunakan untuk menghadapi krisis :
 Mengurangi stimulus fiskal dan beban utang negara maju menjadi
lebih susah akibat penduduk yang semakin tua dan political will
 Melepaskan stimulus moneter menjadi susah akibat ketidakpastian
seputar lags (terlalu cepat berdampak buruk pada pemulihan, terlallu
lambat dan inflasi melonjak) dan pergeseran dari inflasi produk ke
volatilitas harga aset
 Artinya volatilitas pasar modal kemungkinan akan tetap tinggi (kurs, harga
komoditas, suku bunga, dsb.)
 Indonesia sangat rentan
 Volatilitas, dan dampaknya pada ekonomi, akan tetap lebih kecil dari
akhir 2008
 Tantangan jangka panjang
 Ketidakseimbangan global – membaik tapi tetap tinggi kareana negara-
negara OECD lebih menghemat
 Peralihan struktural ke harga energi dan modal dunia yang lebih tinggi
– ditambah dengan harga karbon yg lebih tinggi?

18. Prospek: habis gelap, terbitlah terang
…resiko-resiko yang berdampak pada outlook
Indonesia
 Skenario
(Annual GDP growth)
Per cent Per cent
(Poverty rate)
7 7
2008 2009 2010 2011
High Low Reference
6 6 Reference projection 15..4 14.2 13.6 11.5
High scenario 15..4 14.2 13.9 11.8
5 5
Low scenario 15..4 14.2 13.4 11.3
4 4
3 3
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Sourcse: BPS, World Bank projections

19. Looking ahead to accelerating growth
Rising or floating
1600 Per-capita real GDP grow th trajectories Indonesia
(constant 2000 USD) "rising"
Thailand
1200 (1979 to 1993)
Philippines
Indonesia
(1993 to 2006)
"floating"
800
400
Indonesia
(1978 to 2007)
0
1980
1986
1994
2000
2008
2010
1978
1982
1984
1988
1990
1992
1996
1998
2002
2004
2006
2012
2014
Source: World Bank

20. Realizing the development agenda
 Indonesia is poised for private sector driven investment and
growth with the right policy improvements for the investment
climate and complementary public investments
 Indonesia can afford to spend more on these development
priorities
 Indonesia’s fiscal and debt position is strong…
 …and there are resources to be had if energy subsidies are
reduced

21. A big push on infrastructure – a two part
strategy
 Indonesia is ready for and needs some breakthroughs:
 Easing the transport bottleneck:
 the Trans-Java highway (trans Sumatra too?)
 This could change global perceptions (Indonesia as a BRIC?) while
being desirable in its own right
 While delivering a big push at the local level by:
 Building world-class cities by Investing in urban infrastructure (mass
transport, housing, water and sanitation) in the key cities that drive
Indonesian competitiveness
 Revitalizing PDAMs to provide water and sanitation to Indonesia’s
citizens (and especially a growing middle class)
 But this will require providing resources and changing incentives –
including through performance linked matching grants to Local
Governments for roads/water/sanitation

22. Accelerating investment climate reforms and
attacking coordination problems
 Take a more aggressive stance toward facilitating domestic and
foreign investment including
 Lower entry barriers, including the time and cost to start a
business, the Negative List (maintaining the positive
improvements in the 2007 revision while relaxing restrictions in key
sectors)
 Lower operating costs with a focus on actionable steps to
improve logistics,
 Improve trade facilitation (replacing paper copies with a single
electronic document and approval) through the National Single
Window
 and control the proliferation of non-tariff barriers that raise
costs and reduce competitiveness
 To solve difficult coordination problems success here might
require a Regulatory Reform Commission with a broad mandate
and authority to balance interests, address policy, coordination
and implementation issues

23. …and the sectors with major reforms have
experienced accelerat growth
 Service sectors, many deregulated at the start of the decade, have been
growing much faster than the rest of the economy
 Partly this reflects the fact that telecoms, retailing and domestic airlines
all experienced rapid growth
 But partly that other sectors, especially mining and manufacturing have
not been doing as well
(average annual growth)
10
%
Agriculture, mining &
manufacturing
8 Services
6
4
2
0
2000-02 2002-04 2004-08
Sources: BPS and World Bank

24. 10/16/08
Putting in place a Social Protection System
Consistent with Middle Income Status
 Opportunities and Challenges
 Indonesia has the resources and institutional capacity to
develop effective SP systems
 as demographic and epidemiological challenges mount
 Key elements
 Build proven and successful social assistance and poverty
alleviation programs (PNPM, BOS, BLT,…) into a
comprehensive social assistance program
 Lay the groundwork for a future National Health Insurance
System that is clear, feasible and affordable
 And put in place a grand bargain between employers and
workers on severance pay that provides worker’s security
without discouraging job creation

25. 10/16/08
But all of this will require a bigger push on
institutional and civil service reforms
 Replicate models of institutional reform underway (at the
Ministry of Finance – especially Tax and Treasury) in other
institutions with significant contact with the public—Customs,
BPOM, Manpower, Trade and Industry…
 Complement ongoing bureaucracy reforms at the institution
level with a modernized regulatory framework and central
institutional set-up for civil service policy making, regulation and
management
 Improve compensation, recruiting and promotion but link it to
accountability
 Allowing fit for function institutions (not one size fits all)

26. Indonesia Economic and Policy Update:
Clearing Skies
Shubham Chaudhuri
Senior Economist
14 September 2009
LP3ES
Jakarta Indonesia