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12.2 cds indices
1.
Copyright © 2018
CapitaLogic Limited Chapter 12 Credit Indices This presentation file is prepared in accordance with Chapter 12 of the text book “Managing Credit Risk Under The Basel III Framework, 3rd ed” Website : https://sites.google.com/site/crmbasel E-mail : crmbasel@gmail.com
2.
Copyright © 2018
CapitaLogic Limited 2 Declaration Copyright © 2018 CapitaLogic Limited. All rights reserved. No part of this presentation file may be reproduced, in any form or by any means, without written permission from CapitaLogic Limited. Authored by Dr. LAM Yat-fai (林日辉), Director, CapitaLogic Limited, Adjunct Professor of Finance, City University of Hong Kong, Doctor of Business Administration, CFA, CAIA, CAMS, FRM, PRM.
3.
Copyright © 2018
CapitaLogic Limited 3 Outline CDS indice CDS index contract
4.
Copyright © 2018
CapitaLogic Limited 4 CDS index The arithmetic average of the CDS spreads of a group of liquidly traded and standardized single name CDSs (from 3 to 125) Originated on specific days in March and September After the origination day, the CDS spreads are calculated by setting the value of the component single name CDSs to zero A metric to represent the systematic credit quality of a specific market segment N k k=1 CDS spread CDS index = N
5.
Copyright © 2018
CapitaLogic Limited 5 CDS index Operated and published by Mark-it CDX family of indices for North America and emerging markets iTraxx family of indices for Europe and Asia http://www.markit.com/markit.jsp?jsppage=in dices.jsp
6.
Copyright © 2018
CapitaLogic Limited 6 Classification Geographic area CDX index North America Emerging market iTraxx Europe Asia Type of debt issuers Corporation Government Credit quality Investment grade High yield grade Crossover Standard tenor 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 10 years
7.
Copyright © 2018
CapitaLogic Limited 7 CDX indices Region Credit quality/theme No. of CDS s Index North America Investment grade 125 CDX.NA.IG Investment grade and high volatility 30 CDX.NA.IG.HVOL High yield grade 100 CDX.NA.HY BB 37 CDX.NA.HY.BB B 46 CDX.NA.HY.B Crossover 35 CDX.NA.XO First lien leveraged loans 100 LCDX Emerging markets 14 CDX.EM Diversified 40 CDX.EM Diversified
8.
Copyright © 2018
CapitaLogic Limited 8 iTraxx indices (1) Region Theme No. of CDSs Index Europe 125 iTraxx Europe High volatility 30 iTraxx Europe HiVol Crossover 75 iTraxx Europe Crossover First lien loan 40 iTraxx LEVX Non-financial 100 iTraxx Non-Financials Senior subordination financial 25 iTraxx Financials Senior Junior subordination financial 25 iTraxx Financials Sub Telecommunications, media and technology 20 iTraxx TMT Industrial 20 iTraxx Industrials Energy industry 20 iTraxx Energy Manufacturers of consumer products 30 iTraxx Consumers Automobile industry 10 iTraxx Autos
9.
Copyright © 2018
CapitaLogic Limited 9 iTraxx indices (2) Region Theme No. of CDSs Index Asia Ex-Japan investment grade 50 iTraxx Asia Ex-Japan high yield 20 iTraxx Asia HY Japan 50 iTraxx Japan Australia 25 iTraxx Australia Country West Europe 15 iTraxx SOVX West Europe Central/East Europe, Middle East and Africa 15 iTraxx SOVX CEEMEA Asia Pacific 10 iTraxx SOVX Asia Pacific Latin America 8 iTraxx SOVX Latin America Global liquid investment grade iTraxx SOVX IG G7 iTraxx SOVX G7 Brazil, Russia, India, China iTraxx SOVX BRIC Example 12.1
10.
Copyright © 2018
CapitaLogic Limited 10 CDS index series On-the-run series Standard tenor + 3 months to standard tenor - 3 months New series once every six months in March and September New group of component single name CDSs proposed by CDS traders Off-the-run series Protection period < Standard tenor - 3 months Very low market attention
11.
Copyright © 2018
CapitaLogic Limited 11 Survival revision to CDS index Initial CDS index Revised CDS index Initial no. of reference debts k k=1 No. of survival debts k k=1 CDS spread Initial no. of reference debts CDS spread No. of survival reference debts
12.
Copyright © 2018
CapitaLogic Limited 12 Not a consistent tool for monitoring of credit market Default effect CDS index increases sharply before the default of a reference debt decreases sharply after the default of a reference debt Discontinuity Abrupt jump on the effective day of a new on- the-run series Selection bias Understate the trend of deterioration or improvement
13.
Copyright © 2018
CapitaLogic Limited 13 Outline CDS index CDS index contract
14.
Copyright © 2018
CapitaLogic Limited 14 CDS index contract A portfolio of single name CDSs Reference debts = Components in a CDS index CDS principal = Contractual principal / N Standardized premium rate 100 bps per quarter for investment grade index 500 bps per quarter for high yield grade index Contract value = Sum of CDS values
15.
Copyright © 2018
CapitaLogic Limited 15 Functional purpose Most liquidly traded credit instrument Trading on the systematic credit quality Low value when systematic credit quality is high High value when systematic credit quality is low Long a CDS index contract when an investor expects the systematic credit quality to deteriorate Short a CDS index contract when an investor expects the systematic credit quality to improve
16.
Copyright © 2018
CapitaLogic Limited 16 Upfront payments Upfront fee Protection buyer to protection seller when the present value of expected protection is higher than that of expected premiums Protection seller to protection buyer when the present value of expected protection is lower than that of expected premiums
17.
Copyright © 2018
CapitaLogic Limited 17 Premiums Standard premium Quarterly Accrued premium Accrued premium of the defaulted reference debt Reduced premium Standard premium Number of survival reference debts × Initial no. of reference debts
18.
Copyright © 2018
CapitaLogic Limited 18 Cash settlement Upon default of a reference debt Contractual principal × LGD of defaulted debt Payoff = Initial number of reference debts
19.
Copyright © 2018
CapitaLogic Limited 19 Valuation Category Factor Impact to value (long position) Variation after origination Impact to credit risk (short position) Reference debt Contractual principal + No + LGD + Moderate + PD + Material + Protection period + Decreasing gradually + Portfolio Concentration of debts + Default dependency + CDS index Premium rate - No
20.
Copyright © 2018
CapitaLogic Limited 20 Credit risk Long position No credit risk Short position XCL as a valid credit risk measure for a CDS index contract with sufficiently large no. of reference debts (e.g. > 30)