1. Thu, Feb 7, 2013
The Day Ahead: ECB Announcement and Jobless
Claims
chammond
BY MATTHEW GRAHAM Certified Mortgage
Planning Specialist
Mortgage Network, Inc
Heading into and out of the first Friday of most months, it's common to
see volatility swell and ebb around the Employment Situation Report.
clint-hammond.com
Granted, in some instances, there are other considerations of sufficient
chammond@mortgagenetwork...
size to throw that conventional wisdom out the door, but all other things
being equal, it generally holds true. Looking at the last part of January Phone: (803) 771-6933
and the first part of February, we may be able to see some of this Mobile: (803) 422-6797
phenomenon in play, but certainly, we know we've had other market Fax: (803) 771-6944
moving considerations. Through whatever combination of post-NFP Facebook
cooling down and "other considerations," stocks and bonds have both
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been consolidating their trading ranges for the past two days.
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Not much has been made of today's ECB Announcement. The lack of attention may justified, or part of
the consolidative patterns seen above could be markets' way of circling the wagons to see what kind of
show will be put on. If the ECB doesn't do it, perhaps the first domestic economic data of the week is the
ticket (Factory Orders and ISM non-manufacturing weren't of enough interest to include). Today brings

2. Jobless Claims at 8:30am. These were largely overlooked last week in favor of juxtaposed heavy-hitters.
The problem here is that Jobless Claims would have to speak quite loudly in order to be heard over
Draghi's press conference which is the only place tomorrow's ECB news could possibly matter (barring
surprises in the announcement). Additionally, there's a ton of European data in the overnight session, as
well as the inception of a potentially headline-producing EU Summit in Brussels. Bottom line, this is the
official "memo" that the EU is back on the table for discussion, and all it took was an absolutely stone
silent week of domestic data and events to do it (though this morning's domestic data does have a fighting
chance vs the week's previous offerings).
MBS Live Econ Calendar:
Week Of Mon, Feb 4 2013 - Fri, Feb 8 2013
Time Event Period Unit Forecast Prior
Mon, Feb 4
10:00 Factory orders mm Dec % 2.2 0.0
Tue, Feb 5
10:00 ISM N-Mfg PMI Jan -- 55.2 56.1
Wed, Feb 6
07:00 Mortgage market index w/e -- -- 822.1
07:00 Mortgage refinance index w/e -- -- 4415.2
Thu, Feb 7
08:30 Initial Jobless Claims w/e K 360 368
08:30 Productivity Revised Q4 % -1.2 2.9
15:00 Consumer credit Dec bl 12.50 16.05
Fri, Feb 8
08:30 International trade mm $ Dec bl -46.0 -48.7
10:00 Wholesale inventories mm Dec % 0.4 0.6
10:00 Wholesale sales mm Dec % 0.6 2.3
* mm: monthly | yy: annual | qq: quarterly | "w/e" in "period" column indicates a weekly report
* Q1: First Quarter | Adv: Advance Release | Pre: Preliminary Release | Fin: Final Release
* (n)SA: (non) Seasonally Adjusted
* PMI: "Purchasing Managers Index"
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