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Job Futures, 22nd November
• Microsoft Veteran
• Founder of          (fastest growing company in Australia of 2011)
• Owner of 57 Signals Pty Ltd
• Founder of
• Co-founder of SpeakSafe, Beyond Cover & Venture Digital
• Non-Exec Director/Adviser to Commerce businesses
• Director of ICOMP
• Blogger at 57signals.com
What am I about to tell you?
                   "You devote all this time to your
                 omni-channel and integrated bloody...
                  and you go on with all this bullshit
                       and the result is that it is
                    1 per cent of your sales.
                   But if you don't go on
                  with the bullshit you are
                  out of fashion, you are
                         not with-it."
                 Gerry Harvey, September 2012
IS THIS IT?
10 years of change
Time Online has grown 20x in ten years
timeline
Online population – 86% of Australians
100%
                                                               86%
             ABS data supports this view,




                                                                TODAY
             “everyone” is connected




                                                                                   Market penetration %
   2.5%          13.5%           34%              34%                    16%
Innovators   Early Adopters   Early Majority   Late Majority            Laggards
Online population – 86% of Australians




                                                               60% of Online
                                                                Australians
Over 65’s online                                                are over 35


 2009
 29%
        2010   2011
        40%
               59%
Online population – 86% of Australians




5% of Online Australians
were too concerned about
 security to shop online
Consumers see the
landscape in a
simplistic way

What are my friends using?
What is useful to me now?
Help, I’m bored!
65% of Australian’s say they ALWAYS tell
                                            people about their bad experience, 24 on
                                            average!1

           26%      74% of unhappy
         Complain
                     customers say
                     nothing to the
                       business
   When
Australian’s                                                               Happy
  get bad                                                                  people tell
  service                                                                  only 101




40%    of  complaints                 are                                           53
considered solved by                  the
Business but not by                   the   People who use Social Media regularly will
                                             tell 53 friends about their bad experience
customer
the success trap
product performance

                                                                             performance demanded
                                                                               at the high end of the
                                                                                             market




                                                                                       performance
                                                                                    demanded in an
                                                                                  emerging segment



                      Clayton Christensen’s Innovator’s Dilemma   time



                                                                         T
funding
disruptive
innovation

                            “GREAT IDEA FOR A WATCH”


• Friends and Family?
• Financial institutions?
• Venture Capital?
• Crowd-funding
• Instant market testing
• Instant customer base
• 5% fee, no equity
Xbox versus OUYA
                                   • Dependent on ecosystem
                                     for profit
                                   • Enormous Barriers to
                                     entry
             product performance




                                                                     • Games are free
                                                                     • Profit on console
                                                                     • Low to mid quality
                                                 OUYA
                                                              time

Clayton Christensen’s Innovator’s Dilemma                                               T
• 63k customers
• Overcome barriers
• Straight to medium
  performance
The next 5 years
Assertion #1:
Privacy is dead
“To read every privacy
policy you encountered
in a single year would
take 76 work days……”
                Simson Garfinkel,
                 Carnegie Mellon
“To read every privacy
     policy you encountered
     in a single year would
     take 76 work days……”
                      Simson Garfinkel,
                       Carnegie Mellon




Is privacy dead, or is it just too hard?
45mins
Assertion #2:
The Smartphone is
a PC replacement
The smartphone in 2017



                         Power for
                         applications

                         Ecommerce
                         Augmented Reality
                         Navigation
Assertion #3:
Connected cars will
be common in 2017
The Connected Car in 2012


                            ABI forecast
                            50m sold in

                            2017
                            Smartphone
                            convergence
                            common by

                            2014
Assertion #4:
Web 3.0 is the
Personal Web
2002 Web 1.0 – the graphical web
2004 Web 2.0 – the interactive web
2012 - 17 Web 3.0 – the personal web
2012 - 17 Web 3.0 – the personal web




Soon Facebook
will track its users
even when they
are logged out
Assertion #5:
Connected devices
will be everywhere
Wearable Internet




Things
Assertion #6:
Non-institutional payments
will become commonplace
COST
Service
Loyalty
QANDA
thank you
?
WHY IS THIS
 SO HARD?
WHY IS THIS   What is bitcoin?
 SO HARD?
              •   Peer to peer money market
              •   No Central Authority
              •   Trades on exchanges for USD
              •   >50k daily transactions
              •   Spurred launch of SilkRoad

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Job futures deck

Editor's Notes

  1. growthwhat isn’t on this slide is the amount of data being consumed due to the minute growth shown here and the speed of access, global monthly consumption has gone from 500pb to 27k pb in this time
  2. Kinect is an example of a sustaining innovation – 8 million units in 60 days – 20 million to date
  3. firstly, let’s accept that there will be as much change in the next 5 years as there was in the past 10!
  4. regardless, the general population has given up, only a few % read the recent privacy policies from Google and Facebook
  5. regardless, the general population has given up, only a few % read the recent privacy policies from Google and Facebook
  6. regardless, the general population has given up, only a few % read the recent privacy policies from Google and Facebook
  7. able to identify products by sights, no longer requiring barcodes
  8. technology is evolving such that all tracking of all users on all devices will soon be common
  9. Wearable devices, or “wearables” for short, have enormous potential for uses in health and fitness, navigation, social networking, commerce, and media. Imagine video games that happen in real space. Or glasses that remind you of your colleague’s name that you really should know. Or paying for a coffee at Starbucks with your watch instead of your phone. Wearables will transform our lives in numerous ways, trivial and substantial, that we are just starting to imagine.In a new Forrester report out today, we argue that wearables will move mainstream once they get serious investment from the “big five” platforms — Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Facebook — and their developer communities, and we give advice to product strategists who want to stay ahead of the wearables curve. Key takeaways:Wearables are here, and more innovation is coming. We’ve all seen the movies: Gadget-laden heroes from James Bond to the Terminator to Iron Man have long relied on voice-controlled watches and heads-up display glasses to extend their powers. Now, those gadgets are a reality, albeit a niche one. Google co-founder Sergei Brin was recently spotted wearing a prototype from Google’s Project Glass. People you know may even be wearing sensor-laden wristbands like the Nike+Fuelband or sneakers like the Adidas adizero F50, which track your speed and workout stats. The military is prototyping dual-focus contact lenses with data displays, while university students experiment with clothing that reacts to our emotions. Nokia has filed a patent for a vibrating tattoo that could alert you when someone calls or texts you — the ultimate wearable.Wearables need backing from the big five platforms to succeed. Wearables without software are just geeky hardware. The big five software platforms -- Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Facebook – each have strengths to bring to wearables. Apple has the most polished marketing, channel, and brand. Google has an open platform and gives license to dabble. Microsoft has the best depth sensor yet. Amazon has information on more than 100 million products and their buyers. Facebook has a Rolodex — and facial recognition — for 800 million people. These platforms — and their developer communities — hold the key to the consumer connection and have the power to elevate wearables from geeky hardware to more mainstream uses.   Wearables will heighten the platform wars — and Google may actually win. Apple's iOS ecosystem has already inspired a host of wearable accessories, like the Lark sleep sensor and now-discontinued Jawbone UP. But Google's open Android platform will inspire broader experimentation for entire wearable solutions. Android is already the platform of choice for Foxconn-funded startupWIMM Labs as well as the Sony SmartWatch.Product strategists who want to stay ahead of the curve should take a cue from companies like Intuit and experiment with wearables now, especially if you’re in an industry that will be disrupted by wearables, including apparel, software, media, gaming, and commerce.
  10. Pinterest is a version of Social Commerce, but is passive in nature, more like social marketing