Indian Truck Industry Analysis and Forecast

1. 30 |EPC&I|JULY 2018
THE INDIAN COMMERCIAL VEHICLE INDUSTRY IS IN FOR INTERESTING TIMES AHEAD AS
MANUFACTURERS ARE LAUNCHING NEWER MODELS TO SUIT THE NEEDS AND
DESIRES OF THEIR CUSTOMERS. HE WHO MANAGES TO MEET THE REQUIREMENTS
WILL GARNER A MAJOR MARKET SHARE, WRITES ATUL SINGH CHANDEL.
THE TIMES,
THEY ARE A CHANGIN’
COVERSTORY
T
he commercial vehicle industry in
India registered a substantial growth
of 20 per cent in the year 2018. The
Medium and Heavy Commercial
Vehicle sectors gained very good momentum
in the sale rate in the last two quarters of the
year.
The Government’s continued focus on the
development of the automobile industry with
the huge amount of money spend on the
improvement of the Infrastructure, especially
improvement of the roads and improving the
overall economic activity, might help increase
the sale rate of the vehicle in the market. The
high benefits of GST have predicted an
increase of around 15 per cent sale for the
higher capacity trucks. The strict implementa-
tion of ban on overloading the vehicles in some
of the states which, when coupled with some of
the end customers specifying the technical
specification requirement of trucks for trans-
portation, has put forward a major require-
ment and need for replacement of the fleet.
The Medium and Heavy Duty trucks sales
growth is expected to rise and reach the next
level of growth in the next financial year. The
high amount of money spent on the develop-
ment of the infrastructure, implementing strict
ban on overloading of trucks, improving the
methodology for producing high output from
mining the resources, emphasising a greater
Atul Singh Chandel,
Director – Market
Intelligence and Branding
Strategy, Autobei
Consulting Group.
focus on enhancing the logistics efficiency on
implementation of GST, which will reap rich
gains, and other government policies for
improvement will pave a strong path for
improvising the commercial vehicle industry.
The 41T GVW is the new and advanced
category vehicle introduced in the market for
the rigid haulage segment. This newly intro-
duced segment will have an edge over the 31T
rigid and the heavy duty tractor trailer seg-
ment. The 41T GW has the capacity and capa-
bility to conquer the Indian market.
At ACG, we are expecting that CAGR of the
small commercial vehicle segment would be
around 7.0 per cent, light commercial vehicle
to be about 2.0 per cent, the medium commer-
cial vehicle segment to register 8.0 per cent
and, finally, the heavy commercial vehicle to
register 4.0 per cent by the year 2023.
There is a sense of positivity and a belief on
the growth of Indian economy and it is
believed that the economy will remain strong
with high impetus from the Government, espe-
cially on the development of Infrastructure,
primarily development of roads and the con-
struction segments. Execution of various gov-
ernment schemes and newly planned projects,
such as Bharatmala, the devoted freight pas-
sageways, the costly river linking project,
increasing demand for coal from the thermal
power sector, and many other development
L1 Focus.indd 30 21/07/2018 12:50:46 AM

2. JULY 2018|EPC&I|31
strategies will provide the required
drive and the demand for heavy duty
trucks in the market. The schemes and
projects have the potential to clear
emerging obstacles for development of
high performance trucks in some of
the high demand segments.
The Indian truck market has wit-
nessed many major developments in
last three years. And, with the impact
of these changes, it is expected to see
some major improvisations in the
upcoming five years in the market.
The commercial vehicle market is
expected to reach 1.2 million units by
the end of the year 2030. The market
size and demand for the Indian Truck in
the year 2018 has reached the growth
rate of around 0.79 million units.
The combined segment of small
commercial vehicles and the heavy
duty trucks has gained more than 85
per cent growth in the current financial
year alone. The major part of the prod-
uct up-gradation and launching new
products in the market belong to value
plus segment, which will make it the
largest market segment. Daimler and
MAN Truck Company have decided to
enter into the Indian market with the
introduction of this segment.
The new reforms on the Indian
economy have provided the belief and
the expectation for GDP growth,
which will help create positive market
sentiments among the customers. The
government will be implement-
ing some new safety norms, which will
be implemented in the vehicle indus-
try in the upcoming 2-3 years. This
should act as a base for the develop-
ment of the segment.
The Industry is slowly but steadily
moving towards the heavy vehicle seg-
ment due to better TCO and ROI. In the
current year, 31T plus segment gained a
higher sale rate and overtook the sale
rate of the highly reliable 25T segment
on the rigid vehicle segment. The tractor
trailer sector has also showed an impro-
vised growth rate of 60 per cent for the
year 2018, which highlights the
improved sale of units when compared
to the sale rate of last year.
In 2010, the industry was dominat-
ed by a low-cost truck with low horse-
power and Cabin Chassis Truck mod-
els. By the end of 2017, the low-cost
segment moved to ‘Value plus’ seg-
ment. Premium segment is still strug-
gling to get good sales volume due to its
low ROI for some applications.
share rate to 6.0 per cent in the year
2018.
BharatBenz is currently leading
the market sale rate with 4.0 per cent
sale of total sold units in the heavy
duty segment and an important 2.0
per cent sale rate of the medium duty
truck segment. It is seen that the high-
ly rich and impressive product portfo-
lio will help the OEMs to create an
impact in the market and have an
influence to increase the market share.
In the premium truck category,
Scania and Volvo are having an
impactful sale rate of 0.2 and 0.4 per
cent respectively.
To analyse and prepare a report on
the budget, value implementation of
the product of the premium truck seg-
ment, we have to consider the data for
a period to a time frame from the year
2010 till 2030, to have a detailed and
significant study on the product and
the market trend.
In the last five years, the pick-up
segment and the heavy duty truck seg-
ments are the most attractive and
Market Share Scenario
Tata Motors is the current market
leader in the small, light and heavy
duty truck segment. Mahindra is lead-
ing the pack in the Pick-up segment.
The latest competitor and leader in
the mini truck segment have showed
an excellent performance and has laid
the platform for the increased market
trending segments in the market.
Tractor trailer is another segment
which is gaining considerable attrac-
tion and improved sale rate in India.
The tipper segment is improvising
the market size in India and has made
sale of around 40,000 units in the
current year. The 31T GVW is show-
ing considerable demand and high
requirement from all sectors of con-
sumers in the market due to its better
operating economy and TCO. In the
premium category – with engine
capacity more than 400hp – Volvo is
still considered as the first choice,
especially for the mining sector work
load.
The new Chinese companies are
trying their best to break the leader-
ship position of Volvo in the Indian
L1 Focus.indd 31 21/07/2018 12:51:01 AM

3. 32 |EPC&I|JULY 2018
market by introducing the heavy
dumper and trying the concept to
replace one dumper against two Volvo
tippers. MAN and BharatBenz have
also tried to dethrone Volvo using the
same approach. However, it was
noticed that this concept will work
only in very few cases. Still, Volvo has
the customers and the market belief to
continue their dominance in the mar-
ket.
The impression created by the
product portfolio in the consumers
mind will play a major role for a stable
growth and steadiness in the market.
The OEM presence and their stability
will also play an important role in
their growth in the trendy market.
The other parameters and well-
planned tactics will have huge impact
for the expansion of the network and
value proposition of the product in the
market, which will have a medium
and long-term impact on the demands
of the market. The E-commerce seg-
ment too will have a positive impact
on the growth of the truck segment, by
initiating some minor but impactful
changes in loading span and payload
capacity of the truck.
Outlook
As per the data, the current sale rate
of the Indian light vehicle segment,
which will include the passenger vehi-
cles category and light commercial
vehicles, have now projected to a
growth rate of 2.0 per cent, which is
considered to make sale of 0.475 mil-
lion units in the year 2018. In case of
the Medium and Heavy Commercial
Vehicle (MHCV) segment sales, it is
predicted to show a growth rate of 18
per cent, which is equal to making sale
of 360,000 units.
OEM Updates
The CLA EVO platform is the perfect
match and meets the changing
requirements of the truck industry in
India. These trucks are built with
higher payload coupled with high effi-
ciency ratings. These vehicles are also
considered as cost-effective when
compared to the other trucks.
Ashok Leyland, which do not have
a strong market hold in the light com-
mercial vehicle (LCV) segment, are
making immense arrangements in
improving their product portfolio in
this segment to over from three plat-
forms to an impressive increase in plat-
form to 6-8 in the upcoming two to
three years. The company is also plan-
ning to improvise their product portfo-
lio in the Medium and Heavy Commer-
cial Vehicle (M&HCV) segment and
they are planning to roll-out their first
Indian made modular platform.
Ashok Leyland expects the modular
platform to contribute 50 to 60 per cent
of the total M&HCV sale rate volume in
the upcoming two years. The first roll
out of the product is expected to be in
the Indian market by the year 2019.
Eicher too have introduced two
new heavy duty trucks – the Eicher
Pro 6049, and the Eicher Pro 6041 –
which are the 49 Ton and 41 Ton cate-
gories respectively. These new model
of trucks are considered to be superior
due to their VEDX BS IV SCR engine,
which will have an impact on the mar-
ket and is sure to shoot up the market
share of the company, which is cur-
rently stagnant at 5.0 per cent. These
trucks are designed by keeping in
mind the needs and requirements of
the consumers and to deliver opti-
mum performance with its peak
power reaching the optimum at 250
HP by keeping customers profit rate
in the mind.
Consumers are like hand-in-glove,
in the sense that the glove should
match the hand size and vice versa.
Similarly, manufacturers should meet
the requirements of the consumer to
maintain the base in the market as
well as match the competition provid-
ed by other makers. All aspects should
fall in a single line for a smooth and
continuous product flow.
COVERSTORY
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