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ACE 427 Homework 1
Spring 2016
Homework 1
The purpose of this homework is to introduce you to one of the most important concepts in
commodity price analysis—the random walk model. To obtain the data for the homework, go to
the farmdoc website and collect the US monthly average price received for hogs from January
1960 – November 2015. A downloadable Excel file with the data can be found at this link:
http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/manage/uspricehistory/us_price_history.html. The link for the
price data is at the bottom of the purple area of the tool.
1. Produce a line plot of the entire data series on one page. Do your best to format the chart
in a useful manner.
2. Produce a scatter plot where x is the previous month hog price and y is the current month
hog price. Note you will lose one observation when you construct the series for this plot.
In other words, generate a second price column which is the original data lagged by one
month, e.g. row #1 Feb 60 Jan 60; row #2 Mar 60 Feb 60, and so on. Show the
regression of y on x on the chart along with the equation and R2.
3. Generate the monthly change in hog prices. Simply subtract last month’s price from this
month’s price.
4. Produce a scatter plot where x is the previous change in the monthly hog price and y is
the current change in the monthly hog price. Note you will lose two observations when
you construct the series for this plot. Show the regression of y on x on the chart along
with the equation and R2.
5. Discussion:
a. What does the plot in #2 suggest about the predictability of monthly hog prices?
b. What does the plot in #4 suggest about the predictability of monthly hog prices?
c. How can the two predictability results be reconciled? Do some digging on the
random walk model. One well written paragraph is sufficient.
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ACE 427 Homework 1
Spring 2016
Homework 1
The purpose of this homework is to introduce you to one of the most important concepts in
commodity price analysis—the random walk model. To obtain the data for the homework, go to
the farmdoc website and collect the US monthly average price received for hogs from January
1960 – November 2015. A downloadable Excel file with the data can be found at this link:
http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/manage/uspricehistory/us_price_history.html. The link for the
price data is at the bottom of the purple area of the tool.
1. Produce a line plot of the entire data series on one page. Do your best to format the chart
in a useful manner.
2. Produce a scatter plot where x is the previous month hog price and y is the current month
hog price. Note you will lose one observation when you construct the series for this plot.
In other words, generate a second price column which is the original data lagged by one
month, e.g. row #1 Feb 60 Jan 60; row #2 Mar 60 Feb 60, and so on. Show the
regression of y on x on the chart along with the equation and R2.
3. Generate the monthly change in hog prices. Simply subtract last month’s price from this
month’s price.
4. Produce a scatter plot where x is the previous change in the monthly hog price and y is
the current change in the monthly hog price. Note you will lose two observations when
you construct the series for this plot. Show the regression of y on x on the chart along
with the equation and R2.
5. Discussion:
a. What does the plot in #2 suggest about the predictability of monthly hog prices?
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永久可查学历认证【微信：A575476】【(QMUE毕业证书)英国爱丁堡玛格丽特女王大学毕业证成绩单Offer】【微信：A575476】（留信学历认证永久存档查询）采用学校原版纸张、特殊工艺完全按照原版一比一制作（包括：隐形水印，阴影底纹，钢印LOGO烫金烫银，LOGO烫金烫银复合重叠，文字图案浮雕，激光镭射，紫外荧光，温感，复印防伪）行业标杆！精益求精，诚心合作，真诚制作！多年品质 ,按需精细制作，24小时接单,全套进口原装设备，十五年致力于帮助留学生解决难题，业务范围有加拿大、英国、澳洲、韩国、美国、新加坡，新西兰等学历材料，包您满意。
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一、工作未确定，回国需先给父母、亲戚朋友看下文凭的情况，办理一份就读学校的毕业证【微信：A575476】文凭即可
二、回国进私企、外企、自己做生意的情况，这些单位是不查询毕业证真伪的，而且国内没有渠道去查询国外文凭的真假，也不需要提供真实教育部认证。鉴于此，办理一份毕业证【微信：A575476】即可
三、进国企，银行，事业单位，考公务员等等，这些单位是必需要提供真实教育部认证的，办理教育部认证所需资料众多且烦琐，所有材料您都必须提供原件，我们凭借丰富的经验，快捷的绿色通道帮您快速整合材料，让您少走弯路。
留信网认证的作用:
1:该专业认证可证明留学生真实身份
2:同时对留学生所学专业登记给予评定
3:国家专业人才认证中心颁发入库证书
4:这个认证书并且可以归档倒地方
5:凡事获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安局网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人才网入库信息
6:个人职称评审加20分
7:个人信誉贷款加10分
8:在国家人才网主办的国家网络招聘大会中纳入资料，供国家高端企业选择人才
→ 【关于价格问题（保证一手价格）
我们所定的价格是非常合理的，而且我们现在做得单子大多数都是代理和回头客户介绍的所以一般现在有新的单子 我给客户的都是第一手的代理价格，因为我想坦诚对待大家 不想跟大家在价格方面浪费时间
对于老客户或者被老客户介绍过来的朋友，我们都会适当给一些优惠。
选择实体注册公司办理，更放心，更安全！我们的承诺：可来公司面谈，可签订合同，会陪同客户一起到教育部认证窗口递交认证材料，客户在教育部官方认证查询网站查询到认证通过结果后付款，不成功不收费！
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