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胡勝正 全球化下的分配正義20150418
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余紀忠文教基金會主辦【分配正義新詮釋下的發展與規劃】講座 中研院院士 胡勝正 『全球化下的分配正義』
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胡勝正 全球化下的分配正義20150418
1.
全球化下的分配正義 胡勝正 中央大學/中央研究院 2015.4.18 余紀忠基金會 1
2.
前言 • 「低成長不是問題,分配不公平才是」: 史 迪格里兹 –
不公平的代價是:經濟體系不穩定、沒效率、 成長緩慢、陷民主體制於岌岌可危之境。 – 「解決分配不公平之道在於移除『包容性成長 (Inclusive Growth) 』的障礙,達成決策與執行 的新境界」:OECD (見附錄) – 「包容性成長 」:擴大贏者圈,讓每個人都能 發揮潛力,分享經濟成長與繁榮的利益。 2
3.
大綱 • 前言 • 分配現況 •
分配惡化的原因 • 多元化的分配正義政策 • 結論 3
4.
分配不公平現況 • 靜態不公平 – 五等分位所得差距、吉尼係數的啟示:經濟危 機,低所得著受害大於高所得者; –
台灣的99% vs 1%; – 有感數據:低薪、高房價。 • 動態不公平:機會不公平-玻璃天花板 • 未來困境:台灣進入勞動人口減少(2015年 達高峰)、全體人口減少(2021年達高峰)時代 4
5.
分配不公平現況 0.25 0.27 0.29 0.31 0.33 0.35 0.37 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 五等分位所得差距(政府移轉收支前) 五等分位所得差距(倍) 吉尼係數 5
6.
分配不公平現況 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Top 1%所得份額 6
7.
房價所得比 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 全國 台北市 7
8.
名目與實質薪資(2014年幣值) 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 名目薪資 實質薪資(2014年幣值) 2001 8
9.
勞動及總人口減少時代 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 2052 2054 2056 2058 2060 總人口數 15-64 2015 2021 9
10.
分配惡化的原因 • 全球化與兩岸經貿交流:OECD研究顯示,全 球化只能解釋分配不均的部分原因。兩岸經貿 交流亦同。 • 教育機會的不平等:台灣的主要問題不在高等 教育的普及與否,而在高等教育與勞動市場變 化脫節。 •
經濟轉型緩慢才是近年貧富差距惡化的真正肇 因:缺乏創新、以壓縮成本取勝的營運模式導 致投資趨緩,(高薪)就業機會創造不足、薪資 停滯。 10
11.
多元化的分配正義政策 • 租稅政策:加重資本課稅,受限於與香港及 新加坡的租稅競爭。 − 安倍政府的第三支箭:
GPIF資產配置將股票投資由20% 提升至50%。 • 社福政策:紓緩經濟衰退對基層勞工的傷害 – 移轉收支使五等分位所得差距下降1.45倍,由7.53倍下 降1.45倍至6.08倍 – 社福支出已佔政府歲出的20%,高於經濟發展支出 (15%),且將隨人口高齡化快速升高; – 提升社福制度效率,照顧邊緣家庭; – 提升社保基金營運效率;社保(勞動)基金的社會責任不 在股市護盤,而在強化上市公司之公司治理,創造就 業機會。 11
12.
多元化的分配正義政策 • 結構政策:轉型經濟加速,以創新驅動營 運模式,提升產品附加價值,帶動薪資成 長。 – 由下而上的創新機制:提供早期創業資金
(窮人 銀行為例),鼓勵年輕人、中小企業創新。 – 善用網路金融協助年輕人創業:群眾募資 (crowd funding) 12
13.
結論 • 分配公平不只在縮小所得差距,更在機會 平等。 13
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