Presentación sobre la situación de la economía mundial y de los mercados financieros. Como idea de inversión se recomienda un fondo de renta fija corporativa.
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Conferencia mensual sobre mercados financieros e ideas de inversión
1. 15 de Octubre de 2012
Conferencia mensual sobre mercados e ideas de inversión
Mejor Gestora de Renta Fija Gama Amplia
por segundo año consecutivo
2. Agenda
Consecuencias de la bajada de rating de España
Situación macro
Recomendación de activos
Idea de inversión;
– AXA WF Euro Credit Plus
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6. Agenda
Consecuencias de la bajada de Rating de España
Situación macro
Recomendación de activos
Idea de inversión;
– AXA WF Euro Credit Plus
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7. Key points – Major systemic obstacles removed
€-crisis: Major obstacles have been removed
– The ECB translates “do whatever it takes” into ‘Outright Monetary Transaction’ (OMT) to deal with malfunctioning
monetary policy and to curtail short-term risk premia linked to expectations of a €-break-up
– The German Constitutional Court endorses the ESM
– EU Commission details the road to a Euro Banking Union and proposes new ECB power for banking supervision
Global cyclical indicators confirm a tri-polar world
– US: high frequency indicators surprised on the upside; labor market remains the “Achilles heel”; recovery in housing
– € area: manufacturing-related data confirms a broad-based recessionary environment
– China: more resilient, yet incoming data confirms soft patch
The overall macro outlook remains weak – the likelihood of a relapse has, however, receded as policy makers are
doing their utmost to help the to overcome the weak economic backdrop
Economic policy in developed economies will have to rely on monetary action as fiscal levers remain
geared toward austerity
Significant risks remain:
– Inconclusive negotiations on the euro area Banking Union
– Further downgrades of various euro countries
– US fiscal cliff
All our macro forecasts in appendix 1
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8. Agenda
Consecuencias de la bajada de Rating de España
Situación macro
Recomendación de activos
Idea de inversión;
– AXA WF Euro Credit Plus
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10. Appendix 1: Marco forecasts
Source: FMI, Datastream, AXA IM Research
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11. Agenda
Consecuencias de la bajada de Rating de España
Situación macro
Recomendación de activos
Idea de inversión;
– AXA WF Euro Credit Plus
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12. Donde gestionamos la renta fija
London
13 Portfolio Managers
2 Portfolio Engineers
Greenwich 3 FI Traders Frankfurt
18 Portfolio Managers 3 Portfolio Managers
1 Portfolio Engineer
6 FI Traders
Paris Zurich
41 Portfolio Managers 4 Portfolio Managers
7 Portfolio Engineers
9 Fundamental Credit Analysts
13 FI Traders
Singapore
3 Portfolio Managers
The expertise & global scale required to outperform
Source: AXA IM as at 30/06/2012.
13. El equipo de crédito
Theo Zemek
Global Head of AXA Fixed Income
Graham Nicol James Gledhill
Global Head of High Yield
Global Head of Credit
Deputy, Global Head of Credit
Anne Velot Virginie Derue Nicole Montoya Mark Benstead (3) Steve Nelson (7) Carl Whitbeck
Co-Head of Euro Credit Co-Head of Euro Credit Head of Money Markets & Global Credit Head of Sterling Credit Head of USIG Credit Head of US High Yield
US Dollar Credit US Dollar Credit European &
Euro Credit Money Markets Global Credit Sterling Credit Private Loans
Investment Grade High Yield Global High Yield
Paris, Frankfurt Paris Paris London London
Greenwich Greenwich London
Eleonore Bunel Mathieu Cranz Mikael Pacot Aurélien Billard Ian Bates Debbie Dias David Fourgoux (5) Vern Bond Sharmin Ahmed
Head of Money Markets
Fabien Collado (1) John Coultrap Maud Debreuil Damien Maisonniac Nicolas Trindade Frank Olszewski (7) Michael Graham Yves Berger
Thomas Coudert Marc Dakoure Fabien Delavigne Lionel Pernias Brian McMillan (7) Peter Vecchio Julie Lamirel
Boutaina Deixonne Christophe Herpet Emmanuel Philis Nick Hayes (4) David Polson (7)
Ismael Lecanu Hadiza Lair Maria Quesada Alex Kim (6) (7)
Anne Ollier (2) Marie Zedda Cheryl Beusch
Stefanie Erner
Nicolas Tamisier
Robert Houle
Philippe Zhang
Mike McCartan
Stefan Wolpert
Head of AXA FI Germany
Sarah Nichols
Karla Emmerich
David Shapiro
Source: AXA IM as at 31/07/2012. (1) Investment Assistant; also member of the PEG. (2) Portfolio Manager and Head of Insurance Specialists Paris, reports to Matthieu-Emmanuel Levilion. (3) Also
Insurance Specialist and Head of AXA Fixed Income UK & Asia. (4) Also member of the Sterling Rates team. (5) Also Insurance Specialist. (6) Assistant Portfolio Manager. (7)Investment Grade PMAs also
providing High Yield sector coverage.
14. Credito Euro:1/3 del mercado son emisores de fuera de la zona Euro
Fuente: BoA Merrill Lynch indices a 17/08/2012
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15. Sector no Financiero: Los fundamentales de las empresas son buenos.
Resto del mundo
Europa continental Facturacón por aéreas geográficas
32%
43% La evolución de ingresos de
las compañías europeas ya
no dependen tanto de sus
ventas en Europa.
N. America
UK
17%
8%
Desapalancamiento
Las compañías están
haciendo un gran
esfuerzo para reducir su
apalancamiento.
Fuente: UBS, basado en FTSE Euro First 300 excluyendo financieras, a 31/10/2011
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16. Sector Financiero: Los ratios de los bancos siguen mejorando
Los bancos están mejor preparados para
una eventual crisis
Los fundamentos de los bancos siguen
mejorando con un aumento de ratio Tier 1 de
39pb durante el segundo trimestre de 2012,
impulsado por la acumulación de capital y el
desapalancamiento. El ratio Tier 1 esta en
11,3%.
Reducción del ratio crédito/deposito
Los depósitos han aumentado en un 1.5%
desde septiembre de 2011, mientras los
créditos han bajado un 1.8%, por lo que el
ratio crédito/deposito se ha reducido a 109%
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17. Características del fondo (número de bonos en cartera 201)
AXA WF Euro Credit Plus
Cartera índice AXA WF Euro
Credit Plus
Rating BBB+ A-
AXA WF Euro Credit Plus se dirige a
aquellos inversores que buscan una
Yield to Call 3.33% 2.43% elevada rentabilidad y la
Objetivo y revalorización del capital a través de
una cartera de deuda corporativa
estrategia de denominada en Euros con una
Spread Duration 4.30 3.70 inversión distribución táctica oportunista
posicionada entre los títulos
”investment grade” y los títulos
de deuda “high yield”.
Duración modificada 3.56 3.69
Objetivo de tracking Máximo de 2.5%
Error Merrill Lynch EMU
Cash 4%
Índice de referencia Corporate 1-10
% High Yield 6.29%
Patrimonio (€ mn) € 384M
Fuente: AXA IM Paris, a 28/09/2012
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18. Nuestras opiniones de inversión aplicadas a la cartera
del fondo AXA WF Euro Credit Plus
Bearish view on November
Closing short positions on financials In late May, started to close
Added peripheral Profit taking on From August, defensive From October (senior and sub) and peripheral exposure short peripheral and
financials as positioning (liquidity added senior from December subordinated exposure
exposure via
primary market well High Yield >10%) positions
No High Yield then From January, continued to
Assed some Underweight on financials neutralized increase financials exposure, Mid June, started to go
Added exposure
senior debt . both senior and subordinated both senior and subordinated, long peripheral and
on insurance
on an improved backdrop for subordinated exposure
subordinated subordinated, towards positions
debt and defensive corporates the economy and the asset
covered class
In mid-March reduced Spanish positions, then
Italian and financial positions
Fuente: AXA IM Paris, a 28/09/2012
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19. Foto de la cartera a septiembre de 2012
Desglose por sectores Desglose por paises
Fuente: BofA Merrill Lynch & AXA IM a 28/09/2012.
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20. 12 años con una solida trayectoria
Solo en dos de los 12 años de trayectoria el fondo ha tenido rendimientos negativos.
Fuente: AXA IM a 28/09/2012. Los datos proporcionadas relacionados con meses o años anteriores y a rentabilidades pasadas no son un indicador fiable de resultados futuros. Los
cálculos de rentabilidad se basan en la reinversión de los dividendos netos o de gestión. El índice de rendimiento se calcula sobre la base de dividendos reinvertidos. No se puede
garantizar que los beneficios producidos en el pasado se lograran en el futuro o que el fondo no tendrá perdidas en el futuro.
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21. Rendimientos de los últimos 5 años del fondo AXA WF Euro Credit Plus A
Fuente: AXA IM a 28/09/2012. Los datos proporcionadas relacionados con meses o años anteriores y a rentabilidades pasadas no son un indicador fiable de resultados futuros. Los
cálculos de rentabilidad se basan en la reinversión de los dividendos netos o de gestión. El índice de rendimiento se calcula sobre la base de dividendos reinvertidos. No se puede
garantizar que los beneficios producidos en el pasado se lograran en el futuro o que el fondo no tendrá perdidas en el futuro.
* Morningstar ha calificado el fondo AXA WF Euro Credit Plus “I” con 5 estrellas, la acción “A” del fondo esta calificado con 4 estrellas.
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24. Disclaimer 1/2
The information contained herein is confidential information supplied at the sole request of the recipient. By accepting this information, the
recipient agrees that it will not divulge any such information to any other party. Any reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is
prohibited. This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute, on AXA Investment Managers Paris part, an offer to buy
or sell or a solicitation or investment advice. Due to its simplification, this document is partial and the information can be subjective. AXA
Investment Managers Paris may but shall not be obligated to update or otherwise revise this document without any prior notice. All information
in this document is established on the accounting information or on market data basis. All accounting information is un-audited. AXA
Investment Managers Paris disclaims any and all liability relating to a decision based on or for reliance on this document. The most recent
prospectus is available to all investors and must be read prior subscription and the decision whether to invest or not must be based on the
information contained in the prospectus. Furthermore, due to the subjective nature of these analysis and opinions, these data, projections,
forecasts, anticipations, hypothesis and/or opinions are not necessary used or followed by AXA IM Paris’ management teams or its affiliates
who may act based on their own opinions and as independent departments within the Company.
The figures provided relate to previous months or years and past performance is not a reliable indicator as to future performance.
In the case where the currency of investment is different from the Fund’s reference currency the gains are capable of varying considerably
due to the fluctuations of the exchange rate.
Information contained in this document may be updated from time to time. Information contained herein may vary from previous or future
published versions of this document.
Depending on the investment strategy used the information contained herein may be more detailed than the information disclosed in the
prospectus. Any such information (i) does not constitute a representation or undertaking on the part of the investment manager; (ii) is
subjective and (iii) may be modified at any time within the limits provided in the fund prospectus.
Redex share class Risk factor relating to interest rate: Interest rate risk involves the risk that, when interest rates increase along the
curve, as the market value of fixed-income securities tends to decline, as a result the Net Asset Value of standard shares tends to decrease.
Conversely, when interest rates decline along the curve, the market value of fixed-income securities tends to increase, as a result, the Net
Asset Value of the standard Shares tend to increase. Long-term fixed-income securities will normally have more price volatility because of this
risk than short-term securities. The aim of the listed derivatives overlay strategy implemented at the Redex Share Class level is to reduce the
exposure to interest rates parallel shifts along the curves. Therefore, the impact of interest rates parallel shifts on the Redex Share Net Asset
Value tends to be reduced compared to the impact of such move on the standard Shares. When interest rates increase, as the market value
of fixed-income securities tends to decline, the market value of the overlay strategy tends to increase, as a result the impact of the interest
rates increase on the value of the Redex Shares tends to be more limited. Conversely, when interest rates decline, the market value of fixed-
income securities tends to increase, and the market value of the overlay strategy tends to decrease as a result the impact of the interest rates
decrease on the value of the Redex Shares tends to be more limited.
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25. Disclaimer 2/2
The fund is registered for public distribution in Luxembourg. Please check the countries of registration with the asset manager, or on the web site
www.axa-im-funds.com where a fund registration map is available.
AXA WORLD FUNDS ‘s registered office is 49, avenue J.F Kennedy L-1885 Luxembourg. The Company is registered under the number B. 63.116
at the “Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés” The Company is a Luxembourg SICAV UCITS III approved by the CSSF.
AXA Funds Management, a société anonyme organized under the laws of Luxembourg with the Luxembourg Register Number B 32 223RC, and
whose registered office is located at 49, Avenue J.F. Kennedy L-1885 Luxembourg
Editor : AXA INVESTMENT MANAGERS PARIS, a company incorporated under the laws of France, having its registered office located at Cœur
Défense Tour B La Défense 4, 100, Esplanade du Général de Gaulle 92400 Courbevoie, registered with the Nanterre Trade and Companies
Register under number 353 534 506, a Portfolio Management Company, holder of AMF approval no. GP 92-08, issued on 7 April 1992.
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