Misperception of feedbacks: another source of vulnerability in social-ecologi...
Marine Regime Shifts Causes and Consequences
1. Marine
Regime
Shifts
Drivers
and
Impacts
on
Ecosystem
Services
!
!
Rocha,
J.C;
Yletyinen,
J;
Biggs,
R;
Blenckner,
T
&
G.
Peterson
2. The Anthropocene
Social challenge: Understand patters of causes and consequences
of regime shifts
!
How common they are?
Where are they likely to occur?
Who will be most affected?
What can we do to avoid them?
What possible interactions or cascading effects?
3.
4. Blenckner T, Niiranen S (2013) Biodiversity - Marine Food-Web Structure, Stability, and Regime Shifts. In: Climate
Vulnerability, Understanding and Addressing Threats to Essential Resources (ed. Pielke R), Elsevier, 1570 pp
Science challenge: understand phenomena where experimentation
is rarely an option, data availability is poor, and time for action a
constraint
5. to assess co-occurrence patterns of the drivers
and ecosystem services consequences that
can inform better managerial practices
6. Regime Shifts DataBase
Established or proposed
feedback mechanisms exist
that maintain the different
regimes = hysteresis
!
The shift substantially affect the
set of ecosystem services
provided by a social-ecological
system
!
The shift persists on time scale
that impacts on people and
society
7. Mechanism
Existence
Well
established
Speculative
Contested
Contested
Speculative
Well established
Mangroves collapse
!
Thermohaline circulation
collapse
Fisheries collapse
!
Marine Eutrophication
!
Marine food webs
Arctic sea ice
Salt marshes to flat
tidal
Greenland Ice Sheet
collapse
West Antarctica Ice
Sheet
Bivalves collapse
!
Coral transitions
!
Hypoxia
!
Kelps transitions
!
Sea grass transitions
Evidence type
!
Models
Paleo observation
Contemporary
observation
Experiments
Other
!
Reversibility
!
Irreversible
Hysteretic
Reversible
Unknown
8. Methods
•Tripartite network and
one-mode projections: 13
Regime shifts + 54 Drivers
+ 26 Ecosystem Services
•10
4
random bipartite
graphs to explore
significance of couplings:
mean degree, co-
occurrence & clustering
coefficient statistics on
one-mode projections.
Regime shiftsDrivers
9. Drivers Network
Co−occurrence Index
s−squared
Density
1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0
02468
Regime Shifts Network
Co−occurrence Index
s−squared
Density
16 20 240.00.10.20.30.4
Average Degree in simulated
Drivers Networks
Mean Degree
Density
23 24 25 26 27
0.00.20.40.60.8
Average Degree in simulated
Regime Shifts Networks
Mean Degree
Density
9 10 11 12 13
0.00.51.01.5
Ecosystem Services Network
Co−occurrence Index
s−squared
Density
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
01234
Regime Shifts Network
Co−occurrence Index
s−squared
Density
22 24 26
0.00.20.40.60.81.0
Average Degree in simulated
Ecosystem Services Networks
Mean Degree
Density
12 16 20 24
0.00.20.40.60.81.01.2
Average Degree in simulated
Regime Shifts Networks
Mean Degree
Density
10 14 18
0.000.020.040.060.080.10
10. Agriculture
Atmospheric CO2
Deforestation
Demand
Erosion
Fishing
Floods Global warming
Human population
Nutrients inputs
Sea level rise
Sea surface temperature
Sewage
Temperature
Upwellings
Urbanization
Arctic sea ice
Bivalves collapse
Coral transitions
Fisheries collapse
Hypoxia
Kelps transitions
Mangroves collapse
Marine eutrophication
Marine foodwebs
Salt marshes
Sea grassThermohaline circulation
Western Antarctic IceSheet Collapse
Food production related drivers, coastal development
and climate change are the most important drivers and
they co-occur very strongly.
11. Soil formation
Primary production
Nutrient cycling
Water cycling
Biodiversity
Freshwater
FoodcropsLivestock
Fisheries
Wild animal and plant foods
Timber
Wood fuel
Feed, fuel & fiber crops
Climate regulation
Water purificationWater regulation
Regulation of soil erosion
Pest and disease regulation
Natural hazard regulation
Recreation
Aesthetic values
Knowledge and educational values
Spiritual and religious
Arctic sea ice
Bivalves collapse
Coral transitions
Fisheries collapse
Hypoxia
Kelps transitions
Mangroves collapse
Marine eutrophication
Marine foodwebs
Salt marshes
Sea Grass
Termohaline circulation
Western Antarctic IceSheet Collapse
The most co-occurring ecosystem services are fisheries,
biodiversity, nutrient cycling, water purification.
Many regime shifts in coastal ecosystems have impacts
on aesthetic values and recreation.
13. Bivalves collapse
Sea grass
Marine eutrophication
Fisheries collapse
Coral transitions
Hypoxia
Mangroves collapse
Salt marshes
Kelps transitions
Marine food webs
Arctic sea ice
Thermohaline circulation
WAIS Collapse
Local
National
International
Proportion of RS Drivers
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
WAISCollapse
Fisheriescollapse
Marinefoodwebs
Saltmarshes
Arcticseaice
Thermohalinecirculation
Mangrovescollapse
Seagrass
Coraltransitions
Hypoxia
Marineeutrophication
Bivalvescollapse
Kelpstransitions
Human Indirect Activities
Biogeochemical Cycle
Biodiversity Loss
Land Cover Change
Climate
Biophysical
Water
0 2 4 6 8 10
Value
0515
Count
A B
Climate drivers are common to all regime shifts but don’t co-
occur strongly, while strong co-occurrence is found in
biophysical, land cover change and biochemical drivers.
Managing regime shifts requires multi-level governance, but
we can build resilience locally
14. Conclusions
• Key drivers cluster: food production, climate change
and coastal development
• Key ecosystem services cluster: cultural services,
biodiversity and primary production
• Managing marine regime shifts requires coordinated
actions across scales
• Avoiding regime shifts requires addressing multiple
drivers, shared drivers offer strategies for prioritisation
and synergistic action.
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