Disease & regime shifts montpellier

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Disease & regime shifts montpellier

  1. 1. Disease outbreaks: regime shifts & contagion disturbance Juan Carlos Rocha & Garry Peterson
  2. 2. Regime Shifts Regime shifts are abrupt reorganization of a system’s structure and function. A regime correspond to characteristic behavior of the system maintained by mutually reinforcing processes or feedbacks. The shift occurs when the strength of such feedbacks change, usually driven by cumulative change in slow variables, external disturbances or shocks. Fig. 3. Catastrophe manifold illustrating that the three types of regime shifts are special cases along a continuum of internal ecosystem structure. Adapted from Jones and Walters (1976). J.S. Collie et al. / Progress in Oceanography 60 (2004) 281–302 287 (Collie 2004)
  3. 3. Regime Shifts Driven by diseases Regime Shifts Impacting ‘Pest & disease regulation’
  4. 4. But disease outbreaks can be part of the process = feedbacks! • Classic example: Poverty traps on coupled SES • Cases where the shift occurs on the frequency of the disturbance lead to chaotic dynamics: strange cycles • The frequency of disturbance (outbreaks - fire) is partially determined by the system’s history = memory • Basin boundary coalitions: pesticides that kill natural enemies or development of drug resistance Ngonghala et al 2014
  5. 5. Scale, connectivity & speed
  6. 6. Next Steps: Embracing the complexity of diseases outbreaks • Vulnerability depends on temporal and spatial connectivity • Speed, connectivity and scale is increasing: what does it mean for resilience? • Frontiers of research: theory development and evidence from case studies
  7. 7. Subscribe to our newsletter www.stockholmresilience.su.se/subscribe Thank you! Questions?? e-mail: juan.rocha@su.se twitter: @juanrocha slides: http://criticaltransitions.wordpress.com/ | data: www.regimeshifts.rog

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