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Mike Pearce (MOO.COM) How big is it? A guide to agile estimation practices Agile on the Beach 2014
- 1. Mike Pearce How big is it?
- 3. Introduction
- 6. What is estimating? Estimation problems Planning What does it all mean?
- 7. Unluckily all these positive assertions are contrary to that very experience, which is pleaded for them, nor have we any idea of self, after the manner it is here explain’d. For from what impression cou’d this idea be deriv’d? This question ’tis impossible to answer without a manifest contradiction and absurdity; and yet ’tis a question, which must necessarily be answer’d, if we wou’d have the idea of self pass for clear and intelligible. It must be some one impression, that gives rise to every real idea. But self or person is not any one impression, but that to which our several impressions and ideas are suppos’d to have a reference. If any impression gives rise to the idea of self, that impression must continue invariably the same, thro’ the whole course of our lives; since self is suppos’d to exist after that manner. But there is no impression constant and invariable. Pain and pleasure, grief and joy, passions and sensations succeed each other, and never all exist at the same time. It cannot, therefore, be from any of these impressions, or from any other, that the idea of self is deriv’d; and consequently there is no such idea. But there is no impression constant and invariable. Pain and pleasure, grief and joy, passions and sensations succeed each other, and never all exist at the same time. It cannot, therefore, be from any of these impressions, or from any other, that the idea of self is deriv’d; and consequently there is no such idea.
- 8. What is estimating? Estimation problems Planning What does it all mean? What is estimating?
- 9. Wikipedia by ~jjjohn~ - http://flic.kr/p/4CYJT1 "Estimation is the process of finding an estimate, or approximation, which is a value that is usable for some purpose even if input data may be incomplete, uncertain, or unstable." "Estimation is the process of finding an estimate, or approximation, which is a value that is usable for some purpose even if input data may be incomplete, uncertain, or unstable." "Estimation is the process of finding an estimate, or approximation, which is a value that is usable for some purpose even if input data may be incomplete, uncertain, or unstable."
- 10. Guessing?
- 11. Wikipedia by ~jjjohn~ - http://flic.kr/p/4CYJT1 [A Guestimate] is defined as an estimate made without using adequate or complete information, or, more strongly, as an estimate arrived at by guesswork or conjecture. [A Guestimate] is defined as an estimate made without using adequate or complete information, or, more strongly, as an estimate arrived at by guesswork or conjecture. [A Guestimate] is defined as an estimate made without using adequate or complete information, or, more strongly, as an estimate arrived at by guesswork or conjecture.
- 12. Yes, guessing
- 13. What is estimating Estimation problems Planning What does it all mean The problem with estimates
- 14. Problem #1 The lone ranger
- 17. Illusion of invulnerability. Collective rationalisation. Belief in inherent morality. Stereotyped views of out-groups. Direct pressure on dissenters Self-censorship Illusion of unanimity Self-appointed ‘mindguards’ Symptoms
- 18. Delphi Method
- 19. Wideband Delphi
- 20. Unluckily all these positive assertions are contrary to that very experience, which is pleaded for them, nor have we any idea of self, after the manner it is here explain’d. For from what impression cou’d this idea be deriv’d? This question ’tis impossible to answer without a manifest contradiction and absurdity; and yet ’tis a question, which must necessarily be answer’d, if we wou’d have the idea of self pass for clear and intelligible. It must be some one impression, that gives rise to every real idea. But self or person is not any one impression, but that to which our several impressions and ideas are suppos’d to have a reference. If any impression gives rise to the idea of self, that impression must continue invariably the same, thro’ the whole course of our lives; since self is suppos’d to exist after that manner. But there is no impression constant and invariable. Pain and pleasure, grief and joy, passions and sensations succeed each other, and never all exist at the same time. It cannot, therefore, be from any of these impressions, or from any other, that the idea of self is deriv’d; and consequently there is no such idea. But there is no impression constant and invariable. Pain and pleasure, grief and joy, passions and sensations succeed each other, and never all exist at the same time. It cannot, therefore, be from any of these impressions, or from any other, that the idea of self is deriv’d; and consequently there is no such idea. Unluckily all these positive assertions are contrary to that very experience, which is pleaded for them, nor have we any idea of self, after the manner it is here explain’d. For from what impression cou’d this idea be deriv’d? This question ’tis impossible to answer without a manifest contradiction and absurdity; and yet ’tis a question, which must necessarily be answer’d, if we wou’d have the idea of self pass for clear and intelligible. It must be some one impression, that gives rise to every real idea. But self or person is not any one impression, but that to which our several impressions and ideas are suppos’d to have a reference. If any impression gives rise to the idea of self, that impression must continue invariably the same, thro’ the whole course of our lives; since self is suppos’d to exist after that manner. But there is no impression constant and invariable. Pain and pleasure, grief and joy, passions and sensations succeed each other, and never all exist at the same time. It cannot, therefore, be from any of these impressions, or from any other, that the idea of self is deriv’d; and consequently there is no such idea. But there is no impression constant and invariable. Pain and pleasure, grief and joy, passions and sensations succeed each other, and never all exist at the same time. It cannot, therefore, be from any of these impressions, or from any other, that the idea of self is deriv’d; and consequently there is no such idea. 263
- 21. Problem #2 Estimation is hard
- 22. “Ideal Time”
- 24. Vierordt’s Law (1968): ! Retrospectively, "short" intervals of time tend to be overestimated, and "long" intervals of time tend to be underestimated. 1818 - 1884 Vierordt’s Law (1968): ! Retrospectively, "short" intervals of time tend to be overestimated, and "long" intervals of time tend to be underestimated.
- 25. (Buehler & Griffin, 2003; Buehler, Griffin, & MacDonald, 1997; Buehler, Griffin, & Ross, 1994; Bueh ler, Messervey, & Griffin, 2005; Byram, 1997; Connolly & Dean, 1997; Francis Smythe & Robertson, 1999; Grif fin & Buehler, 1999; Jorgensen & Sjoberg, 2001; Josephs & Hahn, 1995; Koneçni & Ebbesen, 1976; König, 2005; Koole & Van’t Spijker, 2000; Kruger & Evans, 2004; MolokkenOstvold & Jorgensen, 2005; NewbyClark, Ross, Buehler, Koehler, & Griffin, 2000; Taylor, Pham, Rivkin, & Armor, 1998)
- 30. Fibonacci
- 31. Fibonacci 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55 ...
- 32. Modified Fibonacci 0, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 20, 40, 100, ?
- 33. Story Points 0, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 20, 40, 100, ?
- 34. 0 1 2 3 5 8 13 20 40 100 =3 (or, as big as a 1 and 2) Bigger than a 1, a 2 AND a 3 Too big
- 35. Let’s build a thing with Audience Participation!
- 36. And that’s all there is to arbitrary, relative estimates... ! Simple, right?
- 38. Tshirt sizes XS, S, M, L, XL
- 39. Tshirt sizes Goat designed by Joseph Gray from The Noun Project
- 40. Cycle Time How long does it take for one story to get from here to here. To do In Progress Testing Done In 8 days, we will be here
- 41. Tips Do not do overtime No anchoring Make assumptions explicit Build in slack
- 43. Spike
- 44. Problem #4 Getting it wrong
- 47. The law of large numbers
- 48. Problem #5 Misuse of estimates
- 49. Estimate != Quote By Dan’s Photos = http://flic.kr/p/NPEcM
- 50. Wikipedia by ~jjjohn~ - http://flic.kr/p/4CYJT1 "Estimation is the process of finding an estimate, or approximation, which is a value that is usable for some purpose even if input data may be incomplete, uncertain, or unstable."
- 53. Documentation (5%) Dependencies Env/platform setup Non-spike research Overheads
- 56. So, which method is best?
- 57. What is estimating Estimation problems Planning What does it all mean Planning
- 59. Vision Road Map Release Planning Sprint Planning
- 60. 3 8 13 8 2 1 3 8 5 8 1 5 Gut feel for sprint 1Priorityorder
- 64. 3 8 13 8 2 1 3 8 5 8 1 5 Gut feel for sprint 1Priorityorder
- 65. Begin sprint 1
- 66. Velocity =13
- 67. 5 8 13 8 2 1 3 8 5 8 1 5 Sprint 1 successfulPriorityorder Sprint 2 Sprint 3 Sprint 4 Sprint 5 Sprint 6 Velocity: 13
- 68. Begin sprint 2
- 69. Velocity = 15
- 70. 5 8 13 8 2 1 3 8 5 8 1 5 Sprint 1 successfulPriorityorder Sprint 2 successful Sprint 3 Sprint 4 Sprint 5 Velocity: 13 Velocity: 14
- 72. Start of 8 sprint project Average 15pts Best 20pts Worst 10pts Almost definitely Probably Maybe Not a chance Total No. of Points: 300
- 73. Re-estimating
- 75. Vision Road Map Release Planning Sprint Planning Standup
- 76. What is estimating Estimation problems Planning The answer... What does it all mean?
- 77. About this big…
- 78. Dan North Embracing Uncertainty “Some unexpected bad things will happen.”
- 79. #noEstimates
- 80. Empirical data will help improve accuracy
- 81. Develop and refine your own estimation models
- 82. “I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.” General Dwight. D. Eisenhower
- 86. How do I start a project?
- 87. With this guy By huangjiahui - http://flic.kr/p/5pE12U White Elephant Sizing
- 88. 1 2 3 5 8 13 20 ?
- 89. As a ... I need ... So that ... 3 As a ... I need ... So that ... 2 As a ... I need ... So that ... 8 ENOUGH! Estimated Velocity: 13
- 90. CAVEAT LECTOR
- 91. As a ... I need ... So that ... 3 As a ... I need ... So that ... 2 As a ... I need ... So that ... 8 1 4 2 3 1 4 9 3 1 6 2 7 46 6 Total Hours For Sprint 1: 144 As a ... I need ... So that ... 3 6 74 4 4 2
- 92. Hours Range Ti mBo bBe x Ma x Min Ran ge 6 7 60-70 3 5 30-50 4 5 40-50 Hours per sprint 130-170
- 93. MATHS FUN Estimated No. Sprints x Estimated hours for sprint 1 = Total Hours For Project23 x 144 = 3312Total Hours For Project / Min Sprint Hours = Minimum Number of Sprints3312 / 130 = 25 sprintsTotal Hours For Project / Max Sprint Hours = Maximum Number of Sprints3312 / 170 = 19 sprints Total story points / Estimated Velocity = Estimated No. Sprints 300 / 13 = 23
- 94. 19-25 sprints