Can we know the future? By John Wilkins
“Prediction is hard, especially about the future.” –Yogi Berra Why is the future so hard to predict? - History is chaotic - Physics is indeterminate - Biology is contingent - Humans are complex - We do not have all the facts History is chaotic - By “history” I mean the changes in the world state over time - A simple system can become complex - A complex system can become stable and simple On average - Single objects have unpredictable paths - Ensembles of objects can be more easily predicted - The “Mule” Effect (Isaac Asimov, Foundation series) History has layers - Physics – what is possible - Biology – what is likely - Society – what is permitted - Technology – what is chosen Physics is indeterminate - We cannot predict very far even with physics - Complex systems behave chaotically - We do not have all the information - Anyway, quantum Biology is contingent - Evolution is not linear - What can evolve need not - Constraints on what can evolve exist, but can be changed - Chance and adaptation Humans are complex - Admiral Rickover and the thorium reactor - The anti-nuclear movement - Social progressivism and conservationism - Result: Global warming Technology’s hope - Green Revolution – Norman Borlaug and the new crops - The failure of Ehrlich’s predictions – “100s of millions will die by 1980” - Ehrlich was right in his wrongness Now we have a global population of 7 billion, and oil has peaked We don’t know what we don’t know - How can we predict the unpredictable? - It isn’t through wish fulfilment (ad hoc thinking) - If the future is uncertain, our solutions to it will not be certain until they either fail or succeed (post hoc thinking) Why don’t we know? - We know the world more or less at present - However, we have degrees of uncertainty (distance, information flow) - Information is lost from the present and the past - We have insufficient information to predict the future What do we do? - Don’t despair - Don’t be over optimistic - Don’t think good intentions equal good outcomes Video here: https://youtu.be/b2J4Yesrqrw Further issues raised in this talk addressed during Q&A with Greg Adamson here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L96f-j4s8t4 Held at Future day in Melbourne 2015
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Can we know the future? By John Wilkins
- 1. Can we know the future? John S Wilkins
- 2. –Yogi Berra “Prediction is hard, especially about the future.”
- 3. Once upon a time…
- 4. Once upon a time…
- 5. Once upon a time…
- 6. Once upon a time…
- 7. Once upon a time…
- 8. Once upon a time…
- 9. Once upon a time…
- 10. Once upon a time…
- 11. Once upon a time…
- 12. Once upon a time…
- 13. Why is the future so hard to predict?
- 14. Why is the future so hard to predict? History is chaotic
- 15. Why is the future so hard to predict? History is chaotic Physics is indeterminate
- 16. Why is the future so hard to predict? History is chaotic Physics is indeterminate Biology is contingent
- 17. Why is the future so hard to predict? History is chaotic Physics is indeterminate Biology is contingent Humans are complex
- 18. Why is the future so hard to predict? History is chaotic Physics is indeterminate Biology is contingent Humans are complex We do not have all the facts
- 20. History is chaotic By “history” I mean the changes in the world state over time
- 21. History is chaotic By “history” I mean the changes in the world state over time A simple system can become complex
- 22. History is chaotic By “history” I mean the changes in the world state over time A simple system can become complex A complex system can become stable and simple
- 23. On average
- 24. On average Single objects have unpredictable paths
- 25. On average Single objects have unpredictable paths Ensembles of objects can be more easily predicted
- 26. On average Single objects have unpredictable paths Ensembles of objects can be more easily predicted The “Mule” Effect (Isaac Asimov, Foundation series)
- 28. History has layers Physics – what is possible
- 29. History has layers Physics – what is possible Biology – what is likely
- 30. History has layers Physics – what is possible Biology – what is likely Society – what is permitted
- 31. History has layers Physics – what is possible Biology – what is likely Society – what is permitted Technology – what is chosen
- 33. Physics is indeterminate We cannot predict very far even with physics
- 34. Physics is indeterminate We cannot predict very far even with physics Complex systems behave chaotically
- 35. Physics is indeterminate We cannot predict very far even with physics Complex systems behave chaotically We do not have all the information
- 36. Physics is indeterminate We cannot predict very far even with physics Complex systems behave chaotically We do not have all the information Anyway, quantum
- 38. Biology is contingent Evolution is not linear
- 39. Biology is contingent Evolution is not linear What can evolve need not
- 40. Biology is contingent Evolution is not linear What can evolve need not Constraints on what can evolve exist, but can be changed
- 41. Biology is contingent Evolution is not linear What can evolve need not Constraints on what can evolve exist, but can be changed Chance and adaptation
- 43. Humans are complex Admiral Rickover and the thorium reactor
- 44. Humans are complex Admiral Rickover and the thorium reactor The anti-nuclear movement
- 45. Humans are complex Admiral Rickover and the thorium reactor The anti-nuclear movement Social progressivism and conservationism
- 46. Humans are complex Admiral Rickover and the thorium reactor The anti-nuclear movement Social progressivism and conservationism Result: Global warming
- 48. Technology’s hope Green Revolution – Norman Borlaug and the new crops
- 49. Technology’s hope Green Revolution – Norman Borlaug and the new crops The failure of Ehrlich’s predictions – “100s of millions will die by 1980”
- 50. Technology’s hope Green Revolution – Norman Borlaug and the new crops The failure of Ehrlich’s predictions – “100s of millions will die by 1980” Ehrlich was right in his wrongness
- 51. Technology’s hope Green Revolution – Norman Borlaug and the new crops The failure of Ehrlich’s predictions – “100s of millions will die by 1980” Ehrlich was right in his wrongness Now we have a global population of 7 billion, and oil has peaked
- 52. We don’t know what we don’t know
- 53. We don’t know what we don’t know How can we predict the unpredictable?
- 54. We don’t know what we don’t know How can we predict the unpredictable? It isn’t through wish fulfilment (ad hoc thinking)
- 55. We don’t know what we don’t know How can we predict the unpredictable? It isn’t through wish fulfilment (ad hoc thinking) If the future is uncertain, our solutions to it will not be certain until they either fail or succeed (post hoc thinking)
- 56. Why don’t we know?
- 57. Why don’t we know?
- 58. Why don’t we know? We know the world more or less at present
- 59. Why don’t we know? We know the world more or less at present However, we have degrees of uncertainty (distance, information flow)
- 60. Why don’t we know? We know the world more or less at present However, we have degrees of uncertainty (distance, information flow) Information is lost from the present and the past
- 61. Why don’t we know? We know the world more or less at present However, we have degrees of uncertainty (distance, information flow) Information is lost from the present and the past We have insufficient information to predict the future
- 62. I’m sorry Dave. I’m afraid I don’t know that
- 63. What do we do?
- 64. What do we do? Don’t despair
- 65. What do we do? Don’t despair Don’t be over optimistic
- 66. What do we do? Don’t despair Don’t be over optimistic Don’t think good intentions equal good outcomes
- 67. Thank you for listening to a professional pessimist