Article in The Times of Israel by Andy Blumenthal: Even though Yom Kippur has passed, as Jews, we always believe that there is time to walk back from the precipice. Thus, with the risk of “nuclear Armageddon” now the highest in sixty years since the Cuban Missile Crisis, there is no time for Putin to waste in ending this needless war in Ukraine and the proxy war with the West.

1. 10/8/22, 11:30 PM Putin on the Precipice | Andy Blumenthal | The Blogs
https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/putin-on-the-precipice/ 1/5
THE BLOGS
Andy Blumenthal
Leadership With Heart
Putin on the Precipice
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2. 10/8/22, 11:30 PM Putin on the Precipice | Andy Blumenthal | The Blogs
https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/putin-on-the-precipice/ 2/5
Credit Photo: Andy Blumenthal
Even though Yom Kippur has passed, as Jews, we always believe that there is
time to walk back from the precipice. Thus, with the risk of “nuclear
Armageddon” now the highest in sixty years since the Cuban Missile Crisis,
there is no time for Putin to waste in ending this needless war in Ukraine and
the proxy war with the West.
For Putin, it all seemed like no big deal in Ukraine: Superpower Russia is
fighting little Russia (i.e., Ukraine). Russia after denuclearizing Ukraine in 1994.
Russia with 40 miles of armor heading towards Kyiv. Russia with the largest land
mass of any country in the world. Russia leveraging their “energy weapon”
against Europe. Russia with more than a decade of military modernization.
Russia with the people under dictatorship and censorship and no one but Putin
in the driver’s seat. Russia after taking Crimea and large areas of Donbas in a
2014 blitzkrieg. It all should’ve been as easy as pie to now take the rest of the
Ukrainian enchilada.

3. 10/8/22, 11:30 PM Putin on the Precipice | Andy Blumenthal | The Blogs
https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/putin-on-the-precipice/ 3/5
But as we know, the U.S. and NATO stepped up with sanctions and loads of
weapons and assistance to Ukraine. Crucially, as we know, it has been the
HIMARS multiple launch rocket system that can hit Russian command and
control, ammunition depots, transport hubs, and troops with pinpoint accuracy.
Now, the Russians have been hightailing it out of hotly contested areas as fast
as you can say “retreat!”
Of course, Putin is loosely and irresponsibly playing the nuclear card and
threatening to escalate in order to deescalate. More likely, as I’ve written
previously, he will opt for a convenient accident at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear
Power Station. It will have the same dramatic and deadly effect of shocking
Ukraine and the West to think twice about continuing the fight with Russia as a
tactical nuke, but with plausible deniability for Putin (“Who us do something
like that, never! It’s all a plot by the Satanic West!”). However, even that will not
save Russia from a humiliating battlefield defeat in Ukraine.
At some point, Putin will need to think about the error of his ways in starting
this war in Ukraine. He underestimated the enemy. He overestimated Russia. He
ignored the corruption of the Russia oligarchs who pocketed the money from his
military modernization and instead produced garbage for the warfighters. He
overplayed the military drama of encircling Ukraine and amassing his forces on
their border to scare them into submission. He underplayed the low and sinking
morale of the Russian troops who haven’t fallen for his propaganda of
dangerous Ukrainian neo-Nazis and threats to Russian speakers and the culture
of its people living there. Despite Putin’s repression of the people, the media,
and any dissent to his military ambitions, Russians are being sent to fight and
die in Ukraine for nothing, and many seem to know it and are running for the
border to exit.
Regardless of his immense power, Putin is 70 years old now, and no one is ever
too old or smug to ignore when they made a mistake. The toll of Putin’s
mistakes is becoming extraordinarily high. By amplifying it and calling up

4. 10/8/22, 11:30 PM Putin on the Precipice | Andy Blumenthal | The Blogs
https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/putin-on-the-precipice/ 4/5
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Andy Blumenthal is a dynamic, award-winning leader who writes frequently about Jewish life,
culture, and security. All opinions are his own.
300,000 more poorly trained and ill-equipped Russians to the front, he is
digging in his heels instead of course-correcting. In addition, Russia has aligned
itself with China and Iran against the West and is even now using Iranian
kamikaze drones to continue deadly attacks.
One way or the other, Russia will go on even if they have to replace Putin.
Russia and its people can always claim that Putin was a madman and that they
have no desire to fight, preferring instead to live in peace and prosperity with
the West. With Putin off the geopolitical playing field, Russia and the West can
shore up confidence-building measures and, over time, perhaps even build up
some level of trust and cooperation again. Of course, Russia will need to pay up
big time to rebuild the senseless destruction they brought to Ukraine, but that’s
a small price to pay to return from the very depths of nuclear brinkmanship with
the West.
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