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Mobile Is Eating the World (2015)
The document discusses the pervasive influence of mobile technology, predicting that by 2020, 80% of adults will own smartphones, leading to unprecedented internet access and interaction. It highlights how mobile devices are reshaping various industries, driving innovations and altering consumer behavior, as mobile ousts legacy technologies like PCs and traditional media. The evolution of mobile not only increases the scale of technology adoption but also enhances usability and accessibility, creating vast new opportunities in the tech landscape.
Mobile Is Eating the World (2015)
- 1. MOBILE IS EATING THE WORLD BENEDICTEVANS @BenedictEvans May 2015
- 2. Mobile is making technologyuniversal
- 3. 3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 1995 2000 Billion peopleonline Growth into the bubble Source: ITU, a16z
- 4. 4 0 1 2 3 1995 2000 2014 Billionpeople online People online Smartphones Growth since the bubble Source: ITU, a16z
- 5. 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 1995 2000 20142020 Billion people online People online Smartphones Growth into the future - everyone Another 1bn people will come online, all due to smartphones Source: ITU, a16z
- 6. 6 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Global adult population NoInternet No smartphone The end of the unconnected Smartphones drive much greater internet penetration Source: a16z, World Bank, Apple, Google, Nokia
- 7. 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Population Adults MobileOnline population Smart phones PCs Global population (bn) Growth to 2020 2014 The world in 2020 By 2020 80% of adults on earth will have a smartphone Source: World Bank, GSMA, a16z
- 8. An iPhone 6CPU has 625 times more transistors than a 1995 Pentium. iPhone 6 launch weekend: Apple sold ~25x more CPU transistors than were in all the PCs on Earth in 1995. Everyone gets a pocket supercomputer. Source: Apple, Intel, a16z
- 9. 9 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Cellular coverage 3Gcoverage now 3G coverage by 2019 Improved water Electricity Mobile users Sub-Saharan Africa population coverage Yes, everyone The utility of mobile increases as income falls Source: Ericsson, McKinsey
- 10. 10 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 PC average iPhoneaverage Android average Android entry price Device price ($) $35 Android takes computing everywhere Cost of power and connectivity becomes as material as the cost of the device Source: Barclays Capital, Apple, a16z
- 11. 11 We go fromthis… Source: James Cridland (https://www.flickr.com/photos/jamescridland/612782641)11
- 12. 12 … To this Source:Alan Knott-Craig12
- 13. Mobile remakes the techindustry
- 14. 14 0 100 200 300 400 Mar-95 Sep-96 Mar-98Sep-99 Mar-01 Sep-02 Mar-04 Sep-05 Mar-07 Sep-08 Mar-10 Sep-11 Mar-13 Sep-14 Quarterly unit shipments (m) iOS & Android PCs The smartphone industry dwarfs PCs 4bn people buying phones every 2 years instead of 1.6bn buying PCs every 5 years Source: Gartner, Apple, Google, a16z
- 15. 15 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Games consoles CamerasTVs PCs Smartphones Mobile phones Unit sales, 2014 (bn) Phones have scale that’s unique in tech The first tech product to be bought by almost everyone on earth, every 2-3 years Source: CIPA, Displaysearch, Gartner, companies, a16z
- 16. 16 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2008 2009 20102011 2012 2013 2014 Smartphone & tablet share of global CE retail revenue Mobile scale eats consumer electronics Smartphones & tablets are now close to half of the consumer electronics industry Source: GfK, a16z
- 17. 17 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Microsoft share of personal computing device sales* Shift away from Microsoft Microsoft’s near-absence from mobile has ended its dominance • Smartphones, tablets, PCs & Macs. • Source: Gartner, Apple, Google, Microsoft, Nokia, Blackberry, a16z
- 18. 18 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2007 2008 20092010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Million people Chinese mobile internet users EU population USA population China is the biggest smartphone market Historic dominance starting to shift Source: CNNIC, US Census Bureau, Eurostat
- 19. 19 iPhone, 34% Xiaomi, 20%MEIZU,11% Samsung, 8% Huawei, 4% Other, 23% What phone brands do Chinese teenagers want? (Q4 2014) Chinese handset players growing fast Chinese brands are stronger than any foreign company – except Apple Source: Baidu Apple has 15% of the overall market (same as global) - but much stronger brand appeal New Chinese OEMs with premium positioning are growing fast
- 20. 20 Tech center ofgravity moves from Seattle and Finland (and Japan) Old New Computing platform Microsoft Apple & Google Chips Intel ARM, Qualcomm, Mediatek Mobile Nokia & DoCoMo China, San Francisco
- 21. 21 Mobile supply chaindominates all tech The size of the smartphone business means it is driving into every other part of tech Augmented Reality, Virtual Reality, Wearables, Internet of Things, connected cars, connected home, drones etc Hardware tech for almost anything is on the shelf The challenge is vision and route to market Flood of smartphone components – Lego for technology Contract manufacturers can assemble those components into anything
- 22.
- 23. 23 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2012 2013 2014 Mobileshare of 'Black Friday' ecommerce Traffic Value The growth of post-PC devices Smartphones and tablets taking half of browsing and a third of purchasing Source: IBM, a16z
- 24. 24 Only at home 8% Mainlyat home 16% Both at home and outside 66% Mainly out of home 9% Only out of home 1% Where do you use the internet on your phone? (UK, Q1 2014) ‘Mobile’ doesn’t really mean mobile Mobile devices are used everywhere, not just when people are ‘mobile’ Source: Ofcom
- 25. For 20 years,‘internet’ meant web browsers, mouse and keyboard. Mobile ended that. Half of all time spent online in the USA is in smartphone apps. Post-Netscape, post-PageRank.
- 26. 26 Interaction models aretotally unsettled Rapid innovation and change continues “I installed an app on my Android smartphone ” “Installed” an “app”? Web apps, APIs, push notifications, messaging, Google Now… “Android”? Chrome, Xiaomi… “Smartphone?” Watches, Glass, wearables, TV, tablets…
- 27. 27 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Phone unit salesGlobal Browsing Delhi FB users SF FB users App store revenue Mobile platform share, Q4 2014 Android iOS Platforms are more complex Ecosystem dynamics depend on where you are and what you’re doing Source: Facebook, Apple, Google, Gartner, Akamai, a16z
- 28. 28 A computer shouldn’t ask anythingthat it should know Sensors profoundly change what a computer can know Every new sensor creates a new business Phones are more sophisticated than PCs Proliferation of sensors creates far more capability and sophistication than PCs
- 29. 29 Mobile’s multiplier effect Increasedsophistication from mobile is as important as the increase in scale x Personal Taken everywhere Frictionless access Sensors, cameras Location Payment Social platform Much easier to use Vastly bigger opportunity= 2-3x more smartphones than PCs by 2020
- 30. 30 0 1 2 3 4 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Facebook revenue by source ($bn) Mobile ads Payments & Other Desktop ads Facebook’s mobile ad explosion Mobile ads are now 68% of revenue and brought in $7.4bn in 2014 Source: Facebook, a16z
- 31. Global SMS: 20bnmessages a day. WhatsApp: 30bn messages a day. (with just 40 engineers) Source: GSMA, WhatsApp
- 32. 32 2000 100 staff 1m users $10mraised Today 10 staff 10m users $1m raised ? 1 engineer 1m users $0 raised Fundamental change in opportunity Mobile leverage plus collapse of development costs
- 33.
- 34. 34 Screens dominate ourlives More than half our time awake is spend on media and communications Source: Ofcom
- 35. 35 0 1 2 3 4 5 2000 2001 20022003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e Global LCD screen sales (bn square feet) Glass is eating the world Close to a square foot of screen sold for every adult on earth Source: Corning
- 36. 36 TVs 24% iOS 13% Google Android 23% Chinese Android 9% WP/RIM 1% PCs& Macs 30% Global install base of video players, 2014 TV sets are in the minority Computing devices used for video now far outnumber actual ‘televisions’ Source: Apple, Google, Nokia, Blackberry, Displaysearch, a16z “By the summer of 2012, the majority of the televisions you see in stores will have Google TV embedded” - Eric Schmidt
- 37. 37 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Boys Girls ‘Media youwould miss most', UK aged 11-15, 2014 Other TV set Games console PC Mobile & tablet What would children miss the most? Mobile Mobile dwarfs legacy media platforms Source: Ofcom
- 38. 38 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Adults 11 to15 Share of communication activity, UK, 2014 Photo messages Messaging apps Social networks Phone calls Email Comms are going pure digital, pure mobile Email is for grandparents Source: Ofcom
- 39. 1999 – 80bnconsumer photos taken on film. 2014 – 800bn photos shared on social. More iPhones & Android phones sold than Japanese cameras ever. More photos taken this year than taken on film ever. Source: Kodak, Companies, CIPA, a16z
- 40. 40 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Japanese camera unitsales (m) Film Digital, DSLR etc Digital, Fixed lens Digital gives and it takes away Digital’s convenience led to a surge in camera sales, but then smartphones took over Source: CIPA, a16z
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- 42. 42 Three phases oftechnology deployment Companies that make technology Companies that buy technology Companies that are built around technology
- 43. 43 Companies that buytechnology Tech has become part of every office Like plants, tech is part of facilities But is the business built around it?
- 44. 44 Building companies aroundnew technology The really important new businesses are native to new technologies Trucks & highways Trucks & highways Web & Smartphones Smartphones McDonald’s Wal-Mart Airbnb Uber / Lyft Food Retail Travel Transport
- 45. 45 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 1995 1996 19971998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Amazon since launch ($bn) Revenue Net income Amazon: a retailer built around tech Amazon is building the Sears Roebuck of the 21st Century – not a tech company Source: Amazon
- 46. 46 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2003 2004 20052006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Amazon North America ecommerce as % US retail* And Amazon is only 1.5% of the way Amazon still only has 1.5% of US retail revenue * Excludes automobiles & parts, gasoline and food service. Source: BLS, Amazon, a16z
- 47. 47 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1989 1991 19931995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Quarterly revenue ($bn) Amazon Wal-Mart Amazon versus Wal-Mart (Why would you stop to take profits?) Source: Bloomberg
- 48. 48 Mobile scale allowsfar more Amazons Most tech is bought and paid for, not used to create new businesses 10 years ago, AirBnB would have sold software to Hilton Uber would have sold software to taxi companies Scale of mobile, software mean the opportunity is vastly bigger More and more companies following Amazon, Uber, AirBnB to disrupt existing industries with tech
- 49. 49 1800 1810 18201830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Frequency of ‘Railways’ in Google Books When tech is fully adopted, it disappears Source: Google
- 50. 50 1800 1810 18201830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Frequency of ‘Steel’ in Google Books Steel Source: Google
- 51. 51 1800 1810 18201830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Frequency of ‘Computerization’ in Google Books Computerization Source: Google
- 52. 52 1800 1810 18201830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Frequency of ‘Software’ in Google Books Software Software is changing the world just as much Source: Google
- 53. Software is eating theworld Tech is outgrowing the tech industry