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Applied Real Estate
Investment Track
2015-2016 FALL BOARD MEETING
SEPTEMBER 25, 2015
Team Introduction
Zi Chong Jonathon Davis Jeffrey Grabowski
Agenda
Fund Objective and Investment Theme
Macroeconomic View
Investment Strategy & Implementation
Property Sector Fundamentals
Company Stock Recommendations
Portfolio Management
Questions & Discussion
Fund Objective
Outperform the MSCI US REIT Index
Investment Theme
Slower Economic Growth,
Continued Volatility
Focus on Value
Preservation
Agenda
Fund Objective and Investment Theme
Macroeconomic View
Investment Strategy & Implementation
Property Sector Fundamentals
Company Stock Recommendations
Portfolio Management
Questions & Discussion
Macroeconomic View - Domestic
Recovered
Housing
Housing Market Index 61
Manufacturing
Expansion
High Capacity Utilization
Job Gains
2-3 Millions
5.1% Unemployment Rate
GDP Growth
2%+
Since 2012
Stable and Improving US Economy
Macroeconomic View - Global
China is Slowing
Recession Risk
Brazil, Canada &
Australia
Very Slow Growth
Deflation Risk
Reduced Demand
for Commodity
Japan and Europe
Macroeconomic View - Implications
Volatile Stock Market Slower GDP & Job Growth Slowing
U.S. Economy
Macroeconomic View – Capital Markets
Source: Commercial Mortgage Alert September 24, 2015
Macroeconomic View – Interest Rates
Market expects 61% chance that rate
hikes in March 2016
Multiple Interest Rate Increases
Source: CME Group and St Louis Fed
Agenda
Fund Objective and Investment Theme
Macroeconomic View
Investment Strategy & Implementation
Property Sector Fundamentals
Company Stock Recommendations
Portfolio Management
Questions & Discussion
Investment Strategy
• Underweight sectors most affected by global uncertainty
• Overweight sectors driven by strong US fundamentals
• Neutral all other sectors
Sector Weighting
• High Quality Real Estate
• Strong Balance Sheet
• Opportunities for Growth
• Intrinsic Value
Stock Selection
Tactical Investment Implementation
Rank Multi-Family Rank Hospitality Rank Industrial Rank Office Rank Healthcare Rank
Shopping
Malls
Rank
Shopping
Centers
3Month 2 0.70 6 0.90 7 0.92 5 0.79 1 0.56 3 0.74 4 0.77
6Month 2 0.75 7 0.94 6 0.93 5 0.82 1 0.62 3 0.77 4 0.80
1Year 2 0.63 7 0.94 6 0.81 5 0.72 1 0.48 3 0.69 4 0.70
3Year 2 0.63 7 1.06 6 0.91 4 0.76 1 0.58 3 0.74 5 0.76
5Year 2 0.85 7 1.36 6 1.23 5 1.00 1 0.82 4 0.99 3 0.98
10Year 2 1.37 7 1.80 6 1.75 4 1.48 1 1.25 5 1.55 3 1.44
Betawith S&P 500
Tactical Investment Implementation
Rank Multi-Family Rank Hospitality Rank Industrial Rank Office Rank Healthcare Rank
Shopping
Malls
Rank
Shopping
Centers
3Month 2 0.95 3 1.02 7 1.16 4 1.04 1 0.91 5 1.04 6 1.06
6Month 2 0.99 3 1.01 7 1.09 5 1.01 1 0.95 4 1.01 6 1.04
1Year 3 1.01 5 1.02 7 1.04 2 0.99 1 0.98 4 1.01 6 1.03
3Year 1 0.96 5 1.04 7 1.08 2 0.98 6 1.05 4 1.00 3 0.99
5Year 2 0.96 6 1.18 7 1.18 4 1.01 1 0.95 5 1.03 3 1.00
10Year 2 0.99 6 1.15 7 1.18 4 1.03 1 0.88 5 1.09 3 1.00
Betawith RMS
Tactical Investment Implementation
Underweight
Hospitality
Neutral
Industrial Office Healthcare Retail
Overweight
Multi-Family
Agenda
Fund Objective and Investment Theme
Macroeconomic View
Investment Strategy & Implementation
Property Sector Fundamentals
Company Stock Recommendations
Portfolio Management
Questions & Discussion
Industrial Sector
Current Environment
 Strong fundamentals
 Growth in E-Ecommerce
 Housing & Auto Industry Strength
Looking Forward
 Plateauing Economic Indicators
 Strong Dollar
 Global slowdown
Weighting Recommendation: Neutral
Office Sector
Current Environment
 Healthy Employment Data
 Limited Supply Growth
 Strong Net Absorption
Looking Forward
 Modest Economic Growth
 S&P 500 Downward Forecast
 Structural concern in office space usage
Weighting Recommendation: Neutral
Retail Sector
Current Environment
 Highest consumer sentiment index recorded
since 2010
 Small business optimism index close to long run
average
 Record occupancy; SS-NOI growth between 3%-
5%
Looking Forward
 Muted supply (12MM SF) with strong
absorption (32 MM SF in 20151H)1
 Stronger pricing power: contractual rent bumps
 E-commerce growth: from 7% current to 12% in
20202
Weighting Recommendation: Neutral Sources: 1) International Council of Shopping Center an CoStar.
2) Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales, 1st Quarter 2015, U.S. Bureau News.
Healthcare Sector
Current Environment
 Strong past NOI growth: 3%-4%1
 Record high occupancy
 RIDEA structure increase risk and return
Looking Forward
 Low beta sector
 Demographics favor healthcare
 Short-term supply concern
 Great susceptibility to rising interest rates
Weighting Recommendation: Neutral
Source: 1) Green Street Healthcare Sector Report 2015 Q2
Multi-Family Sector
Current Environment
 Lowest homeownership rate since 1967
 Population and job growth driven by millennials
 Record high occupancy
Looking Forward
 Millennial demographics continue to strengthen
 Construction to accelerate but in control
 Absorption to remain healthy as demand
continues
to outpace supply
Weighting Recommendation: Overweight
Hospitality Sector
Current Environment
 Business travel biggest driver of demand
 Occupancy levels at record highs
 Enplanements have continued to grow.
 2015 & 2016 REVPar growth revised downward
Looking Forward
 Drop in corporate earnings may affect business
travel
 Strong dollar will hurt foreign leisure travel
 Supply is concerning in Houston, Miami, and
New York
Weighting Recommendation: Underweight
Agenda
Fund Objective and Investment Theme
Macroeconomic View
Investment Strategy & Implementation
Property Sector Fundamentals
Company Stock Recommendations
Portfolio Management
Questions & Discussion
Company Screening Considerations
Real Estate and
Operations
High Quality Real
Estate
Proven Operational
Track Record
Internal & External
Growth
Balance Sheet
Large Institutional
Ownership
Credit Ratings
Valuation
Price/NAV
Price/FFO
Beta
DCT Industrial Trust, Inc. (DCT)
Primary Rationale
Major distribution market
concentration paired with strong
operating track record and
accretive disposition activity
DCT Industrial Trust, Inc. (DCT)
Real Estate:
 Strategic portfolio repositioning into major
distribution markets
 7.0% SS NOI Growth Rate
Balance Sheet
 Low leverage
 Staggered Debt Maturity Schedule
 Investment Credit Rating
Valuation
 Current Discount to NAV vs historical
premium
 Multiple in line with Peers
Regency Centers Corporation (REG)
Primary Rationale
High quality grocery-anchored
centers with high discount to
NAV.
Regency Centers Corporation (REG)
Real Estate:
 70% grocery-anchored centers
 ¾ of grocers have 1st /2nd largest market share
 50% exposure to top 3 job gaining states.
Balance Sheet
 Lower-than-peers leverage; 96% fixed rate
 Investment grade balance sheet
 $794MM of line of credit
Valuation
 -12% to NAV vs historical average +0.5%
 Bigger discount than peer average -9%
Equity Residential (EQR)
Primary Rationale
High quality assets in
core and coastal markets
trading at a high discount
to NAV
Equity Residential (EQR)
Real Estate:
 Over past 10 years, repositioned portfolio of
suburban and urban properties to a focused
portfolio of urban properties in core markets.
Balance Sheet
 Healthy balance sheet with 28.8% Debt-to-
Capitalization
 S&P and Moody’s Investment Credit Rating
Valuation
 Trading at a (14.8%) discount to NAV
Financial Highlights EQR Peer Avg
Price $72.11
Market Capitalization (B) 27.40 15.40
Debt / Market Capitalization 28% 26%
1 Yr Beta (RMZ) 0.76 1.01
Valuation EQR Peer Avg
NAV $84.66
Premium / Discount -14.8% -5.8%
Nominal Cap Rate 4.6% 4.8%
Dividend Yield 3.1% 3.3%
P / FFO (2015E) 20.9x 18.8x
P / AFFO (2015E) 23.8x 21.1x
SS NOI Growth (2015) 4.8% 6.0%
Agenda
Fund Objective and Investment Theme
Macroeconomic View
Investment Strategy & Implementation
Property Sector Fundamentals
Company Stock Recommendations
Portfolio Management
Questions & Discussion
Portfolio Management
Portfolio Management
Academic &
Professional
Guidance
Weekly Macro
Review
Weekly ASAP
Updates
Active Portfolio
Monitoring
Questions & Discussion

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Applied Real Estate Investment Track 2015-2016 FALL BOARD MEETING

  • 1. Applied Real Estate Investment Track 2015-2016 FALL BOARD MEETING SEPTEMBER 25, 2015
  • 2. Team Introduction Zi Chong Jonathon Davis Jeffrey Grabowski
  • 3. Agenda Fund Objective and Investment Theme Macroeconomic View Investment Strategy & Implementation Property Sector Fundamentals Company Stock Recommendations Portfolio Management Questions & Discussion
  • 4. Fund Objective Outperform the MSCI US REIT Index
  • 5. Investment Theme Slower Economic Growth, Continued Volatility Focus on Value Preservation
  • 6. Agenda Fund Objective and Investment Theme Macroeconomic View Investment Strategy & Implementation Property Sector Fundamentals Company Stock Recommendations Portfolio Management Questions & Discussion
  • 7. Macroeconomic View - Domestic Recovered Housing Housing Market Index 61 Manufacturing Expansion High Capacity Utilization Job Gains 2-3 Millions 5.1% Unemployment Rate GDP Growth 2%+ Since 2012 Stable and Improving US Economy
  • 8. Macroeconomic View - Global China is Slowing Recession Risk Brazil, Canada & Australia Very Slow Growth Deflation Risk Reduced Demand for Commodity Japan and Europe
  • 9. Macroeconomic View - Implications Volatile Stock Market Slower GDP & Job Growth Slowing U.S. Economy
  • 10. Macroeconomic View – Capital Markets Source: Commercial Mortgage Alert September 24, 2015
  • 11. Macroeconomic View – Interest Rates Market expects 61% chance that rate hikes in March 2016 Multiple Interest Rate Increases Source: CME Group and St Louis Fed
  • 12. Agenda Fund Objective and Investment Theme Macroeconomic View Investment Strategy & Implementation Property Sector Fundamentals Company Stock Recommendations Portfolio Management Questions & Discussion
  • 13. Investment Strategy • Underweight sectors most affected by global uncertainty • Overweight sectors driven by strong US fundamentals • Neutral all other sectors Sector Weighting • High Quality Real Estate • Strong Balance Sheet • Opportunities for Growth • Intrinsic Value Stock Selection
  • 14. Tactical Investment Implementation Rank Multi-Family Rank Hospitality Rank Industrial Rank Office Rank Healthcare Rank Shopping Malls Rank Shopping Centers 3Month 2 0.70 6 0.90 7 0.92 5 0.79 1 0.56 3 0.74 4 0.77 6Month 2 0.75 7 0.94 6 0.93 5 0.82 1 0.62 3 0.77 4 0.80 1Year 2 0.63 7 0.94 6 0.81 5 0.72 1 0.48 3 0.69 4 0.70 3Year 2 0.63 7 1.06 6 0.91 4 0.76 1 0.58 3 0.74 5 0.76 5Year 2 0.85 7 1.36 6 1.23 5 1.00 1 0.82 4 0.99 3 0.98 10Year 2 1.37 7 1.80 6 1.75 4 1.48 1 1.25 5 1.55 3 1.44 Betawith S&P 500
  • 15. Tactical Investment Implementation Rank Multi-Family Rank Hospitality Rank Industrial Rank Office Rank Healthcare Rank Shopping Malls Rank Shopping Centers 3Month 2 0.95 3 1.02 7 1.16 4 1.04 1 0.91 5 1.04 6 1.06 6Month 2 0.99 3 1.01 7 1.09 5 1.01 1 0.95 4 1.01 6 1.04 1Year 3 1.01 5 1.02 7 1.04 2 0.99 1 0.98 4 1.01 6 1.03 3Year 1 0.96 5 1.04 7 1.08 2 0.98 6 1.05 4 1.00 3 0.99 5Year 2 0.96 6 1.18 7 1.18 4 1.01 1 0.95 5 1.03 3 1.00 10Year 2 0.99 6 1.15 7 1.18 4 1.03 1 0.88 5 1.09 3 1.00 Betawith RMS
  • 16. Tactical Investment Implementation Underweight Hospitality Neutral Industrial Office Healthcare Retail Overweight Multi-Family
  • 17. Agenda Fund Objective and Investment Theme Macroeconomic View Investment Strategy & Implementation Property Sector Fundamentals Company Stock Recommendations Portfolio Management Questions & Discussion
  • 18. Industrial Sector Current Environment  Strong fundamentals  Growth in E-Ecommerce  Housing & Auto Industry Strength Looking Forward  Plateauing Economic Indicators  Strong Dollar  Global slowdown Weighting Recommendation: Neutral
  • 19. Office Sector Current Environment  Healthy Employment Data  Limited Supply Growth  Strong Net Absorption Looking Forward  Modest Economic Growth  S&P 500 Downward Forecast  Structural concern in office space usage Weighting Recommendation: Neutral
  • 20. Retail Sector Current Environment  Highest consumer sentiment index recorded since 2010  Small business optimism index close to long run average  Record occupancy; SS-NOI growth between 3%- 5% Looking Forward  Muted supply (12MM SF) with strong absorption (32 MM SF in 20151H)1  Stronger pricing power: contractual rent bumps  E-commerce growth: from 7% current to 12% in 20202 Weighting Recommendation: Neutral Sources: 1) International Council of Shopping Center an CoStar. 2) Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales, 1st Quarter 2015, U.S. Bureau News.
  • 21. Healthcare Sector Current Environment  Strong past NOI growth: 3%-4%1  Record high occupancy  RIDEA structure increase risk and return Looking Forward  Low beta sector  Demographics favor healthcare  Short-term supply concern  Great susceptibility to rising interest rates Weighting Recommendation: Neutral Source: 1) Green Street Healthcare Sector Report 2015 Q2
  • 22. Multi-Family Sector Current Environment  Lowest homeownership rate since 1967  Population and job growth driven by millennials  Record high occupancy Looking Forward  Millennial demographics continue to strengthen  Construction to accelerate but in control  Absorption to remain healthy as demand continues to outpace supply Weighting Recommendation: Overweight
  • 23. Hospitality Sector Current Environment  Business travel biggest driver of demand  Occupancy levels at record highs  Enplanements have continued to grow.  2015 & 2016 REVPar growth revised downward Looking Forward  Drop in corporate earnings may affect business travel  Strong dollar will hurt foreign leisure travel  Supply is concerning in Houston, Miami, and New York Weighting Recommendation: Underweight
  • 24. Agenda Fund Objective and Investment Theme Macroeconomic View Investment Strategy & Implementation Property Sector Fundamentals Company Stock Recommendations Portfolio Management Questions & Discussion
  • 25. Company Screening Considerations Real Estate and Operations High Quality Real Estate Proven Operational Track Record Internal & External Growth Balance Sheet Large Institutional Ownership Credit Ratings Valuation Price/NAV Price/FFO Beta
  • 26. DCT Industrial Trust, Inc. (DCT) Primary Rationale Major distribution market concentration paired with strong operating track record and accretive disposition activity
  • 27. DCT Industrial Trust, Inc. (DCT) Real Estate:  Strategic portfolio repositioning into major distribution markets  7.0% SS NOI Growth Rate Balance Sheet  Low leverage  Staggered Debt Maturity Schedule  Investment Credit Rating Valuation  Current Discount to NAV vs historical premium  Multiple in line with Peers
  • 28. Regency Centers Corporation (REG) Primary Rationale High quality grocery-anchored centers with high discount to NAV.
  • 29. Regency Centers Corporation (REG) Real Estate:  70% grocery-anchored centers  ¾ of grocers have 1st /2nd largest market share  50% exposure to top 3 job gaining states. Balance Sheet  Lower-than-peers leverage; 96% fixed rate  Investment grade balance sheet  $794MM of line of credit Valuation  -12% to NAV vs historical average +0.5%  Bigger discount than peer average -9%
  • 30. Equity Residential (EQR) Primary Rationale High quality assets in core and coastal markets trading at a high discount to NAV
  • 31. Equity Residential (EQR) Real Estate:  Over past 10 years, repositioned portfolio of suburban and urban properties to a focused portfolio of urban properties in core markets. Balance Sheet  Healthy balance sheet with 28.8% Debt-to- Capitalization  S&P and Moody’s Investment Credit Rating Valuation  Trading at a (14.8%) discount to NAV Financial Highlights EQR Peer Avg Price $72.11 Market Capitalization (B) 27.40 15.40 Debt / Market Capitalization 28% 26% 1 Yr Beta (RMZ) 0.76 1.01 Valuation EQR Peer Avg NAV $84.66 Premium / Discount -14.8% -5.8% Nominal Cap Rate 4.6% 4.8% Dividend Yield 3.1% 3.3% P / FFO (2015E) 20.9x 18.8x P / AFFO (2015E) 23.8x 21.1x SS NOI Growth (2015) 4.8% 6.0%
  • 32. Agenda Fund Objective and Investment Theme Macroeconomic View Investment Strategy & Implementation Property Sector Fundamentals Company Stock Recommendations Portfolio Management Questions & Discussion
  • 34. Portfolio Management Academic & Professional Guidance Weekly Macro Review Weekly ASAP Updates Active Portfolio Monitoring