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Craig Looney’s 6th Annual Winter Outlook I
2013 Season (Nov 1st to January 31st )
Note:
-NAO blocks major storms from going out to sea so that’s what you want for snow.
(Up in Greenland)
+NAO (had all 2011) sends systems away.
Next Update: November 1st
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CPC has issued an El Nino Watch on 10/4/2012.
ENSO conditions remain neutral as of 10/9/2012 .
ENSO-Neutral to weak El Nino expected November to March 2013.
Possible El Nino strengthening is possible over the next couple of months.
NOAA 90-day outlook focuses on a wet Southeast as of 9/30/2012
As of 10/11/12, conditions are very ripe for a dramatically different winter than last
year. (Only in the East. Very warm in the West.)
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That typically means a snowy winter on the East Coast. We still
need the NAO and Arctic air but the moisture and lack of a
dominate pump of warm air means this is the winter you want
if you are a snow lover. The Southwest and Rockies should
have a better winter than last with average to above average
rain and snowfall. 83% likely hood as of 10/11/12.
The other option is we will remain neutral, in which the winter
could be either cold or warm.
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Figure provided by the International Research Institute
(IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 18 Sept 2012).
• Nearly all of the models predict El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere fall, with
most models predicting El Niño to continue into December-February 2012-13.
Weakening to Neutral end of 2013. (2013-2014 could be warm)
EL NINO
LA NINA
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Equal comparisons to Snowy Richmond 2009 to this
year JULY-SEPTEMBER
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3%
Strong El Nino
Mild Winter
(+NAO)
Winter 2012-2013 Prediction
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Nov 1st Nov 8th
Nov 22nd
Nov 15th
Average Temperature Forecast (Not real averages based on past)
Precipitation Type Forecast (if precipitating)
63 65 60 57 68 66 55 60 60 53 49
Rain Rain Rain Rain Rain Rain Rain Rain
Forecast: Above Average temperatures for most if not all of
November. Cold fronts can bring 1-2 day highs in the 40’s before
a warm up. Average precipitation amounts. 0% winter
precipitation.
Total Snowfall: 0.0 inches
Conditions not favorable for major winter storm.
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Dec 1st Dec 8th
Dec 22nd
Dec 15th
47 45 35 44 50 40 38 36 45 50 45
Weak El Nino forms in the Pacific bringing cool and wet weather
to the Southeast up to Eastern NC. Richmond on typical
rain/snow line. Potential winter storm Dec 4th-6th and 15th-18th.
Expected total snowfall: 5.7 inches
*Major winter coastal storm*: 16% occuring (6-10 inches on top)
(With +NAO these numbers MUCH lower)
Mix? Snow? Rain Rain Snow? Mix? Rain Rain
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Jan 1st Jan 8th
Jan 22nd
Jan 15th
Weak El Nino builds and will bring cold and rainy/snowy weather
to the Southeast. Richmond snowier depending on El Nino
strength. As of now perfect weakness likely. Too much gain or
neutral limits winter weather. Likely 2-3 snow bursts.
Expected total snowfall: 14 inches
*Major winter coastal storm* :
34% occuring (12-15 inches on top)
(With +NAO these numbers MUCH lower)
41 40 33 39 47 40 45 36 43 47 43
Mix? Snow? Snow? Mix? Mix? Snow? Rain Mix?
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Next Update: November 1st
(February update and total winter snowfall through March 1)
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Picture sources
http://www.newsnet5.com/dpp/weather/weather_news/2012-2013-winter-outlook-Above-
average-temperatures near-normal-snowfall
http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task
=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=1122&Itemid=179
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http://geoea.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/0912-
combine-sst.png
