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Keynote: Rivers of Northern Australia - Douglas

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Willamette River Initiative
Willamette River Initiative
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Back to future: Can lessons from restoring the Willamette help to protect the rivers of northern Australia? Michael Douglas Director, TRaCK Research Hub Charles Darwin University
Outline • The region • The issues • TRaCK • The future
Australia’s wet-dry tropics • 25% of Australia (463,000 square miles) • 1.4% of Australia’s population (300,000 people) • 30% of population are Indigenous people
Hot, wet season & hot, dry season 110 240 100 220 90 200 Temperature (F) or Humidity (%) 180 80 160 70 Rainfall (inches) 140 60 M ax. T em p. 120 50 M in. T em p. 100 40 9 am Hum idity Rainfall (T otal 650 inch) 80 30 60 20 40 10 20 0 0 Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
• 55 catchments • 50% of Australia’s river flow • <0.02% of water diverted
Outline • The region • The issues • TRaCK • The future
TRaCK - Research to support river and estuary management in northern Australia
Heffernan touts the “Ord as the food bowl for the region” 2007 2008
Research to support sustainable management • Increasing interest in developing northern Australia • Need to avoid the mistakes made in the past • Lack of basic knowledge of the full implications of future scenarios Fundamental need for research Historic opportunity
TRaCK’s Aim To provide the science and knowledge that governments, communities and industries need for the sustainable management of Australia’s tropical rivers and estuaries
TRaCK • 80 Researchers • 5 years • 30 Projects 1. Why do people value tropical rivers? 2. How do they differ across the region? 3. How do tropical rivers work? 4. What are the opportunities for Indigenous people? 5. How can we make good decisions about managing tropical rivers?
Barramundi catch and annual flow 3 year moving averages with 4 year lag (R2=0.81) Robbins et al (2006) Marine and Freshwater Research
Correlations of flow with fisheries production in tropical Australian estuaries Barramundi & Banana prawns N 200 0 200 400 Kilometers +ve Darwin +ve Ú Ê +ve +ve +ve Ú Ê Cairns Broome Ú Ê Ú Ê Townsville Rockhampton N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N NÚ N Ê N N N N Ian Halliday et al 2010
Connected river systems support fisheries Where does the fish biomass come from? Jardine et al 2011 20% 45% River Estuary 35% Floodplain
Western science and Indigenous knowledge
Relative risk score Bla 10 15 20 25 30 Bu ck b tle r rs eam gru B Or arra nter dR m ive und r i Sle mul Gia ep let nt y co gu d Higher risk Bla dgeo We ck n ste Bony mas rn t rai brea Ba nb m rre owfi Ex d g sh qu run i L te Ma ste ra ong r cle inb tom ay ow ' Sp s gla fish an s gle sfish dp To erc oth h les Tarp o B s ca n Fly Snu lack tfish -sp b-n ca ec os tfis k d h No ed ha garfi rth s we rdyh h st ea Mo d uth glasf alm ish Bla Go ck- ld igh ba Hy en g ty Fish species nd rtl's ob ed t y Mi rai anda dg nbo n Pu ley w rpl 's g fish e-s run po Arch ter tte B d erfis Fa erne gudg h lse e -s y's c on Ka Prm pined atfis the i h rin tive a catfi e R rc sh ive her r g fish u dry season water extraction Sw dge am on Blu p e Sh Salm e ca el ov t el- on c fish no atf Em sed ish pi ca Relative risks of freshwater fish species to Fre re gu tfish s d Re hwa geo risk nd ter n De ahl' s lica s c ole te Lower atf blu ish e Pe -eye nn yfis h
Aboriginal people rely on a wide range of river plants and animals Jackson et al 2011
Relative risk score Bla 10 15 20 25 30 Bu ck b tle r rs eam gru B Or arra nter dR m ive und r i Sle mul Gia ep let nt y co gu d Higher risk Bla dgeo We ck n ste Bony mas rn t rai brea Ba nb m rre owfi Ex d g sh qu run i L te Ma ste ra ong r cle inb tom ay ow ' Sp s gla fish an s gle sfish dp To erc oth h les Tarp o B s ca n Fly Snu lack tfish -sp b-n ca ec os tfis k d h No ed ha garfi rth s we rdyh h st ea Mo d uth glasf alm ish Bla Go ck- ld igh ba Hy en g ty Fish species extraction – Daly River nd rtl's ob ed t y Mi rai anda dg nbo n Pu ley w rpl 's g fish e-s run po Arch ter tte B d erfis Fa erne gudg h lse e -s y's c on Ka Prm pined atfis the i h rin tive a catfi e R rc sh ive her r g fish u Sw dge am on Blu p e Sh Salm e ca el ov t el- on c fish no atf Em sed ish pi ca Fre re gu tfish s d Re hwa geo nd ter n De ahl' s lica s c ole te atf blu ish e Pe -eye nn yfis h Lower risk From Chan et al 2011 Some are at high risk from dry season water
Future development scenarios (30 years) Management Strategy Evaluation, Daly River Indicator (c.f. to 2006) 5% Agriculture Indigenous  6% income Stoeckl et al (in press) Biological Conservation
Future development scenarios (30 years) Management Strategy Evaluation, Daly River Indicator (c.f. to 2006) 5% Agriculture Indigenous  6% income Non-Indigenous  12% income Stoeckl et al (in press) Biological Conservation
Future development scenarios (30 years) Management Strategy Evaluation, Daly River Indicator (c.f. to 2006) 5% Agriculture Indigenous  6% income Non-Indigenous  12% income Discharge  65% Stoeckl et al (in press) Biological Conservation
Future development scenarios (30 years) Management Strategy Evaluation, Daly River Indicator (c.f. to 2006) 5% Agriculture Indigenous  6% income Non-Indigenous  12% income Discharge  65% Optimal fish  89% habitat/wild harvest Stoeckl et al (in press) Biological Conservation
Future development scenarios (30 years) Management Strategy Evaluation, Daly River Indicator (c.f. to 2006) 5% Agriculture Indigenous  6% income Non-Indigenous  12% income Discharge  65% Optimal fish  89% habitat/wild harvest Stoeckl et al (in press) Biological Conservation
Future development scenarios (30 years) Management Strategy Evaluation, Daly River Indicator (c.f. to 2006) 5% Agriculture 5% Government Indigenous  6%  45% income Non-Indigenous  12%  70% income Discharge  65%  25% Optimal fish  89%  47% habitat/wild harvest Stoeckl et al (in press) Biological Conservation
Summary • TRaCK’s research is leading to a more informed debate - Society clearly values tropical rivers for many reasons - Communities are looking for balance - Clear trade-offs between different values • State governments are using this research to make decisions about water allocation
Tony Abbott'sopposition party calls for a Federal plan for northern foodbowl network of new dams if elected by: Sid Maher From: The Australian September 17, 2011 12:00AM
Outline • The region • The issues • TRaCK • The future
Science process engaging stakeholders Science Stakeholders process
Social processes may engage science Planning, policy, management Science ? process Stakeholders
Partnership approach to achieve research outcomes & societal outcome
A new approach: Actionable research or Transdisciplinary research Stakeholders Science process Stakeholders Science & Scientists Stakeholders ach tre Ou process Research Action
Engagement Providing Consulting Joint Joint Supporting users informatio with users decision action initiatives n s s PARTNERSHIP
Engagement Providing Consulting Joint Joint Supporting users informatio with users decision action initiatives n s s PARTNERSHIP Personal traits Hubris, authority, Humility, empathy, listening talking, credibility with , credibility with peers & peers users
Engagement Providing Consulting Joint Joint Supporting users informatio with users decision action initiatives n s s PARTNERSHIP Personal traits Hubris, authority, talkin Humility, empathy, listening g, credibility with peers , credibility with peers & users Indicators of completion Publication Public action
Scale Indiv., popl’n, Social ecological community Ecosystems Watersheds systems
Scale Indiv., popl’n, Social ecological community Ecosystems Watersheds systems Disciplinarity Single- Multi- Inter- Trans- Researchers, research Ecologist, Ecologist Ecologist, users, facilitators, Integrat hydrologist, hydrologist ors, communicators planner, economist
Scale Indiv., popl’n, Social ecological community Ecosystems Watersheds systems Disciplinarity Single- Multi- Inter- Trans- Researchers, research Ecologist, hydrolog Ecologist Ecologist, hydrolo users, facilitators, Integrat ist, planner, econo gist ors, communicators mist Resources Years Decades $$ $$$$
Finding and retaining the People right people • The right personal traits - Humility, empathy, listening, doing - Credibility with peers and research users • Collaboration with the right range of skills - Research disciplines, facilitators, communicators • Continuous engagement with research users
Creating the right project Project • High quality research • Appropriate scale (time and space) for research users • Adequate resources (time and money) • Flexibility to respond to users needs
A clear pathway for application Pathway • Need for evidence-based decisions • Trust relationships with key research users • Co-identified problems and outputs • Opportunity for application - e.g. policy, plan, decision
Aligning people, pathway and project People Timely Action Pathway Project
Aligning the right People people, right project and right pathway Requires: Pathway Project • Planning, leadership, timing • More from all partners • Researchers • Research users • Research funders
Aligning the right People people, right project and right pathway Requires: Pathway Project • Planning, leadership, timing • More from all partners Results: • Defensible decisions & policies • Stakeholder support • Timely action • Publication Dynamic • Difficult to maintain alignment
TRaCK2- Future direction 1. Interdisciplinary projects organised around solving problems 2. Greater involvement of research users in co-identification of research problems and products 3. Social-ecological systems framework 4. Inspiring examples - Willamette
Modeling future scenarios Pantus et al (2011) Stoeckl et. al. (2011) Financial Impact on Indigenous Households Economic Financial Impact on Non-Indigenous Development Households Pantus and Impact on the Environment Barton (2011) (in this case, water extraction) Impact on Stream-Flows Cook et al (2010), Stewart-Koster et al (2011), Pusey et al (2011), Warfe et al (2011), Chan et al (2012), Linke et al (in press), Petit et al (in press) Flow and habitat requirements of fish and impacts of altered stream flows Jackson et al (2011) The Value of Wild Resources collected by Indigenous Householders Estimate of the financial value of the loss of wild resources caused by decreased stream flow Net impact on the finances of Indigenous and non- Jackson et al (2011), Stoeckl et al (2012) Indigenous households (allowing for loss of wild resources) Socio-cultural values Impact of economic development on Indigenous and non-Indigenous well-being
Conventional research activity Arlletaz 2010
Research to action Arlletaz 2010
Having the right people and People project (but NOT the right pathway) Project Cause: • Problems identified only by researchers • Change in policy or government Positive consequences: • Good discovery science • Knowledge available when a pathway appears Negative consequences: • Process ends with “management implications” • Delayed or no action resulting from good Ref: Duarte, Return to Neverland paper
Having the right pathway and project (but NOT the right Pathway Project people) Cause: • Can’t get the right people – (project never starts) • The right people move on (project ends) or • The project proceeds with the wrong people Positive consequences: • Can prepare for action, actively recruit the right people Negative consequences: • Unmet stakeholder expectations can damage reputation of organizations • Project damages relationships
Having the right people and People pathway (but NOT the right project) Pathway Causes: • Resource limitations (project never starts or starts but falls short of expectations) • Misalignment of scales Positive consequences: • Capability building, communication links open, planning can occur, positioned for funding opportunities Negative consequences: • Value of science not realized • Decisions made without poor or no evidence
People value these rivers for many reasons Most important management Responses issue (%) Preserving for biodiversity & natural 40 habitat Preserving rivers for the people who 20 live there and visitors Producing food for Australia 30 Developing northern Australia 6 Providing food for the world 4 Zander and Straton (2010) Ecological Economics Zander et al. (2010) Journal of Environmental Management

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Keynote: Rivers of Northern Australia - Douglas

  • 1. Back to future: Can lessons from restoring the Willamette help to protect the rivers of northern Australia? Michael Douglas Director, TRaCK Research Hub Charles Darwin University
  • 2. Outline • The region • The issues • TRaCK • The future
  • 3. Australia’s wet-dry tropics • 25% of Australia (463,000 square miles) • 1.4% of Australia’s population (300,000 people) • 30% of population are Indigenous people
  • 4. Hot, wet season & hot, dry season 110 240 100 220 90 200 Temperature (F) or Humidity (%) 180 80 160 70 Rainfall (inches) 140 60 M ax. T em p. 120 50 M in. T em p. 100 40 9 am Hum idity Rainfall (T otal 650 inch) 80 30 60 20 40 10 20 0 0 Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11. • 55 catchments • 50% of Australia’s river flow • <0.02% of water diverted
  • 12. Outline • The region • The issues • TRaCK • The future
  • 13. TRaCK - Research to support river and estuary management in northern Australia
  • 14. Heffernan touts the “Ord as the food bowl for the region” 2007 2008
  • 15. Research to support sustainable management • Increasing interest in developing northern Australia • Need to avoid the mistakes made in the past • Lack of basic knowledge of the full implications of future scenarios Fundamental need for research Historic opportunity
  • 16.
  • 17. TRaCK’s Aim To provide the science and knowledge that governments, communities and industries need for the sustainable management of Australia’s tropical rivers and estuaries
  • 18. TRaCK • 80 Researchers • 5 years • 30 Projects 1. Why do people value tropical rivers? 2. How do they differ across the region? 3. How do tropical rivers work? 4. What are the opportunities for Indigenous people? 5. How can we make good decisions about managing tropical rivers?
  • 19. Barramundi catch and annual flow 3 year moving averages with 4 year lag (R2=0.81) Robbins et al (2006) Marine and Freshwater Research
  • 20. Correlations of flow with fisheries production in tropical Australian estuaries Barramundi & Banana prawns N 200 0 200 400 Kilometers +ve Darwin +ve Ú Ê +ve +ve +ve Ú Ê Cairns Broome Ú Ê Ú Ê Townsville Rockhampton N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N NÚ N Ê N N N N Ian Halliday et al 2010
  • 21. Connected river systems support fisheries Where does the fish biomass come from? Jardine et al 2011 20% 45% River Estuary 35% Floodplain
  • 22. Western science and Indigenous knowledge
  • 23.
  • 24. Relative risk score Bla 10 15 20 25 30 Bu ck b tle r rs eam gru B Or arra nter dR m ive und r i Sle mul Gia ep let nt y co gu d Higher risk Bla dgeo We ck n ste Bony mas rn t rai brea Ba nb m rre owfi Ex d g sh qu run i L te Ma ste ra ong r cle inb tom ay ow ' Sp s gla fish an s gle sfish dp To erc oth h les Tarp o B s ca n Fly Snu lack tfish -sp b-n ca ec os tfis k d h No ed ha garfi rth s we rdyh h st ea Mo d uth glasf alm ish Bla Go ck- ld igh ba Hy en g ty Fish species nd rtl's ob ed t y Mi rai anda dg nbo n Pu ley w rpl 's g fish e-s run po Arch ter tte B d erfis Fa erne gudg h lse e -s y's c on Ka Prm pined atfis the i h rin tive a catfi e R rc sh ive her r g fish u dry season water extraction Sw dge am on Blu p e Sh Salm e ca el ov t el- on c fish no atf Em sed ish pi ca Relative risks of freshwater fish species to Fre re gu tfish s d Re hwa geo risk nd ter n De ahl' s lica s c ole te Lower atf blu ish e Pe -eye nn yfis h
  • 25. Aboriginal people rely on a wide range of river plants and animals Jackson et al 2011
  • 26. Relative risk score Bla 10 15 20 25 30 Bu ck b tle r rs eam gru B Or arra nter dR m ive und r i Sle mul Gia ep let nt y co gu d Higher risk Bla dgeo We ck n ste Bony mas rn t rai brea Ba nb m rre owfi Ex d g sh qu run i L te Ma ste ra ong r cle inb tom ay ow ' Sp s gla fish an s gle sfish dp To erc oth h les Tarp o B s ca n Fly Snu lack tfish -sp b-n ca ec os tfis k d h No ed ha garfi rth s we rdyh h st ea Mo d uth glasf alm ish Bla Go ck- ld igh ba Hy en g ty Fish species extraction – Daly River nd rtl's ob ed t y Mi rai anda dg nbo n Pu ley w rpl 's g fish e-s run po Arch ter tte B d erfis Fa erne gudg h lse e -s y's c on Ka Prm pined atfis the i h rin tive a catfi e R rc sh ive her r g fish u Sw dge am on Blu p e Sh Salm e ca el ov t el- on c fish no atf Em sed ish pi ca Fre re gu tfish s d Re hwa geo nd ter n De ahl' s lica s c ole te atf blu ish e Pe -eye nn yfis h Lower risk From Chan et al 2011 Some are at high risk from dry season water
  • 27. Future development scenarios (30 years) Management Strategy Evaluation, Daly River Indicator (c.f. to 2006) 5% Agriculture Indigenous  6% income Stoeckl et al (in press) Biological Conservation
  • 28. Future development scenarios (30 years) Management Strategy Evaluation, Daly River Indicator (c.f. to 2006) 5% Agriculture Indigenous  6% income Non-Indigenous  12% income Stoeckl et al (in press) Biological Conservation
  • 29. Future development scenarios (30 years) Management Strategy Evaluation, Daly River Indicator (c.f. to 2006) 5% Agriculture Indigenous  6% income Non-Indigenous  12% income Discharge  65% Stoeckl et al (in press) Biological Conservation
  • 30. Future development scenarios (30 years) Management Strategy Evaluation, Daly River Indicator (c.f. to 2006) 5% Agriculture Indigenous  6% income Non-Indigenous  12% income Discharge  65% Optimal fish  89% habitat/wild harvest Stoeckl et al (in press) Biological Conservation
  • 31. Future development scenarios (30 years) Management Strategy Evaluation, Daly River Indicator (c.f. to 2006) 5% Agriculture Indigenous  6% income Non-Indigenous  12% income Discharge  65% Optimal fish  89% habitat/wild harvest Stoeckl et al (in press) Biological Conservation
  • 32. Future development scenarios (30 years) Management Strategy Evaluation, Daly River Indicator (c.f. to 2006) 5% Agriculture 5% Government Indigenous  6%  45% income Non-Indigenous  12%  70% income Discharge  65%  25% Optimal fish  89%  47% habitat/wild harvest Stoeckl et al (in press) Biological Conservation
  • 33. Summary • TRaCK’s research is leading to a more informed debate - Society clearly values tropical rivers for many reasons - Communities are looking for balance - Clear trade-offs between different values • State governments are using this research to make decisions about water allocation
  • 34. Tony Abbott'sopposition party calls for a Federal plan for northern foodbowl network of new dams if elected by: Sid Maher From: The Australian September 17, 2011 12:00AM
  • 35. Outline • The region • The issues • TRaCK • The future
  • 36.
  • 37. Science process engaging stakeholders Science Stakeholders process
  • 38. Social processes may engage science Planning, policy, management Science ? process Stakeholders
  • 39. Partnership approach to achieve research outcomes & societal outcome
  • 40. A new approach: Actionable research or Transdisciplinary research Stakeholders Science process Stakeholders Science & Scientists Stakeholders ach tre Ou process Research Action
  • 41. Engagement Providing Consulting Joint Joint Supporting users informatio with users decision action initiatives n s s PARTNERSHIP
  • 42. Engagement Providing Consulting Joint Joint Supporting users informatio with users decision action initiatives n s s PARTNERSHIP Personal traits Hubris, authority, Humility, empathy, listening talking, credibility with , credibility with peers & peers users
  • 43. Engagement Providing Consulting Joint Joint Supporting users informatio with users decision action initiatives n s s PARTNERSHIP Personal traits Hubris, authority, talkin Humility, empathy, listening g, credibility with peers , credibility with peers & users Indicators of completion Publication Public action
  • 44. Scale Indiv., popl’n, Social ecological community Ecosystems Watersheds systems
  • 45. Scale Indiv., popl’n, Social ecological community Ecosystems Watersheds systems Disciplinarity Single- Multi- Inter- Trans- Researchers, research Ecologist, Ecologist Ecologist, users, facilitators, Integrat hydrologist, hydrologist ors, communicators planner, economist
  • 46. Scale Indiv., popl’n, Social ecological community Ecosystems Watersheds systems Disciplinarity Single- Multi- Inter- Trans- Researchers, research Ecologist, hydrolog Ecologist Ecologist, hydrolo users, facilitators, Integrat ist, planner, econo gist ors, communicators mist Resources Years Decades $$ $$$$
  • 47. Finding and retaining the People right people • The right personal traits - Humility, empathy, listening, doing - Credibility with peers and research users • Collaboration with the right range of skills - Research disciplines, facilitators, communicators • Continuous engagement with research users
  • 48. Creating the right project Project • High quality research • Appropriate scale (time and space) for research users • Adequate resources (time and money) • Flexibility to respond to users needs
  • 49. A clear pathway for application Pathway • Need for evidence-based decisions • Trust relationships with key research users • Co-identified problems and outputs • Opportunity for application - e.g. policy, plan, decision
  • 50. Aligning people, pathway and project People Timely Action Pathway Project
  • 51. Aligning the right People people, right project and right pathway Requires: Pathway Project • Planning, leadership, timing • More from all partners • Researchers • Research users • Research funders
  • 52. Aligning the right People people, right project and right pathway Requires: Pathway Project • Planning, leadership, timing • More from all partners Results: • Defensible decisions & policies • Stakeholder support • Timely action • Publication Dynamic • Difficult to maintain alignment
  • 53. TRaCK2- Future direction 1. Interdisciplinary projects organised around solving problems 2. Greater involvement of research users in co-identification of research problems and products 3. Social-ecological systems framework 4. Inspiring examples - Willamette
  • 54.
  • 55.
  • 56. Modeling future scenarios Pantus et al (2011) Stoeckl et. al. (2011) Financial Impact on Indigenous Households Economic Financial Impact on Non-Indigenous Development Households Pantus and Impact on the Environment Barton (2011) (in this case, water extraction) Impact on Stream-Flows Cook et al (2010), Stewart-Koster et al (2011), Pusey et al (2011), Warfe et al (2011), Chan et al (2012), Linke et al (in press), Petit et al (in press) Flow and habitat requirements of fish and impacts of altered stream flows Jackson et al (2011) The Value of Wild Resources collected by Indigenous Householders Estimate of the financial value of the loss of wild resources caused by decreased stream flow Net impact on the finances of Indigenous and non- Jackson et al (2011), Stoeckl et al (2012) Indigenous households (allowing for loss of wild resources) Socio-cultural values Impact of economic development on Indigenous and non-Indigenous well-being
  • 59. Having the right people and People project (but NOT the right pathway) Project Cause: • Problems identified only by researchers • Change in policy or government Positive consequences: • Good discovery science • Knowledge available when a pathway appears Negative consequences: • Process ends with “management implications” • Delayed or no action resulting from good Ref: Duarte, Return to Neverland paper
  • 60. Having the right pathway and project (but NOT the right Pathway Project people) Cause: • Can’t get the right people – (project never starts) • The right people move on (project ends) or • The project proceeds with the wrong people Positive consequences: • Can prepare for action, actively recruit the right people Negative consequences: • Unmet stakeholder expectations can damage reputation of organizations • Project damages relationships
  • 61. Having the right people and People pathway (but NOT the right project) Pathway Causes: • Resource limitations (project never starts or starts but falls short of expectations) • Misalignment of scales Positive consequences: • Capability building, communication links open, planning can occur, positioned for funding opportunities Negative consequences: • Value of science not realized • Decisions made without poor or no evidence
  • 62. People value these rivers for many reasons Most important management Responses issue (%) Preserving for biodiversity & natural 40 habitat Preserving rivers for the people who 20 live there and visitors Producing food for Australia 30 Developing northern Australia 6 Providing food for the world 4 Zander and Straton (2010) Ecological Economics Zander et al. (2010) Journal of Environmental Management

Editor's Notes

  1. Many of the fish species included in this risk assessment were harvested by indigenous people over the period of our surveys. Out of the top ten species that make the largest contribution to hh income, three species were found to be at high risk from dry season water extraction: Barramundi, Black Bream and Mullet were within the top ten species in the Daly (according to the replacement method of valuation). Black Bream (first bar) was at high risk (30) as was Barramundi (28) (third bar) and Mullet (27) (fourth bar)Those species that are highlighted as being at high-medium risk of late dry season water extraction make up 21% of the total replacement value in the Daly River.Consumption of the top ten species equates to 5% of HH income in the Daly i.e. $67 per fortnight.