Telstra\'s Climate Change Opportunities Report


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Telstra\'s Climate Change Opportunities Report

  1. 1. Towards a A Climate Risk Report High-Bandwidth, Low-Carbon Future Telecommunications-based Opportunities to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions Climate Risk Pty Ltd provide specialist professional services to business and government on risk, opportunity and adaptation to climate change. Climate Risk Towards a High-Bandwidth, Low-Carbon Future Climate Risk
  2. 2. Climate Risk Pty Limited (Australia) Level , 36 Lauderdale Avenue Fairlight, NSW 094 Tel: + 6 8003 454 Brisbane: + 6 7 30 453 Climate Risk Europe Limited Manchester: + 44 6 73 474 This report was prepared by: Dr Karl Mallon BSc PhD Gareth Johnston GC. Sust CSAP Donovan Burton B.Env.Plan (Hons) Jeremy Cavanagh B.Eng Design and layout by Bethan Burton BSc Towards a High-Bandwidth, Low-Carbon Future: Telecommunications-based Opportunities to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Version 1.0 ISBN: 978-0-9804343-0-9 Disclaimer Climate Risk provides professional services in relation to climate change risks and opportunities. Our technical and professional staff endeavour to work to international best practice standards using experienced scientists, sector specialists and associated experts. This document is intended to stimulate ideas and generate discussion amongst business government and society about the role telecommunications can play in reducing carbon emissions. While the information contained is drawn from reputable sources in the public domain, Climate Risk cannot take responsibility for errors or inaccuracies within original source material. This report does not consider individual investment requirements or the particular needs of individuals, corporations or others and as such the report should not be relied upon as the basis for specific commercial decisions. Telstra and Climate Risk support a constructive dialogue about the ideas and concepts contained herein. Towards a High-Bandwidth, Low-Carbon Future Climate Risk
  3. 3. Climate Risk Team Dr Karl Mallon Dr Karl Mallon is director of Science and Systems at Climate Risk Pty Ltd. He is a first class honours graduate in physics from the United Kingdom and holds a doctorate in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Melbourne. He has been the recipient of research scholarships from the British Council and European Centre for Nuclear Research (CERN). Karl has worked in the field of climate change and energy since 99 and is the editor and co-author of ‘Renewable Energy Policy and Politics: A Handbook for Decision Making’ published by Earthscan (London). He has worked as a technology and energy policy analyst for various international government and non-government organisations. Karl was a member of the CSIRO’s Energy Futures Forum which reported in 006, as well as a director of the Australian Wind Energy Association between 003 and 005. Gareth Johnston Gareth Johnston is director of Corporate and Government Risk at Climate Risk Pty Ltd. Post graduate qualified in sustainability, with a background in land management and infrastructure development, Gareth focuses on emergent opportunities for Climate Risk clients. As founding CEO of a CSIRO energy technology company and executive director of an Australian management consulting company, Gareth has consulted to the largest Australian, European and Japanese utilities. His development work has given him exposure to local, state and federal governments across Europe and Australasia. Donovan Burton Donovan Burton is a Senior Associate with Climate Risk. Donovan heads Climate Risk’s Planning and Local Government section where he works closely with local government and industry to help develop climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. He has a degree in Environmental Planning and achieved a first class honours for his thesis on local climate change mitigation. Donovan is also a PhD candidate at Griffith University and has recently been announced as a Wentworth Scholar. Donovan’s recent research is on local scale adaptation where he is developing tools to quantify the impacts of climate change on human settlements. Jeremy Cavanagh Jeremy Cavanagh has a degree in electrical engineering from University Technology Sydney and postgraduate qualifications in sustainability. With over 0 years international telecommunications experience he has provided technical operations management for terrestrial and satellite service operators including AUSSAT and France Telecom. Jeremy is a recognised analyst of media technology innovation and has been published in DTV(US), TVB Europe and BEN (AUST). Jeremy provides technical planning and execution expertise which is used by international broadcasters including CNN, CBS, ITN, ITV and Channel 7. His work in telecommunications and broadcasting has been recognised internationally and he has shared in three US Emmy awards for technical excellence. i Towards a High-Bandwidth, Low-Carbon Future Climate Risk
  4. 4. Peer Reviewers Greg Bourne Greg Bourne is chief executive of WWF Australia and a member of the National Advisory Committee for Environment Business Australia. Greg was formerly Regional President of BP Australasia, part of a career in the oil and gas industry spanning over 5 years. Greg’s work in oil research and exploration included work in the United Kingdom, the USA, Latin America, Canada, Ireland, Brazil, China, Australia, Papua New Guinea and Middle East. During the middle of his career, Greg was also seconded to the Prime Minister’s Policy Unit at 0 Downing Street in 988 as Special Adviser on Energy and Transport. Greg took up his current position as CEO WWF- Australia in October 004. Greg is also Chair of the Sustainable Energy Authority of Victoria and a Member of the CSIRO Sector Advisory Council to the Natural Resource Management and Environment Sector. He was awarded the Centenary Medal for services to the environment. Dr Hugh Saddler Dr Saddler has a degree in science from Adelaide University and a PhD from Cambridge University. He is the author of a book on Australian energy policy, ‘Energy in Australia’ and over 50 scientific papers, monographs and articles on energy technology and environmental policy, and is recognised as one of Australia’s leading experts in this field. He is currently a member of the Experts Group on Emissions Trading, appointed by the Australian Greenhouse Office, of the ABS Environmental Statistics Advisory Group, and of the ACT Environment Advisory Committee. In 998 he was appointed an Adjunct Professor at Murdoch University. He is a Fellow of the Australian Institute of Energy and a member of the International Association for Energy Economics. Between 99 and 995 he was a member of the Board of the ACT Electricity and Water Authority. In 995 he was a member of the Expert Selection Panel for the 995 Special Round of the Cooperative Research Centres Program (renewable energy technologies). Acknowledgements Climate Risk acknowledges the support of the following: Telstra staff especially Cassandra Scott and Virginia Harrison; Heritage Pacific staff Natalie Philp, Bianca Duncan and Stephen Harrison; Catholic Education Parramatta: Loddon Mallee Health Alliance. We would also like to acknowledge the expert advice from Peter Best and Corin Millais and the support from Ruth Tedder and Nicole Hercus. ii Towards a High-Bandwidth, Low-Carbon Future Climate Risk
  5. 5. Foreword The 007 Lowy Institute Poll found that tackling climate change is as important to Australians as improving standards in education - and more so than improving the delivery of health care, ensuring economic growth and fighting international terrorism. This Report is a first attempt at a nationwide quantification of the carbon savings and financial benefits resulting from using telecommunications networks to conserve energy and increase clean energy use at home, in the workplace and in ways we connect people, enterprises and communities. The analysis presented in this report finds that the telecommunications sector is uniquely placed to provide important services that can yield nationally significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Indeed a key finding is that many of the telecommunication solutions for living and working in a future carbon-constrained world can actually lead to cost savings for business and the consumer. There is scant information in the public domain that quantifies the opportunities presented by telecommunications to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This report does. This report is not the last word on telecommunications and carbon emissions, but one of the first. We welcome a robust public dialogue around the ideas presented in the report – including critiques by national and international specialists who may provide more detailed insights and more refined ideas. Climate Risk, the authors of the report, and Telstra are committed to raising the level of public discourse and to capture and share learning that can result. This dialogue will, we hope, lead to a more comprehensive understanding of how we can work together to achieve the benefits of a high bandwidth, low carbon society. Time is of the essence as we find innovative solutions to reducing carbon emissions. We are delighted to offer this study into the marketplace of ideas and we invite you to share your reactions, insights and ideas with us and with each other through forums, the media and private discussions. Philip M. Burgess, Ph.D Group Managing Director Public Policy Communications iii Towards a High-Bandwidth, Low-Carbon Future Climate Risk
  6. 6. Contents Executive Summary vi -xiii Part 1 1 Climate Change - The Challenge 1 The Global Consensus 1 What is the ‘greenhouse effect’? 1 The Complexity of Climate Change 2 What Does ‘Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change’ Actually Mean? 5 Understanding Emission Cuts 6 National Emissions and Per Capita Emissions 7 Adaptation and Mitigation 7 A Carbon Price 8 Emissions Trading 9 Part 2 10 The Emissions Signature of Broadband 10 Understanding Telecommunications Networks 10 The Balance of Network Impacts 16 Part 3 18 Identifying Carbon-Opportunities for Telecommunication networks 18 Step 1. Identifying Relevant Sectors 18 Step 2. Reviewing Current and Emergent Network Technology 19 Step 3. Major Carbon-Opportunities for telecommunication providers: Overlaying emission sources with network technologies 20 Viability and Implementation 23 Part 4 24 Major Carbon-Opportunities for Telecommunication Networks 24 Carbon-Opportunity 1: Remote Appliance Power Management 24 Carbon-Opportunity 2: Presence-Based Power 27 Carbon-Opportunity 3: De-centralised Business District 29 Carbon-Opportunity 4: Personalised Public Transport 33 Carbon-Opportunity 5: Real-time Freight Management 36 Carbon-Opportunity 6: Increased Renewable Energy 38 Carbon-Opportunity 7: ‘On-Live’ High Definition Video Conferencing 45 Part 5 48 Quantifying the Opportunities 48 Remote Appliance Power Management 48 Presence-Based Power 49 De-centralised Business District 50 Personalised Public Transport 51 Real-time Freight Management 52 iv Towards a High-Bandwidth, Low-Carbon Future Climate Risk
  7. 7. Increased Renewable Energy 53 ‘On-Live’ High Definition Video Conferencing 54 Total Impacts of Abatement Opportunities 55 Value of Avoided Carbon 56 Total Value of the Identified Opportunities 57 Attribution 57 Regulation 58 Timing 58 Part 6 60 Conclusions 60 Beyond Carbon Neutral 60 The Climate Challenge 60 Telecommunication’s Significance in Climate Change Mitigation 61 Part 7 64 References 64 Glossary 68 Appendix 1 73 Industry Example: Broadband and Urban Development - Genesis, Coomera Appendix 2 78 Industry Example: Next generation networks, Carbon and Education - Catholic Education Parramatta Appendix 3 81 Industry Example: Telstra - Change Through Leadership Appendix 4 84 Industry Example: The Health Sector, Climate Change and Telecommunication Networks Appendix 5: 89 Summary of Sectors and Applications Considered with Action v Towards a High-Bandwidth, Low-Carbon Future Climate Risk
  8. 8. Executive Summary The scale and scope of the telecommunication Key Findings sector’s operations unlock the ability to . This report provides an analysis 5. The estimated energy and travel aggregate multiple of the opportunities for Australian cost savings are approximately distributed initiatives society to achieve nationally $6.6 billion per year, and value of to achieve nationally significant greenhouse gas the carbon credits created may significant emissions abatement using telecommunication be between $70 million and $. savings. networks. billion subject to the future price of carbon. . The report identifies that the scale and scope of telecommunication 6. Some of these carbon- network services and users provide opportunities can be realised CARBOn- a unique opportunity to harness immediately; others are OPPORTuniTiES economies of scale to achieve contingent on the roll-out of Throughout this document meaningful emission reductions. a national fibre optic network carbon-opportunities is to residential and commercial used as a short hand for 3. Many of the carbon-opportunities consumers. ‘carbon dioxide emission abatement opportunities’ identified lead to energy and other which include an activity cost savings for commercial and 7. In combination with other that provides real and residential customers, and in some measures being implemented by measurable reductions cases will enable the on-selling Government, a deployment of in, or avoidance of, of newly created carbon creditsi the carbon-opportunities in the greenhouse gas and electricity management period 008 to 04 would have emissions. They do not include the use of offset commodities. the additional effect of stabilising mechanism to reduce national emissions in the period emissions. 4. The estimated abatement up to 04 in keeping with the opportunity calculated herein is findings of the IPCC and the Stern almost 5% (4.9) of Australia’s total Review, as shown in Figure i. national emissions, making the use of telecommunication networks one of the most significant opportunities The opportunities to reduce the national carbon outlined in this footprint. report result in total greenhouse gas reductions equivalent to approximately 4.9% of Australia’s total national emissions. i When pollution levels are capped, in some schemes, it may be possible to trade greenhouse gas pollution rights referred to as ‘carbon credits’. Currently NSW has a greenhouse gas emissions trading scheme, the Federal Government has announced plans to introduce a national scheme in 0 and there are also voluntary abatement markets. vi Towards a High-Bandwidth, Low-Carbon Future Climate Risk
  9. 9. Figure i: Combined effect of telecommunication networks Carbon- Figure i. If the seven Opportunities carbon-opportunities identified in the report were deployed, over Business as usual the period 008 - 04, 850 Best estimate with effect of the effect would be a anticipated government stabilisation of national measures to reduce emissions emissions in the period 750 Kyoto target 0 - 04. Graph is a modification based on CR-Telecommunication 650 AGO 007a. Networks Scenario Emissions 550 MtCo2 -e 1990 levels 450 QuAnTiFyinG 350 EMiSSiOnS: MtCO2-e Mega-tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent 250 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 (MtCO-e) is the internationally recognised measure used to compare the emissions from the Year various greenhouse gases. This measure factors in differences in global warming potential and converts them to a carbon- dioxide equivalent. For example, the global warming potential for a Table i: Summary of emissions abatement from Carbon-Opportunities tonne of methane over 00 years is times that of a tonne of carbon dioxide. Carbon-Opportunity (in order of size) MtCO2-e saving Percentage of national emissions increased Renewable Energy 10.1 1.81 Personalised Public Transport 3.9 0.70 Table i. Summary of De-centralised Business District 3.1 0.55 emissions abatement from carbon- Presence-Based Power 3.0 0.53 opportunities Real-time Freight Management 2.9 0.52 ‘On-Live’ High Definition Video 2.4 0.43 Conferencing Remote Appliance Power Management 1.8 0.33 Total 27.3 4.88 vii Towards a High-Bandwidth, Low-Carbon Future Climate Risk
  10. 10. Beyond Carbon Neutral The Climate Challenge THE KyOTO PROTOCOL AnD AuSTRALiA’S This report goes significantly beyond The latest statement from the TARGET ‘holding the line’ goals of corporate Intergovernmental Panel on Climate The Kyoto Protocol is carbon neutrality and carbon. Instead Change (IPCC 007) indicates the an agreement made it sets out a suite of opportunities next ten years are critical in meeting under the United Nations that would allow telecommunications the challenges posed by climate Framework Convention on Climate Change providers to play a leadership role in change. For the first time, scientists (UNFCCC). The main decarbonising the Australian economy and governments are now agreed that objective of the protocol and equipping the nation to prosper in global emissions must be stabilised is the “stabilization a carbon constrained future. All of the by 05 if climate change is to be of greenhouse gas strategies and opportunities are based effectively addressed. Similarly concentrations in the on avoiding the release of fossil carbon the global economic Stern Review atmosphere at a level that would prevent into the atmosphere; they are not based concluded that “to stabilise at dangerous anthropogenic on off-setting emissions. 450ppmii CO-e, without overshooting, interference with the global emissions would need to peak climate system.” The first Seven options are proposed to build on in the next 0 years“ (Stern 006, p. commitment period of the existing and next-generation networks. 93). Reducing greenhouse emissions Kyoto Protocol requires The realisation of opportunities requires major commitments from industrial nations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions outlined in this report would result in both the public and private sectors as by at least 5 per cent telecommunications providers assisting well as the government. below 990 levels by 0. Australian businesses and households Australia received a 08% achieving total greenhouse gas In 005 Australia’s net annual target above 990 levels. reductions equivalent to approximately emissions totalled 559 mega-tonnes 4.9% of Australia’s total national of CO equivalent (MtCO-e) from all GREEnHOuSE GASES emissions. Some of the opportunities activities, which equates to .4% of (GHG) identified in the consumer space can the global total. In the short term, Greenhouse gases be achieved using existing network it appears that Australia will stay are those gaseous services and others are contingent on close to its Kyoto Protocol target of constituents of the the roll-out of fibre to the node (FTTN) no more than an 8% increase above atmosphere, both natural and anthropogenic (man broadband infrastructure. Overall 990 emission levels (AGO 007b). made), that contribute the initiatives identified in this report However, the underlying trend is that to increasing the global present the opportunity for one of the Australian emissions will increase at mean temperature of the single largest reductions in Australia’s about .3% per year. earth. Greenhouse gases carbon footprint by an Australian including water vapour corporation. The use of fossil-fuels in stationary- (HO), carbon dioxide (CO), nitrous oxide (NO), energyiii and transport applications methane (CH4), and ozone Companies seeking to maximise is the nation’s major source of (O3) are the primary their carbon emission reduction emissions. The trend is not declining greenhouse gases in the could leverage the existing and next- or stabilising, but continuing to grow Earth’s atmosphere. There generation networks already built by significantly. If deep cuts in emissions are a number of entirely Telstra. are to be achieved, emissions from the human-made greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, energy sector are Australia’s greatest such as the halocarbons greenhouse challenge. and other chlorine- and bromine-containing ii Associated with a 50% chance of exceeding oC warming above pre-industrial levels. substances. iii Stationary energy includes emissions from electricity generation, the use of fuels in manufacturing, construction and commercial sectors, and residential heating. It excludes transport fuels. viii Towards a High-Bandwidth, Low-Carbon Future Climate Risk
  11. 11. Telecommunication’s Significance Secondly, devices and appliances which The underlying trend in Climate Change Mitigation are on, but not being unused, may is that Australian also waste large amounts of electricity emissions are Telecommunication operators are a (estimated herein as 5%), we refer to forecast to increase major conduit for new technology and this as ‘orphaned’ energy. We have at about 1.3% per infrastructure. Australia has the only identified two relevant commercial year. national wireless broadband network in opportunities: the world. Carbon-Opportunity: Remote The scale and scope of the Appliance Power Management telecommunication sector’s operations unlock the ability to aggregate multiple Broadband can provide both the nATiOnAL EMiSSiOnS distributed initiatives to achieve monitoring and control of electrical AnD PER CAPiTA EMiSSiOnS nationally significant emissions networks down to the electric Greenhouse gas savings. The anticipated greenhouse switch box or even plug socket and emissions vary emission constraints coincide with the in addition facilitate analysis and considerably, especially government’s plans for next-generation management elsewhere on the between developed networks, which provides synergies for network. Standby switching can be countries and developing new emission reduction opportunities. centralised to allow electricity to be countries, both at a halted to devices on standby, such as national level and per person. Australia has the This report identifies seven carbon- a phone that has finished charging, highest emissions per opportunities appropriate for Australian a TV that has not been used for an capita of any developed businesses and households, which hour, or a hot water system which is country (OECD) with the have the potential for viable carbon on, even though no one is in the house. equivalent emissions abatement using existing and next- While this is not appropriate for all of 6 tonnes per person generation networks. These carbon- devices, it is applicable to many. carbon dioxide per year. China is one of the worlds opportunities have relevance for biggest greenhouse energy consumption in buildings, road Annual Saving: The estimated gas polluters, but this transport, renewable energy production emissions saving of Remote is largely due the high and aviation. Appliance Power Managementiv is .8 population. On a per MtCO-e, or 0.33% of total national capita basis a Chinese Buildings emissions. The financial value of the person is responsible for about .5 tonnes per year. avoided electricity spending is $70 Today electricity consumption in homes million and the value of the carbon and the workplace accounts for one fifth credits would be in the range of $8 of total national emissions (ABS 007, million to $9 million. AGO 007b); in both locations there are two significant sources of energy Carbon-Opportunity: Presence- With Presence-Based wastage. Firstly, standby power, in Based Power Power the supply which numerous appliances that appear of energy follows to be ‘off’ are still consuming energy, It is very common for any energy the person, not the typically this accounts for over % consuming devices to be left on even appliance. of electricity use in an average home. though the user may not be present. iv Assumes broadband-based Remote Appliance Power Management solutions are used to reduce standby emissions by 50% in /3 of Australian homes and commercial buildings. ix Towards a High-Bandwidth, Low-Carbon Future Climate Risk
  12. 12. However, the supply of energy can be of national emissions. Overall, freight THE VALuE OF CARBOn made dependent on the presence of vehicles are empty for 8% of the Greenhouse gas a person. For example, most office kilometres travelled (ABS 005). emissions trading will be meeting rooms remain air-conditioned operational in Australia while no one is using them and For all of these emissions we have by 0. This will create computers stay on when the person identified three commercially-viable a cost for the right to emit greenhouse gas pollution. is at lunch. Significant reductions in opportunities: Reciprocally it will create energy consumption can be achieved a value for greenhouse if devices are deactivated when people Carbon-Opportunity: De- gas abatement. The walk away, and turned back on when the centralised Business District value of greenhouse person returns. This ‘Presence-Based gas abatement will Power’ can use a person’s mobile phone Broadband-enabled homes, suburbs depend on the cuts in emissions specified by or company identification tag to register and regional centres can either the government and will their presence meaning the supply of remove or significantly reduce the be set by the market. In energy is linked to the presence of the emissions generated by people this report we use a range person, not just the appliance. travelling to and from work. At one of possible carbon prices end of the spectrum, people would be from $0 to $50 per tonne Annual Saving: The estimated working from home one day a week or of carbon dioxide based on analysis by the CSIRO and emissions saving of Presence-Based more; at the other end, people would ABARE. Power v is 3.0 MtCO-e, or 0.53% of total be working in suburban or regional national emissions. The financial value centres where minor commuting is of the avoided electricity spending is involved. In the latter case, people $70 million and the value of the carbon would continue to enjoy employment credits would be in the range $9 million in a national or international company to $50 million. with no career disadvantage. A hybrid is the telework business centre, open to staff from many different businesses Transport and placed in locations close to where Today road transport produces nearly 70 people live but able to offer all of the MtCO–e of emissions per year, around amenities of a large office. 4% of total national emissionsvi. Three quarters of Australians drive to work; Annual Saving: The estimated of these only 4% share a car (ABS emissions saving of De-centralised 005). Though significant attention Business Districtsvii, from reduced has focused on making traffic flows travel emissions only, is 3. MtCO-e more efficient, this often only increases or 0.55% of total national emissions. traffic volumes. Meaningful emissions The financial value of the avoided fuel abatement requires the provision of spending is $. billion and the value of more compelling alternatives to car use. the carbon credits would be in the range $30 million to $50 million. Major emissions also result from the movement of freight totalling about 5% v Assumes network enabled Presence-Based Power solutions are used to reduce ‘orphaned’ energy emissions by 50% in /3 of Australian homes and commercial buildings. vi Much of this is caused by the sheer size of the nation. Other continentalised nations, such as the US and Canada, also have comparatively high transport-linked emissions. This may also affect vehicle type and choice. vii Assumes that De-Centralised Workplaces are used by 0% of employees who have telework suitable jobs, and their commuting emissions are reduced by at least 50%. x Towards a High-Bandwidth, Low-Carbon Future Climate Risk
  13. 13. Carbon-Opportunity: Personalised or 0.5% of total national emissions. Public Transport The financial value of the avoided fuel Wireless-broadband can facilitate public spending is $. billion and the value of transport on demand. Personalised the carbon credits would be in the range Public Transport allows the user to $9 million to $50 million. order public transport provided by an integrated network of multi-occupant Renewable Energy taxis, minibuses, buses and trains, which starts at the front door. The Today Australia’s energy supply is personal efficiency of Personalised dominated by fossil fuels. However REnEWABLE EnERGy Public Transport can exceed that of deep cuts in Australian emissions COnSTRAinTS using the private car, with faster speeds will require a transition to low and Europe, US states and door-to-door, greater flexibility and zero emission sources of power developing countries lower costs. Further, Personalised supply. Despite being plentiful, low- like India and China have Public Transport can greatly increase cost renewable energy sources like established very high targets for renewable the catchment of other public transport wind power are hampered by the energy. The Australian options, such as bus and rail, resulting in variability of the supply; this has in government has recently significant opportunities for greenhouse part prompted restriction of new wind announced a target for gas abatement. farm development in South Australia about 30,000 gigawatt and has been used in the advocacy hours of electricity Annual Saving: The estimated of higher-cost nuclear generation. per year to come from renewables. Some of the emissions saving through Personalised The report identifies a means by most successful renewable Public Transport viii is 3.9 MtCO-e which next- generation networks can energy sources, like wind per annum, or 0.7% of total national dismantle such barriers to renewable power, produce constantly emissions. The financial value of the energy uptake. varying amounts of avoided fuel spending is $.6 billion and energy. Properly the value of the carbon credits would be managing this variation Carbon-Opportunity: increased can limit the amount of in the range $39 million to $00 million. Renewable Energy renewable energy which can be installed in certain Carbon-Opportunity: Real-time Australia’s extensive broadband locations or increase the Freight Management networks allow a link to be made value of such energy. between renewable energy supplies Wireless-broadband allows freight and and active load management of freight vehicles to be monitored in real heating, cooling and other appliances in time. Consolidating this information buildings and homes across Australia. allows more freight to be assigned to This can be used to create ‘virtual’ unladen, or underladen, vehicles. Real- energy storage to effectively neutralise time Freight Management creates an aspects of short-term variability, turning The report identifies a integrated clearing house for multiple such renewables into ‘stable and means by which next suppliers of freight services. predictable generation’. This in turn generation networks would enable renewables to contribute can dismantle barriers Annual Saving: The estimated an increased component of the to renewable energy emissions saving of Real-time Freight electricity supply. uptake. Managementix is .9 MtCO-e per annum, viii Assumes that wireless broadband-facilitated Personalised Public Transport is able to capture 0% of car-based commuters and assumes that the relative emission intensity of public transport is 90% lower than personal car travel in the urban environment. ix Assumes that Real-time Freight Management effectively avoids 5% of unladen truck kilometres. xi Towards a High-Bandwidth, Low-Carbon Future Climate Risk
  14. 14. Annual Saving: The emissions to 6.5MtCO-e per annum when the abatement from using Increased increased warming effect of aviation Renewable Energy x is at least 0. emissions at altitude or ‘up-lift’ is MtCO-e or .8% of total national included). Excluding up-lift, the avoided emissions, though this could be emissions are equivalent to 0.43% of considerably higher. The financial total national emissions. value of the avoided fuel spending is $86 million and the value of the carbon The financial value of the avoided Because aviation credits would be in the range $00 spending on air travel is $. billion and emissions occur million to $300 million. the value of the carbon credits are in the at altitude the range $4 million to $0 million. warming effect is approximately 2.7 Aviation times higher. Real World and Industry Examples Aviation emissions are amongst the fastest growing in the energy sector. For each of the carbon-opportunities Domestic aviation alone produces identified above, the report provides 5. million tonnes of CO per year and international examples of current international aviation using fuels applications of the required technology procured in Australia give rise to or systems. approximately twice these emissions. Yet because aviation emissions occur To illustrate the opportunities and Each of the industry at altitude the warming effect is as barriers in achieving the carbon cuts examples demonstrate much as .7 times higher. Based on from the use of Telstra’s existing that there have already international studies about 50% of short and next-generation networks, four been carbon emission haul air travel may be for business industry perspectives have been savings through the use of ICT networks. In many (Mason 000). presented: cases this has been a side effect of reducing costs or Carbon-Opportunity: ‘On-Live’ High . Housing: The Genesis residential improving productivity. Definition Video Conferencing housing development in South These examples show East Queensland considerable scope Long-distance, short-duration travel to apply the carbon- opportunities identified can be effectively replaced with ‘in- . Education: Catholic Education in this report to create person’ high-definition, high fidelity, Parramatta which administers 7 much deeper emission online conferencing that is significantly schools abatement in these sectors more efficient in cost, time, energy and and also to unlock costs emissions. 3. Business: Telstra which has savings in energy, fuel and approximately 36,000 full-time infrastructure. Annual Saving: The emissions saving equivalent employees in Australia of ‘On-Live’ High Definition Video Conferencingxi services in avoided 4. Health: Information domestic and international air travel Communications Technology (ICT) is .4 MtCO-e per annum through networks in regional and rural health direct fuel use reduction (equivalent services x Assumes that one-third of homes and commercial buildings are broadband enabled and that they have agreed to have their discretionary (non-time-sensitive) loads managed by Telstra. Assumes that on average, 5% of the total loads across residential and commercial buildings are discretionary at any one time. xi Assumes /3 of business air travel can be replaced by ‘On-Live’ meetings using high speed, high definition video links. xii Towards a High-Bandwidth, Low-Carbon Future Climate Risk
  15. 15. Figure ii: Breakdown of abatement contribution from seven Carbon- Figure ii. Annual Opportunities avoided emissions from each of the identified ‘On-Live’ High Definition carbon-opportunities Video Conferencing (MtCO-e). 2.4 MtCO2-e Remote Appliance Power Management 1.8 MtCO2-e Increased Renewable Energy 10.1 MtCO2-e Presence-Based Power 3.0 MtCO2-e The IPCC have concluded that global emissions must not continue to increase past 2015 if the global mean temperature De-centralised Business District increase is to be 3.1 MtCO2-e contained between 2.0 and 2.4oC above pre-industrial levels. Real-time Freight Personalised Public Management Transport 2.9 MtCO2-e 3.9 MtCO2-e Figure iii: Aggregated value for each of the Carbon-Opportunites Figure iii. Each of the carbon-opportunites 2.5 creates value from Carbon@ $20 tCO2-e avoided fuel use or Saving/Value increased energy value, 2.0 as well as revenue from carbon credits created and other ancillary Billions dollars 1.5 services. $A per year 1.0 0.5 To stabilise at 450ppm CO2- 0.0 e, without overshooting, global on enc ion Bu De- por ic en ht is ed er le w d en e s bl g em nc Po ase t em ig En ab t gy r it t t in lis ic er an u Pe nfe fin ag Fre ag lia Tr P tr w emissions would ss ra -B ed an pp ne e ne nt ce an e D Co D is M im si ce Re M A en o h al need to peak in er te de ig -t es d al w o Vi e’ H se Pr Po Rem Re rs ea the next 10 years v cr Li In n- ‘O [before 2016] (Stern 2006, p. 193). xiii Towards a High-Bandwidth, Low-Carbon Future Climate Risk
  16. 16. Part 1 Climate Change - The Challenge binding targets that may lead toward a convergence in per capita emissions. In this chapter we explore the basic For example, Australia’s per person rationale for a low carbon society. We emissions are approximately 0 times present an overview of climate change that of the average Chinese citizen and science and mitigation strategies. the highest in the developed world. Nevertheless, the societal pressure Global warming could The Global Consensus for unilateral actions in many shrink the global In this report we assume that Australia, countries means that measures to economy by 20%, along with most other countries, is reduce emissions are gathering but taking action starting down a path toward a carbon pace on almost every continent, and now would cost just constrained future. Australia is no different. There is 1% of global gross now bi-partisan political support for domestic product This starting assumption is founded greenhouse gas emissions trading, on the science behind climate change, energy efficiency standards and the - Stern 2006 the rapid evolution of public opinion expansion of renewable energy. All around the world and the actions of these present opportunities for the and commitments occurring in the telecommunications sector as we shall political domain. There is now a global explore in this report. consensus that climate change is a challenge that will have to be addressed What is the ‘greenhouse effect’? The scientific convention forthwith. is for global warming The atmosphere is semi-transparent levels to be expressed This consensus extends to the business to solar energy, allowing some relative to pre-industrial community which is increasingly sunlight to reach and warm the levels, nominally set recognising the risks posed by climate Earth’s surface, absorbing the rest as 850. Temperature change and seeking the opportunities as infrared radiation, and emitting it increases are different created by a carbon constrained society. back to Earth or out into space. This across the globe, lowest at the equator and radiation budget is adjusted as the highest at the poles, Any solution to climate change will concentration of greenhouse gases consequently the require international agreement, change in the atmosphere. scientific convention is which has not yet been achieved. In to refer to global average any international agreement Australia This natural ‘greenhouse effect’ keeps temperature increases. will likely be a target taker, rather than the average surface temperature on Unless otherwise stated these conventions are a target setter. Unlike the USA, the Earth at a comfortable 4°C. To get a adhered to in this report. EU, China, India or Brazil, as one of sense of its importance, our nearest the world’s smaller emitters Australia neighbour, the Moon has an average is unlikely to play a central role in the temperature 3°C lower than Earth. architecture and targets established Although the Moon is about the same in future international agreements. distance from the Sun as Earth, it does However, as one of the world’s not have an atmosphere, and no natural highest per capita emitters, Australia ‘greenhouse effect’ to keep it warm. is highly vulnerable to international Towards a High-Bandwidth, Low-Carbon Future Climate Risk
  17. 17. The composition of our atmosphere is warming or ‘enhanced greenhouse crucial for trapping heat to the levels effect’ we now have to address. In which Earth’s ecosystems and human essence the CO that was taken out of civilisations are now adapted. The the atmosphere by plants over hundreds atmospheric composition is 78% of millions of years is now being nitrogen, % oxygen, 0.93% argon as released back into the atmosphere in a well as some other trace gases. One matter of decades. of these trace gases is carbon dioxide, comprising 0.04%. The Complexity of Climate Change Almost all (99%) of air is made up of The United Nations sums up climate simple double molecules – oxygen change science as follows: (O) and nitrogen (N) – which neither In essence, the CO2 emit nor absorb infrared radiation. “The average temperature of the Earth that was taken out of Molecules with more than two atoms of has been increasing more than natural the atmosphere by different elements - like water vapour climatic cycles would explain. This plants over hundreds of (HO), carbon dioxide (CO), or methane episode of “global warming” is due millions of years is now (CH4) – can trap heat by emitting more to human activity. It began with the being released back infrared radiation back to Earth (Figure industrial revolution, two centuries into the atmosphere in a ). These are known as the greenhouse ago, and accelerated over the last 50 matter of decades. gases. years. Fossil fuel burning is mostly responsible, because it releases While carbon is a trace element in the gases (particularly carbon dioxide) air, vast amounts are cycled between that trap infrared radiation. This the Earth and the atmosphere by “greenhouse effect” creates a whole geological and biological processes, system disturbance, that we call climate and transferred by plant growth into change”. (UNEP 005) the oceans, soils, and forests. Millions of years in favourable geological The climate change process and risks conditions have turned decaying plant are part of a complex interaction with matter into the carbon-rich fossil fuels human activities and the physical we know as oil, coal and gas. dynamics that define the global climate itself. The complexity of these Burning fossil fuels releases carbon interactions is explained in Figure . dioxide back into the atmosphere. Here the carbon dioxide acts as a particularly Over the past century, average global effective heat radiator because of its temperatures have increased by molecular structure. The amounts in approximately 0.74°C (Figure 3) and the atmosphere are so small they are scientific evidence suggests this will measured in parts per million (ppm), continue (IPCC WGI 007). but a slight change in CO concentration makes a large difference to the heat If, as predicted by current IPCC balance. The increased CO adds to the projection models, there is a doubling natural greenhouse effect of the Earth of atmospheric carbon dioxide, the – and causes the human induced global average global temperature is expected Towards a High-Bandwidth, Low-Carbon Future Climate Risk
  18. 18. Figure 1: An overview of the mechanism and scale of the greenhouse effect Figure . The diagram illustrates the process Some solar radiation is Radiation escapes the of warming which is reflected by the atmosphere atmosphere into driven by incoming and the Earth’s surface space solar radiation which is trapped by the atmospheric greenhouse gases. Solar radiation passes through GREENHOUSE GASES the atmosphere Greenhouse gases trap and reflect infrared radiation back to Earth, causing the Some solar energy is Some of the energy ‘greenhouse effect’ absorbed by the is given out as Earth’s surface infrared radiation to rise between 2°C – 4.5°C by 2100, by between 0.4°C to °C by 030 and with extremely serious implications between °C to 6°C by 070 (Preston for the global environment, society Jones 006) (Figure 4). and economy (IPCC 007a; Stern 006; Houghton 004). According to the Australian Greenhouse Office (AGO), climate change will place Climate Change in Australia considerable strain on Australia’s coastal communities including sea The past century has seen Australia level rise and increased storm surges, experience an average warming of changes to marine and coastal 0.7°C and a significant reduction of biodiversity and changes to fisheries coastal precipitation that is reducing (Voice et al. 006). the water supplies of our urban settlements and agricultural regions Relevant impacts for Australia, based (Preston Jones 006). This warming on a range of research include: trend is set to continue with predictions that relative to 990 levels, average • Reduced urban water supplies or Australian temperatures could increase increased costs (CSiRO 2006). 3 Towards a High-Bandwidth, Low-Carbon Future Climate Risk
  19. 19. Figure 2: The complexity of interactions that influence climate change and Figure . The climate its impacts change processes and risks are part of a complex interaction with human activities and the physical dynamics that define the global climate itself (UNEP/GRID-Arendal 006). Soucrce: UNEP/GRID Arendal 006 4 Towards a High-Bandwidth, Low-Carbon Future Climate Risk
  20. 20. Figure 3: The changing global average temperatures since 1850 Figure 3. There is a discernable increase in global temperatures since 900 as the black line with multi-year 0.6 smoothing shows (Brohan et al. 006). 0.4 Temperature 0.2 anomaly (oC) 0.0 - 0.2 - 0.4 - 0.6 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year • Rural and agricultural community • Destabilisation and regional conflict economic dislocation (nelson 2006). in the Pacific including mobilisation of environmental refugees • increase in extreme weather events (Edwards 1999). (CSiRO 2006). What Does ‘Avoiding Dangerous • Sea level rise and storm surge Climate Change’ Actually Mean? impacts on coastal settlements (Church 2006). The latest IPCC report suggests that atmospheric CO concentration alone • A southerly movement of mosquito- (i.e. not including other gases) has borne diseases including Ross River increased from pre-industrial levels Fever (Lyth 2006). of 80 parts per million (ppm) to 380 ppm in 005, which “exceeds by far the • Disruption of food security (Preston natural range over the last 650,000 years 2006). (80 to 300 ppm) as determined from ice cores.” (IPCC WGI SPM 007). • Loss of biodiversity including extinction of endemic species The term ‘dangerous’ climate change (Williams 2005). was introduced in the 99 United Nations Convention on Climate • Reduced ecosystem services Change (UNFCCC), from which the including water quality and Kyoto Protocol was born. It calls for availability; and decreased natural stabilisation of greenhouse gases to: pollination of crops (Houghton 2004; Pittock 2005; Flannery 2005). “prevent dangerous anthropogenic 5 Towards a High-Bandwidth, Low-Carbon Future Climate Risk
  21. 21. Figure 4: Forecast average temperature increases in Australia Figure 4. The changing mean temperatures around Australia based on modelling by the CSIRO. 2030 2070 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Temperature Temperature increase (oC) increase (oC) interference with the climate system.… the UNFCCC to prevent dangerous Such a level should be achieved within a anthropogenic interference with time frame sufficient: the climate system, overall global temperature increase should not • to allow ecosystems to adapt exceed ºC above pre-industrial levels” naturally to climate change; (European Council 004). • to ensure that food production is not Understanding Emission Cuts threatened, and; There is a general The recent IPCC statement on emissions agreement that • to enable economic development to abatement potential concludes that dangerous changes proceed in a sustainable manner”. temperatures could be stabilised below will occur with .4 oC provided that emissions stop warming in the (UNFCCC 99) increasing by 05 and are then reduced vicinity of 2oC above by between 60-95% by 050 (IPCC pre-industrial The UNFCCC and IPCC refer to, but WGIII 007). This is the first time that levels. do not define, ‘dangerous climate scientists and governments, through change’. There is a general agreement the IPCC, have nominated a deadline that dangerous changes will occur with beyond which emissions cannot warming in the vicinity of oC above pre- continue to grow if certain levels of industrial levels. climate change are to be averted. The European Union has formally Greenhouse gas emissions accumulate resolved that: in the global atmosphere and will therefore have to be managed by “to meet the ultimate objective of international agreement. However, Converted from the range 50-85% relative to levels in the year 000, and assuming that global emissions have increase by approximately 0% between 000 and 007 6 Towards a High-Bandwidth, Low-Carbon Future Climate Risk