Insight demo slides

1. Cli-Migration.com!
Where to live in a changing climate.
Thomas C. Moran
Insight Data Science

2. Moving is a big decision.
In NYC alone!
• 50,000 people migrate from New York City each year
• Assume 20% choose where to go (not forced for job, etc.)
• About 50% of these are homeowners, and assume they’ll also buy in their new
location
• Typical NYC home is worth $600,000
(5,000 home buying decisions) * ($600,000) !
~ $3B/yr in relocation decisions for NYC alone

3. People typically move to places with familiar climate.
cooler warmer
wetterdrier
Migration records show a
tendency to choose
destinations with similar
climate as origin.

4. Annual temperature increase of +3 to +5 F by mid-century
Where can you go to keep what you like about your city, including climate?
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
T increase (F)

5. Cli-migration.com
1. Learn what sorts of cities
and climates you like
2. Recommend comparable
cities in future climate
Content-based recommender
Similarity comparison: euclidean.
If you like Boston now… Portland, ME might be a
good long-term fit.

6. Climate migration: movement to most similar cities in the future climate.
Changing just climate
features, which cities
are most comparable
to those we like today? !
!
1. Northward to cooler
temperatures.!
2. Coastward to
tempered climate
change near the sea.

7. !
Content-based
recommender
Climate and sea !
level predictions
Climate !
records
Pre-processing
Geospatial analysis
City
features
Migration
User input and
feedback
Backend Front-end

8. Re:
UC Berkeley
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Bon Savants
e to the i pi

9. Migration modeling
Example: migration from San Francisco
R2 = 0.85
Objective: match historical migration
patterns for user’s home city as a function
of city features (Zillow) and climate.!
!
1. Select features!
• reduce dimensionality via PCA
2. Select model!
• linear regression found to capture
migration patterns, easily interpreted
• R2 = 0.74 ± 0.15, p-value < 0.05
3. Learn from user
• “dislikes” penalize migration scores
• re-run regression, re-rank cities
Observed annual migration [log(movers)]
Predictedannualmigration[log(movers)]

14. A city recommender for the new climate.
New York
San Francisco
Los Angeles
Boston
Seattle
San Francisco
Content-based city
recommender
Similar cities
in future
climate
Climate
Predictions
Cities you like today