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The Village Economy!!
!
!
!
Terrence Rohan!
@tmrohan!
!
!
!
Uncommon times:!
!
Post-war culture & economics!
are ending.!!
+!!
3rd industrial revolution !
is beginning. !
!
!
!
!
!
Post-war culture and economics !
are ending.!
!
!
!
http://www.theatlanticcities.com/jobs-and-economy/2012/06/why-cities-are-growing-faster-suburbs/2420/!
http://www.mckinsey...
Transport!
Car culture is dying. !
!
!
For the first time in 50 years, we’ve
seen a steady 2.5% decline in miles
driven / y...
Retail!
How we shop is radically
changing. !
!
!
Offline, malls are dying at 10% a
year; and urban experiential!
retail is ...
Money!
Monetary systems are
being re-written.!
!
!
Like Naspter to music, digital
currencies will upend!
international sys...
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jeannemeister/2012/08/14/job-hopping-is-the-new-normal-for-millennials-three-ways-
to-prevent-...
Ownership!
Concept of ownership is
being re-defined.!
!
!
Driven by Gen Y sensibilities, the
sharing economy already
genera...
Services!
“Sacred” public institutions
are being challenged.!
!
!
•  Education!
•  Public Transport!
•  Urban Development!...
Companies!
Economic power is
shifting towards start-
ups, makers & SMBs.!
!
!
Technology and startups
represent largest jo...
Goods!
Consumer preferences
are radically changing. !
!
!
Big box brands are losing favor to
the trends of personalization...
Entertainment!
Media has completely
changed.!
!
!
Media production & consumption
has been turned on its head: !
!
Music, N...
!
!
!
Post-war life is ending.!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
Urban Villages are rising.!!
Modern cities with the communal values, practices &
preferences of villages !
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
Village Values!
Urban
Economy!
Denser,
community
living !
Walking,
Biking, Public
Transport !
Urban
shopping
experiences !
Wired !
citizens and
businesse...
!
!
!
!
Why? !
!
!
!
!
!
1. Economic advantage !!
!
Whenever a city doubles in size, every measure of economic
activity increases by 15% per capi...
!
2. Social instinct !!
!
The “suburban era” only represents .001% of our time on earth.!
!
Humans grew up in villages, an...
!
!
!
Uncommon times:!
!
Post-war culture & economics!
are ending.!!
+!!
3rd industrial revolution !
is beginning. !
!
!
!
!
!
3rd Industrial revolution !
is now beginning.!
!
!
!
!
!
!
Engine
driven!
economy!
1850’s!
!
!
!
!
!
Electricity!
driven!
economy!
1880’s!
!
!
!
!
!
Digital
driven!
economy!
1...
!
!
2005 !
!
!
!
2013 !
!
!
!
2005 !
!
!
!
2013 !
!
!
!
Tipping point in the digital revolution !
!
!
!
!
!
!
Two consequences !
!
!
!
!
!
!
1. Social !
!
!
!
!
Villages defined !
and constrained
by location!
!
!
!
!
Villages span
geographies and
identities !
!
!
!
!
200,000BC - ...
!
!
2. Economic !
!
!
!
!
1960 - 2005 !
!
!
!
!
2005 - !
!
!
Tectonic shift!
1960-2005!
!
Technology !
is Niche!
1960-2005!
!
Technology !
is Niche!
Innovation hubs:!
Silicon Valley!
Sources of capital:!
Sand Hill Road!
Industries:!
IT...
1960-2005!
!
!
Less than 3% GDP
globally!
2005 –!
!
Technology is
Unbounded!
2005 –!
!
Technology is
Unbounded!
Sources of capital:!
Sand Hill, Angels, P2P!
Industries:!
All!
Tools of production:!
AP...
2005 --!
!
!
Unlimited impact !
on global GDP!
!
!
!
!
!
Urban Villages !!
+!!
3rd Industrial revolution!!
=!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
Radical opportunity!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
Urban!
density !
= !
Higher
economic!
output !
!
!
!
!
Village !
values !
= !
New
economic!
behaviors!
!
Urban!
Econom...
!
!
Digital
Ubiquity !
!
!
!
!
Industries
Disrupted !
!
!
Third
Industrial!
Revolution!
Urban !
+!
Digital!
Revolutions!
!
!
Village Values !
!
!
Modern !
Village !
Economies!
Marketplace!!
Crowd!!
Social SaaS!
!
!
Village Values !
Marketplaces!
Exchanges of goods and
services.!
!
!
Why now?!
!
SMBs & Makers!
Gig Economy!
Mobile & ...
Crowd!
Sourcing money or
information via the crowd.!
!
!
Why now?!
!
Mobile & Web penetration!
SMBs & Makers!
Financial in...
Social SaaS!
Community driven, !
low friction !
Software as a Service.!
!
!
Why now?!
!
Cloud!
Open Source!
Mobile & Web p...
!
!
!
Three principles for !
!
Marketplaces!
Crowd!
Social SaaS!
!
In our new era !!
!
!
!
Mission!
!
Humans seek purpose
and meaning. !
!
Employees want to build
towards mission and are
best motivated
intrinsical...
Proprietary

Supply !
!
!
There is near infinite
demand on the web for
unique & valuable
product, services or
information.!...
Global
Orientation!
!
!
The world is now !
wired and flat.!
!
Customers and
competition will come
from every !
corner of th...
The Village Economy!!
!
!
!
Terrence Rohan!
@tmrohan!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
References!
•  http://www.theatlanticcities.com/jobs-and-economy/2012/06/why-cities-are-growing-faster-sub...
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
References!
•  http://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/dotcom/Insights%20and%20pubs/MGI/Research/Technolo...
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The Village Economy

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The Village Economy

  1. 1. The Village Economy!! ! ! ! Terrence Rohan! @tmrohan!
  2. 2. ! ! ! Uncommon times:! ! Post-war culture & economics! are ending.!! +!! 3rd industrial revolution ! is beginning. ! ! !
  3. 3. ! ! ! Post-war culture and economics ! are ending.! ! ! !
  4. 4. http://www.theatlanticcities.com/jobs-and-economy/2012/06/why-cities-are-growing-faster-suburbs/2420/! http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/urbanization/us_cities_in_the_global_economy! Living! For the first time in 100 years, suburbs are dying, and cities are growing.! ! ! ! Urban life, culture and businesses are thriving.! ! Poised for global growth, cities already account for 80% of ! global GDP. ! !
  5. 5. Transport! Car culture is dying. ! ! ! For the first time in 50 years, we’ve seen a steady 2.5% decline in miles driven / yr over the past 8 years. ! ! Public transport, biking, ride sharing are at the highest ridership in 60 years. ! !
  6. 6. Retail! How we shop is radically changing. ! ! ! Offline, malls are dying at 10% a year; and urban experiential! retail is booming.! ! Online, e-commerce is already at 4% of GDP of the G20 ! !
  7. 7. Money! Monetary systems are being re-written.! ! ! Like Naspter to music, digital currencies will upend! international systems. ! ! Peer-to-peer provides real alternatives to lending and investing. ! ! Cash is no longer king.! ! !
  8. 8. http://www.forbes.com/sites/jeannemeister/2012/08/14/job-hopping-is-the-new-normal-for-millennials-three-ways- to-prevent-a-human-resource-nightmare/! http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/10/jobs/embracing-the-millennials-mind-set-at-work.html?_r=0! Work! Work is viewed, valued and practiced differently. ! ! ! Meaning and a sense of purpose, not monetary upside, ! are the primary drivers for Gen Y in the workplace.! ! There are 42m freelancers! in the US, up from 10m in 2005. ! ! !
  9. 9. Ownership! Concept of ownership is being re-defined.! ! ! Driven by Gen Y sensibilities, the sharing economy already generates $5b+ a yr. ! ! Home ownership is at 20 yr lows and renting is at all time highs. ! ! ! http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21573104-internet-everything-hire-rise-sharing-economy!
  10. 10. Services! “Sacred” public institutions are being challenged.! ! ! •  Education! •  Public Transport! •  Urban Development! •  Science! •  Healthcare! •  Space! ! Private companies are providing “public” goods: !
  11. 11. Companies! Economic power is shifting towards start- ups, makers & SMBs.! ! ! Technology and startups represent largest job and GDP growth. ! ! SMBs account for over 50% of both GDP and jobs. ! ! Makers, including craft & hardware, are a $50b market.! !
  12. 12. Goods! Consumer preferences are radically changing. ! ! ! Big box brands are losing favor to the trends of personalization, craft, local, artisan, and so on.! ! One category alone, local and organic food, is a combined $40b market. !
  13. 13. Entertainment! Media has completely changed.! ! ! Media production & consumption has been turned on its head: ! ! Music, News, Movies, TV industries have all contracted in the past 20 years. ! ! Yet there has never been more Music, News, Movies and TV available to everyone.!
  14. 14. ! ! ! Post-war life is ending.! ! ! !
  15. 15. ! ! ! ! Urban Villages are rising.!! Modern cities with the communal values, practices & preferences of villages ! ! ! ! !
  16. 16. ! ! ! ! ! Village Values! Urban Economy!
  17. 17. Denser, community living ! Walking, Biking, Public Transport ! Urban shopping experiences ! Wired ! citizens and businesses ! Craft, Local Products ! Meaningful work ! Sharing, Lower consumerism ! Makers, Small business ! Urban Village!
  18. 18. ! ! ! ! Why? ! ! ! ! !
  19. 19. ! 1. Economic advantage !! ! Whenever a city doubles in size, every measure of economic activity increases by 15% per capita. ! Cities make us more productive, and life, often better. ! !
  20. 20. ! 2. Social instinct !! ! The “suburban era” only represents .001% of our time on earth.! ! Humans grew up in villages, and we are instinctually drawn to ! communal life, practices & values.! ! !
  21. 21. ! ! ! Uncommon times:! ! Post-war culture & economics! are ending.!! +!! 3rd industrial revolution ! is beginning. ! ! !
  22. 22. ! ! ! 3rd Industrial revolution ! is now beginning.! ! ! !
  23. 23. ! ! ! Engine driven! economy! 1850’s! ! ! ! ! ! Electricity! driven! economy! 1880’s! ! ! ! ! ! Digital driven! economy! 1990’s! ! !
  24. 24. ! ! 2005 ! ! ! ! 2013 ! !
  25. 25. ! ! 2005 ! ! ! ! 2013 ! ! ! ! Tipping point in the digital revolution ! ! !
  26. 26. ! ! ! ! Two consequences ! ! ! ! !
  27. 27. ! ! 1. Social ! ! !
  28. 28. ! ! Villages defined ! and constrained by location! ! ! ! ! Villages span geographies and identities ! ! ! ! ! 200,000BC - 2005 ! ! ! ! ! 2005 - ! ! ! ! ! 150 ! ! ! ! ! 150 ! ! ! ! ! 150 ! ! ! ! ! 150 ! ! ! ! ! 150 ! ! !
  29. 29. ! ! 2. Economic ! ! !
  30. 30. ! ! 1960 - 2005 ! ! ! ! ! 2005 - ! ! ! Tectonic shift!
  31. 31. 1960-2005! ! Technology ! is Niche!
  32. 32. 1960-2005! ! Technology ! is Niche! Innovation hubs:! Silicon Valley! Sources of capital:! Sand Hill Road! Industries:! IT primary! Tools of production:! Software, servers! Cost/time of production:! Long & costly! Output:! Client side, Hardware ! Method of distribution:! Retail, Web! Mobile:! > 2B, 2G!
  33. 33. 1960-2005! ! ! Less than 3% GDP globally!
  34. 34. 2005 –! ! Technology is Unbounded!
  35. 35. 2005 –! ! Technology is Unbounded! Sources of capital:! Sand Hill, Angels, P2P! Industries:! All! Tools of production:! API, Cloud, Open Source! Cost/time of production:! Short & Cheap! Output:! Software, Apps, Hardware ! Mobile:! 6B, 3/4G! Innovation hubs:! Global Cities! Method of distribution:! Web, Mobile, Social!
  36. 36. 2005 --! ! ! Unlimited impact ! on global GDP!
  37. 37. ! ! ! ! ! Urban Villages !! +!! 3rd Industrial revolution!! =! ! ! !
  38. 38. ! ! ! ! ! Radical opportunity! ! ! ! ! !
  39. 39. ! ! Urban! density ! = ! Higher economic! output ! ! ! ! ! Village ! values ! = ! New economic! behaviors! ! Urban! Economies! ! ! Village Values ! ! !
  40. 40. ! ! Digital Ubiquity ! ! ! ! ! Industries Disrupted ! ! ! Third Industrial! Revolution!
  41. 41. Urban ! +! Digital! Revolutions! ! ! Village Values ! ! !
  42. 42. Modern ! Village ! Economies!
  43. 43. Marketplace!! Crowd!! Social SaaS!
  44. 44. ! ! Village Values ! Marketplaces! Exchanges of goods and services.! ! ! Why now?! ! SMBs & Makers! Gig Economy! Mobile & Web penetration! Sharing Economy! Urbanization!
  45. 45. Crowd! Sourcing money or information via the crowd.! ! ! Why now?! ! Mobile & Web penetration! SMBs & Makers! Financial inefficiencies! Global Markets ! ! ! Village Values !
  46. 46. Social SaaS! Community driven, ! low friction ! Software as a Service.! ! ! Why now?! ! Cloud! Open Source! Mobile & Web penetration! API! Machine Learning! !! ! Village Values !
  47. 47. ! ! ! Three principles for ! ! Marketplaces! Crowd! Social SaaS! ! In our new era !! ! ! !
  48. 48. Mission! ! Humans seek purpose and meaning. ! ! Employees want to build towards mission and are best motivated intrinsically. ! ! Customers are most loyal when they have a sense a of belonging. ! !
  49. 49. Proprietary
 Supply ! ! ! There is near infinite demand on the web for unique & valuable product, services or information.! ! If your good can be found elsewhere, the web is hyper efficient at surfacing alternatives. ! !
  50. 50. Global Orientation! ! ! The world is now ! wired and flat.! ! Customers and competition will come from every ! corner of the globe. ! ! ! ! !
  51. 51. The Village Economy!! ! ! ! Terrence Rohan! @tmrohan!
  52. 52. ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! References! •  http://www.theatlanticcities.com/jobs-and-economy/2012/06/why-cities-are-growing-faster-suburbs/2420/! •  http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/05/23/u-s-cities-growing-faster-than-suburbs/! •  http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/urbanization/urban_world_cities_and_the_rise_of_the_consuming_class! •  http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/19/magazine/19Urban_West-t.html?pagewanted=all&_r=1&! •  http://usa.streetsblog.org/2013/02/27/for-eighth-year-in-a-row-the-average-american-drove-fewer-miles-in-2012/! •  http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/10/us/use-of-public-transit-in-us-reaches-highest-level-since-1956-advocates- report.html! •  http://www.businessinsider.com/shopping-malls-are-going-extinct-2014-1! •  http://www.theguardian.com/social-enterprise-network/2014/feb/19/generation-y-millennials-job-seekers-money- financial-security-fulfilment! •  http://www.forbes.com/sites/groupthink/2013/07/03/forget-the-jobs-report-focus-on-the-freelance-economy/! •  https://www.bcgperspectives.com/content/articles/ media_entertainment_strategic_planning_4_2_trillion_opportunity_internet_economy_g20/#chapter1! •  http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21573104-internet-everything-hire-rise-sharing-economy! •  http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-05/us-rents-rise-new-all-time-high-homeownership-rate-stuck-18-year- low! •  http://www.apta.com/mediacenter/pressreleases/2013/Pages/130311_Ridership.aspx! •  http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB124294047987244803! •  http://www.oracle.com/oms/retail/wp-evolution-experience-retailing-1896570.pdf! •  http://mobithinking.com/mobile-marketing-tools/latest-mobile-stats/a#uniquesubscribers! •  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_Revolution! •  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Industrial_Revolution!
  53. 53. ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! References! •  http://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/dotcom/Insights%20and%20pubs/MGI/Research/Technology%20and %20Innovation/The%20great%20transformer/MGI_Impact_of_Internet_on_economic_growth.ashx! •  http://money.cnn.com/2010/02/02/news/companies/napster_music_industry/!

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