Eddie Tofpik provides a technical analysis of the sugar market and Brazil. He discusses key price levels and dates for sugar prices based on Fibonacci retracements and chart patterns. Tofpik also analyzes the US Dollar vs. Brazilian Real exchange rate and natural gas prices as proxies related to sugar. He concludes by recapping the important technical levels and potential future dates that sugar prices may reach those levels based on the current market analysis.

1. S U G A R R U S H !S U G A R R U S H !
SUGAR AND THE CITY!
Perspectives on the
Sugar Market & Brazil!
Eddie Tofpik
Member of the Society of Technical Analysts.
Market Technicians Association (affiliate)
New York – 14th
May 2013
SUGAR AND THE CITY! 3

2. Last time we met
In London
In October 2012!

3. 18.09…KEY!

4. 18
18.09 ……..!

5. …so what does it
look like…
Now!

6. So what can we see
here?

14. …to recap!

15. What have we learned since Oct 2012!
• 1) 18.09 Absolute Fib ultimately failed as support –
now resistance!
• 2) Long MA (currently 19.13 ) still acting as massive
overhead resistance!
• 3) Key Reversals Up all ultimately failed – though
supportive short-term!
• 4)…but KR’s Down rare & only 50:50!
• 5) Market is bearish but in no hurry to decline!
Take a look again!

16. All pretty bearish!
Let’s look fresh
again!

17. The Monthly Chart

18. The Monthly Chart

19. The Monthly Chart

20. The Monthly Chart

21. The Monthly Chart
So now lets get
closer!

22. The Weekly Chart – Bearish Schiff Pitchfork
Looking good!
So now lets get
closer!

23. The Daily Chart – Bearish Schiff Pitchfork STILL
Looking good!
Let’s look into the
future!

24. Key points in price &
time !

25. Key points in price &
time !

26. To recap!
• Important price levels
– 1) 18.09 (18.04) – 50% Absolute Fib!
– 2) 16.48
– 3) 15.20
– 4) 13.78 – 31.2% Absolute Fib!
– 5) 13.00 is important (low of 2010) but to me 13.78
is key!
Important dates
1)5th
– 18th
June best 11th
June
2)23rd
– 30th
August best 26th
August
3)23rd
– 31st
October best 31st
October
4)30th
December – 15th
January best 8th
January
2014
All dates best fit at the current time!

27. To recap!
• Important price levels
– 1) 18.09 (18.04) – 50% Absolute Fib!
– 2) 16.48
– 3) 15.20
– 4) 13.78 – 31.2% Absolute Fib!
– 5) 13.00 is important (low of 2010) but to me 13.78
is key!
Important dates
1)5th
– 18th
June best 11th
June
2)23rd
– 30th
August best 26th
August
3)23rd
– 31st
October best 31st
October
4)30th
December – 15th
January best 8th
January
2014
All dates best fit at the current time!I pause now for questions!

28. U. S. Dollar
vs.
Brazilian Real

29. …from last time
Back in October
In London

30. One word of caution!
The chances of a False Break
are increasing!

31. …so what does it
look like…
Now!

32. One word of caution!
The chances of a False Break
are increasing!

33. 100%
RIGHT!

34. 100%
RIGHT!

35. So what happened
next?

36. The coincidence of Fib support at 1.9450-1.9455 proved
very good!
So where now?

38. Lots of sideways!

41. More of the same perhaps?
Support on the Uptrend & the 50% Fib.
Resistance from the Long MA & April
highs!

43. I pause for questions!

44. NYMEX
NatGas
As a proxy for
Fertilizer costs!

45. …from last time
Back in October
In London!

46. So many bullish points last
time! (11) – a bit of a mess!

52. NEW!
The
Handymax
Index!!

56. Uptrend good – Reverse H&S
good (evidence that H+S work
s here) – Downtrend only a 2
pointer. Expect a move up to

57. I am mindful that time
is short
so…..

58. Here is the final bit!

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