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NY Sugar Dinner Week Presentation 2012

T
TOFPIK

A presentation on the current state of the Raw Sugar futures market, the USDBRL & NatGas as a proxy beta hedge for fertilizer input costs - New York, May 2012

1 of 62
SUGAR RUSH!
SUGAR AND THE CITY!
SUGAR AND THE CITY!                          2
Perspectives on the
Sugar Market!


Eddie Tofpik
Member of the Society of Technical Analysts.
Market Technicians Association (affiliate)



New York – 15th May 2012
NY Sugar Dinner Week Presentation 2012
NY Sugar Dinner Week Presentation 2012
NY Sugar Dinner Week Presentation 2012
…so what does it
   look like…

     Now!
NY Sugar Dinner Week Presentation 2012
Ad

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NY Sugar Dinner Week Presentation 2012

  • 1. SUGAR RUSH! SUGAR AND THE CITY! SUGAR AND THE CITY! 2 Perspectives on the Sugar Market! Eddie Tofpik Member of the Society of Technical Analysts. Market Technicians Association (affiliate) New York – 15th May 2012
  • 5. …so what does it look like… Now!
  • 35. U. S. Dollar vs. Brazilian Real
  • 42. Let’s take a look longer term
  • 47. Hedging your input costs • Hedging your output income is only part of the story… • …sure you could also hedge your FX exposure… USDBRL, etc… • …but look at your input costs! • Fertilizer costs…hedging? • Its behind seed technology & crop protection – should it be? • When prices rise, reducing fertiliser use & keeping yields the same maintains profitability – what happens when prices stall or fall? • Great leaps in seed technology & precision farming in recent years – fertilizer importance decreased. – should it therefore be ‘unhedged’?
  • 58. I am mindful that time is short so…..
  • 59. See you in London later this year for the Sugar Dinner there …and…
  • 60. Here is the final bit!
  • 61. This Publication is issued by ADM Investor Services International Limited (‘ADMISI’ which is regulated by The Financial Services Authority and is a member of The London Stock Exchange. References to ‘we’, ‘us’ and ‘our’ in this Publication shall mean ADMISI unless otherwise stated. This Publication was prepared and distributed by us for information purposes only, and may contain information, advice, recommendations and/or opinions, which may be used as the basis for trading undertaken by us and our officers, employees, associated and/or affiliated companies. This Publication should not be construed as solicitation, nor as offering advice for the purposes of the purchase or sale of any derivative, security or investment. The information and opinions contained within this Publication were considered by us to be valid when published. This Publication may also contain information that has been provided to us by third parties. The source of such information may be disclosed within this Publication where relevant. Whilst we consider we have taken all reasonable steps to ensure the information is correct, we do not under any circumstances whatsoever, warrant the accuracy or completeness of such information. Any person placing reliance upon this Publication to undertake trading, does so entirely at their own risk, and accordingly, we do not accept any liability as a result, whether direct or indirectly incurred. Derivatives and securities markets may be subject to rapid and unexpected price movements, and past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Currency movements may also have an unfavourable, as well as favourable effect on the value of the underlying investment and/or assets. Investments and/or strategies discussed herein, may not be suitable for all investors. Accordingly, if any person reading this Publication has doubts about their particular suitability, they should consult an independent investment adviser.
  • 62. Eddie’s Crayons… +44 20 7390 2952 (24 Hours) eddie.tofpik@admisi.com