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Flash comment: Lithuania
      Economic commentary by Economic Research Department                                                                                     November 28, 2011


  AB Bank Snoras goes into bankruptcy

      Lithuanian banking sector: Bank assets
      (as of September, 2011), EUR bn                                                 On 24th of November the Bank of Lithuania revoked the license AB
                                                                                      bankas Snoras and will apply to court regarding bankruptcy. The
                SEB                                                     6.47
            Swedbank                                            5.08
                                                                                      Board of the Bank of Lithuania took the decision after the analysis
                DNB                                 3.18                              performed by the temporary administrator of AB bankas Snoras
        Nordea Bank                             2.52                                  revealed that the bank’s situation is significantly worse than
             Snoras                            2.36                                   previously identified. The Bank of Lithuania reports that out of
        Dans ke Bank                    1.35                                          previously thought EUR 2.36 billion assets around EUR 1 billion is
           Ūkio bank                    1.33
                                                                                      missing or was incorrectly accounted1.
         Šiaulių Bank                0.79
      UniCredit Bank             0.37
            Citadele             0.25                                                 Outcome
                            0        1    2     3      4    5      6      7           The bank is not systemic and does not pose any significant risk to
                           Source: Association of Lithuanian Banks, 2011              the whole banking system in Lithuania. The total deposits in all
                                                                                      banks were little changed during last week.

      Credit default swaps (CDS), basis points                                        The remaining assets are sufficient to cover all insured deposits;
      600                                                                             government will not suffer direct losses but will need to provide
                 Lithuania, EUR
      550        Latvia, EUR                                                          temporal liquidity to deposit insurance fund. Deposits amounting to
                 Italy, USD
      500
                 Germany, 10 Year, USD
                                                                                      EUR 1.2 billion are insured and will be paid out within one month
      450                                                                             since the initiation of bankruptcy. Total corporate and private
      400                                                                             deposits at AB bankas Snoras amounted to EUR 1.75 billion.
      350
      300
                                                                                      Initial estimates show that ca 250 companies have deposits in
      250
                                                                                      excess of insured amount and around 30 of them might become
      200
                                                                                      insolvent. Some municipalities and government institutions will also
      150                                                                             be affected, but Bank of Lithuania said there will be no preferential
      100                                                                             treatment.
       50
            01   02   03        04   05   06     07    08   09     10    11           Considering the losses of private sector, direct effects to the
                                          11
                                                    Source: Reuters EcoWin            economy will be small and short-lived. However, loss of consumer
                                                                                      and business confidence, liquidity problems (depositors still have
                                                                                      no access to their accounts) and uncertainty regarding counterparty
                                                                                      risk will have a noticeable affect on output this quarter.
                                                                                      Bankruptcy of AB Bankas Snoras is less significant for the
                                                                                      economic developments in 2012 and 2013. Already before this, the
                                                                                      worsening euro area debt problem has nudged some companies
                                                                                      into taking precautionary action and reducing inventories and
                                                                                      postponing wage increases, hiring and capital investments.
                                                                                                                                               Nerijus Mačiulis
                                                                                                                                              Chief Economist
                                                                                                                                             + 370 688 76578
                                                                                                                                 nerijus.maciulis@swedbank.lt



  1
      More on this can be found at:
  http://www.lbank.lt/the_bank_of_lithuania_revoked_the_licence_of_ab_bankas_snoras_and_will_apply_to_court_regarding_bankruptcy


Swedbank Economic Research Department                                   Flash comment is published as a service to our customers. We believe that we have used
                                                                        reliable sources and methods in the preparation of the analyses reported in this publication.
SE-105 34 Stockholm, Sweden
                                                                        However, we cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the report and cannot be
ek.sekr@swedbank.com
                                                                        held responsible for any error or omission in the underlying material or its use. Readers are
www.swedbank.com
                                                                        encouraged to base any (investment) decisions on other material as well. Neither
                                                                        Swedbank nor its employees may be held responsible for losses or damages, direct or
Legally responsible publisher
                                                                        indirect, owing to any errors or omissions in Flash comment.
Cecilia Hermansson, +46 8 5859 7720

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Flash Coment: Lithuania November 28, 2011

  • 1. Flash comment: Lithuania Economic commentary by Economic Research Department November 28, 2011 AB Bank Snoras goes into bankruptcy Lithuanian banking sector: Bank assets (as of September, 2011), EUR bn On 24th of November the Bank of Lithuania revoked the license AB bankas Snoras and will apply to court regarding bankruptcy. The SEB 6.47 Swedbank 5.08 Board of the Bank of Lithuania took the decision after the analysis DNB 3.18 performed by the temporary administrator of AB bankas Snoras Nordea Bank 2.52 revealed that the bank’s situation is significantly worse than Snoras 2.36 previously identified. The Bank of Lithuania reports that out of Dans ke Bank 1.35 previously thought EUR 2.36 billion assets around EUR 1 billion is Ūkio bank 1.33 missing or was incorrectly accounted1. Šiaulių Bank 0.79 UniCredit Bank 0.37 Citadele 0.25 Outcome 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 The bank is not systemic and does not pose any significant risk to Source: Association of Lithuanian Banks, 2011 the whole banking system in Lithuania. The total deposits in all banks were little changed during last week. Credit default swaps (CDS), basis points The remaining assets are sufficient to cover all insured deposits; 600 government will not suffer direct losses but will need to provide Lithuania, EUR 550 Latvia, EUR temporal liquidity to deposit insurance fund. Deposits amounting to Italy, USD 500 Germany, 10 Year, USD EUR 1.2 billion are insured and will be paid out within one month 450 since the initiation of bankruptcy. Total corporate and private 400 deposits at AB bankas Snoras amounted to EUR 1.75 billion. 350 300 Initial estimates show that ca 250 companies have deposits in 250 excess of insured amount and around 30 of them might become 200 insolvent. Some municipalities and government institutions will also 150 be affected, but Bank of Lithuania said there will be no preferential 100 treatment. 50 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Considering the losses of private sector, direct effects to the 11 Source: Reuters EcoWin economy will be small and short-lived. However, loss of consumer and business confidence, liquidity problems (depositors still have no access to their accounts) and uncertainty regarding counterparty risk will have a noticeable affect on output this quarter. Bankruptcy of AB Bankas Snoras is less significant for the economic developments in 2012 and 2013. Already before this, the worsening euro area debt problem has nudged some companies into taking precautionary action and reducing inventories and postponing wage increases, hiring and capital investments. Nerijus Mačiulis Chief Economist + 370 688 76578 nerijus.maciulis@swedbank.lt 1 More on this can be found at: http://www.lbank.lt/the_bank_of_lithuania_revoked_the_licence_of_ab_bankas_snoras_and_will_apply_to_court_regarding_bankruptcy Swedbank Economic Research Department Flash comment is published as a service to our customers. We believe that we have used reliable sources and methods in the preparation of the analyses reported in this publication. SE-105 34 Stockholm, Sweden However, we cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the report and cannot be ek.sekr@swedbank.com held responsible for any error or omission in the underlying material or its use. Readers are www.swedbank.com encouraged to base any (investment) decisions on other material as well. Neither Swedbank nor its employees may be held responsible for losses or damages, direct or Legally responsible publisher indirect, owing to any errors or omissions in Flash comment. Cecilia Hermansson, +46 8 5859 7720