Describes what houshold projections are and why there are different variants.

1. Household Projections for Wales
(2014-based)
Key points

2. What are Household Projections?
• Provide an estimate of the number of future households
by type, they are not forecasts.
• Calculated based on assumptions about:
- Births
- Deaths
- Migration
- Household formation rates
• Assumptions are generally based on recent trends.

3. Why are there different variants of
Household Projections?
• Assumptions which Household Projections are based on
could change in the future.
• To show the uncertainty of future changes variants are
produced using alternative assumptions.
• Variants do not signify upper or lower bounds (like
confidence intervals): they show what the projections could
look like if the assumptions changed.
• This slideshow presents Key results of the Main
Household Projections i.e. if recent trends continue.

4. Household Definitions
Household Definition: One person living alone, or a group of
people (not necessarily related) living at the same address
who share cooking facilities and share a living room or sitting
room or dining area
This includes Sheltered Accommodation and people living in
caravans on any type of site that is their usual residence.

5. • In total there are 12 household types, these can be
simplified into 5 categories.
• 1-person households
• 2-person households
• 3-person households
• 4-person households
• 5+ person households
Household Types Part 1

6. The household types are defined by
the people who live within them; for
example, a 2-adult household with one
child would be called a 3-person
household.
Household Types Part 2
The number of individuals inhabiting
certain households is taken and the
population projections are applied to
determine the number of inhabitants in
those households in the future; for
example, 1-adult households are
projected to increase significantly. 2039 Projection: 528,099
2014 Base: 415,970

7. Cardiff is projected to have the
largest increase (32%) followed
by Swansea (17%), Wrexham
(15%).
Newport, Gwynedd, Rhondda
Cynon Taf, and Gwynedd were
between 11 and 13 percent.
Bridgend, the Vale of Glamorgan,
Flintshire, Carmarthenshire,
Caerphilly and Monmouthshire
increase by 5 and 10 per cent.
Household estimates by local
authority in 2014 & projected
numbers in 2039
- 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000
Isle of Anglesey
Gwynedd
Conwy
Denbighshire
Flintshire
Wrexham
Powys
Ceredigion
Pembrokeshire
Carmarthenshire
Swansea
Neath Port Talbot
Bridgend
Vale of Glamorgan
Rhondda Cynon Taf
Merthyr Tydfil
Caerphilly
Blaenau Gwent
Torfaen
Monmouthshire
Newport
Cardiff
2014 2039

8. What can household projections be used for?
• Planning services at national and local level
• Preparation of Local Development Plans
• Identifying trends for future policy development
• Geographic profiling and comparisons

9. What can’t household projections be used for?
• Do not attempt to predict the effect of future
government policies, economic circumstances, or
changes in the lifestyle of the population on the
projections
• Do not attach any importance to trivial differences
between local authorities or between differing years
for the same local authority

10. The full release is available in both Welsh and
English. Click the image below of the language of
your choice.