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Local Authority Population Projections
for Wales (2014-based):
Principal projection
Key points
What are Population Projections?
• Provide an estimate of the size of the future population,
not forecasts.
• Calculated b...
Why are there different variations of
Population Projections?
• Assumptions which Population Projections are based on
coul...
Populations projected to increase or
decrease steadily between 2014 and 2039
Gwynedd, Wrexham, Ceredigion, Swansea,
Bridge...
Of the remaining authorities:
Conwy, Denbighshire, Flintshire,
Carmarthenshire, Neath Port
Talbot, Vale of Glamorgan,
Caer...
Percentage change in population from
2014 (to 2039)
Isle of Anglesey Neath Port Talbot
Gwynedd Bridgend
Conwy Vale of Glam...
What can population projections be used for?
• Planning services at national and local level,
• Preparation of Local Devel...
What can’t population projections be
used for?
• Do not attempt to predict future government policies,
economic circumstan...
The full release is
available on the
Statistics for Wales
website
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Local Authority Population Projections for Wales (2014-based):Principal projection

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This Slidesharepresents the results of the principal 2014-based local authority population projections for Wales. The assumptions are based on past trends. Projections done in this way do not make allowances for the effects of local or central government policies on future population levels or distribution; they indicate what is expected to happen if these trends continue.

Published in: Data & Analytics
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Local Authority Population Projections for Wales (2014-based):Principal projection

  1. 1. Local Authority Population Projections for Wales (2014-based): Principal projection Key points
  2. 2. What are Population Projections? • Provide an estimate of the size of the future population, not forecasts. • Calculated based on assumptions about: - Births, - Deaths, - Migration. • Assumptions generally based on recent trends.
  3. 3. Why are there different variations of Population Projections? • Assumptions which Population Projections are based on could change in the future. • To show uncertainty of future changes variations are produced on alternative assumptions. • Variants do not signify upper or lower bounds, but what population could look like if assumptions changed • This slideshow presents Key results of the Main Population Projections i.e. if recent trends continue.
  4. 4. Populations projected to increase or decrease steadily between 2014 and 2039 Gwynedd, Wrexham, Ceredigion, Swansea, Bridgend, Cardiff, Rhondda Cynon Taf, Newport Isle of Anglesey, Blaenau Gwent, Powys Up Of those showing a steady projected population increase, Cardiff is by far the largest (25.5%) Down Cardiff *A full list of authorities can be found on the following slide
  5. 5. Of the remaining authorities: Conwy, Denbighshire, Flintshire, Carmarthenshire, Neath Port Talbot, Vale of Glamorgan, Caerphilly and Monmouthshire Pembrokeshire, Torfaen and Merthyr Tydfil Population by local authority in 2014 & projected population in 2039 Up by 2039 Down by 2039
  6. 6. Percentage change in population from 2014 (to 2039) Isle of Anglesey Neath Port Talbot Gwynedd Bridgend Conwy Vale of Glamorgan Denbighshire Cardiff Flintshire Rhondda Cynon Taf Wrexham Merthyr Tydfil Powys Caerphilly Ceredigion Blaenau Gwent Pembrokeshire Torfaen Carmarthenshire Monmouthshire Swansea Newport Spark lines show percentage change from 2014 over projection period. The scale is the same on each chart with the black line being no change. E.g. whilst Vale of Glamorgan will see little change in its projected population between 2014 and 2039, Cardiff is projected to have a steady increase.
  7. 7. What can population projections be used for? • Planning services at national and local level, • Preparation of Local Development Plans; • Local Government Finance revenue settlement; • Identifying trends for future policy development • Calculation of other statistics: e.g. Survey weights Geographic profiles/comparisons.
  8. 8. What can’t population projections be used for? • Do not attempt to predict future government policies, economic circumstances or other factors effect on demographic behaviour. • Projections are for local authorities and not to give Wales level projections.
  9. 9. The full release is available on the Statistics for Wales website

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