Final team paper Week 5
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The final team submission for PHL/320
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Final team paper Week 5
- 1. Problem Solutions and Evaluation William Cox, Marcel Wesley, Rodrigo Carrasco, Stacey Troup PHL/320 Critical Thinking and Decision Making In Business Todd Goodling July 11, 2016
- 2. Agenda Historical Adjustment Mechanism Inputs Analysis of Tools & Techniques Source Identification with Credibility Conclusion Risk Mitigation with Critical Thinking References Overview Solution Explanation Recommended Solution – The Four Factors & Six Sigma
- 3. Recommended Solution The Four Factors
- 5. So many sources, which one do we choose? Our sources were selected based on their relevancy to critical thinking, contingency planning and the financial sector – Who was chosen – Why were they chosen Source Identification Solid Source Selection is Paramount to a Successful Argument
- 6. Claims vs. Sources As Different as Night and Day
- 7. Critical Thinking Tools & Techniques • Overcome Barriers • Evaluate root causes • Separate Facts from Beliefs • Evaluate Arguments & Claims • Analogy and Inductive Reasoning Think it Through
- 8. Alternatives Based on Barriers • Human Resources • Financial Planning • Costs Analyzing Decision Making Process Generate Alternative Contingencies • Employment Satisfaction • Substantial Financial Foundation • Cost Mitigation through Historical Data Research Contingency Planning
- 9. MEDIUM HIGH VERY HIGH LOW MEDIUM HIGH VERY LOW LOW MEDIUM VERY LIKELY LIKELY UNLIKELY INSIGNIFICANT MODERATE CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES PROBABILITY Risk Mitigation with Critical Thinking Analyze the Full Risks
- 10. Using Critical Thinking to Mitigate Risk Using critical thinking to mitigate risk allows businesses to: -Avoid serious negative consequences However, you must: Carefully weigh decisions Reason on the grounds of all the evidence Take the right time to evaluate the evidence Calculated Risk
- 11. Using Critical Thinking to Mitigate Risk Critical thinking allows businesses to mitigate risk and determine: -What training to provide? -How to simplify processes? -How to avoid redundant activities?
- 12. Conclusion
- 13. Business Planning With Risk of Recession: Economic Contingency Planning. (2016). Retrieved from http://www.forbes.com/sites/billconerly/2012/01/16/business-planning-with-risk-of-recession-economic-contingency-planning/#3aa95ef67cec Carlson, N. (2009). The Startup Entrepreneur's Guide to Risk Management. Retrieved from http://www.businessinsider.com.au/the-startup- entrepreneur-guide-to-risk-management-2009-6 Contingency Planning. (2016). Retrieved from https://resources.lloydsbank.com/business-guides/managing-a-business/contingency-planning Jones, G., George, J. (01/2015). Contemporary Management, 9th Edition [VitalSource Bookshelf version]. Retrieved from https://bookshelf.vitalsource.com/books/1259952487 Krus, D., & Grantham, K. (2012). The mitigation strategy taxonomy: Organizing and classifying risk mitigation strategies. IIE Annual Conference.Proceedings, 1-10. Retrieved from http://search.proquest.com/docview/1151086822?accountid=35812 Moore, B. N., & Parker, R. (2016). Critical Thinking. Chico, CA: California State University. Retrieved from https://apollogrpc.na13.content.force.com/servlet/servlet.EmailAttachmentDownload?q=yNXnGOXTTG72VhDqtWySl8dilQk5qPlqzVIal6xe0mcj%2F0k Z6IIBAZ3aEs1FwNDzkXZGezGFC2VWI8aDwvGy9w%3D%3D References
Editor's Notes
- This Week 5 final presentation as given by Learning Team D will discuss the Four Stages as a predominant measure with additional tie ins to Six Sigma methods as they relate to critical thinking as well as contingency planning. These solutions were selected as a team from a group voting that was administered during the beginning of Week 5. In addition to these chosen methods, we will identify sources to support the team's decision and explain why the sources are credible while explaining the difference between claims and sources and the effect this has on the decision. We will also analyze the various tools and techniques the team used in the critical thinking and decision making process and finally, we will discuss how the team used critical thinking to help mitigate risks related to the problem or business situation. This Week 5 paper brought together most of the team in a very open and team oriented manner.
- The Four Factors® that drive successful decisions, the team outlined in Week 4 consist of: 1) the executive knows exactly the career and business situation he or she is in without illusions, followed by, 2) the executive knows the role he or she has to play (his or her job), and how to play it very effectively, 3) the executive has clear and ambitious goals and, 4) the executive creates cost-effective options for his or her decision-making. These Four Factors® are paramount the success of an executive or business plan. The Four Factors® use a systematic approach with a solid set of rules that drive an executive decision as if they are second nature. A confident executive with a strong command of the English language can communicate the decision easily. Successful executives such as Bill Gates and Steve Jobs adapted their decision-making process to fit the needs of their ultimate goals. The changes made continue to meet the framework of the original Four Factors®.
- We, as a team, recognized the differences in the business decision-making process, Six Sigma, and its tools which gave us an opportunity to analyze and focus in the correct areas. Six Sigma gave us the ability to systematically identify the root cause of an issue and drive progress to a solution. Also, by having a team with formal Six Sigma training, they have become the go-to source for problem-solving and have helped the company to achieve specific goals and objectives. Six Sigma eliminates the gut feeling and subject-matter experts, which will lead to marginal results.
- We chose the text books from within the class and the online library. The first being Contemporary Management® with additional content from Critical Thinking® as both textbooks provided solid support for our decisions. We also chose Forbes Magazine® as it is a respected and credible source on a wide variety of business topics. Our last source was the Harvard Business Review as it is also a trusted source for information. The team agreed on only reputable sources while choosing to ignore sources which are considered less reputable. Through the use of these reputable sources we were able to trust our sources, formulate our opinions and trust the sources of our information as part of our critical thinking steps. The evaluation of information is trusted and followed as a matter of fact, rather than opinion, and trusted inexplicitly.
- A claim is an assertion that something is the true, typically without providing evidence or proof. Commonly used phrases such as “an apple a day keeps the doctor away” and campaign speeches in general are considered claims and not proper sources. Alternatively, a source such as a person, book, etc., that gives information in the context of an argument or documenting a source must be credible as well as properly documented. Sources are supported by data such as research and can include Colleges or Universities, Organizations of specific area of expertise (including government websites), specific non profits, etc. The teams use of specific source material from business oriented websites, financial markets websites and school reference materials supports the required source material obligations and requirements for proper reference. Several factors were considered in our sources. We established a line of critical thinking which asked where and who published the source material? Is it appropriate for the argument? And, finally, does it provide the correct direction? Through the use of these key questions we established credible reference sources that encouraged team conversation and participation while providing a base of fact for the argument at hand.
- There are numerous critical thinking tools and techniques that the team used throughout this course. The most prevalent critical thinking skill we discovered and utilized was that of overcoming barriers to our decision including careful evaluation of initial and future root causes (also referred to as critical thinking). We utilized the development of facts through assessing relevant information and credible data, evaluating claims and arguments and their influences and the use of reasoning throughout the planning and implementation stages of the pending decision. It was also agreed among the team that the use of critical thinking was imperative to business decisions as it effects every future decision and outcome of the proposed plan.
- The importance of the decision making process was used and taken into consideration equally. Generating alternatives and prioritizing their importance however, was the most analytical aspect. From the priorities of alternatives, it was determined that a solid contingency plan should be constructed based on risk and probabilities. Each alternative carried a specific risk but was mitigated and was correlated with specific contingency planning to further reduce residual risk.
- This chart is a simplistic visual to demonstrate the probability and consequences process. Through the analyzation of this chart we can surmise that the higher the likelihood probability, the more significant the consequence or risk. Additionally, if the probability of an unwanted contingency is unlikely and has an insignificant level of consequence, the risk is said to be very low. Finally, it can be said from the analysis that if the probability of an unwanted contingency is very likely and has a catastrophic consequence, the risk is said to be very high.
- Critical thinking can be applied whenever there is a need to resolve a problem. Making poor decisions almost always will have a negatively impact on business performance. Therefore, to mitigate this risk, most organizations rely on their leaders to be critical thinkers (Moore and Parker, 2016). To mitigate the risk of serious consequences, it is important to make decisions after carefully weighting all options and reason on the grounds that all the evidence has been provided. It is equally important to take the right time to evaluate all of the evidence. Full evaluation of critical thinking and contingency plans ensure the success of any major business decision. The group agreed that these things, along with the Four Factors were key factors to the success of a decision overall.
- Risk mitigation consists of reducing the impact of risk. The team agrees that critical thinking is imperative to help mitigate risks related to business expansion to assess training, simplify processes, choose a stable supplier, and reduce redundant activities (Carlson 2009).
- We, as a learning team embraced the concepts of Four Factors and Six Sigma within the realm of critical thinking to ensure contingency plans are thoroughly thought out, from the top down, to ensure the best success for the company as a whole. A bulk of our time was spent on the expansion process whereby we applied the critical thinking model and the other concepts from this presentation to formulate a contingency plan that was inclusive of a company’s strengths as well as weaknesses, in order to determine proper next steps in an expansion plan. We all agreed that a combination of the Four Factors, Six Sigma, critical thinking an contingency planning are integral components which must be thought through in order to guide a business decision to success. Beyond the tools used for critical thinking, contingency planning plays a major role in the success of any company. Identifying what can and may go wrong during the implementation of a process or the used example of an expansion of a company, contingency planning must be thought through. All companies utilize contingency plans (the successful ones) to ensure their place in the world and their success. Without this key component to the decision making process, you are almost certainly to see failure.