Presentation on bypassed towns, using examples from the US and Australia, delivered to the 2018 APA Conference

1. STANDIN’ ON A CORNER – ARE BYPASSED
TOWNS DEMOGRAPHICALLY DOOMED?
SIMONE ALEXANDER
APA CONFERENCE, DARWIN – JULY 2018
Bypassed towns and demographic change
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2. PRESENTATION OUTLINE
▪ Background and context
▪ What is a bypassed town?
▪ The role of pop culture, migration and transport
▪ United States – Route 66
▪ The role of transport technology
▪ Winslow, AZ
▪ Australia – the Hume Highway
▪ Seymour and Violet Town, VIC
▪ Concluding remarks
▪ The economic perspective
▪ New opportunities
This presentation is about bypassed towns. Generally bypassed towns are viewed
through an economic lens, but as this is a population conference, I’m going to
concentrate on the demographic perspective. I’m also going to talk about it in
relation to a backdrop of pop culture, migration and transport technology. These
have all influenced our perspectives of bypassed towns.
I will be showing data from two areas – firstly the US, specifically the Route 66 towns
in northern Arizona. Winslow, AZ is the case town study used in the presentation.
I’m then going to contrast this with the experience of two bypassed towns along the
Hume Highway in Victoria – Seymour and Violet Town.
Finally I will touch on the economic perspectives, with particular reference to a study
completed by the NSW Dept of Roads and Maritime Services. I will also touch on the
new opportunities that a bypass presents for these towns.
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3. WHAT IS A BYPASSED TOWN?
▪ “a road or highway that diverts around a town, and takes the flow of through traffic
away from the town” (NSW Dept of Roads and Maritime Services)
▪ Impacts are generally measured in economic terms
The definition used for this presentation is that used by the NSW Dept of Roads and
Maritime Services in their 2012 report “Economic evaluation of town bypasses”
(prepared by Bruno Parolin from UNSW)
The illustrations used in this slide are sourced from the 2006 movie “Cars”. Although
it is fiction, much of the storyline centres around the experience of the bypassed
town Radiator Springs. The movie even references Route 66 and the Interstate 40
and the illustrations take their inspiration from northern Arizona. The illustration on
the right epitomises what happens when a town is bypassed – you need to exit the
freeway in order to travel through there. The premise of “Cars” is that Radiator
Springs was forgotten when it was bypassed and even disappeared from the map.
These sorts of perceptions about the impact of a bypass sit in the context of pop
culture but of course we researchers like to see if the perceptions hold up against the
evidence base.
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4. ROUTE 66
▪ “It was always more than
just a road” – Sally Carrera,
Cars (2006)
▪ Aka the “mother road”,
“main street of America”
▪ Westward migration to
California from the 1930s
▪ Construction of interstate
freeway system from the
late 1950s
▪ Decommissioned in 1985
The pop culture context is further referenced in this slide, but also incorporates
demographic aspects. Sally Carrera, a character in “Cars” says that Route 66 was
more than just a road and this is certainly true when you look at the role the road has
played through the middle part of the twentieth century. It’s also been referred to as
the “mother road” and the “main street of America” – the latter referring to the
importance of the road in the mass wave of migration across the US in the 1930s and
1940s as people left the Midwest for new jobs in California. People travelled by cars
via Route 66 passing through many towns along the way.
From the late 1950s the Interstate freeway system began to be constructed and
gathered pace through the next few decades. Just as Route 66 enabled people to
travel across the country, they soon demanded better and quicker roads.
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5. ▪ Construction ongoing
throughout the 1960s to
1980s
▪ Flagstaff bypass
completed in 1968
▪ Winslow bypass
completed in 1977
▪ Last section around
Williams completed in
1984
ROUTE 66 AND THE INTERSTATE 40 (I-40)
IN ARIZONA
In Arizona the construction of the Interstate 40 took place over two decades. In
some places the Interstate simply replaced Route 66 as a road upgrade, but by and
large each town was bypassed, some by a considerable distance – particularly the
section between Kingman and Seligman.
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6. Source: https://ggwash.org/view/9187/the-evolution-of-amtrak-1971-2011
THE DECLINE OF THE RAILWAY
Many of these northern Arizona towns benefited from their location along major
train lines but over time these fell victim to declining passenger numbers. Winslow
itself had an economy largely based on the railway as well as being located along
Route 66.
The maps show passenger services in the US in 1962 and 2005. Clearly there has
been a huge decline in the number of services and the geographic reach. In northern
Arizona there were at least 3 services per day in 1962, but by 2005 there was “at least
a daily service”. The decline of the railway as a means of transport is part of the story
of the dramatic changes in the way people travel across the country. The Interstate
freeway system offers better roads and faster travel times, and in more recent years
the increasing affordability and frequency of air travel has also had an impact.
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7. Source: US Census Bureau, Census of Population and Housing
Town Year
bypassed
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Flagstaff 1968 3,186 3,891 5,080 7,663 17,214 26,117 34,743 45,857 52,894 65,870
Holbrook 1980 1,206 1,115 1,184 2,336 3,438 4,759 5,785 4,686 4,917 5,053
Kingman 1981 1,276 2,275 -- 3,342 4,525 7,312 9,257 12,722 20,069 28,068
Williams 1984 1,350 2,166 2,622 2,152 3,559 2,386 2,266 2,532 2,842 3,023
Winslow 1977 3,730 3,917 4,577 6,518 8,862 8,066 7,921 8,190 9,520 9,655
POPULATION OF ROUTE 66 TOWNS IN ARIZONA,
1920-2010
This chart shows the population of bypassed towns at each US Census from 1920 to
2010, as well as the year in which it was bypassed by the Interstate 40. Unfortunately
there is no way of telling from the US Census Bureau website if these town
boundaries are stable over time.
Interestingly, Winslow was the largest town in northern Arizona in the 1920s and
1930s, but its population was surpassed by Flagstaff’s in 1940. From 1950 Flagstaff
has grown far more rapidly and is now by far the largest town in northern Arizona. It
is the location of high tech manufacturing as well the University of Northern Arizona,
and is at the junction of Route 89 which runs south to Phoenix and north to the
Canadian border.
Kingman has grown more rapidly since 1990. It too is at an important transport
junction, with the Interstate 40 continuing to California, and Route 95 heading north
to Las Vegas.
A key aspect of this slide is whether or not the population of these towns declined
after they were bypassed. In general the answer is no. Only Holbrook showed a
decline after the bypass was completed in 1980 – the 1990 population was much
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8. lower compared to 1980, but increased marginally in the last two Censuses.
Winslow was the other town to show population decline, but this was occurring
BEFORE the bypass was completed in 1977. The population in 1960 was 8,862 but
dropped to 8,066 in 1970, and there was another marginal decline to 7,921 in 1980.
The population increase that has occurred since is largely due to the construction of a
prison.
7

9. WINSLOW
So why choose Winslow as a case study? And why is does the title of this
presentation refer to “standin’ on a corner”? This research was inspired by a road
trip undertaken by my partner and I back in May 2016. We found ourselves in
Flagstaff with some spare time, and he – as someone whose musical tastes were
developed in the 1970s – was keen to stand on a corner in Winslow Arizona. For
those of you unfamiliar with this sentiment, it refers to a lyric in a song by The Eagles
called “Take it easy”. The town has since dedicated a park to the lyric (Standin’ on a
corner park) located along the old Route 66 road in Winslow.
As a demographer and frequent traveller, I tend to view places through a
demographic lens. As we drove down the old Route 66 route, I couldn’t help but
notice how “dead” the town looked. There were many vacant houses and shops, and
there weren’t many people around. When I read more about the history of the town,
I started to wonder about what happens to towns from a demographic perspective
when they are bypassed.
8

10. MAP OF WINSLOW
Sources: Google Earth, 2015
http://www.route66university.com/maps/arizona.php
This screen grab shows the layout of Winslow. You can clearly see the Interstate 40
curving around the town. The old Route 66 went through the centre of town, running
alongside the railway line.
The diagram on the right shows a map of Winslow dating from 1969. Interestingly it
shows the Interstate as a proposed road, indicating that there was a significant lead
time between the conception of the road, and its construction and completion.
Major road projects involve considerable capital expenditure and just don’t happen
overnight.
Since my visit in May 2016 I’ve discovered that a brand new shopping centre was
constructed on the northern side of town near the freeway interchange. This
probably explains why the old Route 66 was relatively “dead” as the new shopping
centre would have pulled business away from the traditional one along Route 66.
Photographs of Winslow from the 1950s and 1960s show that Route 66 was vibrant
with many cars and shops. But in 2016, it’s the Standin’ on a corner park, along with
a café and a souvenir shop that comprise the commercial element.
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11. 0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Source: US Census Bureau, Census of Population and Housing
▪ 2016 population
estimate is 9,754
▪ 2017 population
estimate is 9,402
9,655
7,921
8,862
POPULATION OF WINSLOW, 1890-2010
This slide merely takes the information presented in slide 7 and puts it in a graph for
Winslow only. As previously indicated, Winslow’s population started to decline
before the bypass was completed, and has only increased after 1990 due to the
construction of a prison.
The US Census Bureau also produces annual population estimates for small area
geographies in the same way the ABS does here. In 2016 the estimate for Winslow
was slightly higher than the 2010 Census, but in 2017 the estimate declined sharply
to 9,402 – lower than the 2010 Census. Of course it’s not ideal to compare Census
counts and population estimates but it does provide an indication of the
demographic fortunes since 2010.
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12. 0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
0-4 5-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+
Persons
Age in years
1980 2010
Source: US Census Bureau, Census of Population and Housing (1980 and 2010)
AGE STRUCTURE OF WINSLOW, 1980 AND 2010
Are there any clues in the age structure as to the demographic fortunes of Winslow?
This graph compares the age structure in 1980 and 2010. There is a very large cohort
of 5-24 year olds in both years, which is not a particularly helpful grouping. The 5-24
year olds of 1980 would be 35-54 years in 2010. There is a decline in the number
which would be explained by out-migration and mortality.
However the main feature is significant ageing of the population, particularly through
the middle aged groups ie 35-64 years.
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13. ▪ Duplication and bypass work began
in the 1960s
▪ Chiltern to Barnawartha bypass
completed in 1962
▪ Wodonga bypass completed in 2007
▪ All towns in Victoria were bypassed
with the completion of the
Wodonga bypass
▪ All towns in NSW were bypassed
with the completion of the Holbrook
bypass in 2013
HUME HIGHWAY IN VICTORIA
The Hume Highway (or Freeway) is the major road link inland between Sydney and
Melbourne. This map shows the location of larger towns along the route within
Victoria. Duplication and bypass work started in the 1960s and continued throughout
the next few decades. Wodonga was the last town in Victoria to be bypassed (2007).
The last town along the Hume Highway to be bypassed was Holbrook, just north of
Albury, in 2013. So for the last five years it’s been possible to drive from the outskirts
of Melbourne to the outskirts of Sydney without having to stop at a traffic light or go
through a town.
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14. Town/Small Area Year
bypassed
1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016
Broadford Area 1976 3,234 3,382 3,666 3,908 4,301 4,741
Kilmore – Kilmore East 1976 3,280 4,124 4,801 6,135 7,210 8,725
Violet Town and District 1980 1,247 1,311 1,381 1,343 1,473 1,440
Seymour 1982 6,880 6,589 6,765 6,231 6,282 6,230
Benalla 1987 8,275 8,519 8,556 8,532 8,635 8,705
Wangaratta 1994 16,406 15,990 16,619 16,852 17,491 18,472
Wodonga 2007 26,579 28,546 30,338 31,528 33,817 36,868
Sources: ABS, Census of Population and Housing (1991 and 2016), compiled and presented in profile.id;
bypass dates sourced from Wikipedia
POPULATION OF HUME HIGHWAY TOWNS IN VICTORIA,
1991-2016
Unfortunately I do not have a consistent time series for Victorian towns extending
back to the 1920s. However I have sourced this data from .id who do concord the
data based on 2016 boundaries back to 1991, so the populations in this table are
comparable over time. Many of the bypasses were completed prior to 1991 but
regardless, all towns (with the exception of Seymour) were larger in population in
2016 than they were in 1991. Wangaratta did experience a small population decline
between 1991 and 1996 (with the bypass completed in 1994) but it has grown
steadily since. Kilmore – Kilmore East has more than doubled in size since 1991
which is indicative of its location within Melbourne’s economic catchment.
Seymour’s population showed some volatility in the 1990s but dropped between
2001 and 2006, whereafter it has been relatively steady.
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15. SEYMOUR
▪ Located approximately 100km
north of Melbourne
▪ Established in the 1840s along
the Sydney-Melbourne postal
route
▪ Strategic location for transport
▪ Railway arrived 1872
▪ Junction of the Hume
Freeway and Goulburn
Valley Highway
▪ Puckapunyal Army Base
established 1930s
One of the reasons I chose Seymour for a case study is that like Winslow, it was a
railway town with significant employment in this sector due to the location of railway
workshops. A branch line to Mansfield (since closed), meant that passenger numbers
were high and the railway café (photo bottom left) was one of the largest in Victoria.
Historical photographs show it was once a vibrant hub. It was closed many years ago
as passenger numbers dwindled, the Mansfield line was closed, and finally the
railway workshops were closed.
It is located about 100km north of Melbourne which puts it right at the edge of
Melbourne’s commuting catchment. The nearby Puckapunyal Army Base was
established in the 1930s and has been a major influence on growth of the town
depending on government policy relating to defence, ie numbers of personnel
residing in Puckapunyal.
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16. MAP OF SEYMOUR
Source: Google Earth, 2017
Though this Google image isn’t the clearest, the Hume Freeway took a wide loop
around Seymour as it also needed to bypass the Goulburn River. Interestingly, the
Hume Highway never went through the centre of Seymour as it did in Winslow,
instead passing through the northern outskirts of town. I wonder if this explains why
the main street (and original shopping strip) alongside the railway had far more life
than Winslow. However there is a new shopping centre and Woolworths
supermarket located behind the original shops.
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17. 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0 to 4 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84 85 and
over
Numberofpersons
Age in years
1991 2016
Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing (1991 and 2016), compiled and presented in profile.id
AGE STRUCTURE OF SEYMOUR, 1991 AND 2016
This graph shows the age structure of Seymour between 1991 and 2016. Clearly,
there has been significant ageing of the population, with all cohorts under 45 years
declining in size, and all those over 45 increasing. This data provides more clues as to
the demographic fortunes of Seymour as there has been a decline in children and
people of family forming ages, hence the momentum for future increases is reduced.
The ageing of Seymour is replicated in many towns across Victoria and is not a
function of the bypass.
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18. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Mining
Manufacturing
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
Construction
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Accommodation and Food Services
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
Information Media and Telecommunications
Financial and Insurance Services
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
Professional, Scientific and Tech. Services
Administrative and Support Services
Public Administration and Safety
Education and Training
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts and Recreation Services
Other Services
Inadequately described/Not stated
1986 2011
Source: DEWLP, Towns in Time
INDUSTRY OF EMPLOYMENT, SEYMOUR,
1986 AND 2011
The employment structure also provides clues as to the demographic and economic
fortunes of Seymour. Between 1986 and 2011, there was significant decline in the
Public Administration and Safety industry which could reflect changes in government
defence policy and withdrawal of services (the Victorian LGA amalgamations occurred
in 1994). There were also declines in Transport Postal and Warehousing (includes
railway workers) and Manufacturing. On the other hand, there was a large increase
in Health Care and Social Assistance, which is often a major employer in rural towns
and reflects demands from an ageing population.
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19. VIOLET TOWN
▪ Located approximately 175km from
Melbourne, but 30km from Benalla and
45km from Shepparton
▪ First inland surveyed town (1838)
▪ Strategic location for transport
▪ Sydney-Melbourne-Bendigo
▪ North east goldfields
▪ Railway arrived in 1873
I chose Violet Town as a contrast to Seymour, as it’s also a railway town and is located
further from Melbourne. It was also featured in an episode of the ABC program
“Back Roads” earlier this year as an example of a small town with a strong community
spirit and progressive attitude towards the LGBTI population. It also has one of the
largest Farmer’s Markets in northern Victoria, which has been running for 40 years.
Violet Town’s main street is quite historic but like Winslow, had a number of empty
shops. Even the historic Violet Town hotel has been closed since 2009. Like many
small towns, there is an IGA catering to local needs but few other shops.
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20. AGE STRUCTURE OF VIOLET TOWN, 1991 AND 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0 to 4 5 to 9 10 to
14
15 to
19
20 to
24
25 to
29
30 to
34
35 to
39
40 to
44
45 to
49
50 to
54
55 to
59
60 to
64
65 to
69
70 to
74
75 to
79
80 to
84
85 and
over
Numberofpersons
Age in years
1991 2016
Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing (1991 and 2016), compiled and presented in profile.id
The change in the age structure of Violet Town between 1991 and 2016 is similar to
that of Seymour, with a decline in the number of children and people of family
forming age groups, and increases in older cohorts (particularly 55-74 ie older baby
boomers). Violet Town’s population has shown modest increases between 1991 and
2016. The boundary does include the surrounding rural area but without examining
population change data at smaller geographic scales it’s hard to know if the changes
have been in town or in the rural part.
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21. NEW OPPORTUNITIES
Winslow
▪ Standin’ on a corner park
▪ Route 66 nostalgia
▪ Recent designation as a Historic National Route
Seymour
▪ Railway history
▪ Southern part of Mitchell Shire forecast to grow significantly
Violet Town
▪ Commuting distance to larger regional centres
▪ Highly successful Farmer’s Market
The data presented here show that it’s difficult to attribute population change to the
bypass. There are other demographic and wider social changes at play eg economic
shifts. However there is evidence to suggest that the bypass allows towns to reinvent
themselves and seek other ways of encouraging visitation. The Standin’ on a Corner
Park in Winslow does pull people off the Interstate – we weren’t the only people
taking photos that day, and we did spend money in the café and at the petrol station.
Route 66 nostalgia is huge in the US and its recent designation as a Historic National
Route means that bypassed towns along the route can apply for funding to improve
tourist facilities and services.
Seymour has a strong railway history that it can capitalise on, and it has a number of
small attractions such as the Vietnam Veterans Wall. However as Melbourne
continues to expand northwards up the Hume Freeway into the southern part of
Mitchell Shire it will be interesting to see if there are economic spin offs. Growth
around towns such as Wallan and Beveridge will bring the outskirts of Melbourne to
within 60kms of Seymour, improving commuting opportunities to jobs in these areas.
Violet Town already has a successful Farmers Market and it does lie within
commuting distance of larger towns such as Shepparton and Benalla. Travelling 40km
in a rural area is very different to travelling 40km in a major urban area.
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22. THE ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE
▪ NSW Dept of Roads and Maritime Services
▪ Two economic studies (1993 and 2011) – Goulburn, Yass and Gunning
▪ Short term impacts more acute eg business loss and turnover, but long term
impacts more beneficial
▪ Many towns also serve rural hinterlands, not just highway towns
▪ Long planning cycle allows towns and businesses to adjust
Though this is a population conference, it’s worth touching briefly on the economic
side. The 2012 study by the NSW Dept of Roads and Maritime Services is a key piece
of research that examines the economic impacts on three towns in NSW – Goulburn,
Yass and Gunning. Many points are summarised here.
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23. CONCLUSIONS AND FURTHER WORK
▪ A bypass does not automatically result in population loss
▪ Arizona Route 66 towns generally did not lose population as a result of a
bypass
▪ With the exception of Seymour, all Victorian Hume Highway towns were larger
in 2016 compared to 1991
▪ Role of industry, socio-economic status, out-migration and age structure
▪ Further research required
▪ The role of geography
▪ The interaction between people, out-migration and employment
▪ More historical data (population and employment)
▪ Local case studies
The main points of this presentation are summarised here. There are avenues for
further research to be undertaken in the future, particularly around the role of
geography (how is this influenced by proximity to a large metropolitan area for
example), and it would be useful to get more historical data for the Australian towns.
Local case studies that compare different roads would also be useful eg Hume
Highway vs Calder Highway for example.
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