1. S | I | G
Denbury Resources Inc.
Sector Head: Conner Elliott
Analyst: Shane Shuma
1
Current Price: $2.35
Target Price: $5.56
Time Horizon:5 years
NYSE: DNR
2. S | I | GDenbury Company Profile
Company Overview
Sources: Annual Report, Morningstar
• Denbury Resources is an oil and natural gas company with an emphasis
on oil recovery operations using carbon dioxide
• CEO: Christian S. Kendall
• Denbury Resources was founded in 1951 and is headquartered in Plano,
Texas
• As of December 31, 2017 Denbury had 879 employees
• On October 28th, 2018, Denbury announced the purchase of Penn
Virginia Corporation in a $1.7B transaction
• The largest oil and natural gas producer in both Mississippi and Montana
2
Key Ratios
Revenue vs. BOE/dGross Marginvs. Price per Bbl
62%
45%
50%
55%
64%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (Est.)
MarginPercentage
PriceinUSD
Year
Oil Sales Price (per Bbl) Gross Margin %
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
$0
$500,000
$1,000,000
$1,500,000
$2,000,000
$2,500,000
$3,000,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (Est.)
BOE/d
inUSD
Year
BOE/d Revenue
Company DNR OAS CRZO BP
Market Cap $1.06B $2.19B $1.46B $135.08B
EPS (TTM) $0.65 -$0.32 $1.05 $2.58
P/E (TTM) 3.78x 31.04x 15.14x 15.79x
Leverage (TTM) 4.82x 2.12x 4.04x 2.76x
ROA (TTM) 6.05% -1.92% 3.45% 3.05%
EV/EBITDA 8.18x 13.01x 6.00x 5.36x
3. S | I | GDenbury Product Segments
Oil
Regions of Operation
Natural Gas & Carbon Dioxide
• As of 2017, Denbury has 259,745 barrels of oil equivalent in reserves
• Their two main operating areas are in the Gulf Coast and Rocky Mountains
• Oil sales are made on a day to day basis on short term contracts at the
current market price
• Two purchasers each account for at least 10% of their oil and natural gas
revenues, Plains Marketing LP (22%) and Marathon Petroleum Company
(10%) as of 2017
• For the second half of 2018, 40,500 Bbls/d of oil production is hedged
through derivative contracts
• For 2019, 31,500 Bbls/d will be hedged, with minimal contracts in place for
2020
• As of 2017, Denbury has 42,721 MMcf of natural gas reserves
• Denbury produces 11,329 MMcf per day
• Its production is evenly split between the Gulf Coast region and the Rocky Mountain
region
• The Cedar Creek Anticline accounts for 20% of natural gas production
• Denbury has invested 400 million USD in the region, anticipating a return of 400
million barrels equivalent of natural gas
• Denbury makes a small amount of revenue from carbon dioxide transportation and
sales
• As more companies begin EOR operations this part of their business could grow
3
End Segments
• Marathon Petroleum Company refines
Denbury's oil and uses it in fuel products
• Plains Marketing LP buys Denbury's oil and
sells it to refiners, resellers, or exporters
• Most of Denbury's oil is sold at Louisiana
Light Sweet prices
• High-quality, low-sulfur crude oil is sought
after as it can be directly processed into
kerosene, gasoline, and diesel
• Louisiana Light Sweet oil is in high demand,
especially in industrialized nations
Exchange
$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80
LLS
Brent
WTI
OPEC
Mexican
Price per Bbl in USD
OilClassification
Current Price Yearly Average
4. S | I | GIndustry Overview
Competition
Sources: Annual Reports 4
• Denbury leads its peers in revenue per barrel of oil equivalent
• Operating margin is lower than peers because of higher lifting costs
• Denbury faces its greatest competition in the Rocky Mountain region and in
east Texas and Louisiana.
• New proposed pipeline from Permian Basin to the Gulf Coast will allow
competitors to export more oil
• Denbury can compete with larger oil companies because of their enhanced
recovery operations
• Denbury operates over 930 miles of carbon dioxide pipelines
• Denbury owns the only significant natural occurring source of carbon dioxide
in the Gulf Coast
Revenue per BOE Enhanced Oil Recovery Regions
Market Drivers
• As oil fields begin to reach maturity the need for enhanced recovery
operations will increase
• China has begun buying U.S. oil products again and potential
relaxing of trade war with China will lessen the predicted slowdown
of economic growth
• Russia and OPEC member countries have cut production
• Less environmental regulation will allow for the expansion of
pipelines and lower costs
• Rising natural gas prices will help boost Denbury's net income
• Operations in the Gulf Coast are susceptible to natural disasters
$0.00 $10.00 $20.00 $30.00 $40.00 $50.00 $60.00 $70.00 $80.00
CPE
CRZO
OAS
PVAC
DNR
BP
Revenue per BOE
TickerSymbol
15,086
33,616
47,378
6,709
8,411
Permian Gulf Coast Eagle Ford Appalachia Mid-Continent
6. S | I | GDenbury Resources: Buy
Buy
Tailwinds
• Denbury's new acquisition of Penn
Virginia Corporation will increase
production
• Oil prices should rise in the immediate
future on decreased Saudi output
• China has resumed buying U.S. oil
products
• Growth at $55 oil prices
• Denbury's experience and resources
are largest in carbon dioxide space
Headwinds
• Slowing global economic growth
• An increased push towards alternative
energy will cause a long-term decrease
in oil prices
• Denbury's revenue and margins are
tied to the price of oil
• Competition in the Rocky Mountain
region is strong
• Capital expenditure plans tied to $55
oil
• Denbury may be able to sell its carbon
dioxide reserves to companies starting
enhanced recovery projects
6
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