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S | I | G
Denbury Resources Inc.
Sector Head: Conner Elliott
Analyst: Shane Shuma
1
Current Price: $2.35
Target Price: $5.56
Time Horizon:5 years
NYSE: DNR
S | I | GDenbury Company Profile
Company Overview
Sources: Annual Report, Morningstar
• Denbury Resources is an oil and natural gas company with an emphasis
on oil recovery operations using carbon dioxide
• CEO: Christian S. Kendall
• Denbury Resources was founded in 1951 and is headquartered in Plano,
Texas
• As of December 31, 2017 Denbury had 879 employees
• On October 28th, 2018, Denbury announced the purchase of Penn
Virginia Corporation in a $1.7B transaction
• The largest oil and natural gas producer in both Mississippi and Montana
2
Key Ratios
Revenue vs. BOE/dGross Marginvs. Price per Bbl
62%
45%
50%
55%
64%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (Est.)
MarginPercentage
PriceinUSD
Year
Oil Sales Price (per Bbl) Gross Margin %
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
$0
$500,000
$1,000,000
$1,500,000
$2,000,000
$2,500,000
$3,000,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (Est.)
BOE/d
inUSD
Year
BOE/d Revenue
Company DNR OAS CRZO BP
Market Cap $1.06B $2.19B $1.46B $135.08B
EPS (TTM) $0.65 -$0.32 $1.05 $2.58
P/E (TTM) 3.78x 31.04x 15.14x 15.79x
Leverage (TTM) 4.82x 2.12x 4.04x 2.76x
ROA (TTM) 6.05% -1.92% 3.45% 3.05%
EV/EBITDA 8.18x 13.01x 6.00x 5.36x
S | I | GDenbury Product Segments
Oil
Regions of Operation
Natural Gas & Carbon Dioxide
• As of 2017, Denbury has 259,745 barrels of oil equivalent in reserves
• Their two main operating areas are in the Gulf Coast and Rocky Mountains
• Oil sales are made on a day to day basis on short term contracts at the
current market price
• Two purchasers each account for at least 10% of their oil and natural gas
revenues, Plains Marketing LP (22%) and Marathon Petroleum Company
(10%) as of 2017
• For the second half of 2018, 40,500 Bbls/d of oil production is hedged
through derivative contracts
• For 2019, 31,500 Bbls/d will be hedged, with minimal contracts in place for
2020
• As of 2017, Denbury has 42,721 MMcf of natural gas reserves
• Denbury produces 11,329 MMcf per day
• Its production is evenly split between the Gulf Coast region and the Rocky Mountain
region
• The Cedar Creek Anticline accounts for 20% of natural gas production
• Denbury has invested 400 million USD in the region, anticipating a return of 400
million barrels equivalent of natural gas
• Denbury makes a small amount of revenue from carbon dioxide transportation and
sales
• As more companies begin EOR operations this part of their business could grow
3
End Segments
• Marathon Petroleum Company refines
Denbury's oil and uses it in fuel products
• Plains Marketing LP buys Denbury's oil and
sells it to refiners, resellers, or exporters
• Most of Denbury's oil is sold at Louisiana
Light Sweet prices
• High-quality, low-sulfur crude oil is sought
after as it can be directly processed into
kerosene, gasoline, and diesel
• Louisiana Light Sweet oil is in high demand,
especially in industrialized nations
Exchange
$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80
LLS
Brent
WTI
OPEC
Mexican
Price per Bbl in USD
OilClassification
Current Price Yearly Average
S | I | GIndustry Overview
Competition
Sources: Annual Reports 4
• Denbury leads its peers in revenue per barrel of oil equivalent
• Operating margin is lower than peers because of higher lifting costs
• Denbury faces its greatest competition in the Rocky Mountain region and in
east Texas and Louisiana.
• New proposed pipeline from Permian Basin to the Gulf Coast will allow
competitors to export more oil
• Denbury can compete with larger oil companies because of their enhanced
recovery operations
• Denbury operates over 930 miles of carbon dioxide pipelines
• Denbury owns the only significant natural occurring source of carbon dioxide
in the Gulf Coast
Revenue per BOE Enhanced Oil Recovery Regions
Market Drivers
• As oil fields begin to reach maturity the need for enhanced recovery
operations will increase
• China has begun buying U.S. oil products again and potential
relaxing of trade war with China will lessen the predicted slowdown
of economic growth
• Russia and OPEC member countries have cut production
• Less environmental regulation will allow for the expansion of
pipelines and lower costs
• Rising natural gas prices will help boost Denbury's net income
• Operations in the Gulf Coast are susceptible to natural disasters
$0.00 $10.00 $20.00 $30.00 $40.00 $50.00 $60.00 $70.00 $80.00
CPE
CRZO
OAS
PVAC
DNR
BP
Revenue per BOE
TickerSymbol
15,086
33,616
47,378
6,709
8,411
Permian Gulf Coast Eagle Ford Appalachia Mid-Continent
S | I | GValuation – Comp Table
Sources: Yahoo Finance, Morningstar 5
Utilities & Energy - Enhanced Oil Recovery
Valuation Table - P/EMultiples
12/7/2018
Shares
Outstndng
(MM)
Sales Estimates (MM) EPS Estimates P/E Multiples (X)
Oil and Natural Gas Ticker
Price
Current
Price
Target Rating
Fiscal Year
End
Equity Mrkt
Cap (MM)
Annual
Dividend
Dividend
Yield
Potential
Return 2017A 2018E 2017A 2018E 2017A 2018E
Denbury Resources DNR $ 2.21 $ 5.42Buy 12/30/2018 451.59 1,007 $ - 0.00% 145.25% $ 1,130.00 $ 1,460.00 $ 0.14 $ 0.50 16.09x 3.43x
Carrizo Oil and Gas CRZO $ 15.90 $ 32.74Buy 12/30/2018 91.63 1,457 $ - 0.00% 105.91% $ 1,250.00 $ 1,870.00 $ 1.43 $ 3.11 12.90x 15.14x
Oasis Petroleum OAS $ 6.89 $ 14.67Buy 12/30/2018 318.43 2,194 $ - 0.00% 112.92% $ 746.00 $ 1,100.00 $ 0.02 $ 0.41 43.17x 31.0x
Callon Petroleum CPE $ 8.04 $ 16.43 Buy 12/30/2018 227.58 $1,830 $ - 0.00% 104.35% $ 366.00 $ 602.00 $ 0.43 $ 0.87 22.92x 10.7x
Penn Virginia Corporation PVAC $ 59.33 $ 88.00 Buy 12/30/2018 15.07 $849 $ - 0.00% 48.32% $ 160.00 $ 461.00 $ 2.88 $ 10.60 13.57x 69.8x
British Petroleum BP $ 39.51 $ 51.29 Hold 12/30/1028 3325.00 $25,822 $ 2.46 5.9% 29.8% $ 240,210.00 $ 318,710.00 $ 1.86 $ 3.51 22.37x 14.6x
High 25,822.22 $ 2.46 6% 145% $ 240,210.00 $ 318,710.00 $ 2.88 $ 10.60 43x 70x
M ean 5,526.59 $ 0.41 1% 91% $ 40,643.67 $ 54,033.83 $ 1.13 $ 3.17 22x 24x
M edian 1,643.50 $ - 0% 105% $ 938.00 $ 1,280.00 $ 0.93 $ 1.99 19x 15x
Low 849.33 $ - 0% 30% $ 160.00 $ 461.00 $ 0.02 $ 0.41 13x 3x
S | I | GDenbury Resources: Buy
Buy
Tailwinds
• Denbury's new acquisition of Penn
Virginia Corporation will increase
production
• Oil prices should rise in the immediate
future on decreased Saudi output
• China has resumed buying U.S. oil
products
• Growth at $55 oil prices
• Denbury's experience and resources
are largest in carbon dioxide space
Headwinds
• Slowing global economic growth
• An increased push towards alternative
energy will cause a long-term decrease
in oil prices
• Denbury's revenue and margins are
tied to the price of oil
• Competition in the Rocky Mountain
region is strong
• Capital expenditure plans tied to $55
oil
• Denbury may be able to sell its carbon
dioxide reserves to companies starting
enhanced recovery projects
6
DNR RebasedChart
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
inUSD
Date
DNR Rebased S&P Rebased /CL Rebased CRZO Rebased CPE Rebased

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Denbury Resources SIG

  • 1. S | I | G Denbury Resources Inc. Sector Head: Conner Elliott Analyst: Shane Shuma 1 Current Price: $2.35 Target Price: $5.56 Time Horizon:5 years NYSE: DNR
  • 2. S | I | GDenbury Company Profile Company Overview Sources: Annual Report, Morningstar • Denbury Resources is an oil and natural gas company with an emphasis on oil recovery operations using carbon dioxide • CEO: Christian S. Kendall • Denbury Resources was founded in 1951 and is headquartered in Plano, Texas • As of December 31, 2017 Denbury had 879 employees • On October 28th, 2018, Denbury announced the purchase of Penn Virginia Corporation in a $1.7B transaction • The largest oil and natural gas producer in both Mississippi and Montana 2 Key Ratios Revenue vs. BOE/dGross Marginvs. Price per Bbl 62% 45% 50% 55% 64% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (Est.) MarginPercentage PriceinUSD Year Oil Sales Price (per Bbl) Gross Margin % 50,000 55,000 60,000 65,000 70,000 75,000 $0 $500,000 $1,000,000 $1,500,000 $2,000,000 $2,500,000 $3,000,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (Est.) BOE/d inUSD Year BOE/d Revenue Company DNR OAS CRZO BP Market Cap $1.06B $2.19B $1.46B $135.08B EPS (TTM) $0.65 -$0.32 $1.05 $2.58 P/E (TTM) 3.78x 31.04x 15.14x 15.79x Leverage (TTM) 4.82x 2.12x 4.04x 2.76x ROA (TTM) 6.05% -1.92% 3.45% 3.05% EV/EBITDA 8.18x 13.01x 6.00x 5.36x
  • 3. S | I | GDenbury Product Segments Oil Regions of Operation Natural Gas & Carbon Dioxide • As of 2017, Denbury has 259,745 barrels of oil equivalent in reserves • Their two main operating areas are in the Gulf Coast and Rocky Mountains • Oil sales are made on a day to day basis on short term contracts at the current market price • Two purchasers each account for at least 10% of their oil and natural gas revenues, Plains Marketing LP (22%) and Marathon Petroleum Company (10%) as of 2017 • For the second half of 2018, 40,500 Bbls/d of oil production is hedged through derivative contracts • For 2019, 31,500 Bbls/d will be hedged, with minimal contracts in place for 2020 • As of 2017, Denbury has 42,721 MMcf of natural gas reserves • Denbury produces 11,329 MMcf per day • Its production is evenly split between the Gulf Coast region and the Rocky Mountain region • The Cedar Creek Anticline accounts for 20% of natural gas production • Denbury has invested 400 million USD in the region, anticipating a return of 400 million barrels equivalent of natural gas • Denbury makes a small amount of revenue from carbon dioxide transportation and sales • As more companies begin EOR operations this part of their business could grow 3 End Segments • Marathon Petroleum Company refines Denbury's oil and uses it in fuel products • Plains Marketing LP buys Denbury's oil and sells it to refiners, resellers, or exporters • Most of Denbury's oil is sold at Louisiana Light Sweet prices • High-quality, low-sulfur crude oil is sought after as it can be directly processed into kerosene, gasoline, and diesel • Louisiana Light Sweet oil is in high demand, especially in industrialized nations Exchange $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 LLS Brent WTI OPEC Mexican Price per Bbl in USD OilClassification Current Price Yearly Average
  • 4. S | I | GIndustry Overview Competition Sources: Annual Reports 4 • Denbury leads its peers in revenue per barrel of oil equivalent • Operating margin is lower than peers because of higher lifting costs • Denbury faces its greatest competition in the Rocky Mountain region and in east Texas and Louisiana. • New proposed pipeline from Permian Basin to the Gulf Coast will allow competitors to export more oil • Denbury can compete with larger oil companies because of their enhanced recovery operations • Denbury operates over 930 miles of carbon dioxide pipelines • Denbury owns the only significant natural occurring source of carbon dioxide in the Gulf Coast Revenue per BOE Enhanced Oil Recovery Regions Market Drivers • As oil fields begin to reach maturity the need for enhanced recovery operations will increase • China has begun buying U.S. oil products again and potential relaxing of trade war with China will lessen the predicted slowdown of economic growth • Russia and OPEC member countries have cut production • Less environmental regulation will allow for the expansion of pipelines and lower costs • Rising natural gas prices will help boost Denbury's net income • Operations in the Gulf Coast are susceptible to natural disasters $0.00 $10.00 $20.00 $30.00 $40.00 $50.00 $60.00 $70.00 $80.00 CPE CRZO OAS PVAC DNR BP Revenue per BOE TickerSymbol 15,086 33,616 47,378 6,709 8,411 Permian Gulf Coast Eagle Ford Appalachia Mid-Continent
  • 5. S | I | GValuation – Comp Table Sources: Yahoo Finance, Morningstar 5 Utilities & Energy - Enhanced Oil Recovery Valuation Table - P/EMultiples 12/7/2018 Shares Outstndng (MM) Sales Estimates (MM) EPS Estimates P/E Multiples (X) Oil and Natural Gas Ticker Price Current Price Target Rating Fiscal Year End Equity Mrkt Cap (MM) Annual Dividend Dividend Yield Potential Return 2017A 2018E 2017A 2018E 2017A 2018E Denbury Resources DNR $ 2.21 $ 5.42Buy 12/30/2018 451.59 1,007 $ - 0.00% 145.25% $ 1,130.00 $ 1,460.00 $ 0.14 $ 0.50 16.09x 3.43x Carrizo Oil and Gas CRZO $ 15.90 $ 32.74Buy 12/30/2018 91.63 1,457 $ - 0.00% 105.91% $ 1,250.00 $ 1,870.00 $ 1.43 $ 3.11 12.90x 15.14x Oasis Petroleum OAS $ 6.89 $ 14.67Buy 12/30/2018 318.43 2,194 $ - 0.00% 112.92% $ 746.00 $ 1,100.00 $ 0.02 $ 0.41 43.17x 31.0x Callon Petroleum CPE $ 8.04 $ 16.43 Buy 12/30/2018 227.58 $1,830 $ - 0.00% 104.35% $ 366.00 $ 602.00 $ 0.43 $ 0.87 22.92x 10.7x Penn Virginia Corporation PVAC $ 59.33 $ 88.00 Buy 12/30/2018 15.07 $849 $ - 0.00% 48.32% $ 160.00 $ 461.00 $ 2.88 $ 10.60 13.57x 69.8x British Petroleum BP $ 39.51 $ 51.29 Hold 12/30/1028 3325.00 $25,822 $ 2.46 5.9% 29.8% $ 240,210.00 $ 318,710.00 $ 1.86 $ 3.51 22.37x 14.6x High 25,822.22 $ 2.46 6% 145% $ 240,210.00 $ 318,710.00 $ 2.88 $ 10.60 43x 70x M ean 5,526.59 $ 0.41 1% 91% $ 40,643.67 $ 54,033.83 $ 1.13 $ 3.17 22x 24x M edian 1,643.50 $ - 0% 105% $ 938.00 $ 1,280.00 $ 0.93 $ 1.99 19x 15x Low 849.33 $ - 0% 30% $ 160.00 $ 461.00 $ 0.02 $ 0.41 13x 3x
  • 6. S | I | GDenbury Resources: Buy Buy Tailwinds • Denbury's new acquisition of Penn Virginia Corporation will increase production • Oil prices should rise in the immediate future on decreased Saudi output • China has resumed buying U.S. oil products • Growth at $55 oil prices • Denbury's experience and resources are largest in carbon dioxide space Headwinds • Slowing global economic growth • An increased push towards alternative energy will cause a long-term decrease in oil prices • Denbury's revenue and margins are tied to the price of oil • Competition in the Rocky Mountain region is strong • Capital expenditure plans tied to $55 oil • Denbury may be able to sell its carbon dioxide reserves to companies starting enhanced recovery projects 6 DNR RebasedChart $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 inUSD Date DNR Rebased S&P Rebased /CL Rebased CRZO Rebased CPE Rebased