1. For discussion 1
Development and climate change in Ghana
MDBS cross-cutting paper
Development Policy Round Table, Accra, May 2010
Sean Doolan, NL/DFID and William Bonsu, EPA
Background and context
Climate change affects economic output, livelihoods and development
prospects in Ghana now. Changes in climate will largely affect human
development by acting as a “stress-multiplier”, not as a single driver. All
economic sectors and districts are dealing with this, even if they do not
currently recognise the linkages. Poverty reduction, growth and climate
change are interdependent: failing on one, fails on the others.
In Ghana, climate change both poses challenges and affords
opportunities for development, growth and poverty reduction.
Challenges because it risks reversing development gains made by Ghana
since Independence and undermining the country’s future growth and
development path. Opportunities because new international mechanisms of
support are emerging to help deliver on sectoral and national development
objectives in the face of climate change.
Climate change has two main aspects – adapting to its impacts and
mitigating (reducing) emissions of the greenhouse gases that cause
climate change. These have responses in “climate-resilient” and “low
carbon” development. Government needs to demonstrate great leadership,
across sectors, to present a vision of a climate-resilient and low carbon future
for development in Ghana. This also requires carefully coordinated policy and
strategy - to send the right signals across Government for action, to the
international community for support, and to the private sector to discover new
areas of competitiveness and growth.
Climate change demands a longer-term perspective on development and
growth. Small changes in approach may amount over time to quite big shifts.
For example, dealing with the greater risks and uncertainties of climate
impacts may require examination of the extent to which maximising return in
investment for growth is prioritised above risk minimisation. However, it is
important to recognise that enough is known to make initial steps towards
climate-resilient patterns of growth and to pursue a shift towards lower carbon
growth that is in Ghana’s national interests.
This paper seeks to stimulate debate on areas where Ghana is planning
to build on, and safeguard, gains in development and poverty reduction,
in an increasingly hostile physical climate and a carbon-constrained
world. It considers this in the context of development planning and

2. For discussion 2
cooperation. It points to systems that Ghana will need to build to respond,
and to opportunities to avail of international support to tackle these challenges.
Why climate change is cross-cutting
The national sectoral climate change vulnerability and adaptation
assessments published in 2008 showed substantial impact of climate
change on the national economy. There is clear evidence that the coastal
zone, agriculture (including fisheries, cocoa, cereals, and root crop
production), and water resources, as well as human health, poverty and
women’s livelihoods are affected by climate variability and change.
Climate change poses the greatest challenges for the poorest and most
vulnerable groups in Ghana. This includes people living in the drought and
flood-prone northern regions of the country; people living in slums; and people
living in eroding coastal areas. Social, economic and livelihood realities differ
significantly between different social groups, localities and seasons of the
year. Disparities in their capabilities, productive assets, opportunities and
priorities mean that men, women and children, individuals and households all
experience different levels of wellbeing and opportunity in the face of climate
change. This is dynamic. Responses based on income alone miss much
vulnerability – significant for targeting social protection measures.
Migration is an increasingly prevalent response and evident in all zones
across Ghana. Regions with relatively high temperatures and relatively low
rainfall tend to have higher poverty incidences. This correlation is projected to
worsen under the impacts of climate change. Many migrants perceive a
growing climatic vulnerability and ecological fragility as significant factors in
their decision to seek opportunities elsewhere. There is a broad spectrum of
migration, from short-term, through cyclic to long-term and permanent. The
scale of migration is increasing, with more females migrating and doing so at
a younger age than males. This can expose migrants to new vulnerabilities
along their routes. For example, the urban poor have few resources to adapt
– those living in informal settlements on flood plains are extremely vulnerable.
Flooding poses an immediate challenge for achievement of many
sectoral objectives – e.g. on growth, roads and transport, food and
agriculture, education, health, water and sanitation and social protection.
NADMO responds to flooding disasters on different scales every year. The
Southern floods in June/July 2009 affected 51,000 people and caused
damages of USD5.8 million. However, the 2007 Northern floods illustrate the
scale of the potential challenge and how it can reverse development
investments: some 317,000 people were affected, 26,000 homes damaged,
1,000km of feeder roads destroyed, 92,000 ha of farmland affected, 257
million tonnes of food spoiled, 210 schools affected, 45 healthcare facilities
damaged, and 630 drinking water facilities damaged or contaminated. Direct
emergency funding cost some USD25 million. Ghana’s investment in disaster

3. For discussion 3
risk reduction and in early warning systems is still at a preparatory stage,
although these have now been recognised as a high priority by Government.
Climate change has significant health implications. It is likely to increase
the incidence of major components of the disease burden in Ghana. For
example, the three main variables that influence transmission of malaria are
all climate-related - rainfall, temperature and humidity. The costs of malaria
care can consume 30% of the income of poor people - an increase in
transmission levels and incidence will affect both household incomes and the
health budget. Emerging and re-emerging diseases of increasing threat
include buruli ulcer and filariasis. Both are likely to increase due to climatic
pressures and behavioural responses (e.g. to water shortage and
contamination) that will increase exposure to disease vectors.
The MoH is well aware of the importance of integrating climate change
into the health system. Ghana’s initial response in the sector focuses on
identifying, implementing, monitoring, and evaluating adaptations to reduce
current and likely future burdens of malaria, diarrhoeal diseases, and
meningococcal meningitis. These are the priority climate-related health
issues identified by national stakeholders. Action is planned on three fronts:
strengthening technical capacities to manage climate change-related health
risks: mainstreaming climate change health risks into decision-making at local
and national health policy levels; and strengthening the climate change-health
risk knowledge base through managing information and effectively
disseminating it. Other issues on delivery of health services, e.g.
infrastructure vulnerability or the needs of the cold chain for vaccination or
blood transfusion in face of rising temperatures, are not currently resourced.
Climate also has implications for food security. The 2008 Ghana
Demographic and Health Survey indicates that about 28% of Ghanaian
children are stunted, 8% are wasted and 14% are underweight. The Northern,
Upper East, Upper West and Central Regions are the areas with highest
levels of malnutrition, stunting and underweight. About 18% of Ghanaians
who fall below the extreme poverty line are chronically food insecure. About
10% classified as poor, but who fall above the extreme poverty line, are
vulnerable to food insecurity; this group may suffer from transient food
insecurity, due to, for example, seasonal food shortages. International
projections by IFPRI indicate that the impact of climate change on agricultural
production and on food security is likely to have a particular impact on child
malnutrition. This will affect delivery of agricultural, health and social
protection objectives in Ghana.
Ghana’s resilience to the impacts of climate change can be built while
tackling long-term development challenges – in the North-South divide, in
agricultural growth, in energy security, in infrastructure development and in
livelihoods security and social protection. Action is required at sectoral level,
on a geographic level and at all levels of governance, from national to
communities. However, new patterns of development and growth may differ
from existing growth in the sectoral composition and geographical location of
growth, in the extent to which they are integrated across sectors, and in the

4. For discussion 4
opportunities they offer to poor people and to private sector. They may also
require new technologies and sources of finance. Climate resilience and the
role of the private sector in creating new market opportunities is an explicit
part of Ghana’s vision of the “Forested North” and the Northern Savannah
Development Initiative. Other geographic areas, such as the forest zone, will
face different challenges and opportunities, e.g. as Ghana manages
deforestation and the carbon stocks that are embedded in trees and soils.
Climate scenarios and initial climate model projections indicate that
climate change will continue, with projected increases in temperature, shifts
in rainfall, and changes in the timing and intensity of weather events. The
east coast is particularly vulnerable to flooding and shoreline recession. The
most recent work by the World Bank suggests that temperatures will increase
the most in the North, in the order of 2.2 to 2.3°C. This is above the
internationally defined limit of 2°C for dangerous climate change. Projected
variation in streamflow will increase the risk of flood and drought in rural and
urban areas. It also raises issues of transboundary management of regional
water resources, particularly with Burkina Faso.
Projected climatic changes will have a macro-economic impact too.
detailed analysis on specific crops, such as cocoa, a major economic driver
and mainstay of smallholder livelihoods, points to increasing damage due to
pests and diseases, as well as increasingly difficult growing conditions.
Analysis in a study on the Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change in
Ghana suggests an overall trend of decline in real GDP growth between 2006
and 2050, under the influence of persistent temperature increases. The
projected decline in real GDP ranges from minus 5.4% per annum to minus
2.1% per annum by 2050. Real household consumption is also projected to
decline under all the models but with a greater decline in the real consumption
level of rural households. It also projects a decline in the productivity of all
crops over time, with a decline in agricultural GDP projected to be in the range
of 1 to 6.5% per annum by 2050.
Weather uncertainties have had a great impact on the nation’s
agriculture over the years. Ghana’s agriculture is dominated by small scale
producers, accounting for about 80% of domestic production. Average farm
size is about 1.2 hectares, with low crop and animal productivity and low use
of improved technology such as improved seeds. This makes agriculture
uniquely climate-sensitive. However, although it affects all six programme
areas for national action on agriculture, climate change was not taken into
account in analysis of sector growth that underpins Ghana’s association with
the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme. This is not
because MDA staff are unaware of the issue. It is an indication of the manner
in which MDAs need to be equipped with new knowledge and skills to enable
them to address climate change and avail of emerging support opportunities.
This also illustrates the way in which responses to climate change can
help to support Ghana’s sectoral objectives. It is possible that additional
finance and support could be secured to address, e.g. food security,

5. For discussion 5
productivity, agricultural technology, sustainable land management and early
warning systems, all key elements of the agriculture sector plan. The same is
true for other sectors.
The issue
Government of Ghana has stated that it wants each sector of the
economy to be part of a national solution to the challenges of climate
change in development. This recognises that climate change is not an
environmental issue alone; it is about development and aid effectiveness.
The Ministry of Environment, Science and Technology is seeking to integrate
adaptation and mitigation measures into a comprehensive and coherent
cross-sectoral climate policy framework. This is intended to bring together
current climate initiatives with economic and social development plans across
all sectors. This is a trigger under sector budget support on Natural
Resources and Environmental Governance. Many, if not all, development
partners in Ghana also have commitments to mainstream climate change into
all aspects of development cooperation. However, these commitments have
yet to materialise in a wide and substantive debate across MDAs, in high-level
policy dialogue or in the design of most major development programmes.
Ghana also wishes to be to be part of an international solution at the
global level. It plays an active role in international negotiations on climate
change at both political and technical levels. Ghana is respected in the
African Group and G77+China, as well as by developed countries. It has
major engagement on a variety of issues such as technology transfer,
adaptation, and climate finance and is active on REDD (reduced emissions
from deforestation and degradation). Ghana is on the Adaptation Finance
Board, setting rules for how such finance will be accessed in future. The
Fund is now operational and MoFEP and other stakeholders need to establish
the national institutional mechanism to address fiduciary risks at scale. The
same applies for responding to other climate finance instruments.
There is emerging commitment at senior political levels for tackling
climate change. However, the positive and negative implications of climate
change for growth and development are, however, yet to be fully appreciated
by many MDAs. The national response is not yet sufficiently cross-sectoral or
large scale. Government could make use of opportunities to further develop
the political engagement, systems, capacity to integrate climate change into
policy, budgeting and implementation at national, sub-national and sectoral
levels. This approach has been endorsed by the Presidency, MEST and
MoFEP. There is also a growing appetite for action on climate change among
non-state actors, including civil society, Parliamentarians and private sector.
A challenge for Government will be to look beyond current planning
cycles to how the economy can function in the future. Rather than
planning to be fit-for-purpose now, Ghana also needs to consider how to be
fit-for-future-purpose. What are the risks to current patterns of investment?

6. For discussion 6
How can these be safeguarded? How can some sectors and areas be made
more resilient to climate pressures? How can Ghane respond for specific
strategies, sectors and areas that are particularly affected by such changing
pressures? Ghana’s per capita greenhouse gas emissions are lower than
other countries’. However, when land use change is taken into account, it is
already close to the 2 tonnes of CO2e per capita global average required by
2050 to prevent dangerous climate change. Investment decisions made now,
as Ghana transforms its economy with the advent of oil, may lock-in future
high emissions. Higher economic growth and emissions now may require
trade-offs across sectors, particularly in terms of the impacts on the poor and
on longer-run growth prospects.
However, Ghana also has opportunities to harness international support
to help shift towards a lower carbon economy by slowing the rate of
growth in its greenhouse gas emissions. Historically economic growth has
been closely correlated with rising emissions, e.g. from energy, transport and
deforestation. However, in an increasingly carbon-constrained global
economy, ‘high carbon’ economies could also reduce their competitiveness.
Ghana’s historical greenhouse gas emissions have been relatively small.
However, they will grow rapidly as the economy is transformed by oil and if
remaining forest stocks continue to be depleted. Concerns that limiting
emissions growth will slow economic growth may be over-stated. Ghana has
opportunities to tackle a great deal of emissions at low or even negative cost,
and help it meet other development objectives. The most cost effective of
these are likely to include reducing deforestation, increasing energy efficiency,
and increasing innovation and entrepreneurial activity on low carbon and
resilient goods and services. If realised, these measures would allow the
country to accomplish a substantial amount of mitigation while boosting
national competitiveness and growth.
For discussion
Ghana can position itself to avail of international support and initiatives
on climate change. Many instruments now exist. Ghana has good elements
on climate change, on development, and on planning overall. However, with
systematic climate responses in preparation in a range of countries, there is a
risk that Ghana will not be as well positioned to avail of such international
resource opportunities, both financial and technical. A fragmented approach
with vertical funds and projectised initiatives risks overloading country
capacity without strengthening country systems overall.
The Copenhagen Accord includes provision of immediate short term
Fast Start funding for developing countries of up to $30bn over three
years (2010-12). It makes a commitment to work to provide long term
financing of $100bn a year by 2020. The Fast Start Commitments represent
a very significant scaling up of current financing for climate change action.

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Ghana is potentially eligible to access some of the Fast Start Finance.
Articulating a national, cross-sectoral approach on climate change, that
demonstrates vision and absorptive capacity, will be key in months to come.
As Ghana formulates its Medium-Term National Development Plan and
sectoral development plans, it has an opportunity to set out its climate
response. This could enable both a) a shift in approach to address risks to
development objectives and b) harnessing of international support on a
substantial scale. Omission of a light-touch climate perspective within the
medium-term plans would be a missed opportunity.
Strategies to address climate change will be of greatest value as part of
Ghana’s wider national planning process. Country experiences to date
show greatest response with strategies that are fully integrated into the
planning and implementation processes of governments across all sectors,
and tailored to the country context. Funding that is fully integrated into public
financial management systems, e.g. budgetary allocation and expenditure
frameworks builds potential for responses on a large scale. Integration into
the 2011 budget guidelines would establish a platform for action in Ghana.
Early action will be most cost effective and help garner greatest support.
The scale of response over time is large. It requires large-scale financial and
technical support, but also large-scale policy implementation. A
comprehensive and coherent country strategy that offers reliable monitoring of
results at national and sectoral levels, and of financing from all sources, is key.
Measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) is central to efficiency in
national allocation of resources, to effectiveness of responses, and to
negotiations on climate finance. Under the UN Framework Convention on
Climate Change and the Copenhagen Accord, Ghana will report on its climate
responses - and those supported by partners - every two years. It will be a
systemic challenge to develop a national registry system that tracks mitigation
and adaptation actions and support received in terms of finance, technology
and capacity building, as weIl as engagement of the private sector and use of
the carbon market.
Delivery on the climate in development agenda will require strong
government leadership at senior levels, wide country stakeholder
engagement and development partner coordination. Applying the
principles of country leadership and aid effectiveness to climate change and
short-term Fast Start finance will deliver the largest scale results against
national development objectives. This is in line with the principles of Ghana’s
Aid Policy, including the desire to coordinate, manage for results, strengthen
mutual accountability, and reduce transaction costs, with flexible instruments
that operate through the budget, to the extent possible. Ultimately, Ghana’s
capacity to address climate change and make the most of any opportunities it
offers is dependent on the skills and energy of a broad cross-section of
Government, the private sector and civil society, with the support of its
development partners.