Sara WUNSCH-Dissertation

HOW FORCE MAJEURE AND RELATED PUBLICITY ADVERSELY EFFECTS TOURISTS’ PERCEPTION OF A DESTINATION
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Sara WUNSCH : 12434261
CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF HOW FORCE MAJEURE AND RELATED
PUBLICITY ADVERSELY EFFECTS TOURISTS’ PERCEPTION OF A
DESTINATION
Sara WUNSCH
12434261
MSc Hospitality and Tourism Service Management
Total word count: 14,652 words

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Table of Contents
LIST OF TABLES....................................................................................................... 4
INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................ 5
CHAPTER 1: LITERATURE REVIEW ........................................................................... 10
1.1 Force majeure: disaster for the tourism industry ....................................... 10
1.1.1 Natural disasters ................................................................................. 14
1.1.2 Terrorism............................................................................................. 17
1.1.3 Political instability and War.................................................................. 19
1.2 Destination image and tourists perception................................................. 21
1.3 Media and communication channels ......................................................... 24
CHAPTER 2: METHOD AND METHODOLOGY .......................................................... 26
2.1 Method ...................................................................................................... 26
2.2 Methodology.............................................................................................. 29
2.2.1 Qualitative approach ........................................................................... 29
2.2.2 Quantitative approach ......................................................................... 32
CHAPTER 3: FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS...................................................................... 36
3.1 Sample composition analysis and interpretation ....................................... 36
3.2 Travellers’ type analysis ............................................................................ 38
3.3 Risk perception analysis............................................................................ 39
3.4 Which force majeure is mostly feared: possible correlations seeking........ 44
3.5 Knowledge acquisition: key element for image and perception creation ... 46

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3.6 Perception and reliability of the information sources ................................. 47
3.7 Approaching the media channels and information acquisition in the
perspective of asking tourist their judgement on media’s reliability. ................ 52
3.7 The power of media: reproduction of Milgram’s experiment...................... 54
3.8 SWOT analysis of media........................................................................... 55
3.9 Adaptation of Gunn’s model (1988)........................................................... 57
3.10 Willingness to return at the destination after a disaster ........................... 61
CONCLUSION ........................................................................................................ 66
Appendix 1.......................................................................................................... 69
Appendix 2.......................................................................................................... 76
Appendix 3.......................................................................................................... 78
Appendix 4.......................................................................................................... 88
Appendix 5........................................................................................................ 100
REFERENCES ................................................................................................. 102

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LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Cast of features of force majeure.......................................................... 12
Table 2: Sample composition ............................................................................. 36
Table 3: Travellers' type...................................................................................... 38
Table 4: Cross-table analysis of risk and gender factors .................................... 40
Table 5: Cross-table analysis of risk and age range factors ............................... 41
Table 6: Analysis of the fear factor ..................................................................... 44
Table 7: Factor analysis and underlying clusters, KMO measure of sampling
Adequacy and Bartlett's test of sphericity ........................................................... 48
Table 8: Factor analysis and underlying clusters................................................ 50
Table 9: Swot analysis of media channels.......................................................... 56

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INTRODUCTION
Over the last decades, tourism has become one of the world’s largest industries.
It has grown faster than many other notable industries such as manufacturing,
financial services, communication and retail. According to the World Travel &
Tourism Council’s (WTTC) economic research in 2012, the tourism industry has
grown its total contribution to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 3% which
represent a rise of US$500 billion year-on-year and has increased its number of
jobs by five million. WTTC predicts that the travel and tourism industry will
expand its total contribution to GDP by 3.2%, faster than the 2.4% predicted for
global economic growth. The industry is expected to support over 266 million jobs
this year and also to support many other industries.
Therefore, because of its role in the development of national economies,
international trade, and employment, the tourism industry has to be given a high
importance. However, the tourism system is an open system which is subject to
many influences and pressures that arise outside the system itself (Ritchie and
Crouch, 2010). The tourism industry is prone to a vast array of phenomena which
can broadly impact all its sector of activity and which could jeopardise its survival.
A single event in one part of the world today can produce a set of consequences
for current and future tourism flows. Those types of events are identified in this
paper as force majeure and include a range of examples for possible disasters.
The term force majeure is used by all contractors in the tourism industry and is
the most dreaded event. According to the law, force majeure is defined as

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unusual and unforeseeable circumstances beyond the control of the party by
whom it is pleaded, the consequences of which could not have been avoided
even if all due care had been exercised (Grant et al. in Wilks, Pendergast and
Leggat, 2006). Carter (1991) defines a disaster as an event, natural or manmade,
sudden or progressive, which impacts with such severity that the affected
community has to respond by taking exceptional measure. The guarantee of
tourists’ personal safety is perhaps the most important prerequisite for any
aspiring tourism destination (Mansfield and Piam, 2005; cited in Novelli, Morgan
and Nibigira, 2012.)
It seems that our environment has become increasingly turbulent and crisis prone
over time, Richardson (1994) has suggested this might be not only because we
have become a more crowded world, but also because we have more powerful
technology now that has the capacity to generate disasters. Acts of terrorism,
crime, natural disasters and epidemic outbreaks all negatively affect destination
image and pose major challenges to the tourism industry, especially as global
media reinforce such security fears (Aston, 1999; cited in Novelli, Morgan and
Nibigira, 2012.)
The negative impact of such events is adversely tenfold by the intervention of
media and the related publicity they broadcast. Force majeure can alter the
country's attractiveness to tourists and therefore the destination image. Every
destination has an image. Hunt (1975) defines the destination image as the
"Perceptions held by potential visitors about an area”, Phelps (1986) believes that
the destination’s image relates simply to the "perceptions or impressions of a

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place". Many definitions have been given to destination image, though they
practically all relate to the sense of perception.
The role of the media in disaster management strategies can be crucial to such
extent that it might make the difference between whether or not a difficult
situation evolves into a disaster (Fink, 1986; Koewn-McMullan, 1997). Media
outlets can help by disseminating warnings leading up to impending disasters and
providing information during the recovery stage. However, media intensive
coverage of disaster and false information diffusion can increase the extent of
damage and threaten the whole destination.
One of the reasons so little progress has been made in the advancement of our
understanding of tourism disaster and what measures to take, is the limited
development of the theoretical and conceptual framework required to strengthen
the analysis of this phenomena (Faulkner, 2003). Consequently the purpose of
the current study is to document, analyse and fulfil this gap in order to establish a
framework in destination image control after force majeure.
This study aims at first to critically analyse how force majeure impacts tourists’
perception of a destination, including the notion of destination image. The first
chapter introduces the fundamental notions necessary for the global
understanding of the subject. Therefore the literature review chapter sets the
context of the current study by giving an adapted definition of force majeure
applied to the tourism field based on previous literature and analysis. It also
introduces the importance of destination image and its creation process.
Destination image is made out individuals’ perception. Indeed, this study aims to
identify the main influential factors of tourists’ perception. The hypothesis

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researched is that media is the predominant factor of influence in tourists’
perception of a destination, and that they play a crucial role in destination image
recovery process. It also tends to provides further empirical evidence to support
that destination image, measured at one point, tend to differ after the occurrence
of major incidents in the destination.
In order to answer the research questions and validate the hypothesis the method
employed has been inspired by previous research conducted by Gunn (1988) on
destination image formation and by Milgram (1974) regarding the power of
authority. Chapter two exposes the method as well the methodology of research.
The conducted study has been approach with a mix-methodology combining
qualitative and quantitative researches. Therefore, semi-structured interviews
have been conducted to obtain insights and understanding of tourists’ behaviour.
Additionally, a survey has been implemented to collect numerical data in the
objective of making general observations over a large sample of respondents in
order to have accurate valid answers. At last, the findings and analysis chapter
exposes the results of the conducted research and through their interpretation
suggestions are made to improve the destination recovery process and
alternative solutions are proposed to channel the impact of such events on the
destination image.
The global environment of a destination, referred in economy as the macro
environment, is in a constant state of change and evolution. Force majeure can
shift the pattern of wealth to create special concerns, problems, or issues that
countries must adapt to and overcome. Hence why, destination managers need
to regularly monitor the environment to see and understand the “big picture” in

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order to anticipate the changes that could alter the tourism landscape (Ritchie
and Crouch, 2010).
The anticipated outcome is to identify the influencing factors of tourists’
perception by validating the hypothesis that media plays a pivotal role in image
and perception of the destination and is one of the determining element of the
decision making process.

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CHAPTER 1: LITERATURE REVIEW
1.1 Force majeure: disaster for the tourism industry
The term force majeure is the most feared in the tourism industry. With regards to
the law, force majeure can be seen as an unexpected condition out of the party’s
control; the repercussions of which could not have been dodged even if all due
care had been exercised (Grant et al. in Wilks, Pendergast and Leggat, 2006).
Force majeure events are more commonly referred to as disasters. Carter (1991)
defines a disaster as an event, natural or manmade, sudden or progressive,
which impacts with such severity that the affected communities have to respond
by taking exceptional measures.
In the tourism field, force majeure can shift the pattern of wealth to create special
concerns that countries must adapt to and overcome. For most destinations in the
world, tourism represents a major source of income and employment. Any crisis
or disasters would have dramatic consequences on all fields related to the
tourism activity. Similar to Carter’s definition, Seymour and Moore (2000) have
suggested a classification for crisis into two types: the “cobra” type, which strikes
suddenly and the “python” type which occurs gradually. As well, Karagiannis et al.
(2006) have suggested an alternative aspect to classify the crisis that affect the
tourism industry using the factor of human involvement as direct, indirect, or no
human involvement. Sausmarez (2007) gave another approach by suggesting
those crises are either natural such as hurricanes and earthquakes, or manmade
in the case of industrial accidents, plane crashes or terrorist events. The most

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interesting definition is given by Parsons (1996), who suggested a classification
of tourism crisis in three types depending on their gestation period.
 “Immediate crisis: where little or no warning exists therefore organisations
are unable to research the problem or prepare a plan before the crisis hits,
 Emerging crisis: these are slower in developing and maybe able to be
stopped or limited by organisational action,
 Sustained crisis: that may last for weeks, months or even years” (Parsons,
1996)
Maditinos and Vassiliadis (2008), in their study on “crisis and disasters in tourism
industry: happen locally – affect globally”, have combined these different
approaches for tourism crisis classification with the major risk factors described
by Lepp and Gibson (2003) in order to categorise disaster and therefore analyse
their impact. In their literature review, Leep and Gibson (2003) have pointed out
four major risk factors: terrorism, war and political instability, health concerns and
crime.
However, along with the existing definitions and classifications Maditinos and
Vassiliadis (2008) have refined the categories and have put forward an
interesting summary table. The following table allows a clear identification of force
majeure events and therefore sets up the limitations of the current study.

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Table 1: Cast of features of force majeure
Type of crisis Cobra - Python Gestation period Human involvement Man-made or natural
Natural Disasters Cobra Immediate
No involvement and/or
Indirect
Natural and/or man made
Terrorism Cobra Immediate Direct Man made
Political instability
and war
Python Sustained Direct Man made
Epidemics –
diseases
Python Emerging No involvement Natural
Maditinos and Vassiliadis (2008)
Crises and Disasters in Tourism Industry: Happen locally - Affect globally
Table 1: Cast of features of “happen locally – affect globally” tourism crises
This table clearly allows the understanding of the nature of force majeure. With
regards to the several definitions presented above, it therefore possible to identify
force majeure as being unavoidable and unpredictable events which strike
suddenly and generate immediate crisis, those can be either natural or manmade
events beyond control. This final definition sets the context and limitations of the
current study. The two categories displayed in table one, natural disasters and
terrorism, can be considered as force majeure through their own criteria. Despite
the fact that political instabilities and war occur gradually and can last for weeks,
the unexpected and unavoidable factor can still be discussed. However, one of
the limitations in this this study is regarding to the consequences of epidemics
and health related situation. These types of situations are not considered in this
paper as being a force majeure as diseases, epidemics and health troubles are
rarely sudden and further consequences have to be considered.

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Destination managers need to regularly monitor the environment to understand
and forecast solutions to anticipate the changes that could alter the tourism
landscape (Ritchie and Crouch, 2010). The purpose of this paper is to propose
alternative solutions in order to manage the changes and the consequences due
to a force majeure situation. From a tourism perspective, crisis may include
deteriorating physical conditions of the destination (Beirman, 2002). However,
with greater impact images of the destination tend to be negatively affected
following such major crisis like terrorist attacks, assaults on tourists and natural
disasters (Beirman, 2002; Avraham, 2004).

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1.1.1 Natural disasters
Several authors have emphasised the vulnerability of tourist destinations.
Tourism is often described as a fragile industry. Indeed, for many countries the
tourism sector is an important contributor to the economy especially in less
economically developed countries which local economy relies upon the tourism
industry. As previously explained, natural disasters is one of the most
unforeseeable forces affecting tourism. They can have a dramatic impact on
tourism as they usually destroy the natural environment and the infrastructures.
Additionally, natural disasters increase in tourists’ concerns about security and
safety.
Murphy and Bayley (1989) suggest that the exposure of tourism to natural
disasters is linked with the attractiveness of many high-risk exotic locations,
where events such as hurricanes or tropical storm, avalanches or ice storm and
volcanic activity are common. Indeed, hurricanes and tropical storms are among
the most powerful natural disasters because of their size and destructive
potential. Tornadoes are relatively brief but violent. Both earthquakes and
tornadoes strike suddenly without warning. Flooding, however, is the most
common of natural hazards and wildfires are more prevalent in the event of a
drought.
The December 2004 tsunami catastrophe in Indonesia is an indicative example
for the consequences of force majeure on the destination image. The influence of
the tsunami reaches beyond the borders of the area affected. One of the impacts
of the tsunami catastrophe for the tourism industry is that many tourists tended to
perceive the whole Southeast and South Asia as a risky destination, therefore the

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tsunami has caused a redistribution of outbound tourists and stimulated a rapid
increase in some other outbound and domestic destinations, this implies the
arrivals in the affected areas severely decreased (Zhang, 2005, WTO, 2005). In
the case of Indonesia tsunami, the toll was heavy, over 7,000 tourists are said to
have died from the disaster, and nearly 500 are missing (De Vries, 2011). Those
unfortunate events were accompanied with a drastic drop of the tourist
frequentation of the whole geographical zone. However, ten years after the
disaster, Indonesia has returned to the status of paradisiac destination and
tourists don’t seem to be reluctant anymore to travel to this destination.
Therefore, what is the acceptable time for destination recovery in tourists’ mind?
Disasters can take many different forms, and the duration can range from an
hourly disruption to days or weeks of ongoing destruction. One interesting case is
Mt. eyjafjallajokull eruption in Iceland. This incident wasn’t outstanding because
of its casualties, but because it wreaked havoc on Europe’s air transport system.
This sudden event also threatened to turn off the number of foreign tourists
expected to visit Iceland in 2010. In fact, after a twenty percent drop in visitor
numbers in April and May compared to the previous year, tourism stakeholders
were alarmed. In response to the critical situation, Iceland’s tourism actors and
stakeholders got together and pooled their efforts in a joint marketing campaign
named Inspired by Iceland (De Vries, 2011). The successful management of the
disaster and its consequences minimises the negative effects on tourists’ beliefs
regarding the affected area. Nevertheless, the unsuccessful management
enforces the negative perception of the area hit by the disasters from a safety
and security point of view.

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Surprisingly, natural disasters appear to have become more frequent in recent
years. Richardson (1994) has suggested this might not be only because we have
become a more crowded world, but it might be due to the fact that we now have
more powerful technology that has the capacity to generate disasters. Besides,
Burton et al. (1978, in Faulkner, 2003), explained the role of technology in
exposing humankind to natural disasters is linked to the fact that humans are
putting considerable efforts into controlling the natural world. Their conclusion is
that the global the global toll of natural disaster rises at least as fast as the
increase in population and material wealth, and probably faster.
However on another point of view it might be that over the years the number of
tourist destination has increased exponentially. Some of the destinations that
emerged with the growth of the tourism industry were built on areas that were
susceptible to be hit by natural events. Therefore, it might be considered that the
fact that we are a more crowded world has led to be more exposed to risk of
disasters.

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1.1.2 Terrorism
Sonmez (1998) explained that “it can be inferred that crisis situations which
threaten tourist activity, often begin with short-lived disasters, whether natural or
human-caused. Thus, a single terrorist incident initially viewed as a disaster can
create a crisis situation if that destination’s image of safety is significantly
damaged. The destination must not only manage the crisis but also initiate
marketing efforts to recover lost tourism by rebuilding the positive image of a
destination”. Tourists often are the specific targets of terrorist organisations.
Regardless of the number of occurrence, terrorism continues to capture world
attention for the last two decades and continues to exacerbate public perception
of danger in general and in particular at some destinations. Since the beginning
of the millennium several terrorist attacks occurred; in 2011 New York City and
Washington D.C on September 11th, followed by Bali bombings in October 12th
2002, frequent armed unrest in Thailand since January 2004, London terrorist
attacks in July 2005, hotel bombing in Sharm-el-Sheik and Egypt revolution since
January 2005 (Maditinos and Vassiliadis, 2008) .…
Following the 25th January revolution in Egypt, the Egyptian stock market
dropped 10% (Werr, 2011) and has widely affected the tourism industry of the
country. According to the Egyptian Tourist Authority (ETA), tourism represents
11% of the gross domestic product, combining direct and indirect employment, as
there are 2.5 million people working in the tourism industry. After the events, the
figures returned to the level they were before the liberalisation of the Egyptian
economy in 2004 (Amara, El Samadicy, Ragheb, 2011).

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The case of Egypt shows the sensitive relationship between the occurrence of
terrorist acts and the political stability of a country.

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1.1.3 Political instability and War
Political instability describes a situation "in which conditions and mechanisms of
governance and rule are challenged as to their political legitimacy by elements
operating from outside of the normal operations of the political system" (Hall and
O'Sullivan, 1996). At first sight, political instability and terrorism may not seem
related. However, after closer examination, certain situation demonstrates
otherwise such as the previous example of Egypt. Terrorism can be the
manifestation of a political crisis (Sonmez and Graefe, 1998).
In fact, terrorism has been identified by Hall and O’Sullivan (1996) as being a
dimension of political instability along with international and civil war, riots, social
unrest and strikes. The political environment very often impacts on the
sociocultural environment. Using the concrete example of Thailand, in 2008 the
country was perceived as a politically unstable destination largely shaped by
several incidents such as, the closure of Suvarnabhumi Airport in 2008, political
riots in 2010, followed by social unrests all over the country.
However, Thailand has made considerable efforts in promoting its tourism
industry and its attempts have been very successful as Thailand is now known as
one of the top tourist destinations for both leisure and business tourism (Thailand
Convention and Exhibition Bureau or TCEB, 2010 in Jarumaneerat and
Promsivapallop, 2012). Based on Maditinos and Vassiliadis (2008) table, political
instability didn’t seem to be classified as force majeure in a first place. However,
Faulkner (2003; p265) made an interesting point which softens the basic
definition of force majeure by saying “natural and human induced disasters alike
are neither absolutely predictable nor avoidable. Furthermore, while disasters are

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relatively of rare occurrence and are to some extend random, it is also true that
no destination is immune from such events.” Therefore political instabilities can
be considered as force majeure in the event of unexpected changes in the
political landscape and unforeseeable consequences. Comparable to terrorism,
political instability and war can increase the perception of risk at the destination.
Risk is an inherent component of travellers’ product and destination choice.
Individuals have different perceptions of possible destination choices, and tend to
be risk-averse or risk-taking to different degrees (Amara, El Samadicy, and
Ragheb, 2011). Destinations differ in many respects; their location, historical
experience, to political instability, ethnic conflicts and crime. Given these
differences, the analysis of destination risk perception and components is of
substantial interest. Similarly, Leep and Gibson (2008. cited in Korstanje, M.E.)
argue that travel seems to be circumscribed to two contrasting tendencies, the
sensation of novelty seeking and risk aversion. Even if risks are important
elements to determine the security of visitors, it is perception that pays the most
pervasive role in the psychological construction of danger.

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1.2 Destination image and tourists perception
In the tourism industry every destination has to face significant marketing
challenges. In order to remain competitive and successful each destination must
be differentiated from the other. The differentiation appears with an effective
positioning strategy, a clear identification of the targeted markets and appropriate
promotion tools. The key component of the positioning process is the creation
and the management of a distinctive and appealing perception or image of the
destination (Calantone, Di Benetto, Hakam & Bojanic, 1989). Several studies
have illustrated that destination image influences tourists’ behaviour (Hunt, 1975;
Pearce, 1982). Those studies have shown that a negative image is thought to be
an obstacle for the future evolution and prosperity of a destination as tourists may
be reluctant to visit or return to a destination with such an image. Indeed, in order
to be chosen or considered in the travel decision process, destinations must
present a strong and positive image (Goodrich, 1978; Woodside & Lysonski,
1989).
Reynolds (1965) describes the creation of image as the development of a mental
construct based upon a few impressions chosen from a flood of information.
Several other definitions of destination image can be found. Most of them refer to
the sense of perception. Calantone, et al. (1989) determine the destination image
as the "Perceptions of potential tourist destination", Richardson & Crompton
(1988) as the "Perceptions of vacation attributes" and Gartner & Hunt (1987) as
the "Impressions that a person holds about a state in which they do not reside".
In the case of Reynolds’ (1965) definition of destination image, the flood of
information has many potential sources. It includes: promotional literature, travel

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brochures, opinions of others such as family, friends and travel agents, general
media like television, newspapers, magazines, books, and movies. Nowadays
those sources can be extended to internet and all specific websites which provide
tourists with information. Furthermore, the image a tourist creates of a
destination will be primarily affected and modified based on direct information and
experience, i.e., by visiting the destination itself (Echtner and J.R. Brent, 2003).
The influence of these various sources of information and their role in destination
image formation have been put into context by Gunn (1988) in his model of the
seven phases of the travel experience:
1. Accumulation of mental images about vacation experiences
2. Modification of those images by further information
3. Decision to take a vacation trip
4. Travel to the destination
5. Participation at the destination
6. Return home
7. Modification of images based on the vacation experience.
Using this model, four states of destination image formation can be identified:
phases 1, 2, 5 and 7. In phases 1 and 2, destination images are formed based on
secondary sources of information, whereas in phase 5 and 7, actual first-hand
experience is used to modify the destination's image. The process of destination
image formation highlights the importance of individuals that can develop an
image of a destination without having necessarily visited or having been exposed

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to commercial types of information relating to the fore-mentioned destination.
(Echtner and Richie, 2003).
This paper aims to identify what would happen for the tourist perception in case
of a force majeure event. In order to answer this question it is imperative to
consider one of the widely cited definitions by Gartner (1996) who defined
destination image to be made up of three distinctively different but hierarchical
interrelated components: cognitive, affective and conative. Qu, Hyunjung Kim,
and Hyunjung Im (2010), in their book entitled a model of destination branding:
integrating the concepts of the branding and destination image explains the three
components as follow. “The cognitive component is conceptualized as the sum of
beliefs and attributes of the destination, while the affective component is related
to the feeling and values an individual places on destination based on travel
benefits or motives for which they seek (Balogulu and McCleary, 1999). Lastly,
conative component is referred to the action and decision an individual makes
such as whether or not to travel to a particular destination (Gartner, 1996)” (Qu,
Hyunjung Kim, and Hyunjung Im, 2010, 6).
Since destination image or a mental picture of the destination can exercise great
influence on consumer decision-making process in many ways, destination image
is regarded as one of the important factors in ensuring the long term viability of
any tourist destination (Beerli and Martin, 2004). Therefore, this study aims to
identify and analyse the in depth factors which influence the perception.

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1.3 Media and communication channels
The media has a very important relationship with the tourism industry as they
have significant influence on the image of potential tourist destinations and
therefore affecting potential tourists’ destination choice (Amara, El-Samadicy and
Ragheb, 2011). This suggests that travel-related information plays crucial role in
the imaginary of travellers when a territory remains unfamiliar (Smith et al. 2009
in Korstanje, 2011). As in any other industry, Internet, and especially Web 2.0,
has changed significantly the way individuals plan and consume travel (Buhalis
and Law, 2008). The internet has given a virtual environment and created a
platform for a multitude of activities, social networking being the most pervasive
so far. Indeed, the apparition and the quick expansion of social media have
influenced several components of tourists’ behaviour such as awareness,
information acquisition, opinions, but also purchase behaviour and post-purchase
communications and evaluation (Mangold and Faulds, 2009 in Amara, El-
Samadicy and Ragheb, 2011).
Therefore, many transport, hospitality and tourist-related businesses use internet
and social media as a promotion tool. Moreover, either word of mouth
recommendations or online travel reviews are valid instruments to reduce
travellers’ angst (Korstanje, 2011). Additionally, the role of media in disaster
management strategies can be crucial to such extent that it might make the
difference between whether or not a difficult situation evolves into a disaster
(Fink, 1986; Koewn-McMullan, 1997). Furthermore, Ritchie (2004) calls for the
contribution of different research disciplines to address how a destination can
recover from crisis, and mentions the discipline of communication and information

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systems management as one of those (Mistilis and Sheldon, 2006). In other
words, all media channels can be used as a tool to disseminate warnings in the
impending disasters and provide information during the recovery stage. However,
continuous media coverage of dramatic events, such as natural disasters, acts of
terrorism, political unrest or wars can discourage tourists to travel to specific
destinations or even entire regions. (Sonmez, Apostolopoulos and Tarlow, 1999).
In this global capacity, media can significantly influence international tourism
flows towards a country hit a disaster. Decisions made by tourists can be altered
depending on the attitude and commands of tour operators, information obtained
on internet, news on television, and word of mouth. The general public relies
widely on media to display an understanding of terrorists’ motives, the implication
of aggressive actions, and the essential details of any critical situation the
destination may be facing, which as a result may affect tourists’ destination for
their future holiday. Therefore, this study aims to identify the power of each factor
influencing the decision-making process and show that risk perception is affected
by media and marketing communication messages.
The information media broadcast can be either positive or negative, moreover
they represent threats or opportunities for the destination’s recovery. As Faulkner
(1999) explained, through the development of a disaster management strategy,
many potential impacts can either be totally avoided, or at least their
consequences can be minimised. Hence why, the purpose of this analysis is also
to reveal the need of developing innovative approaches to risk management and
suggesting alternative solutions in order to reduce destination recovery time.

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CHAPTER 2: METHOD AND METHODOLOGY
The existing literature provides fundamental information in order to analyse force
majeure and define the current context of the study. The classifications of
Parsons (1996), Leep and Gibson (2003), Maditinos and Vassiliadis (2008),
Seymour and Moore (2000), Karagiannis et al. (2006) and Sausmarez (2007),
allows to establish clearly the situation considered as force majeure and
determine the limits of this study. There is a lack of analysis and study on the
impact of force majeure as they represent the trickiest scenario destination
managers hypothetically have to deal with. In this context, this paper aims to
propose alternative tools and solutions for the recovery of destinations hit by such
crisis as a force majeure. Once the context set, it is then essential to comprehend
the tourist perception and how destination image is built itself.
2.1 Method
This study aims to identify the main influential factors of tourists’ perception. The
hypothesis researched is that media is the predominant factor of influence in
tourists’ perception of a destination, and that they play a crucial role in destination
image recovery process. It also tends to provides further empirical evidence to
support that destination image, measured at one point, tend to differ after the
occurrence of major incidents in the destination.

27
In order to answer the research questions and validate the hypothesis the method
employed has been inspired by previous research conducted by Gunn (1988) on
destination image formation; previously detailed in the literature chapter; and by
the far-famed experiment of Milgram (1974) regarding the influential power of the
media.
In order to highlight the influencing power of the media this study based its
research on an existing experience. The Milgram experiment is a psychological
experiment conducted between 1960 and 1963 by the American psychologist
Stanley Milgram. This experiment sought to assess the level of an individual’s
obedience to an authority he considers legitimate and analyse the submission
process to the authority, especially when it leads to actions which pose ethical
concerns. The real purpose of the experiment is to measure the level of
obedience even if the order stands against the ethical values of who executes it
(Milgram, 1974).
Several reproductions of this experiment have been done around the world and
have confirmed Milgram’s findings. In 2009, France Télévisions produced a
documentary “Death’s Game” featuring a fake game show (The Xtreme Zone)
reproducing Milgram's experiment. The notable difference is that the scientific
authority represented by the technician in a grey blouse in the initial experiment
was replaced by a television host.
The results of the experience showed an 81% obedience rate. The Milgram’s
experiment and all its reproductions have shown how an authority, such as the
media, can own power on individuals’ perception.

28
Therefore this study has identified the media as being the most pervasive
influencing factor. Moreover, Milgram’s experiment is bringing essential
information for the interpretation on the survey’s results detailed in the findings’
chapter.

29
2.2 Methodology
This paper also intends to answer several questions in order to develop a
framework illustrating how force majeure and related publicity adversely affect
tourists’ perception of a destination. By understanding the operation of tourists’
perception as well as its main influencing factors, it will allow to express
alternative solutions in order to reduce the recovery time of a destination. The
current research uses a mixed method approach, combining qualitative and
quantitative analyses. The choice of methodology has been made with regards to
the intangible aspect of perception and the necessity of a numerical
representation to support the hypothesis that there are behavioural similarities
related to the perception tourists holds about a destination.
2.2.1 Qualitative approach
In-depth scrutiny of the tourist perception has been conducted with a qualitative
approach through ten semi-structured interviews. These type of interviews were
chosen as they combine open-ended questions to which participants are
encouraged to answer freely with no limitation in the length or in the content of
their answer, and closed questions for which either a positive or a negative
answer is expected (Clough & Nutbrown, 2007). The major benefits of the semi-
structured interview are that this approach is less intrusive and influencing than
structured interview since the interviewee can ask questions to the interviewer, it
encourages a two-way communication.
Also, in the case of fairly closed-ended questions (Cohen et al., 2007), the
interviewees often give more than closed answers, they usually also provide the

30
reasons of their responses which bring interesting insight and understanding
(Gillham, 2000; Ritchie &Lewis, 2003). The informed consent from each
participant have been collected, therefore each participation is unsolicited.
Participants have been provided with sufficient information necessary to allow
them to reach and informed decision as to whether to participate or not
(Dissertation guide). Through the whole process, the research activities have
been designed, carried out, reported and documented accurately, transparently
and objectively. Whilst tourism research is unlikely to do anyone physical harm, it
could embarrass, cause anxiety, loss of self-esteem or some other form of
psychological discomfort. Indeed, all measures have been taken to ensure that
no physical or psychological damage were caused to the participants. The
anonymity of respondents and confidentiality of data collected has been strictly
respected at all times (see EA2 form in Appendix 1).
The 10 participants have been interviewed one by one, face to face in neutral
places and all interviews have been tape recorded, contend analysed and
partially transcribed for interpretation (Cohen and Crabtree, 2006). Questions
have been clearly structured prior to the interview (Cohenet al., 2007) in order to
encourage the interviewee, and therefore to make it easy to respond (Clough &
Nutbrown, 2007, p.134). The framework of the conducted semi-structured
interviews is available in Appendix 2.
Interviewees are from both gender, with different age rate, socio-economic status
and nationality. This approach intends to collect multiple perceptions through
people with various backgrounds and different personal experiences to obtain a
balanced sample. The qualitative analysis aims to understand the in depth

31
relation between perception and behaviour and at the same highlight the
influencing factors in publicity and information.
Nevertheless, although the qualitative analysis gives an exhaustive
understanding of the relation between perception and behaviour in the case of
the participants and highlights the influencing factors in publicity and information,
it remains challenging to output a general framework from a reduced sample of
the population. In that event, in order to support the obtained results of the
qualitative analysis, complementary research has been conducted under a
quantitative approach. It consists to factor into statistics the results obtained from
a survey in order to produce a statistically validated stereotype.

32
2.2.2 Quantitative approach
Quantitative research is a study involving the analysis of numerical data and
using statistical techniques. The hypothesis associated with the survey remains
that there might be behavioural similarities related to the perception tourists holds
about a destination. The research question within is to analyse the influencing
factors and identify their roles. The advantages of the quantitative method are
that the result is quantifiable as it is numerical. It can be considered as more
objective and generalised to a larger population. Therefore the results of
quantitative method can be used to develop a framework illustrating how force
majeure and related publicity adversely affects tourists’ perception of a
destination.
The survey has been conducted over 213 people with respect to the Rules of
thumb. The survey has been created on the internet with accessible tools and the
final data has been implemented on SPSS for accurate results. According to
Leary (1995), there are distinct advantages in using a questionnaire
methodology. There are cheap and easy to administer and allow confidentiality to
be assured. As well, Robson (1993) has indicated, mailed surveys are extremely
efficient at providing information in a relatively brief time period and at low cost to
the researcher. In the current study, the questionnaire was sent to participants by
email and through social networks. The use of this method’s distribution has a
snowball effect which reaches a large number of people. Gay (1987) admitted
that random sampling is the best single way to obtain a representative sample,
available for the measurement which corresponds accurately to the overall tourist
population which confirms its validity.

33
However, the limitation of sampling is regarding the language. As the survey is in
English only English speakers, native speakers or foreign, can answer the
questions. Moreover, another limitation can be highlighted; using emailing and
social media to diffuse the survey offers the opportunity to reach large audiences,
nevertheless it dismisses all people who are not using the Internet. In the
meantime, this exclusion puts in light one important criteria of the study; tourism
is an information intensive industry and the most important feature in reaching
information nowadays is by using the internet as an information channel. The
research question is being answered using the statistical tools. It begins with
frequency analysis and the sample composition.
Moreover the use of cross-tabulation analysis with categorical variables provides
a basic picture of the association of two variables. The hypothesis of current
study regarding whether or not there is a pattern in tourists’ behaviour towards
their perception of destination is confirmed by the Chi-square analysis. This
analysis is a test of independence used to determine whether the observed
values significantly deviate from the expected ones. The greater the difference
between expected and observed, the more patterning there is in the observed
data. However, to determine if there is a statistical relationship between key
variables the analysis of variance (ANOVA) is the tool to be used. With ANOVA
method the significance can be tested and the likelihood that those particular
outcomes occur by chance can be identified. The significance is represented in
the table by the p value. To have a full understanding of the findings tables, it is
important to remind that the smaller the p value, the greater the likelihood that the

34
findings are valid. All tables are analysed and discussed in the following sections.
To be able to consider the result as statistically significant, p has to be lower than
0.05. The limitation with the ANOVA method is that it only enables to determine if
there is a relationship between categories but it does not provide the necessary
information to evaluate this particular relationship. Several independent variables
were examined, including travel experience, risk perception level, age and
gender, type of travellers and occurrence of children in households. Dependent
variables were three key stages of the decision-making process, including the
general decision to travel, the extent of information research and concern for
safety in evaluating destination alternatives.
To finish, an accurate evaluation of the dimension structure of variables has to be
done. To do so, factors are examined in order to explore interrelated variables.
Once the common factors are calculated with the correlation matrix, the factors
are extracted and rotated to create a more understandable factor structure that
enables a good interpretation of the results. The different aspects of the tourists’
perception must be related or correlated in some way. If several variables
correlate highly, they may measure aspects of a common underlying dimension.
Those dimensions are called factors. Potentially there are as many factors as the
number of questions. In order to forecast the market orientations and limit the
negative impact of an uncontrollable event, a typical profile of the target market is
generated. It considers the higher rates in answers to create a general profile
corresponding to the target. Although, any variations in responses are identified,
analysed and explained in every step.

35
If this pattern is acknowledged then an efficient plan can be made: in order to
produce alternative strategic solutions so as to assist the tourism industry and the
destination image recovery in response to force majeure.
Considering all those theoretical findings from the past, this study aims to check
their validity. The general frame of the analysis having been set through the prior
explanation, the results of the interviews are henceforth extracted and analysed,
in order to respond to the initially formulated question, how force majeure
adversely effects tourists perception of a destination.

36
CHAPTER 3: FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS
3.1 Sample composition analysis and interpretation
The results of the conducted research are described and analysed in this section.
Tables have been organised in order to be clear and show the revealing data.
However additional detailed tables are available in Appendix 4. Descriptive
analysis involves examining the characteristics of individual variables. As the
online survey was designed for participants to answer each field before
submitting, all the data collected and used are valid. Therefore, the percentage
obtained is accurate and includes the whole panel of answers.
Table 2: Sample composition
Nationality Gender
Pourcentage % Pourcentage %
French 44.5 Male 54.0
British 16.0 Female 46.0
German 9.1 Age range
Swiss 1.1 Pourcentage %
Swedish .4 15 to 20 4.9
Italian 3.4 20 to 30 38.0
American 7.2 30 to 40 22.8
Dominican 4.6 40 to 50 12.2
Colombian 1.1 50 to 60 14.4
Japanese 1.5 Over 60 7.6
Jamaican 5.7 Do you consider yourself as
used to travel?Indian 1.1
Spanish 1.1 Pourcentage %
Tunisian 1.5 Yes 76.4
Mexican 1.5 No 23.6
The data used in Table 2 are frequency data

37
The sample consisted of 263 participants, with slightly more males (54% (n =
142)) than females (46% (n =121). The questionnaire diffusion went snowballing
from France. This explains why 44.5% from the respondents have a French
nationality; however several other countries are represented in the sample which
makes nationality an interesting variable for cross tabulation, correlations and
interpretation. Surprisingly the respondents’ age range is relatively well balanced
as all categories are signifying, as well as for the nationality variable, the facts
that all age rages are represented makes the sample representative and reliable.
The last information given in table 2 is a subjective question regarding whether or
not the participants consider themselves as used to travel.
The question has been asked with the intention of identifying if the respondents
are informed about travels and therefore have the sufficient knowledge to answer
this specific questionnaire. A large majority (76.4%) believe themselves that they
are indeed used to traveling, thus by extension they have the abilities to
understand the topic and respond. Regarding the 23.6% of participants that do
not think they are used to traveling, it can be inferred that their answer implies
some form of modesty. It has been verified with question 2 and 3, asking
respectively how many times a year participants travel for leisure (question 2) and
for work (question 3), that every participant is travelling at least once a year for
leisure (table available in Appendix 4, Table 10).
Therefore, it is possible to consider their answers as they know how to travel.
Even though the frequency of their travels is low they are also representative of
the overall population. This paper aims to study, among other things the risk
perception and its influencing factors such as safety perception of a destination.

38
3.2 Travellers’ type analysis
Regarding the type of travellers, risk perception and the criteria of safety may be
different. Hence why, the travellers’ type is primarily analysed as being part of the
sample composition.
Table 3: Travellers' type
What type of traveller are you?
Pourcentage %
With a group of friends 23.2
With your family 21.7
On your own 19.8
With your friends and family 14.4
With a friend 14.1
With collegues for business related trip 6.8
The above table shows with whom travellers are usually sharing their experience.
There is an attention-grabbing question arising from it concerning the relation
between the risk perception and type of traveller. The hypothesis would be that
there is a relationship between the travellers’ type and the risk perception;
however the quantitative analysis tool ANOVA, used to determine correlation
between variables, doesn’t allow an analysis of this particular relationship.
Therefore, as the question cannot be answered through the quantitative analysis,
a closer look as been given to interviewees’ perceptions.

39
3.3 Risk perception analysis
Through the qualitative analysis of the interviews some of the in-depth reasons
for this relationship have been revealed.
“On a personal matter, I wouldn’t mind going to those destinations even right after
the disaster, because as people say “lighting never strike twice at the same
place”, but when it comes to travelling with my family I don’t consider the same
travel destinations at all […] it’s just that as a mother I don’t want to put my kids in
danger at any point.” (Participant 4: Sacha, single mother with two kids)
“I don’t know if safety is really the thing I’m seeking, but as I grow older it is more
the sanitary conditions of the destination that matter to me rather than the political
environment situation or whatever.” (Participant 8: John, 62 and freshly retired)
Those two quotes bring partial explanations regarding the nature of the
relationship of travellers’ type and risk aversion. It appears that the vulnerability of
children seems to be a predominant factor in the decision making-process of
parents. Applying these results to the destination recovery process and the need
of destination to regain their previous market, it might be interpreted that families
are not the right group to target in the period following the disaster. It is therefore
understandable that for parents, as they have the responsibility of looking after
their kids would be more reluctant to take the risk considering the responsibility
they have.
In Sacha’s perception the destination seems to be safe enough for her to go,
however the destination doesn’t fulfil her own underlying perception of a safe
environment for children. On another hand John’s insights on safety relates to the

40
sanitary aspect of the destination. In other words the destination in which natural
disasters would have damaged the environment could show sanitary deficiencies
at the initial stage of recovery. For example after the occurrence of flood, all water
cannot be drained and stagnant water can remain. It increases the risk of
diseases and insects carrying diseases.
Considering Sacha and John’s previous statements, it seems that they are
adopting a risk-averse behaviour. In question 10 of the survey, respondents are
asked if they consider themselves risk averse or risk seeking. The answers are
displayed in Appendix 4 table 11 and reveal a quasi-fifty-fifty results, risk averse
represents 49.4% (n=130) and risk seeking 50.6% (n=133). In order to interpret
the results and understand which factor is correlated to being risk averse or risk
seeking, question 10 has been cross-tabled with gender and age range (see table
4 and 5 below).
Table 4: Cross-table analysis of risk and gender factors
In general, do you consider yourself as being more:
Effectif
Risk averse Risk seeking Total
Gender
Male 72 (27.3%) 70 (26.6%) 142
Female 58 (22%) 63 (24%) 121
Total 130 133 263
It appears that the factors are equivalents. The 72 risk-averse males represent
27.3% of the total respondents (n=263) and 50.7% of the males (n=142), the
other 70 risk seeking males represent another 26.6% of the whole sample and as
well 49.3% of the males. The female results are also well-adjusted. Females risk-
aversion represents 22% of the sample which embodies 58 females out of the

41
263 respondents, it is as well 48% of the total number of females (58 out of 121),
while females who are risk-seeking represent the remaining 24% of the general
sample and 52% of the female sample (63 out of 263 on general sample and 63
out of 121 females).
It can therefore readily be concluded that gender doesn’t impact the trait of being
risk-averse or risk seeking. Moreover it is inferred that those two variables alone
are not related. Leep and Gibons (2007), in their paper entitled “Sensation
Seeking and Tourism: Tourist role, perception of risk and destination choice”
have suggested that sensation seeking is a personality trait associated with the
need for novelty and stimulation. As gender doesn’t seem to influence the risk
perception there might be a correlation with another variable such as age range.
Table 5: Cross-table analysis of risk and age range factors
In general, do you consider yourself as being more:
Effectif
Risk averse Risk seeking Total
Age range
15 to 20 7 6 13
20 to 30 49 51 100
30 to 40 26 34 60
40 to 50 4 28 32
50 to 60 33 5 38
Over 60 11 9 20
Total 130 133 263
Similarly results are balanced within age range categories except for the “50 to
60” and “Over 60” in which the tendency is clearly to favour risk aversion rather
than risk seeking. This result is understandable, as mentioned before risk seeking
is associated with the need for novelty and stimulation. Therefore, it has been
verified that the age is not the predominant factor in risk perception. Given that

42
gender and age range are not predominant factors the same analysis has been
done with nationality import influencing factors of tourist perception.
The cross-table of risk and nationality can be found in Appendix 4 Table 13. The
result of the analysis shows that the larger sample of French people is as risk
averse than risk seeking with respectively 57 and 60 respondents over 117;
British are more risk seeking than risk averse unlike Americans who seem to be
totally risk averse, as well as Dominicans, Tunisians, Mexican, Colombians and
Indians where all respondents have chosen risk averse. On the contrary, all
respondents from Switzerland, Sweden, Italy, Japan and Spain have answered
risk seeking.
On the first sight it appears that nationality influences risk perception and
therefore could be an inducing factor of the destination decision making process.
However, since the sample for each nationality is limited, generalisation is not
possible. When looking at the overall sample (n=263) and the answers given, it
appears one more time that the results are balanced. In fact over 263
respondents, 130 are risk averse and 133 risk seeking. Consequently, nationality
is not the predominant factor influencing risk perception. Under these conditions
further in depth analysis needs to be conducted. Korstanje (2007) in his study
about risks entitled “Why risks, why now?” arrived at the conclusion that the type
of psychological personality plays a crucial role at the time of determining risk
perception. His deduction partially answer the question enquired in this study
regarding the most important factor influencing tourists’ perception.
Indeed, personality and psychological profile are individuals’ factors that cannot
be damaged by the external environment. Going further in the analysis, the

43
hypothesis of the current study is that external factors such as media plays a
crucial role in creating and influencing perception and thus impact drastically
tourist’s decision making process.
In other interesting research question of this study is to identify which of the force
majeure is perceived as the most frightening. The analysis of the obtained figures
at this question is making progress answering the hypothesis.

44
3.4 Which force majeure is mostly feared: possible correlations seeking
The conclusion that gender, age and nationality do not significantly impact
perception of risks, based on question 10 of the survey, a further precise question
has been asked seeking for a predominant correlation factor. As risk has a wide
terminology, the question has been asked in a roundabout way including the
notion of fear and directing to three possible answers which correspond to the
three categories of force majeure established in this study. Therefore, question
16 is asking the participants which force majeure frightens them the most among
natural disasters, political turmoil and terrorist attacks. The obtained results are
as follow.
Table 6: Analysis of the fear factor
When travelling, which of the following force majeure frightens you the
most?
Effectif
When travelling, which of the following force
majeure frightens you the most?
Total
The occurrence of Natural disaster 41
The occurrence of Political turmoil 71
The occurrence of Terrorist attacks 151
Total 263
Initially the same cross tabulation with gender, age and nationality has been done
in order to confirm or not the results found with the risk perception question. The
three crossed-tables are available in Appendix 4 table 14, 15 and 16.
In fact, the results obtained show once more that the significance of variation in
answers is not important enough to affirm that those three factors significantly
influence tourists’ choice of the most frightening force majeure.

45
However the repartition of responses itself raises a thought-provoking question.
Indeed, terrorism attacks are ranked as the most frightening force majeure by far
compared to natural disaster and political turmoil for more than 50% of the
respondents. In fact, when it comes to terrorism, the number of answers almost
triples regardless of the nationality, age or gender. A common thought would be
that terrorism is the worst of force majeure. Nevertheless, this statement only
relies on ones’ perception. Indeed, which factor is determinant in prompting
terrorism as the scariest force majeure?
When comparing natural disaster, political turmoil and war, and terrorism the
facts shows that, as explained in the literature review, the three of them share the
same characteristics. They are unpredictable, unavoidable, strike suddenly,
create a situation of crisis, generate confusion and fear, damage the
environment, impact the populations and most of all they each cause a large
amount of deaths and victims when they occur. Moreover, there is no tangible
distinction in their frequency or location of occurrence nor in the number of deaths
they have caused so far. In facts, the obtained results could have probably been
explained if terrorism had the most important deaths toll over the two others.
However, according to GTI (Global Terrorism Index, 2014) and the UNISDR
(United Nations Office for Disaster Risk reduction, 2013), it appears that between
2000 and 2012 the total deaths toll of terrorism acts was over 89,000 deaths
while natural disasters count over 1.2 million deaths. Therefore, the influencing
factor is not the amount of victims generated by force majeure.

46
Consequently, there is another existing reason to explain the results. Indeed, it
seems like here is an interesting differentiation that could be highlighted and
which might explain the obtained figures.
3.5 Knowledge acquisition: key element for image and perception creation
In order hold a perception about something, it is needed to have sufficient
knowledge, i.e., information has been received or sought to enable creation of
opinions and perception. Therefore, where is the information received or sought?
Through which channel are the intentional information gathered?
A useful contrast in characterising information acquisition is to consider passive
versus active information gathering (Jensen, 1988; Feder and Slade, 1984).
Passive information is received through medial channels such as; TV,
newspapers, or radio, where the audience or the readers are informed about
general news whether they are interested in the subject or not. Active information
relates to information seeking, while passive information includes all information
received consciously or subconsciously through different media. When travelling
to a destination, 92.1% of the tourists are willing to gather information prior to
travel (see table 17in Appendix 4). Therefore the question has been asked
‘through which channels are the information collected?’
About 30% of the respondents proceed to a general internet research to collect
data about the destination, 22.4% are researching directly through the tourism
office’s website of the destination, 15% use online blogs, where content is
generated by both professional and travellers, and 12.2% are checking the

47
governmental website of the destination. The remaining 11% are using articles
from both online and journals and lastly 8.4% would ask their travel agent for
further information about the destination (table available in Appendix 4, table 18).
Those results show how intentional formation is acquired. Therefore, as media
has many forms and can be broadcast through diversified channels, it is
important to identify the credit given to the different sources of information people
are exposed to.
3.6 Perception and reliability of the information sources
To have an idea of which source of information is the most trusted, respondents
were asked to rate a proposed list of information channels from one to five, one
being a very reliable source in their opinion, and five being absolutely not reliable
for information. The descriptive table of the results is available in Appendix 4
table 19. To go further in quantitative data analysis, and in order to have a better
understanding of the influence of each media channel, those sources have been
examined through a factor analysis in the objective of finding underlying clusters.
Indeed, questions and variables measure something unique but also something
common with other questions. The factor analysis tends to demonstrate whether
different measures are relevant aspects of a common dimension. This method is
realisable applicable in the case of our study as we have a large data set. It was
initially assumed that there are some underlying structures within the data. The
factor analysis is a statistical procedure of data reduction. It first starts with the
KMO and Bartlett’s test of sphericity which reveals if in this specific case factor
analysis would be conductive conducive.

48
Table 7: Factor analysis and underlying clusters, KMO measure of sampling
Adequacy and Bartlett's test of sphericity
Indice KMO et test de Bartlett
Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy. .793
Bartlett's Test of Sphericity
Approx. Chi-Square 2837.698
df 190
Sig. .000
The above table of KMO and Bartlett’s test of sphericity produces the Kaiser-
Meyer-Olkin measure of sampling adequacy and Bartlett’s test. The value of
KMO should be greater than 0.5 if the sample is adequate. In fact, the KMO and
Bartlett’s Test indicates that the data is conducive to factor analysis as the KMO
value (0.793) is greater than 0.5.
Consequently, the different aspects of media and level of reliability must be
related or correlated in some way. If several variables correlate highly, it means
that it measures aspects of a common underlying dimension. Those dimensions,
called factors, are revealing the intensity of their impact on tourist perception.
Potentially there are as many factors as the number of questions, in this case it
means 20 factors were possible. Due to the Eigenvalues and the percentage of
variance accounted for each factor in table 8 it was possible to extract 6
significant and usable factors out of the 20 asked questions with Eigenvalues
greater than 1. Those results are demonstrated in Appendix 4 table 20.
The factor analysis has helped to reduce the number of variables by identifying
groups of inter-correlated variables. To go deeper in the interpretation of the six
factors, the dataset has to be rewritten according to these new factors in order to

49
score each individual respondent in terms of these new dimensions. For accurate
analysis of the computed factor scores a factor rotation matrix is implemented.
The original table of factor rotation obtained after proceeding with SPSS is table
21 (Appendix 4).
It is already possible to see the six different dimensions according to each column
but as the data is raw the table has been cleaned to ease visualisation and
interpretation of the clusters. Moreover, in order to assist the interpretation and
the delimitation of dimensions it is possible to maximise the loading of variables
on one factor while minimising its loading on all other factors. As a matter of
reliability, only the greater values in each row has been retained, i.e., that the
lowest value with less significance has been eliminated in order to have a clear
and relevant table of the six factors as exposed next page in table 8.

50
Table 8: Factor analysis and underlying clusters
Rotated component Matrixa
Which source of information do you trust
the most?
Components
1 2 3 4 5 6
General media
Tv Advert .700
Tv News .694
Documentaries .466
Journal articles .639
Newspaper .734
Web media
Blogs .805
Social Media .769
Internet Commercials .689
Tangible readings
Magasin .624
Brochure .847
Leaflets .751
Entertainments
Books .739
Movies .613
Tv shows .699
Representatives of an authority
Government websites .736
Specialized websites .824
Professional .845
First hand sources
Your own Experience .312
Word of mouth .727
Your family and relatives experience
.772
Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis.
Rotation Method: Varimax with Kaiser Normalization.
a. Rotation converged in 12 iterations.

51
The factor analysis has succeeded in reducing the number of measures from 20
to 6. Each factor represents a dimension of media. Exanimating the underlying
data structure and reducing the number of measures has facilitated the analysis.
It now fits with the conceptual framework.
The obtained factors have been named according to the elements they include,
namely: general media, web media, tangible reading, entertainment,
representative of an authority, and first hand sources. The most important
dimension in terms of key attribute and trust by the tourists is their own
experience and by extension the first hand sources factor. Nevertheless, the
second most important category is the representative of an authority. The general
media category followed by the social media with mitigate trust of the participant
regarding they reliability.
Concerning the remaining two categories, their reliability in respondents’ opinion
is quite low, except for books within the tangible sources category. All those
components are important to take into consideration with the aim of suggesting
alternative solution for destination recovery, the communication and marketing
have a large impact on the factors within this dimension.

52
3.7 Approaching the media channels and information acquisition in the
perspective of asking tourist their judgement on media’s reliability.
Interestingly, TV shows and movies have been graded as having the lowest
reliability level. However considering past examples of common situation those
two sources of random information diffusion have shown good results in term of
subconscious influence. Indeed, after the tsunami disaster in Indonesia in 2004
and the terrorist attacks in Bali in 2007, the tourism had slowed down as for any
destination hit by force majeure.
However, in August 2010 the movie “Eat, pray, love”, realised by Ryan Murphy,
was broadcasted in cinemas of several countries. It had a pronounced success at
the time and two years later, Bali had reached its highest number of tourists and
was classified as one of the top 10 destinations in the world. Nonetheless, it
cannot be said affirmatively that this specific movie had any influence on the
tourist’s choice of destination as there is no scientific facts that support this
theory.
In the same vein, the French TV show called “Les Marseillais” (called after the
appellation of the city of Marseille inhabitants) has been very popular since its
first broadcast in 2012. Already four seasons have been broadcasted on the main
TV chains for the past two years. For each season, habitants from Marseille are
selected to go to attractive tourist destination to accomplish challenges and
missions.
The first destination was Cancun, which, at the time, was not a destination of
interest for the French tourist for several reasons (expensive travel and low

53
amount of packages available at the time). However, after the diffusion of the first
season starting in November 2012, the number of packages for Mexico and
especially Cancun were found in almost every tour operator or travel agency. The
same thing happened with Miami and Rio as in season 2 and 3. Once again,
there is still no valid data regarding the actual influence of this particular TV show.
Nevertheless, it raises an interesting point about subconscious influence of the
media as they are reported to be the less reliable source of representative
information about a destination. The elements could be a research topic for
further studies. Relating to the results of the factor analysis table, it can be
pointed out that the two most trusted dimensions, first hand sources and
representative of an authority, are both considered as active information sources
as they are used for the specific purpose of seeking information about a
destination. However the other four dimensions mainly relate to passive
information acquiring during which information are gathered subconsciously.
Moreover, those four dimensions all together represent more than 80% of
information channels.
The first conclusion that can be drawn from the rotated matrix in table 8 is that
media rule the passive information system. In other words, if the information is
not communicated through media then it can be assumed that the majority of the
population would not be aware of it, except people who are specifically looking for
it. This observation places the media in a position of unprecedented power over
the information they broadcast, moreover while everybody in the population is not
able to receive first-hand information such as own experience or benefit from
relatives and family experience.

54
Therefore their opinion is created upon available information, which is displayed
by the media. It confers significant power as population rely on them as if they
were an authority, in fact it seems like they are the authority in information
broadcasting. This statement has been verified thanks to the replication of the
Milgram experiment (1963, 1974) done in 2009 by French and other European
searchers in science and psychology, on the power of television and my
extension the power of media.
3.7 The power of media: reproduction of Milgram’s experiment
In spring 2010, a documentary by Christophe Nick called the Game of Death was
broadcast on several large European chains. This documentary intends to
present the replicated experiment of Milgram showing the impact of television
media environment on the behaviour of individuals. Indeed, the experiment
reveals that television is a distinctive tool of power, which can force people into
obedience or to obey either consciously or subconsciously. Those results are
similar to those obtained by Milgram in 1963, during his second experiment on
obedience, regarding the power of institution, governments, science, religion etc.
(Milgram, 1974).

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3.8 SWOT analysis of media
In this paper, the media has been presented with a singular negative connotation
in influencing tourists’ perception. However, on a global scale, the media, as a
communication channel is the most important distributor when it comes to
notifying and updating the population in case of force majeure. In fact, because of
their established power on population they could be considered as the main asset
of governments in large communication campaigns to alert the population of
upcoming disasters when forecasted or to communicate security and safety
instruction in case of force majeure.
Moreover, during the recovery of the destination, the media embody the perfect
marketing when used adequately. This will be discussed in the next part of the
repot as it relates to the alternative solutions proposed to assist destination
recovery process. Pro tem, strengths, weaknesses, opportunity and threats of
media channels are listed in the following SWOT table (on the next page). This
type of inquiry is usually conducted for a market analysis, in the context of this
paper, it is the tool used to bring out the perspective of media gainful use.

56
Table 9: Swot analysis of media channels
Strengths Weaknesses
- The proved power of media
- Majority of media channels are
accessible to populations
- Information can be given in real time
- Information travels and is not limited
to the country where it is first
broadcasted
- Source intensive medium
- Multiplicity of media channels
- Contradiction of information
- Tendency to exaggerate and dramatize
- The own purpose of media is not
always in favour of external actors
- Quality of information is not always
verified
Opportunities Threats
- Powerful tool for communication in
case of force majeure
- Important communication tool usable
for marketing
- Specific media as social media
represent an ideal channel to use
indirectly for marketing
- Multiplicity of sources can create
confusion,
- Loss of reliability and accuracy in
information
- Media aim to make profit on
information broadcasting regardless of
the impact on other economy systems.

57
3.9 Adaptation of Gunn’s model (1988)
Now that opportunities and threats have been identified with regards to the
strengths and weaknesses of media, it is therefore possible to investigate what
opportunities can be taken in order to support the positive image creation and
recovery of destinations. To do so, the current study refers to the model
established by Gunn (1988), presented in the literature review chapter, to
implement marketing strategies using the right media channel at the right time.
Gunn’s model of destination image formation includes seven phases of the travel
experience:
1. Accumulation of mental images about vacation experiences.
The first phase of image creation relies on personal experiences of previous
vacations, word of mouth, relatives and family experiences, which correspond to
the first dimension in factor analysis.
2. Modification of those images by further information.
The first idea or image held about a particular destination is then subject to
change with passive and active information acquiring. It tends to be that
information sought out has more influence than information received
subconsciously as the travellers are intentionally looking for data to gather and
interpret them objectively to create their own opinion.
In this stage, the associated dimension would be the “representative authorities”
which is confirmed in table 18 answering the question “which channel do you
usually use prior to your travel to collect information concerning the destination”.

58
The main channels quotes were; tourism office websites, governmental websites
which embody the authority of institutions, online blogs which refers to
information generated by other travellers so it can be related to the first hand
dimension, and general internet research which demonstrates the willingness of
travellers to gather data from different sources to compare them and thus obtain
accurate data. Among the information collected some of the destination’s assets
are decisive in decision making such as; safety of the travel location, historic
sites, friendliness of the locals, accessibility, cultural patrimony and weather at
destination (see table 22 in Appendix 4). On a marketing point of view, phase 2 of
Gunn’s model is where there is a card to play for strategic marketing.
Through the knowledge of travellers’ favourite information channel and the credit
they give to information sources in general, it is therefore possible to plan an
effective marketing strategy when rebuilding the destination image.
3. Decision to take a vacation trip
The final decision to take a vacation trip to a particular destination relies at the
end on tourists’ internal characteristics or personal factors. This has been
explained by the researcher Beerli and Martin (2003) who have conducted a
study on travel decision making process. They conclude that the decision is
influenced by “tourists’ internal characteristics or personal factors on the different
components of perceiving image”. They also have analysed and defined more
precisely “the relationship between the perceived image and the tourist
motivations, their accumulated experience of vacation travel and socio-
demographic characteristics referring to their gender, age, and level of education,
social class and country of residence are assessed” (Beerli and Martin, 2003).

59
The results of their study has indicated that: “(1) Motivation influence the affective
component of image; (2) The experience of vacation travel has significant
relationship with cognitive and affective images, and (3) The socio demographic
characteristics influence the cognitive and effective assessment of image” (Beerli
and Martin, 2003).
4. Travel to the destination
While traveling to the destination tourists are having their own experience and
collecting first-hand information and therefore start creating or improving the
conceptual image they had of the destination. Therefore, the journey to the
destination is the first step of their travel experience, in order to start with a
positive impression it would be surely preferable that the travel experience comes
about smoothly.
5. Participation at the destination
Participation at the destination is one important element after force majeure. It
can even be thought as an attractive asset for the first tourists to come back.
Therefore, one of the suggestions in destination image rebuilding is to encourage
humanitarian missions in the initial phase of recovery. Indeed, volunteers could
be the right target market in promoting the recovery of the destination. Their
experience and participation at the destination will provide them with positive
images which they will share back home. Moreover, in a media communication
perspective, while recovering, the destination should ensure to prioritise the
access to internet in hotels and other places of interest. This might seems, at first
sight, a shallow concern considering that the destination just suffered the

60
occurrence a major disaster; however, it is the most important indirect marketing
strategy.
In a time where smartphones are blooming in every household and where social
networking has become a common daily phenomenon, internet access is the key
for positive advertising when tourists are still at the destination. When Gunn
(1988) created his model, the factors of destination image diffusion were
implemented in phase 6, when tourists were returning home. Nevertheless, in the
current time technology systems are abundant and regardless of nationality, age
or gender, the majority of tourists like to share real-time impressions, pictures and
surprises.
Pictures of the tourists’ travels are an important asset, as Smith et al. (2009) have
suggested, travel-related information plays crucial role in the travellers’
imagination when a territory remains unfamiliar. Therefore, “Word-of-mouth
recommendations or travel online reviews are valid instruments in order for
travellers to diminish their angst during their stay out of home” (Korstanje, 2007).
To this extent, it is suggested to encourage hotels and other facilities to have
sufficient access to the internet and also to implement online reviewing of the
hotel, so that tourists can give their insight in real time and contribute implicitly to
the marketing strategy of the destination during and after their holidays.
6. Return home
Once at home, the information diffusion continues regarding the places of interest
tourists have visited, activities that have been done, contribution to the
destination, they also usually bring back souvenirs and gifts for relatives and
family and there is when the experience is shared and spread again. Moreover,

61
travellers usually compare their travel experiences and intend to receive feedback
from other destinations. Therefore it can lead to the modification of the image
others could hold about the destination and have a positive influence in attracting
other tourists. Additionally, the perception tourists held about the place before
travelling at the destination might have changed between phase 1 and 6 which
leads to the very personal phase 7 in which the final set of the image is done.
7. Modification of images based on the vacation experience.
Travel experience is one of the factors helping building individuals’ psychological
personality and therefore influencing their decisions as Korstanje (2007)
demonstrated in his study “Why risks, Why now?” To complete the current study
two final questions still have to be discussed.
The first one aims to identify the willingness of tourists to travel back to a known
destination after a disaster, and the reasons of their answers, and the perceived
period of time necessary, in travellers’ opinion, for destination to recover from
each type of force majeure.
3.10 Willingness to return at the destination after a disaster
Question 11 of the survey was seeking for respondents to give their opinion on
whether or not they would return to a destination hit by force majeure. In the
objective of obtaining accurate answers, the question was formulated using their
favourite destination as a reference. This means, they are already familiar with
the destination and they are not usually reluctant to travel there.

62
Table 10: Willingness to return at destination
Cross table If one of your favourite destination was hit by a
disaster, would you still be willing to travel to the destination? *
How many times a year do you travel for leisure?
Effectif
If one of your favourite destinations was hit by
a disaster, would you still be willing to travel
to the destination?
Total
Yes, I would travel to the destination anyway 24
Yes, I would travel to the destination when it will
have recover from the disaster
82
No, I am not willing to go back to the destination 59
No, I am not willing to go back yet 63
I don't know 35
Total 263
The majority of respondents are willing to return to the destination when they will
perceive it as safe and secure, i.e., when it will have recover from the disaster.
This relates to question 11, 12 and 13 of the survey regarding the recovery period
of destination. In fact, if tourists’ perception of recovery time is too long they might
turn away from the destination and that would explain why in the above table 82
respondents, are positive to return after recovery of the destination, while 63
answer that they are not willing to go back yet, meaning that they are not
abandoning the idea of returning to the destination, however as they might not
know how the situation will evolve they prefer to play it safe and chose the “No”
answer hiding a slight possibility that they will return after all.
To the question of assumed recovery time period for a destination after each
disaster the results are the following.

63
Table 11: Estimated recovery time of destinations
In your opinion, what would be the recovery time after:
Natural Disaster Terrorism Acts Political Instabilities
N % N % N %
1 to 10 Weeks 14 5.3 1 to 10 weeks 13 4.9 1 to 10 weeks 5 1.9
1 to 6 months 100 38.0 1 to 6 months 65 24.7 1 to 6 months 37 14.1
6 months to 1 year 30 11.4 6 months to 1 year 49 18.6 6 months to 1 year 75 28.5
At least 1 year 58 22.1 At least 1 year 41 15.6 At least 1 year 57 21.7
Several years 48 18.3 Several years 71 27.0 Several years 53 20.2
More than 5 years 13 4.9 More than 5 years 17 6.5 More than 5 years 32 12.2
More than 10 years 0 0.0 More than 10 years 7 2.7 More than 10 years 4 1.5
Total 263 100.0 Total 263 100.0 Total 263 100.0
The obtained results are much diversified. This can indicate two things; first that
the respondents don’t have a precise idea on how fast a destination can recover;
this is probably to a lack of information or knowledge on this specific topic; or that
they have each answered having different specific examples in mind. For
example, as Marc explained when he was answering the same question in his
interview “I think it depends on the exact type of disaster we are talking about.
Let’s see, when I’m working with the Caribbean islands, first of all I make sure I’m
not going there or sending my clients there when it’s the hurricanes’ season (...)
but then when it has happened, I don’t need to wait long before I can go back
there.” (Participant 7, working in the travel industry related field, travels a lot).
On the other hand John was referring to the tsunami when answering the same
question “(..) I think, (..) it would take up to two years before thing starts to go
back to normal. The first year they (referring to the locals) will have to rebuild
everything and cope with the damage, then when one year has passed there is
the commemoration of the losses – which by the way might bring back to the
destination people that have lost relative in the disaster, it’s kind of like

64
commemoration tourism (..) then, well, yeah after the second year I think people
have (..) not forgotten, but at least the disaster in not as fresh in their mind as it
would be the first year following the disaster.” (Participant 3, freshly graduated
young worker)
This interesting comment meets Alina’s opinion when she said when she was
referring to recovery after the occurrence of terrorism acts “[…] it’s all that media
coverage that gives bad perception of the destination. As soon as the media
would have find something else to talk about then people will not here about it
anymore and they will probably forget and go back to the vision they had initially
of the destination.” (Participant 1, freshly graduated and currently working in the
tourism field)
Alina added later in the interview that things shouldn’t be hidden to the tourists
when selling packages but she also mentioned “I never know what to say when
people are asking me if a destination is safe or not (laughter) actually it depends
where you stand in your risk attitude. I had this middle age couple willing to travel
to Brazil for one month and stopping in several cities. They asked me if Brazil
was safe. The generic answer that we are usually giving is: it depends where you
go! Every destination has its own risks; even in the smaller village you can face a
thief who will be willing to rob you. I explained them that some areas were to
avoid and that if they were careful everything should go fine. But if tomorrow
there is a terrorist attack, a flood or a civil war there I would have not be able to
forecast it. This is the point with force majeure. As a travel agent I can make
people aware of the daily risks but with regards to force majeure, no destination is
really safe”.

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Alina and the other interviewees brought a lot of consistent information in order to
conclude this study. Unfortunately it was not possible to include in this paper all
substantial extracts from the interviews for word count reasons. However, as
most of the interviews were conducted before and at the same time as the
survey, their answers to the questions have helped analysing the quantitative
data gathered and therefore help to draw the conclusions of this study.

Sara WUNSCH-Dissertation

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