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NextEra - Exxon
It ain't over...
Sanjeev Saraf
MARKET CAPITALIZATION (EQUITY
VALUED BY MARKET)
NEXTERA (NEE) HOLDINGS
Florida power and light
80% natural gas electricity
Nextera capital holding
NER subsidy focused on clean energy
77% electricity from wind and solr
Gulf power
2019 acquisition, $4.4-B, $1.5-B debt
Mostly natural gas
NEXTERA POWER GENERATION SOURCES
2019
INVESTORS ARE EXCITED ABOUT
NEXTERA'S RENEWABLES PORTFOLIO;
CURRENT BACKLOG: 14-GW
FINANCIAL COMPARISON (TTM JUN 2020)
12X
2.4X
CYCLICAL VS. UTILITY VALUATION
NEE is in a price regulated utilities market
with margin pressures.
Value driver: asset utilization,
managing costs.
Growth is going to increase debt
XOM on the other hand cannot be
evaluated on one year.
Value driver: optionality to exploit
reserves, flexible cost structure
Oil portfolio captures $ during upswing
PRICE IS WHAT YOU PAY
VALUE IS WHAT YOU GET
What's baked into current market cap of
NEE is future expectation of growth and
cash from U.S. Wind operation (14-GW)
backlog)
We know what Mr. Market is saying
through pricing two equities
Would the intrinsic value of XOM and NEE
be comparable?
In the short run, the market is a
voting machine but in the long
run it is a weighing machine.
— Ben Graham

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Nexterra vs. exxon 2020

  • 1. NextEra - Exxon It ain't over... Sanjeev Saraf
  • 3. NEXTERA (NEE) HOLDINGS Florida power and light 80% natural gas electricity Nextera capital holding NER subsidy focused on clean energy 77% electricity from wind and solr Gulf power 2019 acquisition, $4.4-B, $1.5-B debt Mostly natural gas
  • 5. INVESTORS ARE EXCITED ABOUT NEXTERA'S RENEWABLES PORTFOLIO; CURRENT BACKLOG: 14-GW
  • 6. FINANCIAL COMPARISON (TTM JUN 2020) 12X 2.4X
  • 7. CYCLICAL VS. UTILITY VALUATION NEE is in a price regulated utilities market with margin pressures. Value driver: asset utilization, managing costs. Growth is going to increase debt XOM on the other hand cannot be evaluated on one year. Value driver: optionality to exploit reserves, flexible cost structure Oil portfolio captures $ during upswing
  • 8. PRICE IS WHAT YOU PAY VALUE IS WHAT YOU GET What's baked into current market cap of NEE is future expectation of growth and cash from U.S. Wind operation (14-GW) backlog) We know what Mr. Market is saying through pricing two equities Would the intrinsic value of XOM and NEE be comparable?
  • 9. In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine. — Ben Graham