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EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook

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The theme for this quarter is reprieve. Crude prices rose steadily throughout 1Q19 as OPEC+ reigned in production to counteract the impact of North American production growth. What lies ahead is uncertain, but downward pressures loom over the marketplace.

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EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook

  1. 1. EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook Q2 | April 2019
  2. 2. Q2 overview Oil markets have stabilized, at least for the time being. OPEC and Russia (‘OPEC +’) once again stepped up to support oil prices. We don’t know how much longer they can (or want to) play that role. Offsetting production growth from North American independents who are dependent on external finance from increasingly sceptical investors has been manageable. However, OPEC + now face the prospect of offsetting US production growth delivered by IOCs with strong balance sheets, access to capital, a proven capacity to withstand market cycles and the technical capabilities to bring ever more impressive technology to the oilfield. The market has taken notice of this as well as other downside forces. Futures remain in backwardation. Whether it be demand pressure from decarbonization ambitions, or further efficiency improvements from digitalization, potential downward pressure on oil prices loom. Gary Donald EY Global Oil & Gas Assurance Leader gdonald@uk.ey.com Andy Brogan EY Global Oil & Gas Leader abrogan@uk.ey.com Q2 | April 2019 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 2
  3. 3. Q2 theme The theme for this quarter is reprieve. Crude prices rose steadily throughout 1Q19 as OPEC + reigned in production to counteract the impact of North American production growth. What lies ahead is uncertain, but downward pressures loom over the marketplace. In recent periods, North American production growth has been strong in spite of profitability and cash flow challenges. Increasing interest in shale from the oil majors indicates that the corner may have been turned on economics. A renewed squeeze on cost, investment of capital and yet another surge in production seems imminent. OPEC + production cuts have been supported by the impact of US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran. Eventually that oil will come back to the market. When it does, OPEC will face another choice between market share and price stability. • How long will OPEC be able to afford, or be willing, to curtail its production to balance oil markets? • IOCs are showing an increased interest in North American shale. How will their involvement change the resilience of production growth? • What will happen when Venezuelan and Iranian oil return to the market? ? Q2 | April 2019 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 3
  4. 4. Trends Q2 | April 2019 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 4 OPEC + and US sanctions Amid sustained growth in US shale, oil markets continue to rely on production cuts from OPEC + to support prices. The impact of US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela support those efforts, for now. The sustainability of these compensating factors will play a large part in determining oil prices in the near future. IOC interest in North America North American oil production continues to surge and returns now seem sustainable. Oil majors have communicated their intent to continue investing in the region while signalling an expectation of further cost reduction. If delivered, not only would output surge, but North American production will become more resilient to market cycles. IOC equity returns lag IOC equity returns over the last five years have lagged the overall market, even when accounting for oil price effects. Concerns over their ability to transition to a low carbon world is a factor. Our research indicates that companies who are better prepared to manage energy transition risks have generated better returns than their competitors. Oil majors have started to sanction LNG projects without long-term sales agreements, instead funding projects from their balance sheets. Weaker demand resulted in Asia LNG prices reaching a three year low during 1Q19 with some cargoes diverted to Europe. LNG demand pauses
  5. 5. Market fundamentals Q2 | April 2019 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 5 Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream Source: IEA • Brent and WTI averaged $62.19 and $53.87 per bbl, respectively, during the first quarter. Average prices in 1Q19 represented a 10% decline for both benchmarks when compared to the previous quarter. 4Q18 averages were buoyed by prices realized before the steep decline that started in November following the US Government’s decision to issue waivers to major off-takers of Iranian crude. • Brent and WTI prices climbed steadily throughout 1Q19 from $50.56 and $45.15, respectively, at the start of the year. • 1Q19 prices were supported by OPEC + production cut compliance and the impact of US sanctions on both Iran and Venezuela. US production continues to grow leaving oil markets to rely on OPEC + and the impact of sanctions to support prices. • North American production growth continues to be the main driver towards oversupply, growing almost 700,000 barrels a day in the most recent quarter. Global oil demand fell seasonally between Q4 2018 and Q1 2019, further contributing to oversupply. • The fall in oil prices toward the end of last year was arrested because of OPEC + production restraint. The parties have, for now at least, accepted that North American shale oil production will grow unabated. Prices low enough to stall North American production appear too low for OPEC + to justify defending market share. • Production growth outside of OPEC and North America is, as it has been for several years now, balanced. As long as capital flows into North America and OPEC + are willing to balance the market, it seems unlikely that investment in other regions will have a significant impact on the global supply and demand balance. Steady growth in crude prices since the start of the year North American growth continues to drive oversupply 40.00 45.00 50.00 55.00 60.00 65.00 70.00 75.00 80.00 85.00 90.00 01/10/2018 01/11/2018 01/12/2018 01/01/2019 01/02/2019 01/03/2019 $/bbl Brent WTI - 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 Starting Balance Demand Growth OPEC North America Other End Balance millionbarrelsperday Movement to oversupply Movement to undersupply
  6. 6. Market fundamentals Q2 | April 2019 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 6 Source: OPEC 1 1Q19 supply movements calculated using the average of January and February volumes. Source: EIA • In an attempt to reverse the decline in oil prices that started in November, OPEC + announced an agreement to curtail production for a period of six months from January. The group has delivered on those commitments, stabilizing the market in 1Q19 despite continued growth in US output. • The reduction in OPEC + output has been emphasised by the impact of US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. US sanctions on Iran continue to suppress the nations exports and, in turn, global supply. Waivers issued by the US Government to major off-takers of Iranian crude expire in May of this year. President Trump’s desired oil price will be a key factor in the potential for the extension of such waivers. • In January, the US Government imposed sanctions on Petroleos de Venezuela (‘PDVSA’), blocking exports to the US. The US Government has warned that more severe sanctions, whereby sanctions are extended to importers outside of the US, are an option. • In Q418, for the first time since 2014, the Return on Capital Employed for North American independents exceeded those reported by IOCs. The returns generated in recent quarters are attractive to IOCs with Exxon, Chevron and BP all communicating their intent to invest further in the region. • There are good reasons to believe majors will have a different (and more favorable) cost and return equation. IOCs have better developed supply chains, more leverage with service providers and the ability to bring cutting edge technologies to bear at scale. • We believe that the growing IOC footprint in US shale has the potential to fundamentally change the market stabilization dynamic we’ve come to expect. Up until now, OPEC + production cuts had gone to offset production growth from independents with access to capital which depended on oil market conditions. IOCs are more resilient and are able to invest based on a longer view. OPEC + and the impact of US sanctions North American returns attractive -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 Quarter on quarter movement in supply Iran Venezuala OPEC + 1 -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% ReturnonCapitalEmployed IOCs NA Independents
  7. 7. Market fundamentals Q2 | April 2019 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 7 Source: Capital IQ, EY Analysis Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream • Historically, most of the variation in IOC equity returns can be explained by the movement in the broader equity markets (S&P 500) and changes in the price of oil. • In the last five years, oil company returns have lagged significantly. Oil prices have been a drag, but upward movement in stock prices should have provided some support. We believe that questions over the future of oil in a world with growing concerns over carbon emissions play a part in that trend. • Preparation for a low carbon world seems to be linked to returns. The CDP (formerly the Carbon Disclosure Project) ranked 24 companies based on energy transition readiness. CDP rankings appear to be related to five year oil and gas company equity returns. Equity returns are tied to energy transition readiness Concerns over LNG supply -25.0% -15.0% -5.0% 5.0% 15.0% 25.0% 6 8 10 12 14 16 5-YearShareholderReturn CDP Average Energy Transition Readiness Ranking IOCs Independents • Record gas production in the US has caused gas prices to decline despite low inventories and growing demand. US natural gas prices are expected to remain under pressure from increasing production of associated gas over the coming years. • Driven by strong global supply and mild winter demand, Asian LNG prices declined throughout 1Q19, reaching their lowest level in three years. Asian spot LNG prices slipped below European gas benchmarks for the first time since 2015, resulting in LNG cargo diversions to Europe. • Concerns over LNG supply loom as planned capacity additions outpace demand growth in Asia. Chinese LNG demand growth, which was the key driver in rebalancing the LNG market over the past few years, is expected to slow in 2019. - 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 90.00 - 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 02/07/2018 02/09/2018 02/11/2018 02/01/2019 02/03/2019 p/therm $/mmbtu Henry Hub Asia LNG FOB UK NBP - right hand axis
  8. 8. Brent futures Q2 | April 2019 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 8 Brent futures rose in line with spot prices throughout 1Q19. Liquidity of the futures curve falls rapidly beyond 2020. Therefore, the views of banks/brokers and consultants are considered more appropriate sources of information to be used in the determination of a long-term price assumption. 1Q19 futures data is effective as of 20 March 2019. 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 Jan-2018 Jan-2019 Jan-2020 Jan-2021 Jan-2022 Jan-2023 Jan-2024 $/bbl Historical Brent Brent futures - 4Q18 Brent futures - 1Q19 Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
  9. 9. Oil price outlook Q2 | April 2019 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 9 For both benchmarks, consultants (on average) forecast marginally higher oil prices throughout the period. Consultants focus primarily on the analysis of a long-term sustainable oil price, while the banks/brokers balance their views on the basis of current market conditions. The increase in oil prices throughout 1Q19 has directly impacted near term forecasts. In the long term, we note high relative forecasting uncertainty given the proven ability of identified risk factors to move the price significantly in a short period of time. Consultants’ forecasts result in averages of US$77.1/bbl and US$72.5/bbl vs. banks’/brokers’ averages of US$68.6/bbl and US$63.9/bbl for Brent and WTI, respectively in 2023. This data is effective as of 19 March 2019. Brent: Brokers’ and consultants’ price estimates, ranges and averages WTI: Brokers’ and consultants’ price estimates, ranges and averages Source: Bloomberg, banks’/brokers’ reports, consensus economics, consultants’ website US$68.6 US$77.1 US$63.9 US$72.5Brent: Average price forecast in 2023 WTI: Average price forecast in 2023 Bank/broker Bank/brokerConsultants Consultants 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 $perbarrel Bank/broker range Consultants range Bank/broker average Consultants average 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 $perbarrel Bank/broker range Consultants range Bank/broker average Consultants average
  10. 10. Gas price outlook Q2 | April 2019 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 10 Excluding 2019 Henry Hub prices, consultants forecast (on average) higher prices than banks/ brokers Banks’ and brokers’ view of the outlook for Henry Hub is essentially flat throughout the forecast period. In contrast, consultants’ estimates reflect a steady upward trend, reflecting a view on demand growth and production economics. The views of both banks/brokers and consultants have been adversely impacted by the reduction in gas prices noted in 1Q19. Estimates for UK NBP are scarce with only five and three data points available from banks/brokers and consultants, respectively. This data is effective as of 19 March 2019. Henry Hub: Brokers’ and consultants’ price estimates, ranges and averages UK NBP: Brokers’ and consultants’ price estimates, ranges and averages US$3.0 US$3.4 GBp51.0 GBp58.7Henry Hub: Average price forecast in 2023 UK NBP: Average price forecast in 2023 Bank/broker Consultants Bank/broker Consultants Source: Bloomberg, banks’/brokers’ reports, consensus economics, consultants’ website 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 $permmbtu Bank/broker range Consultants range Bank/broker average Consultants average 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 GBppertherm Bank/broker range Consultants range Bank/broker average Consultants average
  11. 11. Appendix Q2 | April 2019 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 11 Brent oil price estimates This data is effective as of 19 March 2019 Source: Bloomberg, banks’/brokers’ reports Source: Consultants’ websites, Oxford Economics Bank/broker 2019 (US$/bbl) 2020 (US$/bbl) 2021 (US$/bbl) 2022 (US$/bbl) 2023 (US$//bbl) High 73.3 80.0 90.0 83.0 86.0 Average 66.1 69.2 71.0 69.7 68.6 Median 65.8 70.0 70.0 70.0 67.5 Low 59.0 55.7 60.0 60.0 60.0 Consultant 2019 (US$/bbl) 2020 (US$/bbl) 2021 (US$/bbl) 2022 (US$/bbl) 2023 (US$//bbl) High 75.1 77.1 80.5 82.5 86.6 Average 67.8 70.3 72.6 74.6 77.1 Median 64.9 68.5 71.5 73.7 75.5 Low 64.5 66.0 67.4 69.6 72.2
  12. 12. Appendix Q2 | April 2019 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 12 WTI oil price estimates This data is effective as of 19 March 2019 Bank/broker 2019 (US$/bbl) 2020 (US$/bbl) 2021 (US$/bbl) 2022 (US$/bbl) 2023 (US$//bbl) High 67.0 74.0 88.0 79.0 82.0 Average 57.7 61.8 65.3 64.2 63.9 Median 56.9 60.5 63.0 63.9 64.0 Low 48.8 52.7 52.0 53.5 53.5 Source: Bloomberg, banks’/brokers’ reports Consultant 2019 (US$/bbl) 2020 (US$/bbl) 2021 (US$/bbl) 2022 (US$/bbl) 2023 (US$//bbl) High 69.6 73.4 77.0 78.2 81.9 Average 60.4 64.9 68.0 70.2 72.5 Median 57.5 63.8 67.6 71.4 72.8 Low 55.5 57.2 58.2 59.7 62.0 Source: Consultants’ websites, Oxford Economics
  13. 13. Appendix Q2 | April 2019 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 13 Henry Hub gas price estimates This data is effective as of 19 March 2019 Source: Bloomberg, banks’/brokers’ reports * Brokers have reported figures in $/mcf. We have used a conversion ratio of 1.037 for mcf conversion to MMBtu Source: Consultants’ websites, Oxford Economics Bank/broker 2019 (US$/MMBtu) 2020 (US$/MMBtu) 2021 (US$/MMBtu) 2022 (US$/MMBtu) 2023 (US$/MMBtu) High 3.4 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.3 Average 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.0 Median 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.0 Low 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 Consultant 2019 (US$/MMBtu) 2020 (US$/MMBtu) 2021 (US$/MMBtu) 2022 (US$/MMBtu) 2023 (US$/MMBtu) High 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.6 Average 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 Median 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.6 Low 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1
  14. 14. Appendix Q2 | April 2019 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 14 NBP gas price estimates This data is effective as of 19 March 2019 Bank/broker 2019 (GBp/therm) 2020 (GBp/therm) 2021 (GBp/therm) 2022 (GBp/therm) 2023 (GBp/therm) High 55.0 54.0 54.0 54.0 54.0 Average 50.8 51.0 50.8 51.5 51.0 Median 50.8 50.0 50.0 51.5 51.0 Low 47.0 49.9 48.0 49.0 48.0 Consultant 2019 (GBp/therm) 2020 (GBp/therm) 2021 (GBp/therm) 2022 (GBp/therm) 2023 (GBp/therm) High 63.8 60.8 60.0 61.2 62.4 Average 59.3 57.8 57.2 57.6 58.7 Median 60.0 60.0 59.6 58.5 58.5 Low 54.2 52.7 52.1 53.2 55.2 Source: Bloomberg, banks’/brokers’ reports * A bank/broker has reported figures in $/mcf. We have used exchange rate forecast by Jefferies for USD to GBP conversion and an mcf to mmbtu conversion ratio of 1.037 Source: Consultants’ websites, Oxford Economics * Oxford Economics has reported figures in US$/MMBtu. We have used exchange rate forecast by Oxford Economics from USD to GBP conversion ** GLJ has reported figures in US$/MMBtu. We have used exchange rate forecast by GLJ for USD to GBP conversion
  15. 15. Key contacts Q2 | April 2019 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 15 Important notice Price outlook data included in this publication is effective as of 19 March 2019. Given the rapidly evolving nature of the market and views of market participants, analysis can become quickly outdated. It should be noted that our analysis is not for the purpose of providing an independent view of the outlook for oil and gas prices. Instead, we are collating the views of market participants. Price outlook data should not be applied mechanistically. Instead, careful consideration should be given to the purpose of any value assessment with price forecasts assessed in the context of the other key assumptions, such as resources/reserves classification, production rates, discount rates and cost escalation rates together with an appreciation of the key sensitivities in any such analysis. Jeff Williams EY Global Oil & Gas Advisory Leader +1 713 750 5916 Gary Donald EY Global Oil & Gas Assurance Leader +44 20 7951 751 Derek Leith EY Global Oil & Gas Tax Leader +44 12 2465 3246 Andy Brogan EY Global Oil & Gas Leader +44 20 7951 7009
  16. 16. EY | Assurance | Tax | Transactions | Advisory About EY EY is a global leader in assurance, tax, transaction and advisory services. The insights and quality services we deliver help build trust and confidence in the capital markets and in economies the world over. We develop outstanding leaders who team to deliver on our promises to all of our stakeholders. In so doing, we play a critical role in building a better working world for our people, for our clients and for our communities. EY refers to the global organization, and may refer to one or more, of the member firms of Ernst & Young Global Limited, each of which is a separate legal entity. Ernst & Young Global Limited, a UK company limited by guarantee, does not provide services to clients. For more information about our organization, please visit ey.com. How EY’s Global Oil & Gas Sector can help your business The oil and gas sector is constantly changing. Increasingly uncertain energy policies, geopolitical complexities, cost management and climate change all present significant challenges. EY’s Global Oil & Gas Sector supports a global network of more than 10,000 oil and gas professionals with extensive experience in providing assurance, tax, transaction and advisory services across the upstream, midstream, downstream and oil field subsectors. The Sector team works to anticipate market trends, execute the mobility of our global resources and articulate points of view on relevant sector issues. With our deep sector focus, we can help your organization drive down costs and compete more effectively. © 2019 EYGM Limited. All Rights Reserved. EYG no. 001570-19Gbl BMC Agency GA 1010725 ED None This material has been prepared for general informational purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon as accounting, tax, or other professional advice. Please refer to your advisors for specific advice. ey.com

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