Your first 10, 100, 100 - Oxford Foundry, Oxford University's accelerator

YOUR FIRST 10,100,100
BE. MORE. SNAIL.
Saalim Chowdhury
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BE MORE SNAIL
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Saalim
Chowdhury
CTO Founder, Turned VC & Startup
Educator
• Angel Investor, Fund LP, Former Partner at 500
Startups, over 25 accelerators, 400+ companies.
International education lead.
• Total exit values of $200m+. Notable startups
include ScanSafe (acq. $183m by Cisco) and
Skillbridge (acq. Toptal)
• Former Senior Exec at News Corp (NYSE:NWS)
and Reach (LSE:REACH). Started career at the
Boston Consulting Group in London.
• Educated at Oxford, Cambridge and LSE. Lover
of Dogs, Sheep & Puns.
• (Welsh, not English.)
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What are the leading early-stage
indicators of success?
Focused proposition
that brings people
together
Deep empathy with
the end-user
Ideally some element
of an inflection point
A closely knit team –
yes, tight knitting >
wool quality
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Respecters
Lead
MQL
SQL
Opportunity
Proposal
Sale
Aware
ness
Conside
ration
Conver
sion
The real funnel
70%
30%
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Complexity persistence
Saalim Chowdhury www.saalim.org
Most startups have huge complexity,
knowing how to gracefully degrade is key
The best founders can simply manage complexity.
• There are more dimensions to
manage, than can be articulated
• A great founder knows how to talk
about only the ones that matter,
yet be aware of interactions with
ones that don’t.

FOCUS
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Be focused on the core problem you
are solving for
SAALIM CHOWDHURY
WWW.SAALIM.ORG

Observe. Don’t Guess! *TALK*
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Based on Customer Behavior
• How do they get to a
decision to use your
product/service?

Learn what your
customers do
• Collect the right
metrics
• E.g. Track actions
not page views.
• What people do,
rather than pages
visited.
• (GA = wasting time)
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Learn how they purchase
• B2B – Should you
bypass
procurement, get a
tiny purchase, land
and expand
• B2C – Does the
user buy? Is retail
really right?

Learn why they purchase
• B2B – I want to get promoted, I don’t want to get fired
• B2C – It gives me something to talk about, makes me
feel superior
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Selling to a village
Source: When Cultures Collide, Lewis, R.
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Startup Problems
Blind ambition causes growth blindness
Startups generally struggle by being slaves to ’their vision’ rather than the customer’s
SOURCE: GENOME STARTUP
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Know your defined superpowers
SAALIM CHOWDHURY
WWW.SAALIM.ORG
Spoiler: Other people may have it too!
You need to be able to explain to others what makes you different to others’.

Metrics that Matter
SAALIM CHOWDHURY
WWW.SAALIM.ORG
They will conflict
Different metrics will drive you do different ideas of ‘north’
What delivers value to
your investors (i.e
Equity Return)?
What’s going to drive
the growth you are
near-term looking for?
What drives value for
you.

A(N)
(IN)DECENT
PROPOSITION
Eliminating the grey areas
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Indecent Proposal
• Simple proposition: ”A stranger's offer of a
million dollars for the wife to spend the night with
him” (This was in 1993)
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DIFFERENT AUDIENCES
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY
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‘Seed’
proposition
Functional proposition
Value proposition
Investor proposition
Consumer proposition
Talent proposition
Research proposition
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Propositions
Functional Proposition
• What you actually do
Value Proposition
• What people buy into
(yes this depends on your audience)
Talking about what you do in a focus view that helps you share and shape the business
you’re trying to build.
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Propositions:
Uber - Dezzy
Functional
Propositions
• Distributed / cloud-connected
network of drivers
• Route optimisation
• Supply/Demand pricing to give
better market rates for drivers
• Payments handler
• Review system
Value Propositions
• Cashless
• Find a driver quickly
• No more putting out your hand
• Cheaper taxis – take the bus less
• Stop worrying about travel
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Propositions:
ARM - Saalim
Functional
Propositions
• Lower power
• Faster throughput
processing
• Cheaper processors as
simpler
• Simpler to
manufacture
Value Propositions
• Make mobile computing
working, batteries last longer
• Simpler coding structures
• Cheaper to buy computers
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Propositions:
Mongo DB - Dezzy
Functional
Propositions
• Tree like data
structures
• Indexed data
• JSON-like Documents
• Distributed databases
Value Propositions
• No more SQL
• Take away large data
processing complexities
• Highly performant
• Easy to scale
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Which way to follow?
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA
Function
Value
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What’s the leading early-stage
indicator of success
Focused proposition
that brings people
together
Deep empathy with
the end-user
wool quality
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THIS IS
HARD
But, no-one said it was going to
be easy.
Nothing valuable is ever easy.
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! The distance between function and value
is greater for core IP tech business than
end tech
Functional proposition Value proposition
Core Tech
Product
Intermediate / Compound
Product
End Product
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Kärt
• Gene expression platform in plants
• Production of desired property
Value Proposition
• 'Plants with Benefits'
• Sustainable production (plants need
earth, water, and sun)
• Compostable waste
• Carbon negative
“Plant biotechnology”
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Kärt
• Precision-engineered house plants
• Continuous production and dispersion
of piperine molecule
Value Proposition
• Odourless insect repellent to keep
homes and patios clear from
mosquitos, ticks and other insects
• Aesthetically pleasing
• Sustainable production and
maintenance (plants need earth,
water, and sun)
• Carbon negative
“Plant biotechnology solution for domestic insect control”
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Iwan
• Build a 'smart cochlea' which senses
forces during insertion
• Test bed to test cochlear implants
• Build database of performance with
different cochlea shapes and sizes
• Use software to recommend
• Long term: make insertion device
• Make test bed into a standalone training
device with active feedback
Value Proposition
• Maximising eligibility and outcomes of
cochlear implants by minimising
insertion trauma
• Give 'personalised medicine' surgical
recommendation based on patient CT
scan
• Provide an affordable insertion tool for
controlled, minimally traumatic insertion
• Build training device to improve training
of Cochlear implant insertion
Develop tools to improve cochlear implants to restore hearing to more severely/profoundly
deaf people
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Take
homes • #1 Comprehension
• It doesn’t have to explain the
grand vision – just the start
• It’s more advantageous to you to
let an investor or partner see
potential beyond the kernel (If
they don’t see it, 99% they won’t
work with/invest in you).
• Your value prop as a Core Tech
firm is often to an intermediary
that integrates it, as well as the
end user. Be prepared for both.
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Bill Gross’ Reasons why start-ups
succeed.
Funding - 14%
Sometimes companies
receive a great deal of
funding - maybe this
could be the factor for
success? That's not the
case. Well funded
companies only
accounted for a mere
14% success ratio.
Business Model - 24%
It's always important to
know if the company
has a clear path to
generate revenues. But
Bill notes that you can
start out without a
business model, and
create one later. He
pointed out
that YouTube didn't have
a business model.
Ideas - 28%
Bill loves big id. eas. He
even named his
company Idealab becaus
e he loved the "ah-ha"
moment of coming up
with a great idea. But
ideas only accounted for
a 28% success ratio
among the companies he
reviewed.
Team - 32%
In Bill's experience he
knew that the customer
is the true reality. During
the talk he quotes Mike
Tyson who said
"everyone has a plan
until they get punched in
the face." If a good team
can adapt to the true
reality of a demanding
customer, perhaps the
team is the truest
indicator of success for a
start up? But 'team' fell
short as well. Accounting
for only a 32% success
ratio.
SAALIM CHOWDHURY
WWW.SAALIM.ORG

SAALIM CHOWDHURY
WWW.SAALIM.ORG

Timing is key.
Timing - 42%
Accounted for whopping 42% of the
difference between success and failure,
timing is the winner. Bill noted that many
investors passed on AirBNB. Most
thinking that it was odd for a person to
rent out a room in their home to a
stranger.
Aside from a great business model, and a
great team, AirBNB had timing on its side.
Launched during the recession when
people needed extra cash. Wiping out the
stigma attached to it.
SAALIM CHOWDHURY
WWW.SAALIM.ORG

WHO YOU DO IT
FOR (TARGET
CUSTOMER)
Start at step one. No seriously.
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We need to build something first
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed
under CC BY-SA
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The distance between function and value
end tech
DISTANCE
Core Tech
Product
Product
End Product
TIME
1st Wave Product
2nd Wave Product 3rd Wave Product
4th Wave Product
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ONLY AUDIENCE* THAT
MATTERS (FOR NOW)
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY
* Singular
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Value proposition
Investor proposition
Consumer proposition
Talent proposition
Research proposition
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FRAMEWORK WARNING!
• It’s a start point to grapple with a problem, not a perfect
solution – think Engineer v Mathematician.
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Who needs you?
• Functional or Value Proposition?
(it’s usually a value prop to do this market analysis with)
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Your Decent Proposition?
Your Target Market!
i.e. all the people who
have the problem you
solve
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Doing Not Doing
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Doing
Not
Doing
Your Target Market!
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Doing
Not
Doing
Doing
Not Doing
* tree not to scale
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Doing
Not
Doing
Working
Semi-Working
Not Painful Enough
Everything is fine
Content, seeing refinement
Happy
Wanting More
Frustrated
Vocal about pain, but not painful
enough
Timewasters
Unaware / Don’t care
Uneducated
Doing
Not Doing
* tree not to scale
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Doing
Not
Doing
Doing:
Happy
Doing:
Frustrated
Not Doing:
Timewasters
Not Doing: Uneducated
Working
Semi-Working
Not Painful Enough
Everything is fine
Happy
Wanting More
Frustrated
enough
Timewasters
Unaware / Don’t care
Uneducated
* tree not to scale
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Doing
Not
Doing
Working
Semi-Working
Too Hard / Much Effort
Everything is fine
Lead
Indicator
Organisational
Perception
Happy
Frustrated
Timewasters
Uneducated
Recognised problem
Have a process to resolve
Only partially resolved
Recognised problem, no
demonstrable action, just
whining
No recognised problem, no
whining
Recognised problem
A process that’s evolved
to address problem
“We’re awesome. Everything is
awesome”
”Yeah, it’s a problem, but we
have bigger fish to fry”
“We’re trying, but it’s trying.”
“We’ve got the problem
addressed"
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WE’RE
DEALING WITH
AN OLD
SCHOOL
STARTUP
PROBLEM.
“If I had asked people what they
wanted, they would have said
faster horses.”
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND
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Doing
Not
Doing
Working
Semi-Working
Everything is fine
Lead
Indicator
Organisational
Perception
Happy
Frustrated
Timewasters
Uneducated
Horse and cart users
Occasional Rail Users
More local warehouses
Active horse and cart users
Lots of whining,
Just recently bought a horse
and cart for the first time,
No complaints
Train Owners
Horse & Cart User
“A horse and cart is a game
changer for us”
”Oh, if only we had had faster
horses, everything would be
better, but that said it’s not
going to make a difference”
“We’re kind of getting our
goods out there faster, but I
could make x more with more
speed”
“We’re actively getting our
goods faster than others”
Ford
For goods retailers
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Doing
Not
Doing
Working
Semi-Working
Everything is fine
Lead
Indicator
Organisational
Perception
Happy
Frustrated
Timewasters
Uneducated
Recognised problem
whining
whining
Recognised problem
to address problem
awesome”
addressed"
Who should
you go after first?
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The Problem
Doing:
Happy
Doing:
Frustrated
Not Doing:
Timewasters
Not Doing: Uneducated
• The biggest base of
customers don’t know of
the problem
• Don’t care about the
problem
• Don’t bother with them
(yet)… They’ll actually come
to you in time.
DON’T CHASE BIG AUDIENCES. LET THEM CHASE YOU.
* tree not to scale
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Kärt
'Plants with Benefits'
is a biotechnology company
to help homeowners
keep their property mosquito
free
with precision-engineered
insect-repelling house
plants.
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Kärt
• Precision-engineered house plants
• Continuous production and dispersion
of piperine molecule
Value Proposition
• Chemical-free natural insect repellent
to keep homes and patios clear from
mosquitos, ticks and other insects
• Aesthetically pleasing
• Sustainable production and
maintenance (plants need earth,
water, and sun)
• Carbon negative
“Plant biotechnology solution for domestic insect control”
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Doing
Not
Doing
Working
Semi-Working
Everything is fine
Lead
Indicators
Organisational
Perception
Frustrated, Wanting More
enough
Unaware / Uneducated / Don’t care
Presence of mosquito-borne
diseases, not suppressed mosquito
populations; micro-indicators:
users with inefficient repellent
solutions due to
health/economic/availability
reasons
Lack of mosquito-borne
diseases
Lack of mosquito problem
Presence of mosquito-borne
diseases, high socioeconomic
standard of living, infrastructure
for mosquito population control
“There's no mosquitos here”
”Ughh, midges/mosquitos are
so annoying but only in
summer/during evening
out/just a little bite”
“We’re trying, but nothing is
working optimally.”
“Mosquitos/ticks/midges are a
serious problem hence we use
chemicals, nets to deal with it."
Kärt
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Doing
Not
Doing
Working
Semi-Working
Everything is fine
Lead
Indicators
Organisational
Perception*
Frustrated, Wanting More
enough
Unaware / Uneducated / Don’t care
Recognised problem of
insertion trauma
Work with surgeons but no
full platform for quantifying
Developing approach for
robotic and image guided
insertion
- unsure how well this is tested
Focused on other problems, no
demonstrable action in this
field and have unsatisfactory
results
Have advanced
equipment to measure
certain aspects, but use
cadaveric cochlea –
realistic but difficult to
source and measure**
“That's not our focus, we're
make different designs ”
”We've invested in this
advanced tech that must be
good at insertion."
"It's a recognised problem and
we train surgeons in workshops
on proper use but still don't
have full data on our products"
"We have a very precise
measuring platform but our
models aren't great."
Iwan
*Note that it's a niche market with just 3 companies with 97% of the market. Spoken to 1 so far indicated by **
For Cochlear implant companies
- sensor embedded cochlea consultancy product
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PATIENCE,
EVERYTHING
IN TIME
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The distance between function and value
end tech
DISTANCE
Value proposition
(End User)
Core Tech
Product
Product
End Product
TIME
1st Wave Product 2nd Wave Product 3rd Wave Product 4th Wave Product
AUDIENCE
Niche, Desperate Small, Enhancing Mainstream, FOMO Mass, Followers
Value proposition
(Partner)
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WHAT DO
WE HAVE TO
PROVE
*NOW*
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• They key to defending your timing, is that your customers
are taking actions that make them more receptive to your
product.
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Tech Start-up Challenges
DISTANCE
S
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h
o
w
d
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u
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i
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.
o
r
g

DISTANCE
Value proposition
(End User)
Core Tech
Product
Product
End Product
Value proposition
(“Partner")
S
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i
m
C
h
o
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d
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u
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i
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.
o
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g

DISTANCE
Value proposition
(End User)
Core Tech
Product
Product
End Product
TIME
Value proposition
(Partner)
S
a
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C
h
o
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d
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i
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.
o
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DISTANCE
Value proposition
(End User)
Core Tech
Product
Product
End Product
TIME
AUDIENCE
Value proposition
(Partner)
S
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o
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DISTANCE
Value proposition
(End User)
Core Tech
Product
Product
End Product
TIME
AUDIENCE
Value proposition
(Partner)
THE YELLOW IS THE DESTINATION
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DISTANCE
Value proposition
(End User)
Core Tech
Product
Product
End Product
TIME
AUDIENCE
Value proposition
(”Partner”)
Define the BLUE = What you need to prove the time is right for.
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What’s Changing?
Doing
Not
Doing
Working
Semi-Working
Everything is fine
Lead
Indicator
Change in Indicator
Metrics/Trends
Over Time
Happy
Frustrated
Timewasters
Uneducated
Recognised problem
whining
demonstrable action, little
whining
Recognised problem
to address problem
e.g. The growth rate in number
of folks using old method is
slowing
e.g. Complaining About it has
increased x percent, or is about
too…
e.g. Number of companies with
an attempt in solving is
increasing by x% YoY
E.g., They have an problem
area improvement rate that’s
substantive
What evidence to
they need?
The growth rate in number of
folks using old method is
slowing
Enough leaders have used it
Positive Early Trials, the risk of
use is
Others have used it in market,
de-risking our use
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GETTING
YOUR
TIMING
RIGHT
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Focused proposition
that brings people
together
Deep empathy with
the end-user
wool quality
What’s the leading early-stage
indicator of success
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WHAT DO
WE HAVE
TO PROVE
*NOW*
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NOT EVERYTHING NOW
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Build!
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HOMEWORK
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Doing
Not
Doing
Working
Semi-Working
Everything is fine
Lead
Indicator
Organisational
Perception
Happy
Frustrated
Timewasters
Uneducated
Recognised problem
whining
whining
Recognised problem
to address problem
awesome”
addressed"
HOMEWORK
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Doing
Not
Doing
Working
Semi-Working
Everything is fine
Lead (Macro)
Indicator
Organisational
Perception
Happy
Frustrated
Timewasters
Uneducated
Recognised problem
whining
whining
Recognised problem
to address problem
“We’re awesome.
Everything is awesome”
”Yeah, it’s a problem, but
we have bigger fish to fry”
“We’re trying, but it’s
trying.”
addressed"
Audience Lead (Micro)
Indicator
Recognised problem
whining
whining
Recognised problem
to address problem
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d
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