With global industrial production at an all-time high, it would appear that comparatively, South Africa’s manufacturing production has stagnated over the past ten years. But the data are more nuanced than they seem.

1. With global industrial production at an all-time high, it would appear that comparatively, South Africa’s
manufacturing production has stagnated over the past ten years. This is despite intention on the part of policy
officials to stimulate growth in the sector, as well as significant currency weakness.
However, it’s worth bearing in mind that the local manufacturing sector is comprised of more than 40 distinct
industries, which allows for a wide dispersion when it comes to performance at a sub-industry level. This means
that local manufacturing figures are more nuanced than headline data suggests.
This dispersion is noticeable when comparing the performance gap between the beverage sector, which
grew by 37.5% in a decade, to the clothing sector, which declined by -35.7% over the same period. Meanwhile
communication equipment grew by a remarkable 45.8%, while food processing grew by 37%, dairy products by
20.1% and basic chemicals by 17.7%. This is in comparison to declining sub-industries like publishing (-35.9%), iron
and steel (-29.6%), cement (-25.3%) and printing (-19.3%).
The reasons for these diversions are varied, including how different industries reacted to increased competition
from international imports over the past 20 years. The sector has also been influenced by factors like prolonged
labour unrest, changes in key legislation, a lack of critical infrastructure development and the rising costs of
transport and electricity.
Meanwhile world industrial production is at an all-time high, having risen by 22% in the last decade. On a global
scale, the improvement in increased manufacturing output has been largely driven by emerging markets in Asia
and Eastern Europe, having seen growth rates of 143% and 25% over the past ten years respectively.
STANLIB is an authorised financial services provider
By: STANLIB Chief Economist, Kevin Lings
SA’s nuanced manufacturing figures