This year's SITE Energy Day was devoted to discussing the consequences of oil price fluctuations for markets and actors of the economy. The half-day conference engaged policy-oriented scholars and experts from the business community to discuss the impact of oil price fluctuations on macro fundamentals, international trade, strategies of oil cartels, strategic risk management, and opportunities for change in energy systems. Torbjörn Becker, Director of SITE, gave a talk "The volatility of oil price forecasts and its macroeconomic implications" For more information and research analysis please visit: www.hhs.se/site

1. Uncertainty of oil price forecasts
and macroeconomic implications
Torbjörn Becker
Director, Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE)
@ Stockholm School of Economics
www.hhs.se/site
torbjorn.becker@hhs.se

2. Agenda
 Global outlook and oil price
uncertainty
 Russia and CIS

3. Global outlook and oil price
uncertainty

4. Growing uncertainty(?)
IMF WEO Oct 2015

5. Risk assessment
IMF WEO Oct 2015

6. Volatile oil prices…
IMF WEO Oct 2015
CBOE crude oil
volatility index

7. … Uncertain oil price
forecasts
IMF WEO Oct 2015

8. Supply and demand projections
consistent with price forecasts?

9. Oil reserves and political
systems
7/7
6/6
1/1
1/11/1(?)
6/5
2/2
?/?
5/5
6/6
4/5
5/5
4/4
Political freedom/Civil liberty (Freedom House)

10. Russia and CIS

11. Russian roller-coaster mostly
down
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
14-01-0614-02-0614-03-0614-04-0614-05-0614-06-0614-07-0614-08-0614-09-0614-10-0614-11-0614-12-0615-01-0615-02-0615-03-0615-04-0615-05-0615-06-0615-07-0615-08-06
Ruble/USD
RTSI
Oil (Brent)

12. Russian GDP could fall
further
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Q1-2007
Q3-2007
Q1-2008
Q3-2008
Q1-2009
Q3-2009
Q1-2010
Q3-2010
Q1-2011
Q3-2011
Q1-2012
Q3-2012
Q1-2013
Q3-2013
Q1-2014
Q3-2014
Q1-2015
GDP%changesamequarterlastyear
Imports%changesamequarterlastyear
GDP
Imports

13. Total Russian trade to June
2015
Share in
2014
June 2015/
June 2014
Total 100 69
EU 48 66
APEC 27 70
CIS 12 60
ROW 13 86

14. Share of CIS countries’ exports
going to Russia
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
BELARUSUZBEKISTAN
M
OLDOVA
UKRAINE
ARM
ENIA
KYRGYZTAJIKISTANKAZAKHSTANAZERBAIJAN
TURKM
ENISTAN

15. Currency depreciations last 12
months among CIS countries
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
RUSSIAUKRAINEBELARUS
M
OLDOVA
AZERBAIJAN
KAZAKHSTAN
TAJIKISTAN
TURKM
ENISTANARM
ENIAKYRGYZ
UZBEKISTAN

16. Remittances from Russia to CIS
countries
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
TAJIKISTAN
KYRGYZREPUBLICM
OLDOVAARM
ENIAUZBEKISTAN
UKRAINEAZERBAIJAN
BELARUS
KAZAKHSTAN
TURKM
ENISTAN
Remiancesas%ofGDP2014

17. Remittances from workers in
Russia to CIS countries, recent
trends
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2012Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2013Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2014Q1
2015
%ofsamequarterpreviousyear
AZERBAIJAN, REPUBLIC OF
ARMENIA, REPUBLIC OF
BELARUS
KAZAKHSTAN
KYRGYZ REPUBLIC
MOLDOVA
TAJIKISTAN
TURKMENISTAN
UZBEKISTAN
UKRAINE
Total

18. CIS outlook (IMF WEO Oct 2015)

19. Thanks!
Torbjörn Becker
Director, Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE)
@ Stockholm School of Economics
www.hhs.se/site
torbjorn.becker@hhs.se

20. Global growth prospects